TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

The TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield chart was posted a week or so ago, it all becomes a blur after a while. The neggie d is still developing because the MACD has not rolled over as yet on a new high in yield. Yield pops from 1.08% to 1.11% so traders shorting notes and bonds, that want yields to move higher, are walking around with their chests puffed-out saying yields are moving up with the stock market and that is the path to rainbows and blue skies.

Hold off on the suntan lotion, sport. The 10-year yield continues to top-out in the weekly time frame. The top is in as soon as the MACD goes neggie d. The other indicators are clearly in negative divergence (red lines) and create the sogginess in yield over the last couple weeks. Now the MACD will re-exert itself and that gas it still has left in the fuel tank, or it may only be fumes, should buoy yield back to the highs over the last three weeks which is in this 1.11% area. As the yield keeps printing matching or higher highs, verify that the MACD line goes neggie d, if so, the top is in and yields will drop (Treasuries will be bot).

If the week ends and the MACD is not neggie d, this choppy sideways action in yield will likely continue for a week or two. The stock market should continue rolling over so it would figure that money will chase into Treasuries and drive yield lower. The dollar rises which pushes stocks lower.

The rising wedge is ominous and tells you when the down move comes it may have a quick component to it. This would be consistent with stocks nose-diving as well. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 0.90% and lower band at 0.64% are on the table. That 50-day MA may need a back kiss and it is 0.78% and dropping. That lower deviation band is rising. There may be a confluence of technicals converging in that 0.70%-ish level which would be a logical downside target, say 0.68% to 0.72%, on the weekly basis.

If you remain a bear on notes and bonds and want prices to continue lower and yields higher, you need to see that MACD line remain sloping higher and in fact gain strength to possibly pull the RSI higher. Note how the RSI did not reach overbot territory, only the stochastics did. This is the outcome the Treasury bears need to keep sending yields higher but even if this scenario plays out, yields probably will not move all that much higher, it would likely only extend the time that the top takes to place rather than a drastic move higher in yield. Instead of the top in yields occurring now or anytime over coming days or week or two, the top in yields would occur say 2 to 4 weeks out.

Yield will top out any day ahead so be prepared. TBT is the ETF that moves the same way so that is setting up for a short play. TLT is the inverse of the yield, so it reflects the note price, and it is setting up to begin a multi-week rally. TNX and TBT are set up for a multi-week decline. Keystone has no position in this arena right now. The expectation forward is dollar up, stocks down, commodities down, gold down with Treasury prices up yields down. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:52 AM EST: Treasury yields are; 2-year 0.11%, 5-year 0.44%, 10-year 1.11%, 30-year 1.89%. The 2-10 spread is 100 basis points. 5's-30's is 145 bips. US Dollar index, DXY, dixie, or USD, is at 91.13 moving higher. Everybody and his bro is short the US dollar so the buttocks cheeks are tightening on trading floors everywhere. Comically, a dollar short squeeze is what traders should be worried about instead of GME, AMC or silver. Gold 1834. Silver 27.53. Copper slips -0.7% keep an eye on this. VIX is at 27.39 at its pivot point which is the 200-day MA at 27.38. Volatility pivots here and the US stock market will go in the opposite direction. Oil +2.7%. S&P futures are up +34. Punxsutawney Phil is the local, now famous, groundhog prognosticator in these parts (the Laurel Highlands of western Pennsylvania). Each year he, er his handlers, announce whether there will be 6 more weeks of winter, or not. Phil saw his shadow an hour ago at daybreak so that means 6 more weeks of winter it will be; no early spring.