The watch for the negative divergence top on the SPX daily chart continues. But All Along the Watchtower, the joker said to the thief that the pesky MACD line refuses to roll over and die. No reason to get excited, there are many here among us, that feel life is but a joke. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 7178.74 and new all-time closing high at 7173.91 on Monday, 4/27/26.
The top cannot be called until ALL the chart indicators go neggie d. The red lines show that all the indicators are negatively diverged down away from the rising price except the MACD. It may need a down-up jog to allow time for the MACD line to go neggie d, joining the other indicators, and the top can be called on the daily basis. The MACD is stretched high so the SPX may reverse at anytime regardless of the MACD going neggie d.
The Fed rate decision and Chairman Powell final swan song press conference is tomorrow that will create market drama. Also, Iran is staging many ships ahead of the US naval blockade and you can smell a run at the blockade perhaps on tap. Oil prices rise with both Brent and WTIC over one hundo. That will be a sight and a worldwide event if Iran cranks up a couple dozen ships and tankers and they all motor towards the same spot of the naval blockade. It will not be anything good for the world.
King Donnie Trumpski's Iran War plan now involves sitting and waiting a couple weeks and more until Iran can no longer store anymore oil and will have to shut down plants and wells that are difficult to restart. That is a stupid plan. There are probably 3 weeks of storage still available and maybe they dump the oil out on the ground for a while? Donnie is burning $2 billion a day of US taxpayers money on a strategy that is sitting around and waiting for 2 or 3 weeks hoping a good ending comes to the war and the Strait of Hormuz mess. Good luck.
That weekend gala in Washington, DC, where the corrupt politicians and media comingle perpetuating the filthy crony capitalism system, remains big news. How come no one has asked why the so-called mentalist at the event did not tell everyone ahead of time what was going to happen? People wonder why that nutcase dude went berserk. Maybe he didn't like the veal?
It does not appear the shooter fired the shotgun but the secret service fired about five shots at close range and none of the bullets hit the guy. What size bird shot was loaded in the shotgun (a shotgun shell contains small BB's that spray out)? Double-O (00) buckshot? No one has asked such a simple and obvious question. An agent may have been hit but if it was the shotgun, he would have been hit with BB's in the face, arms and legs. Maybe it was friendly fire, one of those five shots that hit the agent, in that case it would be the Keystone Kops.
There should be no such event where the people reporting on the news are lying in hotel beds with the politicians that create the news. Everyone forgot about Charlie Rose. The 30-year old lip-gloss beauties line up one after another wanting to get an interview with a politician to launch their own media careers. Hello Senator X, I'm Missy and would like to interview you. Well, young lady, I am very busy. I know, sir, but I would not mind if you ran your hand up my leg. Oh, I see, I do have an opening on Wednesday, Missy. We can discuss an interview then. It will be a delightful meeting. And that is what the Whitehouse Correspondents dinner event is all about. How convenient that it is at a hotel. Maybe we can consummate that interview tonight, baby doll? What's Your Name? Come upstairs little girl, and have a drink of champagne, there ain't no shame.
Anyhoo, stocks are up 80% of the time the couple days in front of the Fed meetings. Recently, more retail traders must be aware of this because it is front-run more each time. Traders and investors are bulled-up going into the Fed meeting but is this one of the 20% times?
The put/calls registered the multi-week lows forecasting a major selloff ahead. Remember, the SPX could still pop a hundo or two hundo, and it is up about a 150 points since the put/call lows about 1-1/2 weeks ago. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot. The Fed and the Iran War oil drama are coming to a head right now today and tomorrow.
The expectation is for the dark blue line to occur where stocks drop from here due to the neggie d, or perform a down-up jog move so that would be down today, up tomorrow, for the top. The light blue line shows the outcome if Fed and Iran War happy talk occurs. Stocks will remain buoyant for a few days but not escape the neggie d. The top will simply occur a few more days into the future. The orange gaps will need filled below. It appears that the rest of the week will likely be filled with lots of excitement and drama. There is lots of drama with Fleetwood Mac's live performance since the band had interpersonal relationships with each other. Go Your Own Way. Top-shelf performance. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 6:44 PM EST: Today is a holding pattern day with everyone waiting for Pope Powell to come down from On High tomorrow and tell global traders how to trade. It is Powell's last meeting as chairman so everyone wants to hear what his plans are going forward. Chairman Warsh is on deck. He is up for his approval vote tomorrow so who knows, he may be the chairman by dinner time, instead of Powell waiting 2 more weeks? It will all come out in the Warsh. Today is down due to the the neggie d but the MACD remains pesky. If you are bearish, it would have been better for the SPX price to come out of the gate at the all-time price highs. That, along with the MACD now sloping down, would be neggie d, but instead price and the MACD both went down today together. An up move back to the all-time highs tomorrow would be in order, that would lock in the negative divergence for the MACD, and the top will finally be in on the daily basis, unless Powell has something different in mind. He did pick up his white dove wings at the cleaners this evening. The drama continues. Meatloaf and drama go together. He is now eating that big greasy hamburger in heaven. Everyone remembers high school and the drive-in theater with your honey and experiencing Paradise by the Dashboard Light.
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