Stock Market Crash 2011 Timeline and Chronology:
Keystone chronicles the broad markets topping and rolling over during 2011, leading into the July-August-September-October 2011 crash. The charts and technical’s accurately forecasted the move all year long.
Keystone’s proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, that trades the indexes long-short, using the SPX as a benchmark index, went short on 7/11/11 at SPX 1324 and covered on 8/23/11 at SPX 1146, a 178 handle gain in six weeks time, or 13.4%. The actual trade in SDS gained 25.6%. On 8/23/11, Keybot flips to the long side simultaneously at SPX 1146.
On 9/1/11, Keybot exits the long position at SPX 1207, a 61 handle gain in 8 trading days, or 5.3%. The actual trade in SSO gained 12.1%. On 9/1/11, Keybot flips to the short side simultaneously at SPX 1207.
On 9/8/11, as the indexes compress into a tighter band, Keybot flips to the long side at SPX 1200, a 7 handle gain, but a whipsaw occurs during the session as Chairman Bernanke tanks the markets and Keybot flips back to the short side at SPX 1186 taking a 14 handle loss.
On 9/14/11, on the happy Sarkozy-Merkel-Papandreou conference call euphoria, Keybot exits the short side at SPX 1180 for a 6 handle gain. Keybot flips to the long side simultaneously at SPX 1180.
On 9/22/11, at the open, Keybot exits the long side at SPX 1150 for a 30 handle loss, or 2.5%. Keybot flips to the short side simultaneously at SPX 1150.
On 9/26/11, Keybot closes the short side at SPX 1148 and flips to the long side.
On 9/29/11, Keybot closes the long side at SPX 1146 and flips to the short side.
Timeline and Chronology of Market Events Leading to the July August September October 2011 Stock Market Crash:
Reference the 9-23-11 post of this article which covers the entire timeline during 2011 up thru the end of September.
On 9/25/11, Sunday, G-20 leaders promise action on the European problem before the 11/3/11 meeting in Cannes. The futures are up significantly.
On 9/26/11, Monday, Asia sells off strongly overnight and the futures tumble lower. By the open, however, the markets are moving upwards. Lots of mixed messages coming out of Europe, first the ECB is contemplating rate cuts at the next meeting but then another official dispels that statement. A CNBC news correspondent reports that the EFSF facility will be expanded and well-funded and a solution to the Euro problems is close at hand. The markets shoot upwards like a rocket. The SPX finishes up 27 points, or 2.3%. The Dow Industrials finish up 272 points, or 2.5%.
On 9/26/11, Keybot the Quant algorithm flips to the long side at 11:41 AM EST at SPX 1148. The trade from 9/22/11 is flat. Markets remain highly volatile.
On 9/27/11, Tuesday, Asia markets moves higher on the positive Euro news. Germany’s Merkel takes a more conciliatory stance with Greece stating that they will offer all aid possible. The futures as well as gold and silver are up large on the happy Euro talk as well as EOQ3 window dressing. The Dow Industrials moved up and over 300 points at midday. Major indexes were up huge between 2% and 3%. In the afternoon, the Eurozone members said they want to restructure the Greece bailout terms. Markets immediately started selling off the final hour of trading. The major indexes salvaged about a 1% up day. Gold recovered 4% today.
On 9/28/11, Wednesday, optimism on a Euro solution is fading ahead of the German vote overnight tonight that decides on the funding the EFSF and holds the balance of the markets in its hands. The major indexes finished about 2% lower across the board with the early week euphoria fading away.
On 9/29/11, Thursday, Germany votes in support of the EFSF so the futures move up. The markets start the day up large on better-than-expected GDP and Claims data. Copper, however, continues to collapse, now printing 3.25, a 13-month low. Markets sell off as the day proceeds but then take a large spike upwards in the final minutes. The Dow Industrials cover over a 6% range today, up big, down big, then up big, due to the high volatility (VIX).
On 9/29/11, Keybot the Quant algorithm flips back to the short side at 2:10 PM at SPX 1146. The trade from 9/26/11 is flat. Markets remain highly volatile.
On 9/30/11, Friday, IR cuts sales and profit forecasts. IR is a global bellwether stock, with 40% of its business overseas, a very good proxy for the status of the global economy, and the news is not pretty. The CRB Commodities Index dropped under 300, the first time since November 2010, forecasting the coming deflation. The dollar continues to strengthen. The Eurozone leaders continue to discuss ways, such as using leverage, to increase the EFSF’s available funds to deal with Italy and Spain. Germany’s Finance Minister Schaeuble says using leverage to increase the EFSF is out of the question since that will destroy Germany’s AAA credit rating. Today is the last session in September, the EOM (end of the month) and EOQ3 (end of the third quarter for 2011; Jul-Aug-Sept). The SPX benchmark index fell 14.3% in Q3, the worst quarterly performance since 2008.
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On 10/3/11, Monday, ………………………the saga continues…………..
Coming Attractions:
Eurozone problems continue. Greece and Italy are the problems. Decision on next Greece bailout, the sixth installment of Greek aid, is set for Tuesday. Greece will run out of funds on 10/14/11 unless approved. Markets remain at the mercy of Euro news.
ECB rate meeting on Thursday morning and even though they want to cut rates, they will not, since it is Trichet’s final meeting and they do not want him to look like a doofus. But a rate cut should occur, perhaps in the interim between now and early November’s meeting.
Global recovery is stalling. China bubble popping. Copper and commodities dropping.
ISM Manufacturing Index is at 10 AM Monday so this directly affects the energy markets. Construction Spending also at 10 AM is an excellent gauge for employment. On Tuesday, Chairman Bernanke speaks at 10 AM. Factory Orders 10 AM. On Wednesday, Challenger and ADP reports will start to hype the Friday jobs report. ISM Non-Manufacturing is 10 AM and Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. On Thursday, Monster Index and Jobless Claims are early morning data points but the ECB rate meeting will dominate. On Friday, the Jobs Report hits before the open then Wholesale trade at 10 AM.
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