CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Historic Complacency and Fearlessness Will Top-Out Stock Market Any Day Forward and Begin Huge Down Move for Equities

Get out of the stock market and save yourself folks, otherwise, you will lose your shirt and be wearing a barrel for the remainder of the year. The CPC put/call ratio drops to a multi-year low at 0.67. Danger Will Robinson! Danger! The rampant bullishness and euphoria, complacency and fearlessness is off the charts. There are only bad things that will happen going forward.

For decades, when the CPC prints a low number in that 0.7 area or lower, stocks topped out within days. It was straightforward. Over the last couple decades, however, due to the Fed's obscene money-printing to protect the wealthy class and other reasons, the CPC and CPCE put/calls have become more schizoid. Nowadays, the top can occur any day forward, or up to about 3 weeks into the future. The only thing you are guaranteed is that stocks are going to take a significant hit starting any day forward, say before April ends or the first week of May. The drawdown will likely run into the summer.

That prior low CPC in June 2024 resulted in a top in stocks in about 3 weeks time that then collapsed from 5670 to 5120 a -10% correction. It would be wise to expect at least a -10% correction since we just did a -10% pullback with a complete recovery. It will likely be -20% and more. Of course, the developing, or in-place neggie d on the hourly, daily and weekly SPX charts can be used to time the pending top.

As mentioned in the previous post, Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so that SPX 7200, and 7220-7230 target remains possible as the top is placed. We are almost there already. Again, use the negative divergence in the shorter time frame charts to time this significant and likely MAJOR top that will occur in the days ahead. It's fun.

The SPX monthly chart is cooked with neggie d so a long-term multi-month pullback should begin. This will be verified on Friday, 5/1/26, May Day, when the new monthly candlestick begins and it will cast the neggie d in concrete and guarantee pain and misery for months, if not a year or two, forward, maybe lots more. As a guesstimate, the SPX is expected to drop from -20% to -70% over the coming months and year or two. To put it in perspective, the portfolio that you are bragging about now at the backyard dinner party, while wearing a sweater around your neck, with nose held high, while sipping wine, will likely be worth one-half that amount a year from now. Good luck. Plan accordingly. Hey! Uh-huh! What I Like About You. Keep on whispering in my ear, tell me all the things I want to hear. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4/18/26: The bullish euphoria and rampant complacency is now in a frenzy state. The CPC drops to 0.66. The Friday orgy was a perfect opportunity to ditch longs and start bringing on, and scaling into, shorts. If you passed that up, you screwed up. Stocks explode higher, perhaps dead-set on printing the SPX 7200, because King Donnie Trumpski proclaims that the Iran War is over and the Hormuz Strait is open. Everything is groovy and it is Mission Accomplished. Do you believe the orange-headed bloviating carnival barker or your lying eyes? Oil prices drop on the Donnie happy talk sending equities into the stratosphere. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 7147.52 and new all-time closing high at 7126.06 on Friday, 4/17/26. The SPX bottomed at 6316 on 3/30/26 and prints 7148 yesterday, an explosive record-setting 832-point rally, a gain of over +13%, in only 14 days. The US stock market (S&P 500: SPX) is rallying at a ridiculous +1% per day since the end of March. It is laughable. Welcome to the filthy crony capitalism casino as the last chips are played over then next few years. Plan carefully going forward so you will not be wearing a barrel. Keybot the Quant remains long and the stock market metrics are universally bullish like the off the charts sentiment. It will be important when Keybot flips short but remember, the robot strives to produce the smoothest path through the trading year so it does not catch the exact tops and exact bottoms. The hourly, daily and weekly charts can be used to identify the major top that will be placed in the days ahead say within 2 to 3 weeks, probably sooner. Right now is the perfect set-up for a crash. Everyone is universally bullish with stocks at parabolic highs. Special times. Since everything is feeling groovy, it is time for the 59th Street Bridge Song. Paul is warming up in the green room.