SPX SP 500 2-Hour Chart; Negative Divergence Developing; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Upper Band Violation; Gaps

The SPX has rocket-launched off the bottom one week ago. Price runs higher and stops at the resistance level from mid-October. The important 100-day and 50-week MA resistance levels are at 2820-2822 so keep an eye on these two characters. They are gate-holders for a further rally higher in the stock market.

The stochastics and RSI are overbot agreeable to a pull back in price. Ditto the red rising wedge which is a bearish pattern. The red lines show neggie d with the histogram, stochastics and money flow. S&P futures are down -11 before the opening bell for the regular session so this neggie d creates this weakness. The long and strong RSI and MACD line say that price has enough energy to likely come back up again after any dip lower. The SPX will top in the 2-hour time frame when the RSI and MACD negatively diverge joining the other parameters. The RSI may turn neggie d in a couple candlesticks and the MACD a couple after that so 2 to 4 candlesticks is 4 to 8 hours of time which is today into tomorrow.

The bond market is closed on Monday for Veteran's Day (thanks to all the vets out there) but stocks will trade. Stocks are typically bullish the two days in front of a three-day holiday weekend although it is only a long weekend for the bond traders. So the bulls have a seasonality factor slightly on their side. Stocks are usually buoyant into the Fed meetings. Stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon which peaked yesterday so perhaps some of that gloom contributes to the soggy futures.

Thus, due to the long and strong behavior on the RSI and MACD line, stocks may not peak for a few hours or a day or two. The Fed announcement is today so perhaps the movement in the indicators will condense tighter and create wild excitement.

When price rolls over, the gaps below (purple circles) will need filled. Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 2747 and rising is on the table. Remember, the 12-month MA at 2755 is a critical cliff edge for the stock market. Bulls beat the devil this week pushing the SPX back above 2755. If the SPX fails again at 2753-2758, the stock market will be toast for many weeks, months and perhaps years ahead. The SPX is at 2814 as the Thursday session begins. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the bull side yesterday at SPX 2783. Bears need weaker banks and retail stocks while bulls need stronger chips, a higher NYA Index and lower volatility. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot theQuant

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

A key Keystone market signal for the short-term is the SPX cross of the 200 EMA on the 60-minute chart. It dictates the path ahead for the stock market for the hours and days ahead.

Whoa, wow, look at that. The SPX explodes above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2772. The bulls are throwing confetti and drinking Fed wine buying stocks at the ask. The bulls are unstoppable above 2772. There will be a back kiss so watch when that occurs to see if price will bounce or die. A bounce and it will be off to the races higher. A spankdown from 2772 and the bears begin to flex their muscles again.

The SPX left a gap behind big enough to drive a truck through at 2680-2700. That will need filled in the future. If price comes down to 2700, and then gaps back down to 2680 and lower, that would create an island reversal stock market pattern.

The stock market is in a cyclical bull market pattern above the 12-month MA at 2753. Bears got nothing over the weeks and months ahead unless they push the S&P 500 under 2753; that is where the carnage begins.

Key moving averages;
20-week MA = 2820
100-day MA = 2819
150-day MA = 2781
200 EMA on the 60-minute = 2772
200-day MA = 2763
50-week MA = 2755
10-month MA = 2755
12-month MA = 2754

Look at that confluence of key support at 2754-2755. That is the most important level to the stock market since it separates the cyclical (weeks and months) bull market versus the cyclical bear market going forward. For the near-term, watch SPX 2772 as the rudder determining stock market direction. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:59 AM EST: The SPX is at 2779. HOD 2788. LOD 2774.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/8/18 Before Opening Bell: The SPX is at 2814. Equities melted-up yesterday afternoon after President Trump's press conference. Price blew through the moving averages listed above and bumps its head on the 100-day MA at 2820 and 20-week MA at 2822. The next battle on the top side is 2820-2822. The SPX recovered from the 12-month MA which is the stock market cliff edge. The stock market is now back in a cyclical bull market pattern. The SPX will likely test the key 2754-2758 area again and make a critical bounce or die decision for all the marbles. If the S&P 500 can remain above that 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2774, the bulls are on easy street and stocks will remain happy.This 200 EMA will receive a back kiss, perhaps today, from which price will bounce or die. A failure at 2774 opens the door for price to head back down to the important 2754-2758 support.

A Summary of America's Fake News Bias on Election Day 11/6/18

by K E Stone (Keystone the Scribe and The Keystone Speculator)

Non-biased news in America has gone the way of the penny loafer. Unbiased and impartial news reporting and journalism in the United States is as rare as hen’s teeth. Each news source you follow is slanting the news story towards either the Republican Party or Democrat Party manipulating American minds. What better day to review the circus than today, Mid-Term Election Day, 11/6/18.

The US is a two-party crony capitalism system. This article explains the news bias in the US that must be considered when absorbing any information on the internet, radio or television.

The democrat-leaning news sources will always tout former President Obama, Hillary Clinton and progressive and liberal ideals as the greatest thing since sliced bread while denigrating republicans. At the same time, the republican-leaning news sources place President Trump on a pedestal praising every decision as genius. The republican media touts conservative ideals (even though most republicans no longer believe in fiscal conservatism as evidenced by the obscene Keynesian spending over the last nine years by both parties) while bashing democrats. America has become very ill and divided.

The cable news networks practice news sensationalism to attract eyeballs since advertising fees, the mother’s milk of profits, are dependent on viewership. The lip gloss beauties reading the teleprompters display long sexy legs that attract viewers. One pair of shiny legs is longer than the next pleasing the majority of male viewers. Roger Ailes, that ran the Fox News media empire for many years but had to resign in disgrace, then croaked, professed the mantra that “legs equal viewers.”

Botox is on full display at the news networks with talking heads sporting foreheads tighter than a garage band’s snare drum. The female news readers don beautiful custom-tailored dresses at over $500 a pop that highlight their attributes. A first-year marketing student will tell you that “sex sells.” The news networks manipulate minds into loyal democrats or republicans.

News is entertainment nowadays when it used to provide level-headed facts. All news is biased in America. News organizations do not even attempt to hide it anymore. The teleprompter readers comment at the end of each news story reinforcing the network’s bias. It is standard fare for anchors to praise, or denigrate, each news story depending on the networks bias.

President Trump calls out the ‘fake news’ from CNN, MSNBC, the broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, NBC), public television (NPR and PBS), New York Times, Washington Post (owned by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos a democrat) and others on a daily basis highlighting the exaggerated negative bias. The democrat-leaning media is relentless in denigrating Trump and hopes he fails and is removed from office. America used to support the president no matter what party is in the Whitehouse but not anymore. The country has changed. The republican and democrat tribes push their pet agendas instead of what is good for the country as a whole.

There are always two sides of the coin and President Trump conveniently ignores the fake news spewing daily from Fox News, Breitbart, Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levin and others that denigrate the democrats while praising republicans and the decisions made by the orange-headed leader of the Free World.

Interestingly, most Americans prefer the middle ground and are very disturbed at the direction the country over the last couple decades. Independent voters are on the rise as many US citizens are fed up and do not want to be associated with either party and the political baby games. Many Americans do not realize that they are actually libertarians in their thinking wanting fiscal responsibility concerning government budgets and tax policy and at the same time do not care what people do in the privacy of their own bedrooms.

But enough of this windbag front matter; all you want to know is what the media bias is in America and who are the major players so without further ado lets expose the nasty truth about the United States media.

You may decide on different percentages of bias after reviewing the lists below but the most educated guess is that about 70% of the news in America is biased towards democrat, liberal and progressive minds while 30% of the news is biased towards republican and conservative thinking.

Democrat, Liberal and Progressive (Left-Leaning) News Outlets, Groups and Organizations Represent About 70% of the US Media

ABC (broadcast television dominated by the left)

CBS (broadcast television)

NBC (broadcast television)

PBS (pubic television)

NPR (public television)

CNN (cable television news)

MSNBC (cable television news)

Bloomberg (cable business news)

Reuters

Associated Press (AP)

New York Times

Washington Post

LA Times

San Francisco Chronicle

Boston Globe

USA Today

Huffington Post

Media Matters

Salon

Politico

Brookings Institute

The Economist

American Prospect

Reliable Sources (CNN)

Vox Media

Television Business

Movie Business

Music Business

Publishing Business

Hollywood

Pop Culture

Saturday Night Live (SNL) Comedy Show

Celebrities/The Aspen Elite

Silicon Valley

Facebook

Google

Colleges and College Professors

LBGTQ Community

Pro-Choice Advocates

Union workers and employees making minimum and low wages tend to favor the left.

The major US cities lean democratic including New York City, Boston, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, Seattle and Chicago. The states of Virginia, New York, California, Oregon and Washington are left-leaning.

Republican and Conservative (Right-Leaning) News Outlets, Groups and Organizations Represent About 30% of the US Media

Fox News (cable television news)

Rush Limbaugh (talk radio is dominated by the right)

Sean Hannity

Mark Levin

Glenn Beck/The Blaze

Laura Ingraham

Hugh Hewitt

Dennis Prager/Prager University

Mark Steyn

Breitbart

Drudge Report

Wall Street Journal (WSJ)

American Spectator

National Review

Washington Times

Daily Caller

Daily Wire

The Federalist

MediaBuzz (Fox News)

National Rifle Association (NRA)

US Chamber of Commerce

The Heritage Foundation

The Religious Right

Evangelicals

Pro-Life Advocates

Country Music/Patriotic Anthems

Auto Racing/NASCAR (National Association for Stock Car Auto-Racing)

Upper-middle class professional employees such as attorneys, doctors, engineers and accountants, and high-wage earners, tend to favor the right.

The Midwest and Rust-Belt cities, the Heartland (the center of the United States often referred to as the ‘fly-over country’), lean republican.

Assessing the news bias above yields 70% of media in the democrat camp and the other 30% in the republican camp. America is no longer united and instead has become tribal. Both the republican and democrat ‘tribes’ place their party ahead of what is actually good for the United States. This sad new face of America spells trouble for the United States going forward. Tribal allegiance rules the day. The unified America crumbles.

President Obama had a free ride during his eight years in office since 70% of the media was always on his side praising his decisions and covering up any mistakes. On the other side of the ledger, for example, republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was ridiculed daily by the liberal press during the 2012 presidential race; he never had a chance. It is like playing a football game where the referees are paid off helping one team win. Republicans are at a disadvantage since the news coverage is weighted towards the democrats.

President Obama was the first media selected and elected president in America’s history. Obama never cared much about what he said off the cuff since if he did misspeak, the liberal press would always protect him.

President Trump has a tougher row to hoe since only 30% of the media is supportive to his agenda while the other 70% denigrates the president every 10 minutes. Like it or not, many Americans must accept Trump as president and give him a chance for the sake of the country. President Trump won the election fair and square.

Many Americans receive their daily news from the broadcast television stations such as ABC, CBS and NBC which slant the news in favor of democrats while representing republicans in a bad light. The democrats hold the advantage in the media bias game.

This article changes the way you view the media and news outlets. Monitor the news sources listed above and the bias will smack you squarely in the face. As long as you know how the game is played, you can filter the news and not become a puppet of the establishment republicans and democrats that attempt to control your mind daily.

Use the above knowledge to filter out the news bias. Before consuming any news, first read the byline or reference the lists above to determine which news organization is peddling the left or right-leaning propaganda. Think objectively and independently. A smart American declares a pox on both the republican and democrat houses.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 10 and 12-Mth MA Gauntlet at 2752 Separates Cyclical Bear Market from Cyclical Bull; US Mid-Term Election Day

The SPX 12-month MA cross is a key cyclical market indicator and the battle continues. The stock market will remain in a long-term cyclical bear market if it remains below SPX 2751 while a cyclical bull market will kick back into gear above SPX 2752. The 12-month MA is at 2751 and the 10-month is at 2752. Price is at 2749. Markets are parked directly at the most critical pivot point at SPX 2751-2752 as the US Election Day occurs.

This pivot from SPX 2752 is for all the marbles. The HOD is 2752 so the bulls tried to pierce the key resistance level but price slumps back below. The stock market bulls win big for the weeks and months ahead above 2752 while the bears will confirm more downside carnage and mayhem ahead below 2751

The election results will begin coming in at 8 PM and 9 PM EST this evening, Tuesday, 11/6/18. Most of the election day results should be known around 10 PM EST (3 AM Wednesday morning London; 4 AM Central Europe; 12 noon Tokyo). 

Interestingly, the new moon peaks for the month at 11 AM EST tomorrow morning, the darkest time of the month. Stocks are usually bearish moving through the new moon. Military forces with superior night vision technology carry out covert raids under the cover of the new moon. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12 Noon: The SPX is at 2747 and the nervous dance continues on the 2747-2752 quivering tightrope.

Note Added Wednesday, 11/7/18, After US Eklection: The SPX ends Tuesday at 2755 above the key 2752-2753 line in the sand opening the door to big gains ahead. After the Wednesday opening bell, the SPX catapults higher to 2786. The bulls are running. The new moon is peaking at 11 AM EST.

October Publication of Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-10 Available from Amazon

The October Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-10 is available from Amazon. The October stock market crash is explained in detail as it occurs in real-time.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-11 for November is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Saturday, 12/1/18.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Battle at the 12-Month MA for Cyclical Market Control

The SPX 12-month MA cross is a key cyclical market indicator. The 12-month MA is at 2752 and price is at 2752. Of course the bulls have dominated the stock market since the March 2009 bottom due to the central banker money-printing.

This pivot from SPX 2752 is for all the marbles. The stock market bulls win big for the weeks and months ahead above 2752 while the bears will confirm more downside carnage ahead below 2752.This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:49 AM EST: The SPX is up 14 points, +0.5%, to 2754. The bulls are dancing with glee. The bears are plotting another push lower. The dance continues.

Note Added 9:53 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. The SPX prints 2750. The bears dance with glee. The bulls are plotting another push higher. The dance continues.

Note Added Sunday, 11/4/18: The bears win on Friday with the SPX ending last week at 2723. Each day that the SPX remains below the 12-month MA at 2749-2752, is another nail in the bull's coffin.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Complacency Indicates a Near-Term Top Ahead

Here we go again. Traders comically flock from one extreme to the other and then back again. Both the CPC and CPCE put/calls plummet lower signaling rampant complacency. Traders are drunk as skunks on Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBOC wine buying stocks with reckless abandon. Crash, schmash. No one is worried. The low put/calls indicate that investors are fearless and not concerned about a market selloff at all. The October crash is long forgotten.

The low put/calls signal a near-term top at hand at any time, any hour, any day ahead. The jobs report is in the morning so, as teeny-bopper Ellie Goulding sings, "Anything Could Happen." If stocks rally, that would be great from a shorting perspective since it will provide nice entries. It will likely be prudent to bring on shorts every couple days forward until we see where this short-term top is going to occur. The SPX 2-hour chart shows long and strong indicators that likely want to see another price high. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Diverging Prices

The red circle shows the VIX popping above the 200-day MA the exact time that the bears slit the bulls throat. The VIX 200 is one of Keystone's key short-term market signals and that cross was called out when it occurred.

The S&P 500 played around with its 200-day at 2765 and then failed in the middle of October. Right now price is coming back up for the potential back kiss. The jobs report is tomorrow morning so anything can happen.

The blue circles highlight the divergence in the VIX and SPX prices. The VIX spikes higher in early October after the 200-day MA gave way, so stocks plummet lower. After a bounce, the SPX collapses again to the second blue circle. The VIX is a smidgeon higher so this confirms the further weakness in the S&P 500 price although the higher high in the VIX is cheesy (middle blue circle for the VIX).

Then, looking at the third blue circle, the most recent, the SPX prints another low. The negativity is rampant. Traders are throwing out the baby, bath water and the sink. Indiscriminate selling. Carnage. Wow. Volatility should be catapulting to the stratosphere, however, the VIX actually slumps away lower to 24.6-ish. That is interesting. Volatility is not impressed with the S&P 500 continuing lower. The VIX is saying do not drop anymore; start a relief rally instead. And it occurs.

The VIX sports a 19-handle below the 20's but the bulls still need the VIX below 15.96 before they can cheer. The bears need to keep pressing volatility higher which makes it easier for them to slap the bulls around. The price divergence in the VIX and SPX provided the basis for the current relief rally. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Battle at the 10 and 12-Month MA's Determines the Fate of the Stock Market

The SPX recovers this week which was expected since the entire month of October was a nosedive lower. When the stock market trends in one direction during a month, the last few days typically finish counter trend.

It is all about the 10 and 12-month MA resistance levels at 2759 and 2743, respectively. As the famous Metallica song says, "Nothing Else Matters." The stock market has fallen into a cyclical bear market for the weeks and months to come when the S&P 500 lost the 12-month at 2743. All hope is lost for stock market bulls unless the SPX can regain the 2743 level. The big-time US Monthly Jobs Report drops in 27 hours so the SPX may want to nuzzle up to the 2743 and park itself there until the BLS brings the tablets down from on high tomorrow morning.

Wage growth is more important than the headline jobs number or unemployment rate. If wages rise, inflation will develop in the weeks and months ahead and the Fed will continue the rate hike path higher; much to the chagrin of President Trump. Stocks will likely retreat if the Fed wants to keep hiking rates.

If wages remain stagnant or retreat, the president will have more reason to badger Chairman Powell to slow down his hiking path. If the Fed becomes more dovish, stocks will likely rally. However, if Powell slows the rate hike path in any way, that may cause investors to lose confidence in the central banks. Once credibility is lost in the Fed and other money-printing central banks, the jig is up. The house of cards is already on shaky ground as evidenced by the October stock market crash.

Powell appears dead-set on continuing the gradual hiking path because he wants to build ammunition for the coming recession (he will then cut rates to stimulate the economy when the bad times occur). Perhaps Powell thinks the recession is coming faster than Wall Street expects?

If the SPX fails from the 2743 level, the stock market is toast and the Armageddon path ahead continues with price likely collapsing to the 20-month MA at 2627 for starters. The cyclical bear will growl into next year. If the SPX overtakes the 12-month MA at 2743, the bulls will cheer and a strong relief rally will be verified. Bulls will next need to overtake the 10-month MA at 2759 which will prove that stock market happiness has just kicked into high-gear once again and the bulls will be running higher. If the 10-month is taken out, price will poke up through the 200-day next no problemmo. If the SPX moves higher and fails at the 10-month, however, and then stumbles lower again and loses the 12-month again, the Armageddon path ahead will occur.

Here are the key moving average levels that can be used to gauge the strength or weakness of the stock market going forward. The stock market is in a cyclical bear market below 2743 for the weeks and months ahead.

2846 = 50-day MA
2821 = 100-day MA
2818 = 20-week MA
2784 = 200 EMA on the 60-minute
2777 = 150-day MA
2765 = 200-day MA
2759 = 10-month MA
2751 = 50-week MA
2743 = 12-month MA
SPX is at 2712
2627 = 20-month MA
2581 = 100-week MA

The 2743-2759 gauntlet dictates the fate of the stock market for the months and perhaps many years ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:30 PM EST Thursday Evening: The SPX continues the upside rally to 2740 with the Monthly Jobs Report on tap tomorrow. The 12-month MA is now at 2751 so this is the key level to watch rather than the 2743 listed above. The circus comes to town tomorrow morning. The drama continues. SPX 2751 determines the fate of the stock market going forward and the bears are currently steering the ship.