Saturday, January 10, 2015

BTU Peabody Energy Weekly and Daily Chart Oversold Falling Wedges Positive Divergence Price Extended

Coal stocks continue to receive weekly beatings. BTU has dropped from 21 to 7, -70%, over the last year and even more over the last couple years. President Obama's war on the coal industry has destroyed the coal companies as well as the rural families and communities that rely on that employment. The daily chart is oversold with a falling wedge and positive divergence (green lines) across every indicator. There is momentum to the downside so catching falling knives is always risky. Price is over extended to the downside from the moving averages (price below the 20 MA below the 50 MA below the 200 MA) in both charts indicating a drastic need for a mean reversion (up).

The weekly chart is set up the same way with oversold conditions, a falling wedge and possie d except for the MACD line. Whenever trying to call a bottom in a stock or index you want all the indicators (RSI, MACD line, MACD histogram, stochastics, money flow) on both daily and weekly charts to provide the go signal. The BTU charts show that 9 of the 10 indicators are possie d but the MACD lines on the weekly will want another lower low after a bounce occurs. At that time the MACD lines on the weekly chart will positively diverge as well. Usually these stocks, coal, iron ore, etc..., commodities, pop strongly off the bottom. So now appears to be an acceptable time to dip the toe in the water with coal.

The expectation is for a bounce to occur which may be quite strong, then back down again which should create a firm bottom for BTU going forward. The stock will likely base for a few weeks or months through 6-10. Knife-catches are dangerous. Keystone opened a long position in BTU late Friday. Peabody is the subject of John Prine's famous song Paradise. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.