Saturday, April 20, 2013

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R) and Moving Averages for Trading the Week of 4/22/13

SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other key levels are highlighted below for trading next week. The bulls staged a comeback on Friday aided by the BOJ weakening the yen. Weaker yen is higher equity markets, stronger yen is weaker markets; the central bankers are in control and continue to try to pump the markets higher.  The SPX closed under the 200 EMA at 1555.69 which keeps the bears in the drivers seat for the days and hours ahead, however, Keystone's 30-minute chart indicator shows the 8 MA now above the 34 MA which signals bull markets for the hours and days ahead. So these two signals have to resolve in a common direction early next week. Very simply, the 200 EMA carries immense clout, so bulls win above 1556, bears win below 1556.

For Monday, the bulls only need to see a smidge of positivity in the futures overnight Sunday and the broad indexes will move strongly higher after the opening bell. The bears need to push under 1540 to accelerate the downside which will test the previous week's low at 1536 in quick order. A move through 1541-1554 is sideways action to begin the week. The 50-day MA at 1543.90 is very important moving forward.  Ditto the 20-day MA at 1564.06. A move up through 1556 will open the door to 1563-1565. If that resistance level gives way, 1569 is next then 1575-1576. Treat the 20-day MA and 50-day MA as a sideways range 1544-1564 and the price move above or below is key and will dictate the path forward. Bulls win above 1564. Bears win below 1544.


·         1597 (4/11/13 All-Time Intraday High: 1597.35) (4/11/13 Intraday HOD for 2013: 1597.35)
·         1593 (4/11/13 All-Time Closing High: 1593.37) (4/11/13 Closing High for 2013: 1593.37)
·         1589 (Previous Week’s High: 1588.84)
·         1588
·         1586
·         1580
·         1576 (10/11/07 Intraday High: 1576.09)
·         1575
·         1569
·         1567.74 (10-day MA)
·         1565 (10/9/07 Market Top: 1565.15)
·         1564.06 (20-day MA)
·         1564
·         1563
·         1561
·         1556
·         1555.89 Friday HOD
·         1555.69 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Turn Signal)
·         1555.25 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
·         1553 (10/31/07 Top: 1552.76) (3/24/00 Top: 1552.87)
·         1552
·         1551
·         1548
·         1546
·         1544
·         1543.90 (50-day MA)
·         1539.40 Friday LOD
·         1539
·         1536 (Previous Week’s Low:  1536.03)
·         1531
·         1528 (3/24/00 Closing Top: 1527.46)
·         1525
·         1524 (12/11/07 Top: 1523.57)
·         1521
·         1520
·         1518
·         1516
·         1514
·         1512
·         1509
·         1505.59 (20-week MA)
·         1505
·         1503
·         1500
·         1498.09 (100-day MA)
·         1498 (12/26/07 Top: 1498.85)
·         1495
·         1489
·         1485
·         1481
·         1476
·         1475 (9/14/12 Intraday HOD for 2012: 1474.51)
·         1474.16 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
·         1472
·         1468
·         1466 (9/14/12 Closing High for 2012: 1465.77)
·         1465
·         1461.83 (10-month MA)
·         1461
·         1460
·         1457
·         1456
·         1452.50 (200-day MA)
·         1453
·         1447
·         1446
·         1444
·         1441
·         1440.90 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
·         1440 (5/19/08 Intraday HOD for 2008: 1440.24)
·         1438 (9/13/12 Fed Announces QE3 Infinity)
·         1435
·         1434.66 (50-week MA)
·         1433
·         1431
·         1430 (12/12/12 Fed Announces QE4 Infinity and Beyond)
·         1429 (11/6/12 President Obama Election Top)
·         1427 (5/19/08 Closing High for 2008: 1426.63) (2013 Begins at 1426.19)
·         1424
·         1422

5 comments:

  1. Given $CPCE, any move to the upside could result in a sizable pop and I would expect trapped longs to sell into it--including myself. Rich

    ReplyDelete
  2. CPC drops a touch to 1.10. CPC made it up to just shy of the critical 1.20+ level which signals a market bottom on tap. So, we are left wondering if the low was placed on Thursday and a rally will continue for a few days, or, if a large downward move occurs early in the new week, which will catapult the CPC well up and over 1.20. Considering that the CPC has not explored numbers above 1.20 for one years time, even if a recovery rally occurs for a few days, the CPC should venture well above 1.20+ in the coming days and weeks to properly signal a more substantive market bottom. Thus, some further sideways choppiness may be on tap. The BOJ is the whole key and with the G-20 turning a blind eye to currency devaluation, the bulls may be in good shape to begin the week. Any BOJ news is key.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and insights with us and for posting the WTIC Crude Oil chart. I believe support will be tested again next week before we ride the rally again and then comes May go away...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. just my opinion A....
      wait for a strong sell-off in stocks in May/beginning of June that will force FED to positively adjust the QE monthly volume ... that will send a positive wave in crude oil price action along also with the beginning of storms season.
      the crude oil bottom is not in place just yet, in my opinion.
      18-19 June 2013 FED meeting holds the key for commodities and stocks! Of course for building a long crude oil position you don't have to wait until 18-19 june meeting!
      May 2013 will be a sell-off for stocks rising some question markes in the heads of the FED voting members.

      The stocks rally is not over yet, yes, we have an interim spring time top, but this for sure it's not the "Top" ... After FED action in June 2013 this bull market has some 6 to 9 months to live and then ... "hasta la vista, baby!" :D ... prepare for some great show cause the "bad boys" bears will be in town, with no respect to any central bank in the world ... and that will be the very moment when everybody will awake and will find out that ...the Emperor Ben Bernanke has no clothes (Oh, my! I just blushed! :D ) just like in the fairy tale ...
      Cheers,
      V.

      Delete
    2. You are very entertaining V, thanks for your comments!

      Delete

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