Friday, January 30, 2015

SPX Daily Chart Moving Average Ribbon

The SPX logs a strong down day thus far but overall staggers sideways. The 20 MA crosses down through the 50 MA which is bearish so next watch to see if the 20 MA can stab down through the 100-day MA, or not, and if the 50-day MA rolls over and heads down for a cross of the 100. The 150-day MA at 1997 is critical since it has provided the support for the SPX since Fall. Yesterday price stabbed below as the long lower shadow line of the candlestick shows but the bulls staged a strong recovery when Fed Chair Yellen started promising Senators that she would not raise rates for a long time.

Watch the pink 150-day MA at 1997 since bad things will happen below here. Price is now between the 100-day MA at 2010.19 offering resistance and the 150 offering support. Bulls win above 2010. Bears win big under 1997. Other key moving averages are; the 20-week MA at 2017.70 (that created a ceiling this morning), 10-month MA at 1982.23, 12-month MA at 1962.84 and 50-week MA 1957.59.

The lower standard deviation band is 1987.11 and price teased here yesterday but has not yet made a strong touch. When price violates the bottom band it will want to recover to the middle band currently at 2029 and falling. The indicators are indicating sideways action. Use the RSI 50% level to see which side is winning. The money flow is trading lower and may act as a weight to drag prices lower.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:11 PM: Here is the test of the 100-day MA at 2010.25. Price is 2010.28. You know the drill. Bounce or die time. If the bulls push higher stocks will likely remain buoyant into the weekend. If the bears hold the line at the 100-day MA resistance, price will start lower towards the 150-day MA at 1997. What say you bulls and bears? Price is at 2010 and must decide a path forward. Who will run with the ball?

Note Added 12:16 PM: Bounce. The bulls take the ball and run higher. The SPX is at 2014.40 so it will test the 20-week MA at 2017.70 for a bounce or die decision. There is strong horizontal price S/R at 2040, 2038, 2032, 2018-2019, 2011 and 2002-2003. Thus, a strong resistance gauntlet is at 2018-2019. Bulls win big above here and will have further legs higher. Bears should be fine if they hold the 2018-2019 resistance. The 2011 price S/R level lines up with the 100-day MA at 2010 forming a strong 2010-2011 support gauntlet so bears will win big under 2010-2011 and will send price back down to 2002-2003 S and potentially a test of the critical 150-day MA at 1997.

Note Added 12:24 PM:  The SPX is at 2015. Bulls win above 2018-2019. Bears win under 2010-2011. The battle lines are drawn.

Note Added 7:41 PM:  Well look at that. After a wild ride today, the SPX drops to close at 1994.99. The 150-day MA is 1996.94. Failure. The bulls will receive daily beatings as long as the bears keep the SPX under 1997. The 150-day MA has served as strong support so it is no mistake that price stopped here. You know what happens on Monday first thing. Yes, price must decide to bounce or die from 1995-1997.

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