SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 12/17/18

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 12/17/18. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

The all-time record high print for the S&P 500 is 2940.91 on 9/24/18 and the all-time closing high is 2930.75 on 9/20/18. The SPX all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

For 2018, the intraday high is 2940.91 and closing high is 2930.75. For 2018, the intraday low is 2532.69 on 2/9/18 and the closing low for this year thus far is at 2581.00 on 2/8/18. As mentioned in this SPX S/R missive in October, “It would be interesting if the bear levels were tested by year end.” Last week, the S&P 500 came down to within a couple points of this year’s closing low at 2581 although price was still about 50 handles from the low for the year at 2533.

As highlighted in late September early October, the SPX monthly chart displays negative divergence across all its key indicators (RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics, money flow) as price prints matching highs. The stock market was toast and it collapsed from the neggie d smackdown as forecasted by Keystone. The monthly chart signals that a long-term top has printed a la the October 2007 top.

There are only two weeks of trading remaining in the year only 9 trading days. It looks like December will be a negative month. When a month moves in one direction, such as this month all down, the last few days of the month usually finishes countertrend, which would be up.

The Santa Claus rally is the period between Christmas and New Years into the first two days of the new year so this year it is 12/26/18 through 1/3/19. The stock market is typically bullish during this period thus the Santa Claus rally moniker has stuck over the decades.

Other seasonality factors are lining up for the bulls. The two-day Fed meeting is on Tuesday and Wednesday with the FOMC hiking the key rate by 25 bips on Wednesday afternoon. The key will be if the raise in rates is viewed as a ‘dovish hike’. Chairman Powell may flap his dovish wings like a madman despite announcing the hike or he may double down on the hawkishness and hike rates and boast about a strong economy and higher wages. The former dovish hike language is more likely.

The stock market is typically up 80% of the time into and through Fed meetings. Friday is Quadruple Witching OpEx so stocks should rally from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high. The full moon peaks for the month on Saturday and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon each month. Global earthquake activity will likely increase on the weekend and into new years day since the Earth and Moon will be at a gravitational inflection point.

The above is five seasonality patterns all favoring bulls. Is that enough to overcome the uber bearish negativity? The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios are elevated hinting that panic and fear is occurring which is agreeable to a near-term market bottom.

The bears have bludgeoned the bulls since early October. The SPX has lost the 12-month MA at 2746 so the stock market is in a cyclical (weeks and months ahead) bear market pattern.

The SPX begins the week at 2600 teasing towards the lows from the beginning of the year. On the bear side, if the S&P 500 loses the 2593-2595 support, a test of the very strong 2588 support will occur. If that fails, a test of the 2581-2584 level is next. This is uber important since it is the closing low for the year thus far. If it fails, price will stutter-step at 2578-2579 and then likely immediately collapse to 2560-2567.

On the bull side, the SPX will need to move above that 2604-2607 resistance for starters. Once through that, 2613 is next. If price is running higher, the key 2628-2629 strong resistance will be a big test of the bull strength after 2613. If that gives way, then the Friday high at 2635 will be attacked next. After that, the very strong 2650-2652 resistance is tested. If the S&P 500 can take out this strong resistance level, it will likely be committed to running higher to the 20-day MA at 2683-2685 for a back kiss.

The strongest support/resistance for the SPX (S&P 500) is 2683-2684, 2670, 2659, 2628-2629, 2613, 2604-2607, 2588, 2583-2584, 2578-2581, 2560. Stock market bulls have zero hope in the intermediate and long-term (weeks, months, years) unless the SPX moves back above the 12-month MA at 2746.

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SPX (S&P 500) SUPPORT/RESISTANCE (S/R) through 12/16/18;

3330

3020

3000

2980

2960

2950

2945

2941 (9/21/18 All-Time Intraday High: 2940.91) (9/21/18 Intraday High for 2018: 2940.91)

2940

2937

2935

2932

2931 (9/20/18 All-Time Closing High: 2930.75) (9/20/18 Closing High for 2018: 2930.75)

2927

2926

2924

2922

2919

2917 (8/29/18 Intraday High: 2916.50)

2914 (8/29/18 Closing High: 2914.04)

2912

2908

2906

2904

2902

2901

2900

2898

2897

2895

2894

2892

2889

2886

2884

2874

2873 (1/26/18 Intraday High: 2872.80)

2872

2867

2864 (9/7/18 Intraday Low: 2864.12)

2863

2862

2857

2856

2854

2853

2851

2850

2848

2846

2843

2842

2840

2839

2838

2836

2835

2833

2831

2830

2827

2824

2822

2818

2817 (10/17/18 Intraday High: 2816.94)

2816

2815 (11/7/18 Intraday High: 2815.15)

2813

2810

2809

2808

2806

2803

2802.29 (100-day MA)

2802 (3/13/18 Intraday High: 2801.90)

2800 (12/3/18 Intraday High: 2800.18)

2799

2798

2797

2793.28 (20-week MA)

2791 (6/13/18 Intraday High: 2791.47)

2789

2786.48 (150-day MA; the Slope is important now negative signaling Cyclical Bear Market)

2786

2783.94 (6-month MA)

2783

2782

2780

2779

2776

2774

2770

2767

2764

2762

2760.17 December Begins Here

2760

2759.27 (200-day MA)

2755.46 (50-week MA)

2754

2753

2751

2749

2748

2746.15 (12-month MA; the cliff; demarcation line signaling Cyclical Bear Market)

2744

2743

2741.62 (10-month MA)

2742 (5/22/18 Intraday High: 2742.24)

2741

2738

2733

2731

2729.51 (50-day MA)

2728

2727

2724

2723

2717 (4/18/18 Intraday High: 2717.49)

2713

2711

2710 (10/11/18 Intraday Low: 2710.51)

2705

2702

2701

2699.65 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart an Important Near-Term Market Signal)

2699

2696

2695 (12/18/17 Intraday High: 2694.97)

2693

2692 (6/2818 Intraday Low: 2691.99)

2691

2685.44 Previous Week’s High

2685

2683.72 (20-day MA)

2683

2682

2681

2678

2677 (5/29/18 Intraday Low: 2676.81)

2676

2675

2674 (12/29/17 Intraday Low; 2673.61)

2670

2668

2665 (12/4/17 Intraday High: 2665.19)

2664

2661

2659

2658

2653 (12/13/17 Intraday Low: 2652.85)

2652

2650

2648

2639

2637

2635.07 Friday HOD

2635

2633

2629.48 (20-month MA)

2628

2613

2606.95 (100-week MA)

2606

2605 (12/1/17 Intraday Low: 2605.52)

2604 (10/29/17 Intraday Low: 2603.54)

2602

2601

2600

2599.95 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

2597 (11/7/17 Intraday High: 2597.02)

2595 (5/3/18 Intraday Low: 2594.62)

2593.04 Friday LOD

2593
2588

2586

2585

2584

2583.23 Previous Week’s Low

2583 (12/10/18 Intraday Low: 2583.23)

2582

2581 (2/8/18 Closing Low for 2018: 2581.00)

2579
2578

2575

2573

2569

2567

2566

2560

2557

2555

2554 (4/2/18 Intraday Low: 2553.80)

2553

2552

2551

2549

2548

2545

2544 (10/25/17 Intraday Low: 2544.00)

2541

2535

2532 (2/9/18 Intraday Low for 2018: 2532.69)

2529

2521

2520

2519

2510

2508

2507

2503

2500

2497

2496

2491 (8/8/17 Intraday High: 2490.87)
2488 (9/25/17 Intraday Low: 2488.03)

2484 (7/27/17 Intraday High: 2484.04)

2483

2482

2481 (8/7/17 Closing High: 2480.91)

2480
2478 (7/27/17 Closing High: 2477.83)

2477

2476

2475

2472

2469

2468

2465

2454 (6/19/17 Intraday High: 2453.82)

2453 (6/19/17 Closing High: 2453.46)

2450

2448

2445

2443.57 (150-week MA)

2443

2442

2441

2439

2438

2436

2434

2431

2429

2428

2426

2423

2422

2419

2417 (8/21/17 Intraday Low: 2417.35)

2416

2415

2412

2406

2404

2401 (3/1/17 Intraday High: 2400.98)

2400

2396 (3/1/17 Closing High: 2395.96)

2394

2390

2389

2387

2382

2380

2378

2375

2373

2370

2368

2365

2363

2361

2359

2357

2356

2355

2353

2351

2349

2345.37 (200-week MA)

2345

2343

2342

2340

2338

2336

2335

2331.12 (50-month MA)

2329

2322

2311

2300

2299

2298

2297

2296

2293

2290

2289

2286

2285

2281

2280

2279

2278 (12/13/16 Intraday High; 2277.53)

2277

2275

2274

2273

2272 (12/13/16 Closing High: 2271.72)

2271

2270

2269

2268

2265

2263

2260

2258

2254

2252

2249

2245

2241

2239 (12/30/16 Closing Low: 2238.83) (End of 2016 Start of 2017; 2238.83)

2238

2234 (12/30/16 Intraday Low: 2233.62)

2214

2213 (11/25/16 Intraday and Closing High: 2213.35)

2212

2211

2210

2209

2207

2206

2205

2202

2200

2199

2198

2195

2194 (8/15/16 Intraday High: 2193.81)

2191 (12/1/16 Closing Low: 2191.08)

2190 (8/15/16 Closing High: 2190.15)

2187 (12/1/16 Intraday Low: 2187.44)

2185

2183

2182

2179

2178

2175

2174

2173

2170

2169

2166

2165

2164

2163

2160

2157

2155

2152

2151

2150

2146

2140

2135 (5/20/15 Intraday High: 2134.72)

2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)

2131 (5/21/15 Closing High: 2130.82)

2132

2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)

2129

2128 (7/20/15 Closing High: 2128.28)

2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)

2124 (6/23/15 Closing High: 2124.20)

2123

2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)

2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)

2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)

2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)

2116 (11/3/15 Intraday High: 2116.48)

2115

2114

2113

2111 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2111.04)

2110 (11/3/15 Closing High; 2109.79)

2109

2108

2107

2105

2104 (12/2/15 Intraday High: 2104.27)

2103 (12/2/15 Closing High: 2102.63)

2102 (4/20/16 Intraday High: 2102.40)

2100

2099

2097

2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)

2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)

2089

2086

2085 (11/4/17 Closing Low: 2085.18)

2084 (11/4/17 Intraday Low: 2083.79)

2083

2081

2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)

2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)

2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)

2074

2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)

2072

2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)

2069

2067

2065

2064

2063

2061

2057

2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)

2053

2052

2050

2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)

2044 (12/31/15 Closing High: 2043.94)

2042

2040

2038

2034

2032

2030

2023

2022

2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)

2017

2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)

2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)

2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)

2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)

2002

1998

1997

1995

1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)

1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)

1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)

1987

1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)

1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)

1983

1982

1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)

1980

1979

1978

1977

1973

1970

1969

1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)

1965

1964

1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)

1961

1958

1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)

1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)

1949

1948

1943

1942

1937

1936

1931

1928

1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)

1923.60 (100-month MA)

1920

1917

1914

1912

1910

1906

1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)

1901

1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)

1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)

1889