The Federal Reserve Follies and Fed Chairman Candidate Contestant Reality Television Show

By K E Stone (Keystone)

King Donnie continues his search for the next Federal Reserve chairman. Call it the Federal Reserve follies for the last half-year and more. Every day Donnie must deliver a new episode for his reality television show presidency. That is why he opens 52 boxes at once, like a little rich kid, so there are plenty of side plots and action so the camera can be shined on his orange head every day sometimes several times per day.

One of the key subplots in the Donnie tv show is the search for the new Federal Reserve chairman. Chairman Powell's term expires on 5/15/26 so he is a short-timer now with only about four months and change remaining in his tenure. Trump puffs his chest and bloviates this year that he wanted Powell out of office immediately because he would not lower rates fast enough to goose the economy and stock market with easy money.

Trump is a real estate guy; he loves debt. Donnie does not care about the potential for steady, or increasing, inflation due to easy monetary conditions; it is all about the short-term and here and now. The mid-term elections are in November when the people typically flip control of either the House or Senate to the other corrupt political party. Trump wants lower rates now since it will take time to filter into the economy to make everyone happy when they walk to the voting booth in only 10 months. If the economy is not picking up, with lower inflation, with plenty of jobs, by July 4th Independence Day, when Donnie will be leading the country with the 250th celebrations, the retrumplicans will be in trouble. Will anyone be in a festive mood?

Trump promised to bring prices down on day one of his presidency that is another failed goal like ending the Ukraine War in 24 hours. He knew it was campaign lies but they worked since he got elected. They all lie so it makes no difference. The orange head can cover himself with a loin cloth bragging that a dozen eggs are cheaper and oil/gasoline prices have dropped, but what else ya got? People cannot afford to live as Donnie jet sets around the world making deals for himself and grifter family.

That is likely why he kisses Dictator Putin's dupa daily because he knows the war will eventually end and he wants the Trump family grift to be in Russia after that for decades to come handling multi-billion real estate ventures. Russia is a huge land mass. Donnie likely figures it will be a legacy to his family and the Trump name while common American citizens are riding in the back of his bus.

Anyhoo, back to the Fed, hey stupid people, did you wonder why there are only five candidates for the Fed chairman follies? That is a thin group that Trump has to pick from but there are many highly-qualified people that would like to, and could, serve as chairman but want no part of the daily Donnie prima donna drama. Prima Donnie. That is funny.

The five names on the Fed chairman list are Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock Manager Rick Rieder. Bowman lives up to her namesake and bows-out so then there were four. What silliness. While the candidate contestant tv drama continues, Trump throws in a plot-twist, and makes it clear that he wants Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as chairman. The spectacle is a joke and only orchestrated to keep the American people watching the presidential television reality show, and especially the orange head, daily.

Bessent has made it clear that he does not want the chairman job. Of course he does not. It is stupid to expect him to take the job. By refusing, Bessent also makes it clear that he is moving on from the Trump administration after the November election. Bessent is looking at things from the perspective that he will serve another year and then he is ditching the Whitehouse popsicle stand. A treasury secretary serves at the pleasure of the president so Bessent could leave tomorrow or anytime; it is not a term position. He has freedom on when to quit.

The Federal Reserve chairman job is a four-year gig. Use your common sense. Why would Bessent sign-up and commit his life for four years to argue with a bunch of academics sitting around a conference room table? Bessent will be gone this time next year and likely start-up another hedge fund and immediately bring in hundreds of millions of dollars. What path do you think he is going to take? And Donnie is a lame-duck with only three years remaining (Bessent would still be stuck in the chairman job for another year after that).

Kevin Hassett is the inside man, literally, at the Whitehouse each day orange-nosing (versus brown-nosing) the president. He has giddy-up in his step the last couple months beaming with pride that it appears he is Donnie's top choice for Federal Reserve chairman. Over the last couple weeks, however, Trump appears a bit more hesitant, so additional meetings are scheduled with the other remaining candidates.

Despite Hassett's prior experience at the Fed, and his economics and markets experience no one can take away, he is perceived as a kiss-*ss that will do whatever his master King Donnie tells him to do. Trump is doing a great job at destroying Federal Reserve credibility. Hassett now becomes a tricky choice since he will be immediately perceived as Trump's little lackey.

So the prima donna Donnie drama silliness continues. Creating more television drama, Trump proclaims just before Christmas that anyone that disagrees with him will not head the Federal Reserve. King Donnie declares that Powell is a "numbskull" and a "major loser." Trump is an 80-year old child. It is funny to watch. Which candidate will sell their soul to be Donnie's little b*tch for the next three years?

Waller was Trump's initial focus and pick but Donnie changes his mind like a teenage girl changes her outfits. Waller wanted lower rates a couple-three months ago but has since tamed that view so that does not fit the Donnie Trump pedal to the metal lower for rates scenario he wants to play out ahead; inflation be damned.

Rick Rieder is a funny selection. He is a bigtime Wall Street guy that does not plan to be Donnie's little boy for the next three years of his life. Rieder likely stayed in the game to increase his name recognition and receive free publicity for BlackRock. The interesting sidebar is that Rieder was invited to the Whitehouse, in the days ahead, and that was before Trump basically saying that whoever he picks is going to be his little b*tch, so will Rieder even show up to the meeting after that comment? If so, we can call him subservient Rick.

Then there is Kevin Warsh. He championed common sense 15 years ago, like many of us, when it was the last chance to save the crony capitalism system, but does he sing from a different hymn sheet these days? Dovishness and Warsh do not seem to go together since he was more on the fiscal hawk side. Maybe he changed over the years? Did he? Maybe he has a continued lust for power and wants to get back into the game again even if he has to play submissive to Donnie Trump? It is interesting.

Or is Warsh sly like a fox telling King Donnie what he wants to hear to get the gig, and then simply doing what he thinks is best for the country when he is the new chairman, be it lowering, or even raising rates? Once he started a four-year term, it would be difficult for Trump to oust him (there has to be cause like an actual criminal offense). Warsh is the interesting and mysterious candidate, perhaps a Manchurian Candidate, but his game may be for good and wanting to get into the key position to help rebuild America's fiscal house the right way, not the Donnie way? It was strange when Warsh's name was announced as a candidate since he does not fit that typical kiss-*ss mold.

Trump is no dummie and he can read people well. That is why he wants to talk to these folks in person to feel the vibe. Trump will likely not trust Warsh and not pick him. Hassett is the kiss-*ss that starts with zero credibility as chairman if he is selected. There is no one remaining folks. It is a matter of whether Donnie will trust Waller to perform his bidding and that will likely not be the case. Waller is a smart economics and markets guy and will not want to toss his reputation in the trash can dirtying it up as Trump's errand boy. After it is said and done, Donnie will likely pick Hassett and start a campaign to paint him in an independent light even though everyone knows he is Trump's lackey.

For the country, Warsh and Waller would both be good picks. Hassett is compromised, Bessent already plans to fly the coop by this time next year, and Rieder simply likes the notoriety and will be able to charge more for speaking fees in the future. This is the picture of America's crony capitalism system, folks. It is what it is.

Chairman Powell's term as chairman ends 5/15/26 but he can remain a Fed board member until January 2028 when that term expires. He will not. Dollars to doughnuts that Powell will be out that door so fast in May all you will see is the swinging screen door.

The next FOMC meeting days that may provide changes to the rates are 1/28/26 (a month away), 3/18/26, 4/29/26 and 6/17/26. Thus, Powell will have his farewell speech ready to go for the late April meeting that will be his send-off after eight years (two four-year terms) in the top job. The new Fed chairman will conduct the first meeting in mid-June. The economy will already be on its path by then, good or bad, and will impact voter decisions in the Fall.

The Fed follies have been a ridiculous show of Donnie Trump stagecraft, showmanship and theater. Isn't it sickening? Do you waste your life following such dribble? In the summertime, Trump and Bessent proclaim that a new Fed chair will be named before September to put pressure on Powell to cut rates. Then instead of September, the new pick for chairman will be announced in the Fall, then it was by Thanksgiving, then before Christmas, then by the end of the year, do you suckers follow this daily dribble and trash?, if so, God Bless you, and the latest is that the pick for the new Fed chairman will be announced after the first of the year. This is likely a lie, too, since Trump still has to conduct the interviews. It is hard to keep the lies straight and once someone starts lying in life, it is difficult for them to stop.

Trump calls the Fed chairman "Too-Late" Powell because Donnie believes that he is lowering rates too slowly and is late to the game in stimulating the economy (an economy that Trump brags about claiming it is the best ever and the stock market is at record highs; if so, why do you need the cuts, Jack?). Donnie is "Two-Week" Trump. Every answer to a question is that he will have a response and information in two weeks but that deadline is never met. Such is Trumpworld, a circus like Wally World.

More fun will begin soon. When Trump knights the candidate be it Hassett, Waller or Warsh, will King Donnie then apply more pressure to Powell to have him quit immediately and allow the new chairman to takeover? Powell is not going anywhere. The crony capitalism filth system degrades society into a 'what have you done for me lately' mentality. It is disrespectful to ask Powell to leave a couple months before his eight-year term ends. Powell is a reserved man but no doubt he wishes he could tell Trump where he could put his calls for resignation.

So the Federal Reserve follies, the chairman candidate contestant reality television show, is coming to the season-ending finale. It is likely a pick between Hassett and Waller, or if a new candidate surfaces that would be par for the course in the Hall of Mirrors in Trump World. The prima donna Donnie drama continues with Two-Week Trump hassling Too-Late Powell for a few more months.

The orange head will likely not pick the new chairman before the FOMC rate meeting at the end of January, so the next deadline by Two-Week Trump will be that he will announce the new Fed chairman in February. It is actually getting close now to making a mandatory decision about the chairman job because a couple-three months are needed to allow for a smooth transition. Can't Believe We're Here. Not sure what the point is.