SPX Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross Secular Bear Market Remains

Today's closing print was very important. The last day of the month provides the data point for the monthly charts. One of Keystone's Secular Signals is the cross of the SPX 12-month MA which determines a secular bear market versus a secular bull market. Today, price started where this vital tool would have flipped back over to a secular bull market. This would have been a huge feather in the bull's cap and all but assured a strong rally into year-end. Alas, it was not meant to be.

In fact, the indexes collapsed into the close as Greece Prime Minister Papandreou supplied flies for the bailout ointment. The SPX 12 month MA is 1275.22 and today's close is 22 points under maintaining a three month trend forecasting a secular bear market for the weeks and months to come. Note how the summer of 2010 was a knock down drag out fight and the only thing that saved the indexes from going over the falls was Chairman Bernanke announcing QE3. This resulted in price moving above the 12 MA to indicate a secular bull market was back on tap from September 2010 on. Today started with a similar feel where a stutter step would occur and the secular bulls had a chance to regain the upper hand, but the bulls failed.

If you ignore the daily large point moves in the indexes, due to the elevated volatility, and take a deep breath, this tool tells you that the market bears remain in control of the broad markets and continue to forecast weak indexes for the weeks and months ahead. The recent rally was not strong enough for the SPX to print above 1275 today, thus, the secular bear continues to growl. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or on any links attached to this information.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.