AAPL Daily and Weekly Charts; Death Cross

Apple tanked just like most every other stock in the market last week on the Powell rate decision and government shutdown negativity. The daily chart prints a death cross (black circle) so price would be expected to bounce. If the death cross remains in play going forward, Apple will be weak and maintain a negative bias for months to come.

The daily chart red lines show the negative divergence top that Keystone had highlighted back then and whammo, price receives the neggie d spankdown. The brown lines show a H&S pattern with the neckline failing at 215-ish. With a 235-ish head, that is 20 points difference so the H&S targets 195-ish, which was easily achieved. CEO Cook is hiding under the desk.

The green lines show the positive divergence in play that will bounce price. The RSI is weak and bleak due to the downside momo over the last 2-1/2 days so there may be a day or three of sideways chop. The possie d, however, should win out in the near-term and send Apple higher. The lower standard deviation band is violated so the middle band at 170.36, and dropping, is on the table.

The RSI and stoch's are oversold agreeable to a bounce. The green falling wedge pattern is bullish. The pink rectangle box forecasts long-term trouble. The slope of the 150-day MA flattens and rolls over negatively over the last month. The negative slope on the 150-day MA ushers in a cyclical (weeks and months ahead) bear market for AAPL going forward.

On the weekly chart, price falls like a rock from the neggie d spankdown (red lines). Price has violated the lower band so a move back up to the middle band at 203, and dropping, is on the table for the weekly time frame. The RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to a bounce. The stoch's and money flow are completely washed-out and nowhere to go but up. However, the RSI, MACD line and histogram remain weak and bleak. The 150-week MA at 146.66 should hold as solid support.

Thus, taking the daily and weekly analyses, mixing them together and sprinkling some magic voodoo dust on top, paints a scenario of Apple moving higher in the daily time frame so up for a few days or week or so targeting that 160-170 area. The weakness in the weekly chart, however, will likely reexert itself and bring price lower again for a lower low on the weekly basis. Say 140-155 in mid to late January. If you are more of an intermediate term investor and want that more substantive bottom, wait for the RSI and MACD line to turn possie d on the weekly. This should occur 2 to 3 weeks out so perhaps a nice bottom in Apple, on a weekly basis, in January.

The very near term provides the long opportunity but only if you are a nimble trader. Keystone thought he was nimble last week entering AAPL on the long side but Chairman Powell punched Keystone in the face; and then as Keystone spun around with a fat lip, President Trump smacked him in the head with a government shutdown 2x4 (a piece of lumber). Keystone is a few percent underwater on this AAPL long but is holding it. As explained, there should be a near-term pop and then followed by a more substantive bottom forming, on a weekly basis, likely in January.

If you did not listen to Keystone during the late summer that told you to get out of Apple at the top, you likely will have a second chance to at least ditch AAPL stock with better prices. Keystone suggested that long-term holders of Apple scale-out in July-September a perfect call if you listened. You would have locked in all your gains. But alas, if you are now panicked because you held AAPL, believing in Cook, riding the toboggan downhill, the weekly chart will likely bottom next month and you can ditch the stock say in late January or during February when it rallies on the weekly basis.

The indicators on the AAPL monthly chart remain weak and bleak and the RSI and stochastics are now below 50% in bear territory. This tells you that Apple will remain weak on a monthly (long-term) basis going forward. So the January bottom may only create a rally that lasts a few weeks, then Apple will roll back over to the downside and take out the lows in 2019. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 12/24/18, Christmas Eve: The bulls are spanked again today on a tag-team combo of Mnuchin and Trump beating the markets lower. AAPL drops -2.6% to 146.83 with a LOD at 146.59. Apple is testing that 150-week MA at 146.66 and the support is holding, so far. Price will either bounce or die from this key pivot level.