The choppy sideways pig slop continues this year. The 3-month range of 7300-7600 gives way to a gap up move creating an island (green lines and orange circle). The gap is 7600 to 7630. The island exists above 7630. If price comes down to 7630 and then collapses back down through the gap to 7600 or lower heading lower, that is an island reversal pattern. The other outcome is price simply slumping lower and filling the gap at 7600-7630.
The SPX drops down to 7639 on Thursday, in the neighborhood of the island base at 7630 and stabbing at the 20-day MA support at 7644. However, the bears do not have the strength to pull price any lower and stocks recover on Friday as alcoholic traders run to happy hour. Thus, the S&P 500 remains on the island deciding if she should rally, or collapse down through the gap for the island reversal, or slump slowly lower and fill the gap on the way to lower prices. Choose your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it, as William Bell sings.
If the 20-day MA support at 7644 fails, and then becomes resistance, price will then seek the 50-day MA at 7541 to test that support. The orange gaps will all need filled going forward. The big up days in April and May occurred as the Iran War was thought to resolve and a ceasefire was on tap. Also, the ongoing AI and semiconductor hype keeps stocks elevated. The Iran War is a bigger mess now, with Baron Bessent set to deliver the bigtime economic sanction package against Iran tomorrow. Why does King Chump insist on embellishing every little thing that occurs? Trumpski proclaims that the sanctions are supposed to be the most harsh economic actions ever taken in the history of man. Shut up already. The diarrhea of the orange mouth cannot stop running.
Donnie brags that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Idiot. He is bringing ships through in the dead of night, with transponders turned off, with full US military escort, so they are not hit by missiles and drones. Insurers want nothing to do with that hot mess; you cannot insure a ship that is shutting off its transponders. Further, does Trumpski plan to be in place forever carrying out that task? Chump started a war that he does not know how to finish. The regime has to be eliminated in Iran but the soldiers and associated families and sympathizers total about 10 million of the 90 million Iran population. Donnie is in way over his orange head. He never understood what he was getting into. What is your plan, idiot?
Setting the stupid comment about the strait open aside, Donnie Chump boasts that 1000 ships have passed in the last couple months. At 60 days, that is about 17 ships per day. The actual estimates are 5 to 12 but let's give the little orange head his 17 ships per day. Before Donnie started the Iran War, there were from 130 to 150 ships passing per day. Do you see how they use the big 1000 number to make it sound like everything is normal? Do you understand how your mind is manipulated daily? There should have been 8400 ships that passed through the strait in that time period not the measly 1000.
On top of these embellishments and lies, US Central Command says 660 million barrels of crude have flowed through the strait since early May. Okay, that is 120 days that equates to 5.5 million barrels of crude through the strait each day under the cover of darkness with US military escort. 20 million barrels flowed through the strait before Trumpski started his war.
The reason oil prices have not gone hog wild higher is that oil is making its way through the strait and the pipelines across land are running at full capacity. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that is why Keystone's entry door card for the Kiwanis Club no longer works, about 5 to 10 barrels are coming out of the strait and 2 to 4 million extra barrels through the pipelines make up for about one-half of the losses through the Strait of Hormuz due to King Donnie Chump's Iran War. Talking broad general numbers, oil runs from 60 to 120, then comes back due to Donnie happy talk, and now likes it around 85 to 90-ish right in the middle (oil supply through the strait was at 20 million barrels, then down to zero, now back up to about 10 million). It makes sense for a simple mind. Simple Man. Seeing the Bic lighters during a concert was so much better than the garbage smartphones nowadays. All that you need is in your soul.
The constant daily oil talk detracts away from the many other products that flow through the strait now in short supply including fertilizer. Trumpski brags about looking out for the farmers but the tariffs and his other measures that bring on higher costs, and the constant uncertainty in markets, are screwing the farmers. Now socialist King Donnie, that has created corporate socialism, is playing with beef prices decreeing what meat should cost from his throne. Lower prices means farmers make less income. What a mess.
Donnie Chump is the modern-day Neville Chamberlain kissing dictator's butts while screwing allies and marching the planet towards WW III. Donnie is a well-dressed aristocrat like Neville wanting the camera to follow him everywhere. Trumpski is kissing North Korea's *ss as they provide drones and troops to Russia to help kill more Ukrainian women and children.
King Donnie will surely send messages to the markets this afternoon trying to manipulate the futures trading that begins at 6 PM EST. The world is losing faith and confidence in the US as the debt surpasses $40 trillion with Trump spending money like a drunken sailor. The yields on the long-end (30-year) are running higher so Bessent stepped in last week to manipulate the yields lower and he said he will keep doing more. What a tangled web we weave as the crony capitalism system is now in its final throes. Capitalism only exists in theoretical business text books due to human greed (corruption) and non-transparency. It's not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.
It is surprising that no one has hyped the 'three peaks and a domed house' pattern for the SPX daily chart as shown by the brown peaks. Keystone does not put any confidence in these types of patterns but they are interesting to follow nonetheless. That final peak on the right should be lower in the neighborhood of the other peaks, and when price dropped late July, it should have taken out the June lows, but hey, trying to match a complex pattern like this exactly is a fool's errand. However, the general pattern exists and the domed house just formed and is giving way. It is a bearish pattern and typically marks an important historic top such as 1987 and 1929. There will likely be some stories on the three peaks and a domed house now that Keystone mentioned it.
The Iran War and Strait of Hormuz drama, along with the ongoing AI and chip hype, are sending the stock market to and fro each day. The action may become more wild since the mid-term elections are only 10 weeks away. Election Day is 11/3/26. US elections are always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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