Tuesday, February 16, 2021

XLK Technology Sector ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended



The tech sector, represented by XLK, COMPQ and NDX is topping-out. What's that?! Blasphemy, I say! That's blasphemy! Greta grimaces and asks 'how dare you insult the Holy of Holies tech industry? How dare you?'

Tech has been the baby darling for many years. You can see the chart going from the bottom left to the upper right and it is like that for prior years. XLK prints an all-time record high at 138.68. Technology has changed all our lives, probably more for the worse than better, except for niche areas such as medical breakthroughs or space exploration. The social internet stuff is out of control but alas, everyone will have to chart their own path forward.

XLK is topped out. The MACD is trying to sneak higher again so that has to be watched. There is so much money floating around all over the place stocks keep floating higher and higher, and higher. Here comes Aunt Nellie. Hello....hey, ho, what the...Aunt Nellie! She almost knocks Keystone out of the way, he twists an ankle on the uneven pavement, and as she barrels by yells out that she is in a hurry to see the broker in town, Fred Chisler that has the office next to the laundromat. Nellie says her entire life savings is in her patent leather purse and she needs and wants to buy AAPL stock as fast as possible like the guy on television told her to. She refuses to miss-out on the stock market party any longer. All her worries about retirement will disappear. Every top sees the bag holdin' sucka's stupidly pouring their hard-earned money into stocks. The beat goes on.

The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since the collapses from such heights can be quite dramatic. Stochastics are overbot and the RSI teases overbot. The negative divergence is across all indicators so price is out of gas. XLK floats higher now on all the euphoric hype in the market. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 125 and lower band at 111 are on the table.

If long and enjoying lots of profits in XLK, get out. Short-sellers can enter XLK now. Keystone does not hold any XLK now long or short and the last trade in it was probably about a year ago. Keystone is long QID which is the leveraged 2x inverse ETF for the tech sector. QID goes up twice as much when the tech sector (COMPQ or XLK) is dropping BUT it drops twice as much if the tech sector is rising. PSQ is the 1x inverse tech ETF that goes up one for one if the tech sector drops BUT goes down one for one as the tech sector continues to rise. If you want to dabble on the short side but it is something new for you, consider PSQ as a ride on the wild side. If tech stocks roll over for the next few weeks as expected, PSQ would rally. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 2/21/21: Whoopsies daisies. XLK loses -2% last week to 136.05. That should only be the beginning.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/26/21, at 6:09 AM EST: XLK drops from 139.24 to a low at 128.61, -7.6%, in only five days.

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