SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Uber Bullishness and Complacency; Negative Divergence Finally Locks-In the Historic Stock Market Top that Begins a Multi-Month Selloff

Keystone has been describing this historic topping process for the US stock market for the last 5 months. It is a special animal no doubt. Simply look at prior tops that occur over a two-month period, sometimes three, that is it. This current top chops sideways for a few months. The top lingers like the stink from a State Park bathroom.

Well, honey, I'm home. The SPX monthly chart is finally set up to call the long-term top in the US stock market. It is interesting that this could have occurred in October or any month since. Keystone showed you the negative divergence (red lines) at play but there was always one snake in the woodpile that would not yet go neggie d and that was the MACD. See the peak of the MACD line on that thin vertical line that is the start of this year and the centerline of the January candlestick.

The previous SPX monthly charts explained how the long-term top could not yet be called due to the MACD that remained long and strong (sloping higher). The MACD line still had some fumes in the fuel tank to push the SPX price higher or at least buoy price to get it into the next month. Here we are in February, the month with the lonely middle 'r' that no one wants to pronounce; Feb-u-ary. Did you notice that February has its 4 weeks in a perfect block in 2026 with each week running exactly Sunday through Saturday? This will not happen again until 2037. It also means that another Friday the 13th occurs in March.

The new moon, the darkest overnight time of the month, was Tuesday going into Wednesday. Giving a 4 to 5-day window after the new moon, the ideal time for a military strike is now and this window is quickly closing. The US, Israel and Allies have the superior night vision equipment and weaponry so you want to strike in the pitch black darkness of the month if possible (now). Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that is why Keystone's invitation to the Presidents Day bash at the Amvets Hall was rescinded, if King Donnie plans on striking Iran, it is time to sh*t, or get off the pot.

Trumpski said he would decide on a strike against Iran within two weeks. Of course he did. Donnie is "Two-Week" Trump because whenever asked for a time deadline, he always says 2 weeks and it is always an impromptu lie. Hollywood Donnie makes a comment on every subject every day because that keeps the camera on his orange puss; he seeks the daily adoration and notoriety that is the fuel that makes him tick. If Trumpski, that tells Putin to go ahead and kill Ukrainian women, children and the elderly each day, does strike Iran in a few hours, overnight, he will then brag that he did it on Washington's Birthday. Such is the stagecraft and theatrics of modern-day crony capitalism politics.

Anyhoo, the February candlestick is in play and will be cast in concrete next Friday so 5 trading days remain in this short month. Here is what you watch. Huh? Keystone said this and the entire room now looks like an E F Hutton commercial. The all-time record top in the SPX, the S&P 500, the United States stock market, is 7002.28 on 1/28/26. The SPX has not yet closed above 7K. Keystone's "SPX 7K" cap, that is a beanie with a propeller on it, remains hidden in the desk drawer. The all-time record closing high in the SPX is 6978.60 on 1/27/26. For this month, price tags 6993 that is a matching high in price so the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d and the negative divergence is locked in place confirming the top. Stick a fork in it. It's cooked. Crispy-fried.

So what you want to watch is the MACD line on the SPX chart above. It does not matter if price runs higher and prints new all-time highs over coming days or a couple weeks or so. What matters is the MACD line. The indicators have clearly locked-in negative divergence for the stock market top that will begin a long-term selloff with that MACD cat the difficult one to herd. She is in the fold now so the next 5 days she needs to stay in the fold and remain neggie d and that will officially mark the top in the US stock market and it is a bigtime top. The March candlestick begins in 6 trading days on 3/2/26 so check the chart above to make sure the neggie d remains in place, as it should, and then you can call the top.

In early 2018, that was a baby top with only a 3-month pullback with a 4-mth drop later that year. The neggie d spankdown to begin 2020 was down about 4 weeks but it was sharp and fast due to to the panic with the COVID-19 pandemic. The top Keystone called to begin 2022 resulted in a 10-mth drop call it a year. This is what you need to envision for the road ahead. If you do not see this coming, you will get run over. The top Keystone called to begin last year, interestingly, that topped out in February, too, and that was a 4-mth pullback that went sub 48 hundo. Thus, the SPX is topped out now on a monthly basis and a multi-month move lower from 4 months to one year is expected going forward.

The ADX shows that the last strong trend, that was higher, was back in 2018. Note how the strength of the trend actually moved lower with each peak in the SPX over the last 8 years. The Aroon is beautiful if you are a bear. It's Zoolander beautiful. What do you expect to see at an epic and historic stock market top? People euphorically positive and bullish believing that stocks are at a permanent high plateau, a la Irving Fisher in 1929, and everyday is one big stock market party, like now.

Complacency rules the day with no worry about any dramatic drop in stocks occurring in fact, more concerned about buying the dips since stocks are gong to go up forever from here forward. The US government feeds you this dribble as they peddle their sucker stock funds for children that will be used as mechanisms for the wealthy to exit the stock market with their bags of profits. Isn't crony capitalism fun?

The Aroon green line shows that nearly every single stock market bull believes that stocks will go up forever. No surprise, right? Everyone is bullish. The Uber driver just put his life savings into tech stocks. The Aroon red line is at zero. That means every single stock market bear, bar none, also believe that the stock market will go up forever. Paging Irving Fisher. Paging Irving Fisher. Please report to the front desk. We have a top that wants to talk to you.

The 10-mth MA at 6598 is an early warning system that old-timer's use to announce stock market trouble. That will probably open the door to the important 12-mth MA at 6430 that is a bull/bear market dividing line. Who's that laughing in the back of the class. Stand up, you there, with the fleece vest. What is so funny, Sonny? You do not think the SPX will ever see 6400 again? You be stupid, sit down moron. The upper band is violated so the middle band, that is also the 20-mth MA, at 6185, is in play and the lower band at 5199 and rising. Price has respected the 50-mth MA at 5109 and rising as support (blue circles). Price may want to at least come down to the 100-mth MA at 4188 that served as support for the COVID-19 pandemic.

There is lots of fun ahead. Are you ready? Obviously, if you are new to trading, a novice trader, or wet behind the ears, get out of the stock market, idiot. Otherwise, you will lose your shirt over the next couple years. If you want to remain stubbornly long, you should be bringing on nothing but short positions going forward such as inverse ETF's. At least that may cover some of your coming losses in the months forward albeit with a loin cloth. Good luck all. Let the festivities begin. Time to rock n roll all night and party every day. Live in the moment folks, that is all you got. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.