Monday, April 8, 2013

Keystone's Eclipse Indicator

This esoteric signal is very interesting. The eclipse technique starts with identifying the eclipse dates and note where they cluster. Within that cluster area, markets are prone to large sell offs.  Once a center point is identified for the dates, a time period of one month before that date, and one month after that date are key, as shown by the small red boxes, and overall the entire box creates a zone for a potential large sell off. The market down moves tend to start at the first or second boxes rather than the middle area of the entire square.  Taking late last year as an example. The solar eclipse was 11/13/12 and lunar eclipse at 11/28/12.  Thus, 11/20/12 serves as a midpoint. Take one month before, and one month after and that creates the small red boxes, in this case, 10/20/12 and 12/20/12, give or take a week or two for each.  Markets topped in September-October last year at the first red box. In addition, the markets sold off the back half of December on the fiscal cliff fears, which occurred with the second small red box. The markets were stick-saved by the politicians to begin the year with the fiscal cliff resolution. So both of the dates were correct last Autumn. Typically, if a large sell off occurs from the first small red box, the second box becomes benign.

So there has been four eclipse windows over the last couple years. Each box has two targeted dates. The 5/15/11 date results in a sell off. The 7/11/11 date results in the large August waterfall crash so both dates in that window occurred. So the first eclipse window shown nailed two market tops.  Then the 11/3/11 date resulted in the November 2011 sell off. The second box at 1/3/12 was a non-event; markets were recovering and heading higher.  The second eclipse window nails another top with the 11/3/11 date.  Last year, the 4/27/12 date results in the May 2012 sell off. That must have taken all the energy since the 6/27/12 date did not cause a sell off, however, that is in the time frame where Draghi said he would support the euro by all means necessary, in July, that created the rally into the Fall. So the third eclipse window results in one correct market top call.  Last Autumn, the 10/20/12 date identified the market top, then, interestingly, the 12/20/12 called the top for the sell off in late December. So the fourth box results in both dates calling correct tops.

Thus, in the four eclipse windows over the last two years, two signal dates for each window, resulted in six of the eight as correct market top calls. Amazing for such an esoteric signal. Well, it is time to see what happens once again. The eclipse window in the right margin is now in play with the first date 4/10/13, now.  This window is special since there is an odd triple confluence this time around with three eclipse dates occurring over the next seven weeks; 4/25/13, 5/9/13 and 5/24/13. Taking a mid point date for the three dates yields a date of 5/10/13.  Thus, take one month before and one month after this date, which yields 4/10/13 and 6/10/13 as potential market tops where large sell offs may begin. The dates are +/- one or two weeks so the first small red box window is now through 4/24/13, and the second small red box is late May through 6/24/13. Interestingly, a major Bradley turn date occurs, which should be significant for this year, on 6/22/13, but Bradley turns do not forecast direction, only that a trend change or strong melt-up or melt-down move will occur.

So the markets sit in the first small red box right now, prime area for a potential significant market top anytime over the next two weeks. If a large sell off does not occur, then the period late May into late June will be the next target. The entire eclipse window is susceptible to a large market sell off, now through late June, over the next couple months, but the actual sell offs typically start from the dates provided above, the two small boxes within each window. The next two weeks will be interesting. For later in the year, the two key market top dates, give or take a week or two, are 9/26/13 and 11/26/13. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

12 comments:

  1. KS, do you have a theory as to why an eclipse indicator might work?

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    1. It likely follows the same idea as the Bradley turns, and solar flares, and so forth. Interestingly, the August 2011 waterfall crash also began exactly when a large solar flare hit. This year is the peak year for the multi-year solar cycle and the sun should be firing off plasma like mad but the cycle is unusually calm so far this year.

      The full and new moon indicators are in this realm as well. Humans behave strangely and oddly around eclipses, so they are prone to let their emotions run wild and it typically results in market selling. So, we are not advanced far enough as yet to identify the exact reason, but the folks in 20 or 30 years will likely be able to identify why and how things such as eclipses, moons, solar flares and what-not affect humans. All that matters for an indicator to be useful is a repeatability factor, which this has since the procedure is exactly the same each time to develop the dates, and, a good track record, which it also has, so sometimes indicators work because they work and sometimes you are not quite sure exactly why they work.

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  2. Jesus KS, you are really pushing the bear desperation now. I think you may want to use the Gypsy indicator as well, or maybe as I stated a few weeks back and was crucified for....get a monkey to throw a dart at the chart....wow, if a sell off doesn't come in a week or two maybe by May..."april showers bring may flowers?" Sell in may and go awat...what charting expertise...

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  3. Anonymous,
    KS is a free service which many people value but it seems you do not. So, why not simply save your time and don't bother typing in negative, rude and BS comments like the one above. If you are so wise and full of great market insights, then why not be constructive and generous with your advise like our host KS does for HOURS everyday, despite the occasional insult from a curmudgeon like yourself? Said another way - you add no value, please go away.....

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    1. Great work WG! Classic distribution going on.

      When trolls come and post messages like this, time to go 100% short. Top is imminent.

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    2. Yeah Daniel! I agree with you. those who wrote these kind of messages must not very productive in their lives and lack of knowledge in many fields, they are definitely trolls!

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    3. WG = KS (ipad auto-correct feature)

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  4. futures bright green! Looks like keybot will register another loss on the short side. Money bazooka trumps all charts. Get LONG now!

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  5. cool beans KS, never seen this before!!

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  6. Yep, the eclipse indicator always creates lots of interest and passion. It was time to post the indicator since 4/10/13 is the next date on tap, tomorrow, give or take a week or two. Note the tight Bollinger Bands on on the daily SPX chart now, so a big move on tap, if up, that may be the blow-off top, or, the downside may begin at anytime. The central banker and political intervention creates the ongoing difficult markets. All you can do is roll with the flow and take it day to day, hour to hour. With the SOX above 423.90, and SPX above 1563, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long today.

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  7. I think the key is magnetism and electricity. Both affect human behaviour. And the Sun has a major impact on electrical currents on earth. Energy production in humans requires electron transport over the outer membrane of the mitochondria. Electron trensport is affected by magnetic currents. Why do people get sick in planes? It's not because of tight chairs; they are too far away from earth's magnetic field. Solar flares produce magnetic storms. And all the planets affect the sun's behaviour. So astro is science, not esotheric. (I think).

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