Saturday, January 10, 2015

NYA Weekly Chart 40 MA Cross Signals Cyclical Bear Market Sideways Channel

The NYA has been moving through the sideways 10250-11100 channel for the last year. The bears are winning the ongoing fight for cyclical (weeks and months) control of the stock market. The NYA at 10711 is under the 40-week MA at 10788-10791 signaling a cyclical bear market ahead. Bulls need to push the NYA above the 40-week MA or they got nothing.

The NYA 40-week MA cross is extremely important especially if you are more of an intermediate (months) and long-term (months and years) investor. All the analysts and pundits on Wall Street call for a higher stock market this year (Keystone forecasts a negative year) and their fate depends on the NYA 40-week MA cross. Look at the strong rally for a couple years with price well above the 40-week MA signaling party time for bulls day after day during 2013 and 2014. Then chinks form in the armor in September-October 2014 when the 40-week MA failed. The global central bankers collude and save the day in mid-October. Then in December another failure occurs but the central bankers ride to the rescue again. This was the rally that Fed Chair Yellen created with her dovish FOMC Q&A session. The central bankers are the market; it has degraded into a comical circus.

The fight over the 40-week MA, and the future of the stock market, continues. The NYA is oscillating above and below the 40-week MA at 10790 all last week each side is bloody and beaten but over the coming days or week or three a firm winner should be decided. If the NYA moves above the 40-week MA, the Wall Street strategists will be hoisted onto trader's shoulders and given a ticker tape parade during 2015 as the bulls run higher. If the NYA remains under the 40-week MA, the stock market is toast this year. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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