Sweet NVIDIA, the AI chip phenom, we hardly knew ye. It was fun while it lasted, honey. What an impressive run from one buck in 2016 to two hundo this year a +20,000% gain. Investing $10K in NVDA back in 2016, trusting in Jensen that wears a black leather jacket instead of fleece, would have given you $2 million dollars today. That is enough to sing a Johnny Paycheck song. Take This Job and Shove It. Even a grand to NVDA a decade ago would have put over $200K in your pocket now. Alas, all good things must come to an end.
The AI hype is going strong. Everybody and his brother wants in on the action. The Uber driver and doorman at the hotel both placed their entire paychecks into NVDA stock last week. The people on television say you cannot go wrong (as they pump and dump). The Blackwell chips are flying off the shelves faster than doughnuts at a Weight-Watchers convention. Lying communist China says they will buy the orphan H200 chips. The Rubin chip is on the way and it runs hot like the others so you can heat a Reuben sandwich on top.
Keystone previously posted the NVDA weekly chart describing the November neggie d top. Here is the link. NVDA continued lower but it really has been sideways for the last month. NVDA was goosed last week on the daily and weekly charts by the news of a licensing deal with chip startup Groq (not Grok). Analysts proclaim that the deal increases NVIDIA's dominance in AI. Dominance? Sounds kinky. Who's on top? All that the deal means is that there is another company wanting to join the AI financial circle jerk. Ante up.
The charts incorporate all information known, and even unknown since price and volume do not lie, about a ticker or index at any given time. The only savior for NVIDIA now would be some type of super positive news that can give it some life for a few more months. Barring that, NVDA is in trouble and topped-out on a monthly basis. This means that a multi-month down move will begin any time forward so 2026 will be a far sh*ttier year for NVIDIA than anyone expects.
Let's dissect the chart above. No not like a frog. Do they still dissect frogs in high school? Probably not since everything is baby-fied these days. Many decades ago, in 10th grade, we were split in groups of five that circled around each lab table. The frog, smelling of formaldehyde, was stretched out in front of us ready for a brave student to begin the cutting and examination of organs. We did not wear gloves. The girls were squeamish so Keystone gladly handled the scalpel wanting to look macho for pretty Vanessa that was luckily in his group.
Anyhoo, the chart is ugly. It displays overbot RSI and stochastics agreeable to a pullback on the monthly basis. The rising red wedge pattern is bearish. The upper standard deviation band is violated so a trip to the middle band at 143, and rising, and even lower band at 83, and rising, are on the table for the months ahead. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon desperately needing a mean reversion lower.
The red lines show the negative divergence sealing the fate of NVDA on the monthly basis. The current candlestick is December, with only 3 trading days remaining in the year, so it will be cast in concrete on Wednesday. That Wednesday chick is real popular nowadays with the teeny-bopper crowd. Great to see them grooving on an old Cramps song, Goo Goo Muck. So watch the chart closely next Friday as 2026 trading begins and the following week when a new monthly candlestick will be underway. You can check to make sure the neggie d remains in play as does the top for NVDA on the monthly basis.
The down candlestick in red is November and if you go back one more it is the October top. Price makes the matching high but note the MACD line that also made a higher high; it was still long and strong and wanted to see another matching or higher high in price ahead. Typically, this behavior needs a jog move (down one month up the next) to set the chart up with universal neggie d across all indicators including the MACD line that means the stock is toast.
So price oscillates in November and makes the matching high so the indicators can be checked again to see if the MACD line is negtively diverging away from price (sloping down). That tiny red line shows that it is. Stick a fork in it. It's cooked. All the indicators are neggie d as price made the new high. The only thing that can save it is super happy talk. The announcement the other day created joy but will it be enough to goose price far higher. It already seems like that happy talk is priced-in.
The Aroon shows that nearly all the NVDA bulls continue to believe that the stock will go up forever, and comically 100% of the NVDA bears believe that the stock will go up forever. Everyone is partying on one side of the boat scoffing down Blackwell and Rubin chips but guests are starting to complain that their mouth is burning because the chips are too hot. Oh no, someone just chipped their tooth on the H200 chip that should have not been in that bowl to begin with since it is stale.
Lots of fun is ahead for NVDA that is topped-out on the long-term monthly basis and beginning a multi-month spankdown barring any super-duper happy talk in the days ahead. Plan accordingly if you own it or if you made all that dough on the way up. Keystone is not holding NVDA long or short right now and has no plans to play it. The charts will be watched to see if a shorting opportunity presents itself on the hourly and daily charts. Sorry to report the bad news, sweet NVIDIA. We hardly knew ye. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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