SPX S/R for Week of 6-27-11

SPX starts the week at 1268.45.  If the futures are red and the bears come to play, all they need to do is push one point lower, to get under 1267, and the selling will accelerate downward a few handles to test support at 1262 and 1258-1259 which is where the SPX started the year.

If the futures are green with happy Europe/Greece news, the market bulls would have to drive the SPX up to touch 1284, about 15 points higher, to develop any momo for the day, and that would be a formidable task.  Markets are typically bullish the last couple days before a three day holiday weekend, thus, Thursday and Friday sessions should be bull-friendly.  Use this seasonality as a guide once the week begins.

SPX daily chart is in a positive divergence profile, so a bounce off any of the support levels from 1249 and higher would be in order now. This would provide the indexes a path to move higher into the holiday weekend and take a small rest from all the June selling.  If 1249 is lost, that is a big deal, 1233 will then be in play.

SPX monthly prints are very important moving forward, the June print will be Thursday after the close.  The 10-month MA is a critical support level, as is the 12-month MA which serves as Keystone's Secular Signal for the SPX.  The 10-month MA is 1268; price held a few pennies above at the Friday close which gives the bulls a little feather in their cap.  The 12-month MA is 1236.  The NYA 40 week MA cross has already indicated that the markets have now fallen into a secular bear market.  The 12-month MA cross for the SPX, at 1236, would confirm the NYA signal and confirm a return to a secular bear market.  Above 1236, you have to continue to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.

·         1389

·         1370

·         1365

·         1360

·         1357

·         1354

·         1350

·         1345

·         1337

·         1333

·         1331

·         1329

·         1326

·         1323

·         1321

·         1319

·         1316

·         1314

·         1311-1312

·         1306-1307

·         1300

·         1298

·         1295

·         1292-1293

·         1289

·         1286-1287

·         HOD Friday 1283.93

·         1282

·         1277-1278

·         1272-1273 (LT S/R)

·         1270

·         1267-1268

·         LOD Friday 1267.24

·         1262

·         1258-1259 (1257.64 is the starting number for 2011)

·         1257 (3/16/11)

·         1252 (9/14/08 pre-LEH bk)

·         1249 (LOD 3/16/11)

·         1247

·         1242

·         1235 (12/15/10; also HOD 12/7/10 large volume)

·         1233 (LOD 12/16/11)

·         1227 (HOD 11/9/11)

·         1226 (11/5/11)

·         1224 (12/7/10 large volume)

·         1220 (HOD 4/26/10)

·         1217 (4/23/10)

·         1209 (HOD 4/29/10)

·         1207 (4/29/10 Top)

·         1197

·         1192 (9/15/08 post-LEH bk)

·         1140

·         987

·         666 (3/6/09 bottom)