SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Setting Up with Neggie D

Are yinz having fun yet? Remember, the prior charts show the 2-hour topping out with neggie d forecasting weakness in the VST and that started on Monday. At the same time, the daily chart was not yet topped out with negative divergence, so the bears had more wood to chop before they can create the top in the daily time frame, and that occurs this week with chop suey price action.

The blue lines show the megapone (expansion) pattern previously explained. This daily chart shows the obscene gap-up moves that occurred during the orgy rally (orange circles). Price has tried to fill the top gap a couple times but the dip buyers want higher equity prices and they are willing to buy with both fists. The gap at 6600-6750 is big enough to drive a bus through it. Those gaps will need filled going forward.

Now let's get down to business. You cannot call the top until you see neggie d. For 5 days in a row, price makes matching or higher highs. The SPX, that is the S&P 500, that is the United States stock market, prints a new all-time high at 7147.78 yesterday, 4/23/26, only pennies above the prior all-time high last Friday. Since price remains buoyant, the chart indicators can be assessed for negative divergence.

The red lines show neggie d galore and the RSI and stochastics, even money flow, are at or coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback. There is one fly in the ointment, however. The green line shows that the MACD line remains long and strong and wants to see another matching or higher high in price. Waiting for all the indicators to align can be like herding kittens.

Here is the story. Price should open around the same levels for the regular cash session. If the MACD line drops finally sloping lower, you can call the top on the daily basis. If, however, the MACD line continues higher, price likely needs another jog move (down, up, or up, down, up), so the top on the daily basis will still be a couple days away, say on Monday or Tuesday, to begin the new week of trading. The chart is very close to its neggie d top right now. You will know today if today is the top on the daily basis, or if you have to wait for early next week.

The Aroon verifies the multi-year lows that printed for the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios. The bullishness remains off the charts with traders and investors partying all day long buying any stock with a heartbeat. It is rampant complacency and fearlessness the hallmark of a significant stock market top. The Aroon green line at 100% shows that every single bull expects stocks to go up forever.

It is comical because this pending top is just like the prior top with all the same analysts calling for SPX 8K again and equities going to the moon. The ghost of Irving Fisher appears again hovering above Wall and Broad just like a few months ago. In an eerie voice, Fisher's hologram proclaims that stocks are at a permanently high plateau and will never drop below SPX 7K ever again. This same behavior occurred from the end of last year into February when the wheels fell off the stock market.

JPM raises its SPX target to 8K for this year. Analyst Ed Yardeni proclaims that the bottom was the end of March and you will not see those lows again. Yardeni says buy stocks touting the strong earnings projections ahead. The bulls line up one after another wearing tee shirts that have a picture of Irving Fisher screen printed on the chest. Truist's Keith Lerner says the bull market is battle tested telling folks to buy the dips. He says the tech bull market is strong and has a long way to go. A Bloomberg analyst guarantees that stocks will be higher six months out. Remember, you can't win all the time. You Got to Lose.

Check the MACD line after the opening bell to see if the top is in on the daily basis, or not. Keybot the Quant robot went short yesterday but the move is tenuous. VIX 19.74 is the bull/bear line in the sand that tells you who wins. Bulls win below VIX 19.74 (VIX is at 19.30 in real-time as this is typed). Bears win above VIX 19.74. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.