CRB and GTX Commodity Indexes Weekly Charts; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle and Ascending Triangle Breakouts Indicating Rising Goods Inflation; Trumpflation

The commodity indexes breakout higher last week representing rising goods inflation. Right when President Trump is hanging his hat on recent inflation data that showed an ever so slight taming, zingo, inflation numbers would be expected to rise going forward. This complicates the Fed rate decision and Chairman Powell press conference on hump day afternoon, 1/28/26, and the Fed should keep rates steady with no cut. That would be the proper move considering the breakouts in the charts above. That will cause the orange head, that wants rate cuts without rebuttal, to have another hissy fit.

Bozo Biden, the Alzheimer's patient with early onset of dementia, created horrific inflation, the worst in 40 years, with the asinine glorified golf cart agenda (EV's), and push towards green energy where solar does not work on a cloudy day and windmills do not turn without wind. Sleepy Joe's idiot war on the American energy complex and disastrous decisions create terrible Bidenflation during 2021 and 2022 and then prices begin to level off in 2023 and 2024, albeit at high levels.

Keystone asked the butcher the other day if he could take a package of steaks and buy them on an installment plan? He waved a butcher knife at Keystone and said 'get lost ya bum, go buy some spam and heat it with Sterno, now Beat It'. It is ridiculous when a package of meat has a price tag of $43 on it. That cow must have been living in luxury until its demise.

Anyhoo, King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, is elected in November 2024 promising lower prices on day one. Maybe he forgot what he said like any 80-year old codger would? The funny thing is that inflation did pare back after he came into office in January a year ago, into the springtime. Donnie was on that like flies on sh..., well, you know, and he proclaimed that he solved inflation and all should bow before him in his honor. There was a lot of sideways chop with inflation through the summertime into Fall but now you can see the end result (goods inflation heading higher).

The charts above do not portend well for Donnie, especially when he plans on hitting the campaign trail to brag about the economy and lower inflation ahead of the mid-term elections in only 9 months. Inflation data should rise going forward so if you are bragging that you stopped inflation, you will look like an orange-headed fool.

The GTX chart has an ascending triangle feel to it that is a bullish pattern. Laying out a couple of different triangles and using the vertical line on the end of the triangle as the projected gain, the pattern targets 4250-4350 now at 42 hundo.

The CRB chart shows a textbook sideways symmetrical triangle pattern. Price breaks out at 305. The vertical side is 30 points so 335 is the target. If you use a vertical side that is more like the touches in March and May, let's say 330-335 is the upside target for the breakout. Again, this means more goods inflation that will ripple through into overall inflation.

The CRB components are crude oil, natty gas, heating oil, RBOB gasoline, sugar, cotton, coffee, cocoa, orange juice, corn, soybeans, wheat, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, live cattle, and lean hogs.

The GTX components are WTIC and Brent crude oil, natty gas, heating oil, RBOB gasoline, sugar, cotton, coffee, cocoa, orange juice, corn, soybeans, wheat, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, lead, zinc, live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs. GTX has more base metals so its recent Trumpflation erection is bigger than the CRB's. May the Schwartz be with you.

Clearly, the rise in commodities indexes lately is due to precious metals such as gold and silver, and base metals such as silver and copper. Gold is bought as King Donnie creates more daily drama and trouble with the Fed and with allies. It would be better if he kept his mouth shut about a lot of things but, that's Our Donnie. Base metals rise on the AI hype and data center build-out. Silver is a twofer with one foot in precious and the other in base, so it is the favorite girl at the dance.

A less than attractive man with one eye was sad since it was hard to find a date. He had a wood eye placed into the socket and it looked really good so he had more confidence. There was a big dance in town so he attended hoping to meet a nice young lady, and across the room he saw a not too attractive girl, with a big nose, so big that she would be rich if it was stuffed full of nickels. She was perfect for him. He mustered up courage and walked over to ask the girl, that was also lonely, if she wanted to dance. He was so hoping that she would say yes. "Would you like to dance?"   "Would I !! would I !!!"   "Big nose!! Big nose !!!"

Anyhoo, keep an eye out for Trumpflation, coming to a theater near you. The Theatre of the Absurd. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.