Tuesday, November 1, 2011

SPX Daily Chart with 150 MA Slope Secular Bear Market

Remember how important it has been over the last few days to note if the SPX 150 day MA slope wants to change from downward-sloping to upward-sloping?  When the 150 day MA slope is down, a negative slope, the broad markets are in a secular bear market pattern.  When the 150 day MA slope becomes positive again, sloping upwards, then the secular market bulls are in control again.  After Chairman Bernanke announced QE3 in August-September 2010, the 150 day MA slope went positive to verify a bull market but as last Thanksgiving approached, November 2010, you see the stutter step. The slope of the 150 day MA went negative indicating trouble ahead and the markets did sell off in November 2010, but then recovered.  Note how from December 2010 into August 2011, the secular market bulls ruled, the stimulus was in full swing, money was dropping from helicopters.

Note the peak of the 150 day MA on 8/2/11; then it went negative ushering in a secular bear market. The 150 day MA slope has remained negative since 8/2/11 but in recent days, with the euphoric bull rally, the numbers were on the verge of wanting to turn the slope positive again, but so far, it has  not.  Check the 150 day MA each evening to keep track. The last few days show prints for the 150 day MA of 1264.89, 1264.43, 1263.98, 1263.79, 1263.62 and yesterday's print, 1263.18.  Note how each number drops a little bit each day verifying the negative slope. The secular market bears remain in control of the broad markets as long as the 150 day MA slope remains negative.

Also of interest on the chart, note the last move up with higher highs in price.  The MACD histogram, stochastics and money flow are all negatively diverged wanting to see a spank down, and price did pull back down yesterday, however, the RSI and MACD line remain in a long and strong profile for the recent move up, indicating that they would like to see a matching price high again, thus, stay on guard for a stutter step in here, where the markets drop, then spike back up again, before resuming a more steady downward trend. This action would also serve to slap the bears that jump on board quickly today, then the bulls that buy during a spike back up, and the markets are always out to frustrate the maximum number of traders at any given time. This information is for educational and entertainment pruposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or on any links associated with this site.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

2 comments:

  1. just a question, if you ever make this private...will you keep past post freely available as a learning tool?

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  2. Hello Dankir, sure, unless some sort of memory limits may necessitate decreasing the content size. Who knows what the future brings, but for now, the answer would be yes, all this content will be available for the forseeable future.

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