Thursday, November 17, 2011

SPX Minute Chart Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

This is a follow up chart concerning the ongoing sideways symmetrical triangle pattern playing out for many of the major indexes. Note that yesterday shows failure of the lower trend line. The next few days are very important. When a trend line this important fails, a back kiss is in order, so a move up to test 1242 from the underside is reasonable. If the back test is successful and price then heads lower again, the red lines show key support levels below at 1233, 1229, 1225, 1220, 1210 and 1204. Note how the indicators are all continuing along in a sideways pattern squeezing in closer each day. The RSI, however, shows failure out the bottom just like the price failure.

Typically a fake-out move occurs out of the sideways triangles so a few days must play out before there is any confirmation that the downside would be preferred, or not. Watch the 30, 60 and 120 MA's, now lining out together; especially watch the to see if the 30 MA falls under the 60 MA which would give the bear move down some street cred. The bears have the upper hand now. The vertical side of the triangle is about 80 points so whichever side of the triangle that the breakout occurs from simply add or subtract the 80.  Thus, for now, with the bears showing the bravado, causing the failure at 1242 yesterday, 1242-80 = 1162 target. The market bulls are obviously hoping for price to recover back up into the triangle and head out the top side, thus, that target would be about 1254+80 = 1334. This represents the year-end rally that many fund managers are currently rooting for, at least the long-only funds. Now you understand why the next few days are very important.

Watch for a back kiss of the bottom rail at 1242 and note if price receives a slap down or if price moves back up into the triangle. The RSI and weakening money flow show that lower prices are preferred. Watch the support levels below (red lines) if this occurs, and also stay on guard for any sharp revesal back up which would represent a fake-out move for the triangle pattern, where price would return into the triangle and shoot out the topside. For now, the bears rule. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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