UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

The sideways symmetrical triangle for the 10-year US Treasury note yield was previously mentioned. Here is a tighter view to see what is going on. It is a textbook sideways symmetrical triangle pattern so far. The vertical side is from 3.5% to 5.0% or 150 basis points. The top rail of the triangle representing a breakout in yield higher (notes and bonds sell off sending price lower and yield higher) is at 4.23% where it was playing around for a couple weeks.

The bottom rail break down in yield lower (notes and bonds are bot sending price higher and yield lower) is at 4.10%. Lo and behold, that is where yield sits now making the critical bounce, or die, decision.

The breakout higher out of the triangle at 4.23% would target 5.73%. Holy smokes. No one is ready for that drama.

The break down lower out of the triangle at 4.10% would target 2.60%. That probably comes with a collapse in the stock market. Hey buddy, can you spare a dime?

Perhaps tomorrow, Friday the 13th, the 10-year yield will show its hand and make a decision on exiting the triangle making some folks lucky, and some unlucky. Bad Luck by Social D. 13's my lucky number, to you it means stay inside, my black cat crosses your path, no reason to run and hide, are you always scratching at the 8-ball? You got, bad, bad luck, you got! Nice wife-beater tee-shirt. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2/13/26, at 5:35 AM EST: It is Friday the 13th so walk softly today. The 10-year yield slips below 4.10% for a flash but buoys back up to 4.12% preferring to stay within the apex of the sideways triangle. Yield is running out of room, however, so it is time to make a decision. Inflation data drops in less than 3 hours that will impact yields.

Note Added 2/14/26: The 10-year yield falls out of the triangle after the inflation data. The 10-year yield falls to 4.05%. A back kiss will likely be needed at 4.10%-4.11% to make sure that down is the direction forward for yields. It is a significant development. Watch it closely over the coming days to see if the down move in yields is sustainable going forward.

Note Added 2/19/26 at 5:03 AM EST: The 10-year yield rises to 4.10%, now at 4.09%, performing the back kiss of the bottom rail of the triangle. It is time to bounce or die. The note and bond bulls (creating higher prices lower yields), will win going forward if they drive yield lower again after a successful back test. The note and bond bears (looking for lower prices higher yields; inflationary behavior) want to see a bounce where the yield returns to the inside of the apex of the triangle and potentially sets up to exit above. The coming days and week or so are critical.

Note Added 3/5/26: The 10-year yield recovers to 4.17% after dropping to 3.92% on 3/2/26. Trumpski's War against Iran is causing global angst with traders not sure how to react.