On Friday, 10/25/13, the Nikkei dumps -3% and the Shangha Index loses -1.5%. Copper
is weak on worries that the China and Japan economies are slumping and China
may tighten credit. Samsung reports
record profits as consumers prefer the lower-cost electronics. German IFO
business confidence is 107.4 slightly below expectations. The euro
remains elevated at 1.3820 with a high today at 1.3833. The euro strength is hurting earnings for
European stocks. Renault misses earnings estimates and drops -4%. Volvo
misses and is punished -7%. Both are negatively affected by Indian, Russian and
Swiss currency exchange rates. BBVA
(Spanish bank) eliminates its dividend to help clean up the balance sheet and
lower the bad loan ratio. Gucci, a Kering brand, reports the worst sales in
4 years. High-end consumers now prefer
more subtle-looking bags and accessories rather than logo-riddled products.
The higher euro decreases Asian tourism
and takes a bite out of luxury sales. U.K. GDP is +0.8% as expected. Merkel says trust with the U.S. must be
rebuilt. France’s Hollande voices concern over the U.S. spying on friendly
governments. WTIC oil is 97.27 well off the recent
highs with Brent oil at 106.75. PG
earnings are on in line. Global shipping bellwether UPS earnings beat by a penny showing stronger domestic growth and expects another record holiday package-shipping season. AMZN is up +9% despite reporting
a 9 cent loss. In these bizarre markets, just think how far AMZN
would bounce if even more money was lost. The broad indexes move higher after the opening
bell with the SPX testing the recent all-time highs at 1758-1759. Durable Goods Orders are up on aircraft
orders but business spending on office equipment is weak. Consumer Sentiment is weaker than expected but
traders ignore any bad news. Representative Rand
Paul (son of the legendary libertarian Ron Paul), threatens to block the Yellen
nomination as a means to receive an audit of the Federal Reserve. Equities
soften for a few minutes but quickly recover since everyone knows the Federal Reserve
books will always be kept secret and hidden from the American people,
and Yellen
will be confirmed. The broad indexes stumble sideways during the
session and receive a late-day push
higher for the SPX to print a new all-time
intraday high at 1759.82 and new all-time closing high at 1759.77.
The Dow is at 15570 moving through a
sideways range of 14700-15700 for the last 6 months. The Dow Industrials,
representing 30 large blue-chip stocks, are lagging the other major indexes not
able to print new all-time highs. The RUT small
caps printed a new all-time intraday high by pennies but could not print
a new all-time closing high. For the
week, the SPX is up +0.9%, Dow up 1.1%, Nasdaq
+0.7% and RUT +0.3%. In strong bull markets, tech and small caps
should be leading not lagging. The S&P
500 is now trading over 16.5 times earnings which is above the historical
market average at 15.8. The high-flying momentum stocks such as NFLX and
TSLA were hit this week. The 10-year yield is 2.51%. Margin debt jumps 5% over the last month as traders take on
more and more leverage chasing the stock market higher just like the 2000 and
2007 market tops. Equity prices for the major indexes are extended above their
moving averages across monthly, weekly and daily charts, as well as tagging the
upper standard deviation boundaries, indicating that a reversion to the mean
(lower prices) is desperately needed. The low CPC and CPCE put/call ratio’s and low
volatility (VIX) verify the complacency and fearlessness of traders. Everyone
expects easy money QE to continue to March and later so why worry and instead,
everyone is ‘partying like its 1999’, as Prince
says. Snowden,
the NSA whistleblower, now exiled in
Russia, provided the documents that
verify the U.S. spying on 35 world leaders and how senior officials were told to share their cell phone contacts so
foreign politicians could be monitored by the NSA surveillance systems. U.S.
foreign relations are damaged. All
your communications and actions on computers
and cell phones are continuously monitored, recorded and archived a la 1984 (George Orwell).
On Saturday,
10/26/13, further
fallout in Germany-U.S. relations continues due to the NSA spying program since Merkel may
have been under surveillance since 2002. German officials arrive in the U.S. to address
the situation. Thousands of American
citizens rally against the NSA mass surveillance program in Washington. The
movement is called ‘Stop Watching Us’
and website is stopwatching.us. A statement
from Edward Snowden, the whistleblower that uncovered the NSA spying on all
American citizens, is read to the crowd. Folks are concerned over their loss of
liberty and the blatant disregard for the American Constitution. Picket signs support Snowden with messages
such as “Thank You Edward Snowden.”
Folks are fighting back against Big Brother a la 1984. The Financial Times (FT) posts
an article, “This is no time to get off the equity
train.” Protests over bus fares in Brazil escalate
into violence with buses and buildings set ablaze and people injured.
The Obamacare
debacle continues. Folks across all income levels are concerned that their
health insurance premiums are increasing.
Other folks are receiving letters that they are dropped from their existing plans so they will have no choice but
to sign up for Obamacare violating President
Obama’s promise “if you like your health plan, you can keep it.”
----------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 10/27/13,
Obamacare
problems and worries continue as the web site goes completely down due to a
network failure. SNL (Saturday Night Live), a popular Saturday night television comedy show in the
States, spoofs HHS Secretary Sebelius and the Obamacare debacle. Jon Stewart,
an outspoken liberal comedian that always defends the democratic viewpoint, and
other late-night comedians, continue to poke fun at the Obamacare folly. The
worry is that these comedy shows hold a strong 18 to 40 year old demographic, the very people that the president needs to sign up to pay for Obamacare,
and the negative press will hurt the
enrollment, as well as a dysfunctional
web site that frustrates the tech-savvy young folks. Europe is
outraged over the U.S. NSA spying scandal.
The Whitehouse is trying to tone down the concerns. Der Spiegel runs a headline ‘Das Nest’ referencing the roof at the American Embassy in Berlin as a nest of NSA
listening stations. BOJ pledges to continue monetary easing moving forward. 44 children, near the
Fukishima nuclear disaster, have developed thyroid cancer. One million people
developed cancer, leukemia and other radiation-based health ailments from the Chernobyl
nuclear disaster 27 years ago and Fukishima will likely follow suit. The main
stream media ignores the tragedy.
On Monday, 10/28/13,
China Construction Bank profits are in line. Beijing
air quality is so poor that folks must stay indoors. Dollar/yen 97.65. U.K. braces
for the worst storm in 5 years. The eruo
is 1.3807. MRK beats on earnings but misses
on the top line revenue. Guidance is slightly raised but the stock sells off -1.5% pre-market.
Many
analysts are now considering 1900 targets for the SPX next year. Economics
Professor Jeremy Siegel, correct on his market bullish call for this year,
continues the bull mantra, saying the Dow will finish this year between 16K and
17K, and to buy, buy, buy. This anecdotal
evidence verifies the complacency in the
markets shown by the low CPC and
CPCE put/call ratio’s, low VIX and low bearish sentiment in surveys (typically identifying a significant market top in place).
A Blackrock executive dumps more stock
as other high-level insiders in other stocks lighten up on their holdings
as well. Liquidity is pushing the stock
market higher (QE) not fundamentals and many insiders are taking the easy
money profits off the table before it falls apart. The broad indexes are flat to up as the new week of trading begins. The
SPX punches
out new all-time intraday highs. Pending
Home Sales are weaker than expected
indicating softer housing numbers in the weeks
ahead but traders are drunk on the Fed wine believing that QE tapering will not
occur until after March 2014. The broad indexes are pumped to a new
all-time high at 1764.99 and new all-time closing high at 1762.11.
The Dow, Nasdaq and RUT all end the day negative. The Dow Transportation Index, Trannies, print
new all-time highs at 7061. High-flyers such as TSLA, NFLX, YELP and
FB continue to sell off. 10-year yield
is flat at 2.51%. After the bell, AAPL earnings beat on top and bottom lines with sales robust in all categories, however, the
margins are dropping. Apple forecasts the slowest holiday sales in 5 years. AAPL drops -3% on the news but then recovers to the flat line
in AH’s trading. 70% of the stocks in the equities markets are in overbot territory which
typically identifies market tops. President
Obama’s Twitter handle is hacked with links provided to Syrian web sites.
Global
backlash against the NSA spying continues to gather legs with Spain now
requesting answers from the U.S.
concerning the tapping of their communications. The
Obamacare fiasco grows as folks are
complaining about losing their doctors and current health care when the president had promised this would not
happen. Sticker shock is occurring
as many Americans face big increases to
premiums and older folks are forced to buy coverage’s such as maternity and
pre-natal care when they will obviously never need it. The numbers continue to be sketchy since the Whitehouse will not provide information
but it appears that over 80% of the
folks signing up for health care are in need of health care with existing ailments
while the young healthy folks, that must pay for the new program, are signing
up only in very limited numbers. The higher
Obamacare costs (also a broken promise since the president said no one’s premiums would increase—in fact he said the
premiums would drop) and changes to the
food stamp program may dampen the
holiday spending mood, despite relief at the gas pump.
On Tuesday, 10/29/13,
India’s Infosys pays fines to settle litigation
on visa violations. India raises
interest rates to combat inflation. European banks are selling off. Regulators
blindside UBS telling the bank to hold more capital due to litigation costs
and drops -6%. DB must also set aside
more funds to handle litigation, similar to JPM’s woes, and it drops -3%. BP beats on earnings and
raises the divvy so it is rewarded +3%. The
euro is 1.378. Several European companies are lowering earnings estimates
due to currency concerns. Draghi
will have to intervene to lower the euro. President Obama considers a halt to the NSA
spying on Allies but everyone knows the
spying will never end. The German
parliament in Berlin would like to hear more details about the U.S. spying
program from Edward Snowden. News
reports say the Obama Administration
knew that millions would not be allowed to keep their existing health insurance
but the president promised otherwise in his speeches to gain support for the
program. Supporters of Obamacare are now turning into dissenters since their
premiums are increasing. Congress hears
testimony, for the first time ever, concerning an alleged U.S. drone strike on
civilians. A Pakistani family details
the strike which killed the mother of the family one year ago. Retail Sales are a touch weak. CMI reports weak
earnings since diesel engine and truck sales are slipping. GT, a key rubber and
economic bellwether, reports weak results. FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Equities leap higher
at the opening bell. The bulls appear
unstoppable with the SPX jumping to new all-time
highs near 1769. Consumer Confidence is
far weaker than expected dropping almost 9 points to 71.2, however, traders believe any weak data means more Fed easy money
crack cocaine so the stock market moves higher. Traders
become giddy pulsing markets higher expecting more happy QE Infinity news
from the Fed tomorrow. At 11:23 AM, the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMPQ) stops
updating due to a computer glitch but the individual stocks in the index are trading. At 12:40 PM, the Nasdaq begins updating
again. The frozen price is blamed on
a data service feed problem and human error involving the Global Index Data
Service (GIDS 2.0). IBM increases its share buy-back so this creates a +2% pop in the stock and a bounce of
over 30 points in the Dow Industrials. JPM’s legal settlement deal may fall apart causing traders to pause
but the happiness resumes in quick order. The broad indexes end the day at new
all-time highs for the SPX, Dow, Trannies and RUT. The SPX reaches
a new all-time high at 1772.09 and new all-time closing high at 1771.95.
The Dow
prints a new all-time closing high at 15680.35 (but not a new
all-time intraday high). The RUT prints a new all-time high at 1122.64 and new
all-time closing high at 1121.96. The Trannies (TRAN) print a new all-time
high at 7064.67 and a new all-time closing high at 7051.80.
There is no fear at all in the markets.
TSLA trades lower after a video surfaces of
another Model S catching fire on 11/17/13 in Merida, Mexico. After the bell, LNKD, the darling of social media, reports weak results.
In the evening, the cable news channels are in wall-to-wall
coverage about how President Obama lied to the American people for the last 3
years knowing that millions would lose their health coverage but telling them
they would not. In an odd twist of fate for the Obamacare folly, more people have been told they lost their
health coverage than people that have signed up for Obamacare.
On Wednesday, 10/30/13,
onion prices in India have tripled over the
last year creating political angst. Copper, commodity and Asian markets move higher. BIDU results are strong and it jumps +6%. European
markets climb one-half percent. Barclay
reports weak investment banking numbers but traders are content with the
in-line results and the stock pops +3%. The bulls keep running with S&P futures
+4. HHS Secretary Sebelius
testifies befor eth eHouse concerning the Obamacare debacle. ADP Employment Report is a paltry 130K jobs
which is not even enough to employ the new workers entering into the work force
each month. Traders are happy to see weak data
since it means more Fed QE and a higher stock market ahead. Hedge fund manager Larry Fink says markets
are in bubble territory and the Fed needs to begin tapering. HHS Secretary
Sebelius testifies before the House concerning the Obamacare web site debacle. Ironically, the
Obamacare web site is down the whole time she testifies. Sebelius says she
takes responsibility and should be held accountable but does not plan on
resigning so the words do not mean anything. She says the web site will be fixed and fully functional by 11/30/13, only 31
days away. Sebelius promised enrollment
numbers today but continues to refuse to provide the data saying it is
unreliable. The broad
indexes jump higher at the opening bell but run out of gas and leak lower into
lunch time. PIMCO’s Gross says “all asset prices are bubbly.” The
FOMC Meeting Announcement is as expected; the Fed continues the 85 billion per
month purchase program without changes. Equities immediately spike higher but the headline statement is followed by the Fed saying ‘labor market conditions show
some improvement’ and ‘downside risks to the outlook have diminished’. The
Fed also does not mention the government
shutdown so the overall tone on the
economy is more positive than anticipated (thus, less QE, not more, and now
traders are thinking a December or
January taper may be possible). Markets quickly reverse and sell off. The Dow drops over -100 points but recovers. The dollar pops and euro
drops. Commodities and copper weaken on the stronger dollar. The
10-year Treasury yield jumps from 2.48%
to 2.52% then to 2.54% which chases the utility sector lower. At the bell,
the SPX is down
9 points, -0.5% to 1763. The Dow loses 61 points, -0.4%, to 15619. The Nasdaq drops 22
points, -0.6%, to 3931. The RUT is crushed 16 points, -1.5%, to 1105. Tech and small caps lead lower. After the bell, V misses on earnings. SBUX misses on earnings due to weak
China sales and drops -3%. FB earnings are
stellar, however, the tween
participation on FaceBook is dropping off dramatically. Anecdotally, young
people now refer to the popular social site as MomBook. Mobile ad revenue
continues to grow which is a big plus despite the loss of teen interest. FB
pops +18% on the headline earnings but drops back to the flat line during the
conference call. President Obama speaks on
Obamacare and promises to fix the situation. C and
JPM currency traders are placed on leave when it is discovered they colluded
through instant messaging for 3 years exchanging internal information and
potentially rigging the Forex markets. A NBC
News/Wall Street Journal poll shows a large
drop in President Obama’s approval rating with only 42% of the country in favor
of his actions (the lowest level for his presidency thus far) while over
one-half of the country now disapproves of his actions. 70% of the country now
says the U.S. is on the wrong track forward. The 3 years of lying about allowing folks to keep their current health
insurance and doctors is hurting the presidents credibility. NSA Director
General Alexander denies it is accessing American citizen’s information through
back doors at the GOOG, YHOO and other servers.
On Thursday, 10/31/13,
EOM. Happy
Halloween. Asian markets sell off in response
to the weaker U.S. markets. Bad debt on China’s bank balance sheets continues
increasing. Beijing’s tourism drops 50%
this year due to the nasty air pollution.
The BOJ meets and plans to continue
stimulus measures without changes which helps the Asian markets slightly
recover. The BOJ also upgrades GDP
estimates moving forward despite a higher sales tax. Sony cuts profit
forecasts. German retail sales and confidence data falls. Eurozone
inflation is under one percent. Eurozone unemployment rate remains above 12%. With no sign of
inflation and unemployment high, analysts
are now looking for a potential rate cut
at the next ECB meeting Thursday, 11/7/13. ECB’s Nowotny hints at more stimulus
coming in a television interview so the euro weakens to 1.3700 (weaker euro
will send the dollar higher and commodities lower). The dollar, USD,
moves above 80. Royal
Dutch Shell misses on earnings. AB Inbev (Budweiser) beat on earnings but
volumes are dropping. XOM beats on earnings but numbers continue to leak
lower quarter-on-quarter. Chicago PMI is the highest number since 2011 and the
biggest monthly leap higher in over 30 years. Traders are caught off
guard by the robust number and now worry that the Fed’s QE easy money may end
sooner than March 2014. The markets
leak lower into the afternoon. Markets drop into the
closing bell coinciding with a large explosion in Syria. The event is
an Israeli attack on a Russian missile
shipment that was entering the country and destined for Hezbollah. The broad indexes finish the day down about -0.5% with the small caps leading lower. October is the best month for the stock market in 2 years.
September and October are both up which has only occurred 5 times in the last
30 years. The Fed’s easy money pumps the
stock market higher making the wealthy wealthier. The Fed is the markets. For the month, the SPX is up +4.6%, Dow +2.8%, Nasdaq
+3.9%, RUT +2.5%, Trannies +6.0% (big drop in oil) and semiconductors +3.3%. Copper fell -0.5% in October. The euro collapses
from over 1.38 one day ago to below 1.36. European stock indexes are at or near
5 year highs.
On Friday, 11/1/13, China PMI is slightly better than expected (18-month
high) although smaller manufacturers are clearly struggling. Copper
and commodities receive a slight lift. Sony lowers profit forecasts and collapses
-12% losing 2 billion in market cap in a heartbeat. Nissan cuts sales
forecasts. India gold sales are uncharacteristically
slow this year ahead of the Diwali
festival 11/3/13. Renault drops -4%. RBS
sets up an internal bad bank division to handle toxic assets and bad paper.
European banks remain sick since they are unable to implement a Tarp-type
policy like the U.S. in 2009. Revolts
and riots continue in France over the excessive tax policies. Hollande stands
firm on taxing the wealthy, such as soccer stars, despite the disastrous effects.
German
lawmakers meet with Snowden, the NSA whistleblower, to gather more information
on the U.S. spying and potentially offer him a job or have him testify to sort
out the extent of the spying; these actions strain U.S.-Germany relations.
Snowden would like to testify before Congress if possible. The euro is 1.3530
and the dollar is 80.41. Preliminary
information shows that only a shocking miniscule 6 people enrolled into
Obamacare via the web site during the first 24 hours of operation. As of 10/3/13 (two days in), approximately 250
enrollment applications had been processed. This number does not add up since the
Whitehouse said 6 million visitors had accessed the site by 10/3/13. Each day creates further confusion and now
several democrats are distancing themselves from the Obamacare debacle. GOOG,
YHOO, RHAT, ORCL and other tech companies offer help to make the web site
functional. This is not surprising since the tech companies apparently knew the NSA was accessing their data bases
through back doors violating privacy policies but they did nothing (the
large tech companies and government are all in bed together). Fed’s Plosser says an opportunity was
missed to begin the tapering of QE in September. CVX misses on earnings with profit dropping -6%. The
broad indexes open for trading and move sideways. ISM Mfg Index is up strongly. Markets drift
lower since good news is bad news (the Fed may
begin tapering QE if the economy improves). At 10:36 AM, the Nasdaq OMX Group closes the options
exchange due to technical errors. A significant
increase in order entries (probably due to HFT) inhibited the system’s ability
to handle the option volume or to provide accurate quotes. Trading continues on 11 other options
trading platforms. At about 12:30 PM EST, a suicidal, mentally ill man
opens fire at LAX (pronounced L-A-ex; the Los Angeles International Airport)
killing an airport employee. The incident dominates the news coverage. Wall
Street is concerned that the incident is terrorism but this fear quickly
subsides. Equities recover as the
afternoon moves along and the broad
indexes are flat on the day with the SPX and Dow
higher, Nasdaq flat and RUT small caps negative. For
the week, the SPX is flat at +0.11% squeezing out a new weekly high at 1761.64
with a doji candlestick. The Dow is flat
unable to print a new weekly high, about 40 points shy, at 15616. The Nasdaq loses -0.5% this week and the RUT loses -2.0%, a drastic negative change for small caps. The RUT prints an outside reversal week moving higher than the
previous week but then closing below, which is typically a bearish signal for
markets. Energy stocks are weak with CVX the
largest Dow loser. The SPX and Dow
are on a 4-week winning streak. U.S. car and
truck sales slip in October. Gold and oil drop about -3% this week. The
Nadsaq Options Market does not reopen
for trading today. After the bell,
Berkshire (Buffett) misses on earnings but top line revenue beats. The new iPad
sales are strong. RBS suspends two
traders in connection with the Forex currency-fixing scandal. Fed’s Plosser says he is more worried about the exit plan
from QE (but he is a hawk). The Fed wants the banks to test whether they
could survive if the stock market drops 50% in value. Fitch rating
agency revises Spain’s debt outlook to stable from negative. China says
their submarines in the Pacific Ocean are outfitted with nuclear missiles that
can strike American cities.
On Saturday, 11/2/13,
China’s Xi says healthy economic growth is ahead.
Cuts to the food stamp program begin
which will hurt the disadvantaged folks
and also companies such as WMT where the food stamps are typically
redeemed. The
sun has erupted with nearly 30 solar
flares over the last week. This sends radiation and electromagnetic waves
towards earth that may interrupt
communication and other electronic signals. The sun is at solar maximum this year which is the peak of the 11-year solar cycle but the year has
been relatively quiet. Is the giant awakening to end the year stronger? Four of the flares are the stronger X-class.
Interestingly, solar flare eruptions
very often coincide with market selloffs such as the August 2011 waterfall
crash. World-wide earthquakes and storms increase over the last
month.
----------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 11/3/13,
the Obamacare
web site is down for maintenance all weekend long. The concern over
the healthcare law grows as more and more folks, who voted for the president, feel slighted seeing their premiums
double and triple with deductibles increasing. Folks will be forced to pay for such things
as maternity care if you are a senior or a man and prostrate coverage if you
are a woman. The enrollment of only 6
people on the first day is shameful. Nighttime comedian Jay Leno quips “ there are more people that walked on the
moon than signed up for Obamacare.” The enrollment also appears to be weighted towards Medicaid rather than
the healthy young folks the program needs to be financially stable. The contractors warned for over 6 weeks prior
to the Obamacare roll-out that the site is not ready but the administration
kept saying all is fine each day and went ahead with the release anyway. One of the contracts awarded for the
Obamacare web site appears to be an Obama family friend that may have received
a no-bid contract so Congress plans on investigating. People are disappointed in the president telling folks they can keep
their plan for the last 3 years purely so he could get reelected but he
apparently knew all along it was untrue. Further, the president will not acknowledge the lie and now says the plans that
folks liked, and could afford, are ‘bad plans’. Enrollment numbers are promised
by 11/15/13, 12 days away, and the Obamacare web site is supposed to be fixed
and fully operational on 11/30/13, only 27 days away. Major Bradley
turn date occurs today so a window is open over the following days for a major
market move to occur. The turn may have been marked with the Wednesday top. The
Bradley does not predict market direction only that a strong move in one
direction or the other is likely. The new moon occurs. Markets are typically
weak through the new moon. Markets are typically bullish from the last day of
the month through the first four days of the new month.
On Monday, 11/4/13,
Factory Orders 10 AM will create a
market pivot point. Fed’s Powell and Rosengren
speak.
On Tuesday, 11/5/13,
ISM Non-Mfg Index. Fed’s Lacker and Williams speak.
The Twitter IPO (TWTR) is priced.
On Wednesday, 11/6/13,
Mortgage Applications. Leading
Indicators. Oil Inventories. Fed’s Pianalto
speaks. HHS Secretary Sebelius, responsible for the ongoing Obamacare debacle, testifies for the
Senate. The Twitter IPO (TWTR) begins trading on the NYSE.
On Thursday, 11/7/13,
ECB Rate
Decision 7:45 AM EST and Draghi Press Conference 8:30 AM. A rate cut is
expected if not today, than at the December meeting, and will drop the
euro, pop the dollar, and likely send commodities lower. Chain Store
Sales. Challenger Job-Cut Report. GDP. Jobless Claims. Fed’s
Stein speaks. Natty Gas Inventories 10:30 AM. Consumer Credit 3 PM.
On Friday, 11/8/13, Monthly Jobs Report
(one week delayed). Personal
Income and Outlays. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. JOLTS Job
Opening Report. Fed’s Lockhart, Bernanke
and Williams speak. Chairman
Bernanke speaks at 3:30 PM and may impact trading to finish the week.
On Saturday, 11/9/13, ……
------------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 11/10/13, ….
On Monday, 11/11/13,
Veteran’s Day. Banks are Closed but Markets are Open.
On Tuesday, 11/12/13,
Fed’s Fisher, Kocherlakota and Lockhart speak
today. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Chicago Fed National Activity
Index. 3-Year Note Auction. Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator targets 11/12/13 through
12/10/13 as having potential for a major market selloff to begin.
On Wednesday,
11/13/13, Mortgage Applications. Import and Export Prices. Atlanta Fed
Business Inflation Expectations. 10-Year
Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM. Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM.
On Thursday,
11/14/13, International Trade. Jobless
Claims. Productivity and Costs. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil
Inventories (one-day delayed). 30-Year Bond Auction. New Fed Chair Nominee Yellen appears before
the Senate Banking Committee.
On Friday, 11/15/13, OpEx. Empire
State Mfg Survey. Industrial Production. Wholesale Trade 10 AM will create a
market pivot point. The Obama
administration provides detailed enrollment numbers for Obamacare.
On Saturday, 11/16/13, ……
------------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 11/17/13, a full moon occurs. Markets are
typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Monday, 11/18/123,
TIC data. Housing Market Index 10 AM. E-Commerce Retail Sales. Fed’s Plosser and Kocherlakota speak.
On Tuesday, 11/19/13,
Employment Cost Index. Fed’s Evans speaks. Chairman Bernanke speaks 7 PM EST.
On Wednesday,
11/20/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Mortgage
Applications. CPI. Retail Sales. Business
Inventories and Existing Home Sales 10AM will create a market pivot point.
Oil Inventories. Fed’s Bullard speaks. FOMC Minutes 2 PM will create a
market pivot point.
On Thursday,
11/21/13, BOJ
rate and policy decision. The BOJ must deliver more QE to weaken the yen
to send the Nikkei and U.S. equities higher moving into early 2014. If the BOJ
does not deliver the easy money, the yen will strengthen and the Nikkei will
sell off. Asian PMI’s. European PMI’s.
Fed’s Bullard speaks. Jobless Claims. PPI. Philly Fed. Natty Gas Inventories.
10-Year TIPS Auction.
On Friday, 11/22/13,
Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 11/23/13, ….
---------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 11/24/13, ….
On Monday, 11/25/13,
Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 11/26/13,
GDP. Housing Starts. FHFA House Price
Index. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market
pivot point. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. 5-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday,
11/27/13, Mortgage Applications. Durable
Goods Orders. Jobless Claims. Personal
Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market
pivot point. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Leading indicators.
Oil Inventories. Natty Gas Inventories (one-day early). 7-Year Note Auction.
Farm Prices. Markets tend to be bullish moving into and through the
Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
On Thursday,
11/28/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of
Thanksgiving holiday.
On Friday, 11/29/13, Markets Reopen for Trading but Close Early at 1 PM EST.
Today is EOM. Markets are typically
bullish from the last day of the month through the first 4 days of the new
month.
On Saturday, 11/30/13, ….
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On Sunday, 12/1/13, …..
On Monday, 12/2/13,
Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s.
ISM Mfg
Index 10 AM which will create a market pivot point. A new moon
occurs in the evening. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new
moon.
On Tuesday, 12/3/13,
Motor Vehicle Sales.
On Wednesday, 12/4/13,
Mortgage Applications. ADP Employment
Report. International Trade. Productivity and Costs. New Home Sales. ISM
Non-Mfg Index. Oil Inventories. Beige Book 2 PM will create a market pivot point.
On Thursday, 12/5/13,
ECB Rate Decision 7:45 AM EST and Draghi Press
Conference 8:30 AM. A rate cut will drop
the euro, pop the dollar, and likely send commodities lower. Chain Store
Sales. Challenger Job-Cut Report. Jobless Claims. Factory Orders. Natty Gas
Inventories.
On Friday, 12/6/13, Monthly Jobs Report. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Fed’s Plosser speaks. Consumer Credit.
On Saturday, 12/7/13, ….
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On Sunday, 12/8/13, …
On Monday, 12/9/13,
….
On Tuesday, 12/10/13,
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. JOLTS
Job Openings Report. Wholesale Trade.
3-Year Note Auction.
On Wednesday,
12/11/13, Mortgage Applications. Oil Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. Treasury Budget 2 PM.
On Thursday,
12/12/13, Jobless Claims. Retail Sales. Import and Export Prices. Business Inventories. Natty Gas
Inventories. 30-Year Bond Auction.
On Friday, 12/13/13,
PPI. Congress
provides a detailed road map to handle the U.S. budget crisis moving forward.
On Saturday, 12/14/13, …
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On Sunday, 12/15/13,
the initial sign-up
period for Obamacare ends for those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people (mainly
healthy young people) to sign-up by
March, otherwise, the program will start bleeding money and require a
future bailout by the taxpayers.
During Q4, European bank stress tests will begin and take one year
to complete (there are likely 10% of the 128 banks
undercapitalized with no clear way
on how to recapitalize these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is
chosen to keep stretching things out in the hope that the European economyrecovers
before further bad news occurs. Germany’s high court must decide if the
ECB’s OMT program is constitutional. Europe must finalize all plans for the new
banking union.
On Monday, 12/16/13,
Empire State Mfg Index. TIC data. Industrial
Production. 2-Year Note Auction.
On Tuesday, 12/17/13,
FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Is QE taper talk on the table? CPI. Housing Market Index. 5-Year Note
Auction. A full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the
full moon.
On Wednesday, 12/18/13,
Mortgage Applications. Housing Starts. Oil Inventories. 7-Year Note
Auction. FOMC
Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM
which will create a market pivot point. Chairman Bernanke Press
Conference and Q&A from 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM will move markets.
On Thursday, 12/19/13,
BOJ 2-day meeting begins. Jobless Claims. Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales 10 AM
will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories. 5-Year TIPS
Auction.
On Friday, 12/20/13,
BOJ rate and
policy decision. OpEx Quadruple
Witching. GDP.
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 12/21/13, ….
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On Sunday, 12/22/13, ….
On Monday, 12/23/13,
Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago
Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM
will create a market pivot point.
On Tuesday, 12/24/13,
Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House
Price Index. New Home Sales. Richmond
Fed Mfg Index. Markets
Close Early for Christmas Eve.
On Wednesday,
12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of
Christmas holiday.
On Thursday,
12/26/13, Markets
Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil
Inventories.
On Friday, 12/27/13,
Natty Gas Inventories.
On Saturday, 12/28/13, …..
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On Sunday, 12/29/13, …..
On Monday, 12/30/13,
Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.
On Tuesday, 12/31/13,
EOM. EOQ4.
EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago
PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point.
----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------
On Wednesday, 1/1/14,
Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years
holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market
directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The Bradley
turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of
the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the year
may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are
typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Thursday, 1/2/14, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s.
Markets Reopen for Trading. Motor
Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas Inventories.
Oil Inventories (one-day delayed).
On Friday, 1/3/14,
…..
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On Thursday, 1/9/14, a
Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the 1/2/14
through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only
that a strong move will occur one way of the other.
On Wednesday,
1/15/14, a Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the
U.S. government open.
On Thursday, 1/16/14,
a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full
moon.
On Wednesday,
1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last official
two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29) as Chair of the FOMC.
On Friday, 1/31/14,
Chairman
Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New Chair
Yellen takes over.
On Friday, 2/7/14, the Debt
Ceiling Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury
Secretary Lew will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so
late February or early March is a likelier deadline. Winter Olympics
begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
On Wednesday, 3/19/14,
new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her
first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
In February/March
2014, the Fed Chair Yellen testifies before
Congress.
In March 2014, the
ESM is
officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after
delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
In April 2014, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.
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