Monday, February 15, 2021

ARKK ARK Innovation ETF Weekly and Daily Charts; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violations; Price Extended




ARK Investment founder Cathie Wood is a rock star. A Superstar. Catherine hsa come a long way since high school and now she is a Superstar. Traders and investors are throwing money at Wood. Everyone laughed when she touted TSLA but no one is laughing anymore. She has the hot hand so everybody and his brother are wheelbarrowing over mountains of cash telling her to invest the dough.

Wood is hot on TSLA also bitcoin so she is looking like an Einstein. She has recommended TDOC, TREE, PRLB, TWOU and Z. Now she is buying drugs. Also buying ISRG for ARKQ, that is an odd ticker, if it ever goes bankrupt it would be called ARKQQ. Wood buys REGN for ARKG and SHOP for ARKW. ARKK is another fund. Investors are seeking an ark, Noah's Ark, or in this case Cathie's Ark, for safety and security, but the unruly ship is taking on water, and unknowingly headed for the reef.

ARKK is cooked. Stick a fork in it. Hopefully, Cathie will enjoy her Superstar status today, on Presidents Day, with the markets closed. There is super tough sledding ahead for Wood and the team on the daily and weekly charts.

Both the daily and weekly charts are topping out with universal negative divergence (red lines) the most powerful force in technical analysis, however, the MACD on the weekly is still long and strong. ARKK will top out any time right now due to the universal neggie d across all indicators and will be spanked lower in the daily time frame. The neggie d showing on the weekly chart will help create the weakness in the daily time frame.

After a few days of downside or week or so, price will want to come back up because of the long and strong MACD on the weekly chart. When it comes back up in the weekly time frame, say a week or two out, the MACD will be neggie d and the top is in on the weekly basis. Watch the weekly chart after the opening bell tomorrow morning. The new candelstick will be a matching price high so the indicators can be compared and if you see the MACD sideways or a touch lower, as that thin red line shows, ARKK would be toast right now, as of tomorrow, in the weekly as well as daily time frames, and price will begin dropping into a multi-week decline.

Thus, you see the writing on the wall; git while the gittin' is good. Git outta Dodge. Bulls have momentum on their side so you will have to check at how the weekly chart proceeds this week. Look at the massive volume candlestick on the buy side last week. Reddit, Robinhood and the folks at Naive Trading, are tripping over each other buying ARKK and all its derivatives and individual plays. Bitcoin, too. You know how this story ends folks.

Placing the neggie d to one side, the charts are overbot agreeable to a pullback in both time frames. Both charts have tagged their upper bands so the middle band at 147 and lower band at 135 are on the table on the daily and the middle band at 119 and lower band at 78 are in play on the weekly, which would be a huge haircut losing over half its value.

Price is extended above the moving average lines requiring a mean reversion lower. The ADX on the daily chart is about to fall out of the pink box which means the strong trend higher in the daily time frame is over. The ADX on the weekly is up in the stratosphere and negatively diverges as price makes the last high, so that ADX line will be moving lower. The ADX still says the upside is a strong trend on the weekly chart. The charts will have to be monitored as the daily spanks price lower. People are foaming at the mouth to hand Superstar Cathie some dough. In fact they are throwing money at Wood as if they are rose petals being thrown at Cleopatra's feet. Wood is a Suppa-staaaarrrrr!

The Aroon green lines are pegged into the ceiling while the red lines are smashed into the basement. The four red circles are all bearish since they are at their maximum bullish levels right now. All are agreeable to take a walk on the dark side going forward.

Everything is bearish in those two charts. Here you go. Here is a tiny fig leaf. It is the MACD on the weekly chart. Hold it in front of your privates as the bell rings tomorrow and you will find out if you can still cover yourself with that fig leaf, or if it crumbles away, and then folks are left with a horrible sight that may damage retinas.

Short any pops going forward but respect the momentum. Taking a quick look at the other tickers above, they are set up similarly. ARKG is a cleaner short because it shows its MACD on the weekly chart already neggie d. The multi-week top is in for ARKG right now; this is the Genomic Revolution Multi-Sector ETF. Here is a link to the Revolution that looks and sounds the best. ARKW has still got some game; you can see the MACD on the daily chart long and strong so this one is stronger than the others. It is the Web ETF. 

TDOC can be shorted on the daily chart right now. Weekly chart is likely sideways for a while trying to maintain the elevated prices so do not stick around any short trade too long. TREE is also set up to drop in daily time frame. PRLB, TWOU and Z are psycho stocks so no need to play them. ISRG may set up as a short in 2 to 4 weeks. REGN may set up as a long in 2 to 4 weeks. SHOP may stay sideways buoyant for a few weeks. Wood is also into 3-D printing with PRNT which is a moon shot. That is craziness. DDD and SYSS are in that 3-D printing arena and they are moon shots over the last few months. 

The only attractive plays out of all that is ARKG short now for a multi-week pullback. ARKK is also a short going forward and will begin a multi-week pullback probably a couple days after you see ARKG roll over which should be now. The ARKG charts would have been better to post but they are the same above only instead of that fig leaf of positivity with the MACD, on ARKG the MACD is neggie d so it is cooked, and the chart is right now at the Wile E Coyote moment. There is nothing there to hold ARKG up anymore.

Keystone does not have any positions in any ticker above long or short but will look to short some ARKG tomorrow. Congrats to Cathie Wood for her stellar, and superstar, performance but right now everyone is huddled back stage not knowing what to do for an encore. Mischievous Mary Katherine is about to pull the fire alarm. The crowd is becoming unruly demanding a better and longer performance from ARK Investments but coffee just spilled over the script. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 2/21/21: ARKG drops -4% last week. ARKK -3%. TSLA -4.3%. Keystone did not have a chance to enter short and is not in any of Cathie's plays. You could see that the ARKG was prime for a spankdown. The multi-week slide is only beginning, things have a lot further to fall. Wood is in Palantir now. The PLTR chart is a baby technical-wise since the moving averages have not yet developed. Keystone was hoping he could supply Cathie with some good news but all he can offer are these wet blankets. No wonder he is never invited to parties. PLTR received a smackdown on the daily from the early February top, the daily chart is stumbling sideways now. That 24-25 level is a neckline for a H&S that has a double-head now or it may even end up as a right shoulder. PLTR is in trouble if 25 fails. On the PLTR weekly, the matching price highs before and after the start of February comes with negative divergence across the indicators. PLTR would be expected to drop, lose 25 and likely fail to 10. Therer would be hope if price refuses to let go of 23-25. If it does everyone will likely sell the stock. Last week was its highest volume week ever almost twice the prior weeks high in volume and it was downside volume. They were selling. Keystone will not play PLTR.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/26/21, at 6:25 AM EST: ARKK drops from 159.70 to a low at 126.81, a -20.6% crash, in only 6 days. ARKG crashes -20.8%. TSLA crashes -31.2% in 19 days. One-third of Tesla's value gone at the drop of a hat. PLTR is sold off hard with the rest of the market.

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