The 2018 trading year is coming to a close. The stock market is bludgeoned in Q4. The Keystone Speculator is the only Wall Street analyst to accurately forecast the S&P 500 this year.
Many analysts and strategists predicted the SPX to end this year above 3K. Humorously, after the big January and September run-ups, the analysts raised their targets even higher with a few calling for the SPX to end the year at 3200 and 3300. One year ago, the Keystone Speculator explained that the SPX will end this year at 2440. The S&P 500 sits at 2417.
Not too shabby considering that the overpaid Wall Street analysts were calling for 2800 and higher with the majority clustered in the 2900 to 3200 range. They only missed it by 500 to 800 points. Throwing a dart may have provided a better forecast. Much of Keystone's analysis was based on the monthly charts that were topping out this year as he explained as the drama played out all year long.
Comically, President Trump was optimistic one year ago predicting the Dow Jones Industrials would hit 30,000. The Dow topped out at 27K and now sits at 22.4K.
Keystone is putting together the 2019 predictions currently and also will assess and grade the 2018 predictions. Stocks may rally strongly to begin the year. The sentiment is off the charts bearish. China plans to pump its markets and economy with stimulus. China also hints at concessions with the IP dispute with the US so Xi and Trump may kiss and make up early next year creating stock market joy. The SPX monthly chart remains weak and bleak so any multi-week rallies will likely roll over and months down the road the stock market will be expected to be lower than now.
The Keystone Speculator is asked to comment on his spectacular Nostradamus-like forecasting for this year. Scratching at gray whiskers, Keystone calmly and quietly says, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then."
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