US 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Long-Term Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Forecasts a Big Move Going Forward

The US 10-year yield is at a historic juncture. There is no more room in the apex of the sideways symmetrical triangle so it is time for the yield to make a bounce or die decision. As the thick bars show, the projected move from the triangle will be 125 to 150 bips.

The breakout higher in yields would occur from 4.30% and the daily chart is trying to have an inverted H&S pattern play out. If yield moves above 4.30% and begins trending higher, the 5.55% to 5.80% range is the upside target.

Conversely, if yield fails from the triangle, and drops below 4.05%, that targets the 2.55% to 2.80% yield range on the downside.

The 20 and 50-week moving averages are lining out sideways at 4.13% to 4.24% within the apex of the triangle; use these two metrics for an early indication on which way she's breaking.

The 200-wk MA is coming up and flattening out at 3.99%. Perhaps Fed Chairman Powell, when he speaks at 2:30 PM EST today, will tell the tale forward. Here is a link to the prior 10-year yield chart explaining the inverted H&S. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:30 AM EST: As everyone waits for Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High and tell global traders how to trade, the 2-year yield is 3.57%, 5-year 3.83%, 10-year 4.24% and 30-year 4.86%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is at 67 bips.

Note Added 4:55 PM EST: Pope Powell's edicts are a nothing burger for yields. The 2-year yield is 3.57%, 5-year 3.83%, 10-year 4.24% and 30-year 4.86%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is at 67 bips.