TNX 10-Year Treasury Yield Weekly and Daily Charts

The Monthly Jobs Report due in about 2-1/2 hours will affect Treasuries. The daily chart shows the two spank down caused by the rising wedges, overbot conditions and negative divergence. The 20-day MA crossing down through the 50-day MA is bearish for yields, which is bullish for notes and bonds (higher prices) and bearish for equity markets. Equities move in sync with yields; up yields and up stock market, down yields and down stock market. The drop in yields over the last month, however, has only resulted in a small move off the top for the equities markets thus far. The Fed's money and money fleeing Europe is flooding into dividend and other perceived safe haven stocks in the States creating new asset bubbles.

The daily chart shows yield wanting to test the 200-day MA at 1.74%. Ditto the 50-week MA at 1.74%. The blue lines on the daily chart shows a head and shoulders pattern in play with head at 2.06-ish, neck line at 1.83-ish, so the target is the support at 1.57-ish. The yield will not drop there in a straight line, there are likely jagged moves ahead with a drift lower in yields. The indicators are weak and bleak but the stochastics are flat in oversold territory which will help yield bounce off the 200-day MA, then likely additional lower yields after a bounce. The ADX red circle shows where yields confirmed higher numbers ahead, in concert with the equity rally starting in November. The green circle shows the ADX now crossing bearishly for yields projecting lower yields ahead.

The weekly chart also shows the ADX now crossing bearishly for yields. This cross also occurred at this same time last year and the year before. Late 2010 into early 2011 was QE2 that petered out. The green arrows show the central bank money pumps and yields moving up as equity markets moved higher on the Fed's and ECB's easy money. The maroon arrows show the down side in yields once the various QE's petered out. The 20-week MA crossing above the 50-week MA is bullish for yields and shows that a base wants to form, and fosters the development of an inverted H&S pattern (brown lines) that would target 3.2% once 2.3% gives way. There is likely lots more sideways movement in currencies and bonds than anyone thinks right now.  Those waiting for inflation and higher yields may have months or a year or two to wait, maybe more. Projection is sideways to sideways lower yields moving forward. A bounce should occur near-term off the moving averages at 1.74% but lower yields would be anticipated afterwards. Lower yields should occur in concert with the equity markets selling off. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.