DVY Dividend ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Dividend Stocks About to Receive a Multi-Week Smackdown

Everybody loves their divvy. Everyone is brainwashed into the divvy compounding cult going forward. Investors puff their chests out as they proclaim, "I only buy dividend-producing stocks." Divvy, divvy, divvy, you get dizzy, I'm so dizzy my head is spinning, I'm so dizzy, I can't see. Tommy Roe.

Like Pavlov's dog, any time someone hears the word dividend they hit the buy, buy, buy button without thinking twice. There are likely lots of young folks in dividend-producing stocks looking forward to gaining wealth and compounding price upside and dividends. So is a lot of other people. In fact the chart above shows everyone and his bro are into dividend stocks with the same idea. All the folks chasing dividend stocks are slapping each other on the back proclaiming how smart they are for owning the big dividend producers (bloated behemoths).

Going forward in America, the coming decades will not be like prior decades. The population was increasing into the new century driving stock markets higher. More people, production and wealth was the steady path ahead, until now, when young folks cannot afford to have families anymore. The US is on the downside of the baby boomer stuff.

Baby boomers that have lots of bucks in stocks will pull that out as they pay for their health problems and continue to help their adult children that cannot support themselves. A young person working as a barista at Starbucks is not going to step in and buy the stock that the older folks are cashing-out. Think about the demographics going forward before listening to the talking heads on television and the internet that have one arm around your shoulder like your best friend, but the other hand is reaching in your back pocket.

Anyhoo, DVY price prints a higher high and another touch of the bearish rising wedge pattern. The chart indicators are all negatively diverged so DVY is cooked. Crispy-fried. Stick a fork in it. The top is in and a multi-week pullback should begin, and this week is the first week of pulling back as the red candlestick shows.

Interestingly, the chart was already neggie d at the start of October, and it received a spankdown, but it recovered. That was due to the Fed rate cut talk and AI hype and other happy talk. It is odd. There was no reason for DVY to come back up for a higher high after the October top, but it did. And look how drastically lower the chart indicators are now; completely out of gas and neggie d.

The bottom rail of the rising red wedge is in play as support; price stopped there today at 142 to sit on the rail and make a bounce or die decision tomorrow. Below is the 20-wk MA at 139 that served as support over the last couple months. If she fails, the rout will be on and all of you divvy chasers will be running for your lives losing your money. That will be fun to watch. The 137-ish is strong price support and another downside target.

The drops from rising wedge patterns can be quite dramatic so if you are long divvy stocks, and start to see price drop, you may want to begin clenching your buttocks.

The move higher in late 2024 was a strong trend higher as the pink box for the ADX shows but despite higher prices over the last year, the move higher is not considered a strong trend higher. The Aroon green line shows that nearly every DVY bull remains bullish expecting the stock to go up forever. Comically, the red line shows that nearly every DVY bear also believes that the stock will go up forever. Everyone is on the DVY bull side of the boat as the craft begins swaying and rocking to and fro.

If you own a lot of dividend-producing stocks such as MO, F, STX, VZ, PFE, EIX, ES, KEY, ADM and D, you are about to have a religious experience to end the year. That is appropriate considering the time of year. Bend over and assume the position. Keystone is not playing DVY long or short right now but the preferred play going forward would be to short DVY.

Hold on, let's check the shorter term charts for clues or to help with the timing if you want to go short. Wow. That is cool. On the DVY daily chart, you can see a megaphone pattern, or expansion pattern, plain as day. She tapped the top rail of the megaphone 5 days ago so the moive down to the bottom of the expansion pattern would be..... wait for it ...... wait a bit longer ..... 137-ish. The DVY started receiving the neggie d spankdown on Monday. DVY should remain soggy and drop lower and lower for a few weeks perhaps through the end of the year. DVY may drop sharply from the rising wedge any day forward.

Do you like divvy stocks? Did you always feel smart because you owned them? Assume the position. The hippest Christmas song. Run Run Rudolph. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Do Not Forget Those in Need During the Holiday Season

It is the holiday season so do not forget those in need. Food banks are getting whacked this year as the need is high and the supplies lower especially as US funding programs dry-up or disappear. Local food banks are always looking for volunteers, as are local thrift stores and other places.

If you have clothes or wares to donate, and you do, do not give them to the big-box thrift conglomerate that starts with a G. Half that stuff goes into people's pockets. Instead, search out the poor town that is near where you live and you will find that there is a thrift store there, perhaps one block back from the main street. Give your donations to those thrift stores since the blue-haired gals know who is in need in the community including the working poor. They will also typically take canned goods and other food donations.

Wounded Warriors, Tunnel to Towers, the Gary Sinese Foundation, and lots of other charities can always use donations. Humorously, if you need return address labels for the snail mail you send, do not give $15 bucks to Scamazon. Instead, write a check or donate that $15 directly to a charity of your choice and it is guaranteed that you will receive endless address labels for yourself. The charities provide the free address labels hoping that will entice you into donating in the future. Comically, Keystone has 80,000 return address labels that will never be used.

And do not forget building materials and things for the house or garage that were never used. Maybe you have a new window, or door, that was never installed, or kept the old one after it was replaced and it is still in good shape. That stuff can go to Habitat for Humanity that was started by former President Jimmy Carter. They will take any building materials leftover from jobs. There should be a location near you and you can call them if you have any questions. So you no longer have an excuse not to clean the garage. Load up the stuff that is still usable by handymen and drive it down to the Habitat for Humanity location. They will be happy to take it and use some of it on the houses they fix, or build, for the poor.

So there are lots of ways to help those less fortunate. If you go to bed hungry and your stomach is growling as a child, it is something you never forget in life. So donate to your local community to help others and you may find that it actually helps yourself. Merry Christmas to all and Happy Holidays.

It was an annual event for Darlene Love to sing "Christmas" on Letterman each year. What a beautiful lady with a powerful voice. She was born to perform.

DUST 2x Inverse Gold Miner ETF Weekly Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation; Price Extended

DUST is done and dusted, but the 2x inverse gold miners ETF wants to rise like a phoenix from the ashes. The gold miners, GDX, and the juniors, GDXJ, are moon shots along with gold this year. The gold bugs finally have their day in the sunshine receiving big gains for their loyalty to the yellow metal.

DUST moves lower when the gold miners, such as GDX, move higher, and DUST moves higher when GDX moves lower. This explains the severe beating on display above. A couple charts ago, Keystone talked about gold and the miners developing, or at, a neggie d top.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we never sat at the cool kid's table, DUST should be in positive divergence (if gold and GDX are in negative divergence) and the chart clearly shows that to be the case (green lines). Price is fueled-up ready for a trip higher, a rocket launch, on the weekly basis. The green falling wedge and oversold conditions are also bullish set-ups. Ditto price extended below the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion higher.

If you bring up the DUST daily chart, that is also possie d across all chart indicators. If you bring up the DUST 2-hour chart, that is also possie d. Keystone pulled the trigger. Pull it! Pull it! Pull it! Shoot to Thrill. Play to kill. Too many women, too many pills. There's only one Angus. No smartphones in that crowd; life was better.

Anyhoo, many traders have stepped up to the plate to catch the DUST falling knife over the last year and some are only left with bloody stumps. The BPGDM, bullish percent gold miners, hit 100% in August and it is odd that gold miners have not cracked yet. The constant Powell drumbeat of rate cuts maintains a soggy dollar and a weak dollar sends gold, and the folks that mine the gold, to the moon.

One week from now, Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High to tell everyone how to trade the crony capitalism system so those comments and the rate decision will impact, stocks, bonds, dollar, gold, etc..

Keystone bot DUST today once the 2-hour, daily and weekly charts were all set up with possie d. Another potential trade would be shorting GDX and even shorting individual gold miner names. It is usually a fool's errand to jump in front of a fast-moving gold and gold miner train but Keystone wants to find out if that is the gold train or instead the light at the end of the tunnel paving the way to gold miners in retreat. Long DUST is a speculative trade not for the faint of heart. Going against a strong gold and gold miner trade this year is high-risk trading but, no guts, no glory.

DUST violated the lower band so the middle band at 13.73 and falling sharply is on the table. Ditto the upper band at 22.65 and falling sharply. The ADX is off the charts and only has one direction to go in; down. The ADX did not identify the long painful road lower as a strong trend lower until the summertime (ADX over 28-ish). This would be expected to roll over and go sub 30 as time plays out.

Knowing that gold and gold miners are a moon shot, how do you think the Aroon looks? Yes, the red line shows that all the DUST bears remain bearish and expect the chart to continue lower and lower. Humorously, the green line shows that nearly all the DUST bulls expect the chart to go lower and lower. There are no DUST bulls; zilch. Everyone has given up on DUST and expects gold miners to move higher in price forever. Well, there is one DUST bull now; Keystone. Dust bowl; that is funny. It will be fun to watch. Maybe not if DUST continues lower. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Slipping into Weekly Downtrend Forecasting Big Trouble if it Continues

Kitty is scared after seeing the utility chart and runs away to hide under the bed. Lots of drama is occurring with the utes as the stock market decides if a major top is printing right now. The utilities are playing a role in deciding who wins on the road ahead. That is why the old-timer's watch them.

The 15-week lookback confirms either a weekly uptrend or downtrend and the broad stock market follows. The 50-wk MA, now at 1056, is a line in the sand where very bad things happen to the stock market if it fails.

Thus, for this week, the closing price to compare to 15 weeks ago was 1109.48 (orange circle). Price fell through 1109 today creating some of the day's sogginess with stocks. UTIL continues lower to 1093 an ominous development but few know what to watch especially when they are whistling past the cemetery. Pet Sematary by the great Ramones. Joey's voice will be haunting forever.

Thus, for this week, the bulls need to push UTIL back above 1109 or they will be in trouble. New record highs will not occur unless the bulls push UTIL back above 1109 this week.

For next week, the week of 12/8/25, with the Fed decision on 12/10/25, the 1109.48 becomes meaningless and is replaced with 1088.74 (light blue circle). For the week after that, the week of 12/15/25, the 1088.74 will be meaningless and replaced with 1078.53 (purple circle). Note that after that, the comparison numbers increase (gray line) so it is easier for the bulls to keep their heads above water over the next 2-1/2 weeks, but after that, the bears have an advantage going forward.

Of course, if utes continue lower now, it will be all negativity and doom and gloom ahead. The 50-wk MA at 1056 is a trap-door for the stock market. If it fails, the SPX will dump 30 or 40 points within a few hours and the stock market will be in a crash profile (there is a high liklihood that stocks may crash). At the least, big percentage moves lower would be expected going forward.

So you want to assemble the pieces above into a mosaic that can paint the future. If UTIL recovers above 1109, the bulls will be celebrating bigtime and will carry stocks higher into year end 'singing songs and carryin' on, all night long'. Sounds like a Hank Williams Jr song. Family Tradition.

The stock market is in trouble if UTIL remains below 1109 this week. If 1056 fails, the stock market will be falling in earnest. Since 1089 is the key number for next week, watch the closing price on Friday for this week. If UTIL ends the week below 1089, there will be Hell to pay next week and all eyes will be watching to see if the 1056 fails that will usher-in Hell on Earth. It's fun. Now you know what to watch.

We need some Jose Feliciano to liven up this joint. Feliz Navidad. Come on ladies, get on the dance floor and start shaking your money-maker's. Even white folks can find some rhythm listening to Jose. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 12/3/25: UTIL drops to 1085 and finishes the day at 1089. Kitty is very afraid of the ute chart and refuses to come out from under the bed. The time has come. Beds Are Burning.