Quadruple witching does not look too scary at this juncture, futures now up healthily. Watch copper, volatility, SPX:VIX ratio and TRIN closely today. If market bulls get JJC (copper) above 54.80, 50 cents higher, they can really get some upside momo. Watch VIX 17.86, now at 22.73, four points above, forecasting bearishness ahead as long as it stays above 17.86. SPX:VIX ratio has collapsed to 55.77, so a short the rallies approach is prudent as long as it stays under 68, then, at 35 or 40 we can start talking real rally. TRIN closed sub one yesterday indicating bullishness. Watch which side of one the TRIN moves today to gauge the tone of the markets.
Expiration today but much of the positioning has been the cause of the turmoil the last few days, so today should be somewhat calm after the roller coaster ride. A pivot at 10 AM, when conusmer sentiment hits at 9:55 AM and leading indicators at 10 AM, will occur, that will probably be the big excitement today. Markets will react to the Greece news flow.
For the SPX for today, market bulls need to touch the 1274 handle, if so, and the futures are getting them close, then the buying will accelerate to the upside. If the data at 10 AM throws a wet blanket on things, the market bears need to push down thru the 1258 handle, and the markets will sell off many more handles in quick order since this also represents the starting year numbers and 200 MA. The markets, considering the positive divergence shown on the previous charts, hints at this bounce sticking around today. Perhaps a flat session after the initial spike upwards, then a flat close leads to a flat Monday open, but everything hinges on the Greece outcome over the weekend.
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