Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side yesterday afternoon at SPX 6348 after the copper crash comes out of left field due to the King Donnie Trade and Tariff War. The crash in the red metal was more important than the Fed decision and occurred before Pope Powell's presser.

Everyone is focused on tech due to earnings happiness but copper is the BMOC (big man on campus). If XRT loses -1.6% (retail stocks) and/or XLF loses -2.0%, that will tell you that the downside in equities has legs. If both remain bullish, stocks will likely remain buoyant.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Negative Divergence; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Price Extended; Upper Band Violation; SPX Printing All-Time Record Highs with Historic 2025 AI Bubble Top At Hand

Tomorrow is key for more earnings reports and the EOM. Friday is important for the US Monthly Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST where the unemployment rate is key, as Chairman Powell said today, and of course King Donnie's tariff deadline is Friday, 8/1/25. But stuff all this noise into the end of a trombone because there is an event on Friday that is more important than all this dribble. What is it? The SPX monthly chart will start another candlestick on Friday for the month of August providing further insight into the historic 2025 AI Bubble top.

The euphoric bullishness continues in the stock market reminiscent of, and rhyming with, the Dot-Com Bubble in 1999/2000. The party was, and now is, in full swing with traders drunk as skunks picking stocks by throwing darts at the stock pages since all tickers go up forever. Tech can do no wrong so the Silicon Valley crowd, donning their flannel vests that sport a company logo, say the AI stocks will go up forever. The shoeshine boy, doorman, taxicab driver, Uber driver, and valet, are betting entire paychecks on triple-leveraged long ETF's bragging that they will be rich in quick order.

In the break room, loser Larry is boasting to pretty Emily, the administrative assistant, proclaiming that he is the next Jesse Livermore, a stock market guru, and will be a millionaire in quick order. Emily laughs, almost spilling her almond milk, proclaiming that she would never date a man that does not understand or respect negative divergence on the SPX monthly.

Anyhoo, the SPX monthly chart timeline is months and years; think long-term (LT). The jump off the April bottom is impressive with a big thrust but only serving to print a historic top that will likely be called the 2025 AI Bubble in the future. Note how price makes the new high on the monthly basis but every chart indicator is sloping down (negatively diverging) away from price that floats higher. The chart is out of gas and at a historic top due to universal negative divergence. The rising wedge pattern is bearish.

The RSI is trying to get above the prior high to prove that the bulls can stretch the top out for another month or two but as of now, the chart is a piece of sh*t ready to begin a multi-month and perhaps multi-year move lower. That is why the new candlestick is important starting Friday for Aust and it should maintain the neggie d top formation.

The all-time record high is 6409.26 on 7/29/25 and all-time closing high at 6389.77 on 7/28/25. Price almost touches the upper band at 6464. It is close enough for government work but do not be surprised if the bulls squeeze-out 6464 by week-end. S&P futures pop 50 handles this evening so that is a done deal if the joy holds through tomorrow. This opens the door to the middle band, the 20-mth MA, at 5597, and rising. The 10-month MA at 5927 and 12-mth MA at 5890 are important support levels. The 10 is an early warning signal that the stock market is in extremely serious trouble on the verge of crashing. A drop through 5890 would be lights out for equities setting up a drop to the April lows.

Price is over extended to the upside above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. Just think, price should eventually go below the 200-mth MA at 2.7K and rising. Keystone calls the May 2015 top the last legitimate top in the stock market. Everything after that through now is a pile of pig slop where the crony capitalism made the wealthy class filthy rich at the expense of everyone else. It is easily conceivable that stocks will fall for the next year or two and end up sub 4K and probably down in the 1800-2200 range eventually. What fun it will be.

The ADX indicates that the last strong trend was higher in 2018. Despite the euphoric rally to all-time greatness in 2025, none of the last 7 years was considered a strong trend higher. The ADX now trails off to 22 heading lower even less inspired. For all-time record highs, the SPX should be above 30 running higher.

The Aroon verifies the euphoric out of control bullishness at play that further reinforces the AI Bubble top. The green line shows that 100% of the bulls remain 100% bullish; no surprise there, right? The red line shows that basically all the bears are also bullish. Pause for laughter. The bears are as rare as hen teeth and Keystone is told to walk the plank for his blasphemy against the stock market but the charts and technicals say, Sell, Mortimer, Sell.

When she cracks, it will likely be due to the banks and retail stocks so pay attention to those two sectors. Copper is in collapse. Look at the volume candlesticks above and big volume selling in February, March and April. The buying volume now is unable to surpass the selling volume in the spring; another negative. Joe Retail is buying but the institutions are backing away all too happy to slough-off shares to Joe, Carlos Bagholder and Carmelita Sucka that hangs out on Alvarado Street. 

Get out of the stock market and let that cash sit in your brokerage account for the next few months until you see what happens. If you remain in the market, you will lose your shirt and frantically call your financial manager complaining that he said the tech stocks were sure-fire winners. As you lose your shirt, the money manager will remind you that you are a long-term investor that means he hopes you are a sucker that stays in stocks while his old butt can exit and keep his dough for retirement. Pump and dump.

Plan accordingly. Looking at the long-term S&P 500 chart above, it is financial malpractice to tell clients to keep investing in stocks going forward. The chart above can serve as a reference as the new August candlestick plays out for the first few days of the month. You are watching an epic top take place in real-time. Are you ready? Good ole Ozzie kicked the bucket. In his dying breaths, the Prince of Darkness was singing, "Mama, I'm Coming Home," and he did. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/2/25: The SPX prints two outside reversal days and an outside reversal week not a good sign for going forward. The SPX loses -1.5% yesterday and is down -2.4% this week to 6238. The SPX placed the record top at 6427.02 on Thursday and then falls on its sword collapsing, or mini-crashing, almost 2-hundo points in less than 2 days, into a Black Friday, or let's call it a mini-Black Friday. Let the festivities begin.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Charts Comparing 1999 Dot-Com Bubble Top to the 2025 AI Bubble Top

Oppenheimer's permabull chief strategist, John Dufus, er Stoltzfus, receives the honorary Irving Fisher award. Stoltzfus changes his SPX target for the third time this year now claiming that SPX will hit 7100 in the weeks and months ahead. The call is the same as Irving Fisher proclaiming that stocks are sitting on a permanently high plateau with no fear of dropping--right before the 1929 stock market crash. It is hilarious stuff.

Strategist Mike Wilson, a born-again permabull, laughs at the SPX 7100 target decreeing that 7200 will occur before the middle of next year (that would be an 80-point gain in the S&P 500 every month forward for the next 10 consecutive months). The bullishness remains off the charts during this two-month topping process. We can give both men the honorary Irving Fisher award.

Don't these dolts look at charts? Obviously, not. The SPX monthly chart remains in full negative divergence across all chart indicators forecasting a historic top currently that will begin a multi-month and likely multi-year move lower for US stocks. Friday is most important because a new candlestick will begin for the monthly chart and provide more insight into this historic AI Bubble top.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high today, 7/29/25, at 6409.26, but the all-time closing high remains at 6389.77 on 7/28/25. Today was an outside reversal day on the daily chart a bad omen going forward.

The AI Bubble now is a repeat of the Dot-Com Bubble in 1999/2000. If you dare hint that you are bearish, you will be shouted down, ridiculed, and drawn and quartered for such blasphemy! It is the same exact vibe in 1999 and 2008/2009. It is fun to watch. Keystone thinks of Larry Wachtel during the dot-com top warning folks on television to get out because the stock market is making a major top. He was laughed at and ridiculed although no one could dislike Larry; he was a great dude. And he was the only one that was right.

The SPX daily, weekly and monthly charts remain in full neggie d calling-out a historic stock market top. The rampant complacency and bullish euphoria has not been addressed for two months running due to King Donnie pumping stocks with daily happy tariff talk and Pope Powell ready to cut rates, but not tomorrow.

The MACD is trying to squeeze-out some more upside on a weekly basis but even if it moves higher, it would only extend the top another week or two. Even if an indicator on the monthly chart would manage to print a higher high, it would only result in a jog move of a month or two to again print the epic top we are now experiencing. Get out of your longs and let that capital sit in your brokerage account for the next few months or longer, at least until 2026. Go to the beach. If you stay engaged on the long side, your LT buy and hold strategy is going to get shoved up your arse.

The only thing that can improve the picture is Chairman Powell tomorrow, or the yearnings from four big tech companies this week, or the Jobs Report on Friday, but like the previous paragraph states, you are only talking incremental moves to extend the top before she collapses.

It will be interesting to see if Powell can pull a rabbit out of his hat tomorrow. A rate cut is not expected; it sure would be a shock if he went for it. The key will be his presser and how dovish he is for a September cut. The focus on the Jobs Report will be the unemployment rate.

The table is set. Stoltzfus and Wilson are the standard bearers of the Irving Fisher legacy proclaiming that stocks are at a permanently high plateau and can only go higher above SPX 7K and far higher. Both men have already ordered SPX 7K hats that are sitting in two cardboard boxes in the lobby. Stoltzfus will likely lower his SPX target in a couple months.

Black Wednesday? If stocks collapse, they typically never bottom on a Wednesday so any weakness in equities tomorrow would forecast further weakness ahead. Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market (Keybot the Quant algorithm) but the technicals say get out if you are holding longs (The Keystone Speculator's charts). Everyone is waiting for tomorrow. Today. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/30/25, at 6:06 PM EST: After the smoke clears from the Chairman Powell press conference and rate decision to remain on hold with rates, as expected, the 10-year yield now sits at 4.37%. The SPX pulls back a hair to 6362. The 20-day MA support is at 6299 so that would be the first test on the downside.

UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow 7/30/25

The big FOMC rate decision and Chairman Powell presser are on tap tomorrow and should move markets. No cut is expected so King Donnie, with the impatient adolescent mind, will be quick to badger Powell with baby tweets. The 10-year yield has been working towards this decision for almost 2 years.

The blue lines show two sideways symmetrical triangles so yield needs to decide what direction to move. It is time to sh*t, or get off the pot, as dear ole Ma would say. Keystone likes to use the second touch in from the end as the estimate for the future move and that is about 1.1% difference for the dark blue and about 0.7% for the light blue pattern. Note how yield sits at 4.33% above the 50-wk MA floor of support at 4.30% but below the 20-wk MA ceiling of resistance at 4.36%.

The moving averages are lining out sideways adding further credibility to the sideways symmetrical triangles. The bands are moving in tight (purple arrows), the tightest they have been for the last 3 years and more, forecasting a big move out of the triangles. The question is which way?

If yield moves up through 4.36%, moving higher, it will test the upper band at 4.59%, and if that is pierced to the upside, the 5.06% to 5.46% range will be the target going forward on the weekly basis.

If yield drops through 4.30%, moving lower, it will test the lower band at 4.13%, and if that fails, yield will likely drop to the 3.2% to 3.6% range going forward.

King Donnie is stomping up and down throwing a tantrum. He wants a rate cut and he wants it now. Daddy, give me a rate cut like you gave me a half billion and set up my real estate business. Donnie, You're So Impatient. Blacky is playing his handmade Martin made in Pennsylvania. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/30/25, at 5:56 PM EST: After the smoke clears from the Chairman Powell press conference and rate decision to remain on hold with rates, as expected, the 10-year yield now sits at 4.37%. The door creaks slightly open lighting the path to 4.59%, like the private detective at the top of the stairs in Psycho. 

Note Added Saturday, 8/2/25: Screech! Screech! Screech! Arrggh! Yield is stabbed in the face by Norman Bates, falling backwards down the stairs, and then meeting its fate. The 10-year yield drops to 4.22%. The stock market collapses so some of that money goes into buying Treasuries so note and bond prices go up and yields down.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Remains at Lows Signaling Rampant Complacency and a Significant Stock Market Top

The stock market is taking its good ole time to top-out due to the King Donnie daily happy talk and the ongoing expectations and guarantees for rate cuts. Traders and investors have been touting rate cuts all year long. Do you think they are priced-in to the stock market? (In America's corrupt crony capitalism system, the Federal Reserve always steps-in to protect the wealthy class by cutting rates that sends stocks to the moon (the rich own the stock market). Fed members are rewarded for their dovishness with lucrative token speaking engagements hosted by the Wall Street investment banks once they leave office. It is called crony capitalism filth.)

Anyhoo, get back! She's ready to blow! Take cover! Hit the deck! The 2/19/25 stock market top was straight forward compared to the last 2-month's mess. When the CPC put/call ratio drops significantly and prints low numbers, that signals rampant complacency in the stock market and a top at hand. The stock market would typically top-out in a few days after the low CPC but over the last couple decades that signal has morphed into a few days to one month time frame for the top to occur. The current top is in a league all its own now topping out for two solid months. Traders believe in the rate cuts and are holding on the long side believing Everything's Gonna Work Out Right as Joe Grushecky and the Houserockers play in Da Burgh.

The tariffs have not bit yet although the inflation data shows buoyancy occurring now so the impact will be felt going forward. American consumers will be paying for the tariffs. King Donnie knows this; he is not that stupid. This is why he badgers Fed Chairman Powell every 10 minutes to cut rates. Trumpski knows that consumers are going to start screaming as prices remain high and moving higher and he wants rate cuts to soothe the pain that he is causing.

The chart above tells you what is in store. Don't Buy the Liverwurst. The SPX has gaps to fill on the downside all the way to the April lows. The SPX daily chart remains in universal negative divergence and is completely topped-out. The only thing that can change it is happy news that is unknown currently. The daily Donnie hype and expectation for rate cuts keeps the stock market in suspended animation at the record highs. The SPX weekly chart is critical to firmly calling the top. It is in neggie d across all indicators over the last few months but shows the short-term thrust. A new candlestick will begin today and the expectation is that stocks will top-out on the weekly basis anytime over the next couple weeks.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6315.61 on 7/18/25 and the all-time closing high is at 6297.36 on 7/17/25.

This is interesting stuff. You are born during a time where you are watching the implosion of America's crony capitalism system. The coming months and couple years or so are going to knock your socks off. If you are a young person with cash burning a hole in your pocket, stay away from the stock market. Ditch your longs and just let that dough sit in your brokerage account for the next few months.

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, remains long the stock market since 6/2/25 going on 7 weeks. If you remain long the stock market, make sure your shoelaces are tied because you are picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer that cannot stop. Everybody Laughs as David Byrne sings his new song but soon all will be crying. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

USD US Dollar Daily and Weekly Charts; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Falling Wedges

This week we find out if the dollar shorts panic and create an epic and historic short-covering rally. Keystone posted the dollar and gold charts previously if you want to scroll back and read that analysis. The MACD on the weekly chart was not yet possie d so price played around for a while, printing a 96-handle, and now popping to 97.87.

The shorts are not convinced of any rally happening anytime soon. The dollar shorts are looking to put on more shorts. They are going to end up soiling their shorts. Both the dialy and weekly charts are set up with universal positive divergence across all chart indicators as price made new lows and the possie d launch higher has started. The falling green wedge patterns are bullish.

On the daily chart, you can see the indicators are long and strong wanting more higher highs in dollar price on the daily basis so any pullback should not be significant. The dollar plays around at the support/resistance at the 20-day MA at 97.73 so it is time to bounce, or die. The charts say bounce and continue a multi-day and multi-week rally ahead.

The black circle shows the death cross and the dollar rallies after it occurs, as Keystone has talked about many times (the opposite of what television a-holes say), and the dollar then rolled over and died so the death cross was a good predictor of the weakness ahead. Note how price hit its head on the 50-day MA resistance, now at 98.88, during May and June but was spanked back down. That means when price punches up through the 50, the shorts are going to get squeezed by their short hairs and start screaming to cover. The 98.88 resistance is bigtime important.

The weekly chart shows the blue channel at 100-106. Three of the moving averages are converging at 103 so that would be quite a site if the dollar catapulted higher due to a short-covering squeeze and popped to 103 in only a couple-three weeks time or sooner. That would be fun to watch. Gold will likely soften as the dollar rallies.

Taking into account the critical 98.88, call it 99, and there is strong price resistance at 99 and one hundo, the stage is set. Keystone is not playing the currencies now long or short including the dollar. The Heat Is On this summer with the relentless humidity. It is so hot, Keystone saw a dog chasing a cat, and they both were walking. Perhaps this week the heat will be on the dollar as the shorts are squeezed? What do you think? The dollar may experience a historic rocket launch to the moon this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day, 7/16/25, at 6:08 AM EST: The US dollar rises to 98.56 off the 98.63 high. The 50-day MA resistance is at 98.81 only pennies away. That is likely where the dollar shorts will panic and also where the robots may abandon short positions through programmed trading. On the daily chart, the stochastics are way overbot so a pullback for a couple days would not be surprising but the MACD and histogram remain long and strong wanting more highs in the daily timeframe. The weekly chart is off the bottom and pointing to a sustainable multi-week rally ahead. The dollar is receiving its possie d rocket launch. The dollar shorts are clenching their buttocks.

Note Added Monday Morning, 7/21/25, at 5:34 AM EST: USD is at 98.27 and printed at 98.90 last week testing the 50-day MA resistance now at 98.66 and inching lower. The battle continues.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/30/25, at 6:26 PM EST: The USD pops to 99.90 with a HOD at 99.98 after the Chairman Powell press conference and rate decision to remain on hold with rates, as expected, the 10-year yield now sits at 4.37%. The dollar is moving higher for 5 straight weeks so the analysts, the anal cysts, are all backpedaling on their dollar short calls assigning many different reasons for the recovery in the dollar. We all know what the reason is for the dixie rally, right? Yes, positive divergence rocket launched the dollar. Everything else you hear is dribble. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Negative Divergence Developing; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Upper Band Violation; Golden Cross; All-Time High at 6285 and All-Time Closing High at 6279; Euphoric Bullishness and Uber Complacency Reminiscent of the Dot-Com Bubble; New All-Time High at 6290.22 and All-Time Closing High at 6280.46

The top watch continues. The SPX is Jimmy Stewart in the famous swimming pool scene totally oblivious of what is occurring around him. Do not be a Woolly Bully as Sam the Sham & The Pharaohs said. Watch it now watch it now! Don't take no chance. Woolly Bully was a popular tune for the biker gangs in the 60's and 70's. 

Recapping the stock market madness over the last month, as a major top forms, Keystone talked about the low put/call ratios that have still not been resolved indicating euphoric bullishness that must be punished. As previously explained, the signal used to be more reliable with tops occurring in a few days hence but over the last couple decades, it takes longer sometimes 2 to 3 weeks, and that occurs, a month or so actually, and over 200 points up on the SPX (that was mentioned as a possibility and occurs due to the King Donnie tariff hype and Pope Powell flapping his dovish wings every ten minutes).

The maroon lines show that previous top with universal negative divergence. She started dropping but was stick-saved by the orange head and the Fed and the 20-day MA support. So up she goes but the red lines show neggie d has not gone away. The only uncooperative metric is the RSI that still has some gas in the tank making a new high (long and strong) as price printed the all-time record high at 6284.65 and all-time closing high at 6279.35 on Thursday, 7/3/25, just before Independence Day by Martina. Perfection.

Interestingly, Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and price sneaked above 6280 but no close above. If the SPX closes above 6280 for a couple days, it opens the door to the 6320-6330 target. The neggie d creates sogginess for a couple days but the RSI still has gas in the tank so another matching price high is expected. It would be good for bears to simply see the price print at 6279-6285 again, with the RSI turning neggie d, and that would be the top in the daily time frame, perhaps tomorrow.

The weekly chart remains neggie d but it is trying to use the gusto over the last couple weeks to extend itself for a week or few. As of now, however, it is a weak chart. The SPX monthly chart is toast. It remains in full negative divergence calling out a major multi-month and perhaps multi-year top for stocks. So it is down to the daily chart to likely time the top and it may occur tomorrow. Keep an eye on it.

The black circle shows the death cross and the gold circle shows the golden cross that just occurred and it is also occurring for Scamazon. Remember, when a death cross occurs, stocks usually rally (the opposite of what the dolts on television will tell you) since it took an extended time of weakness to create the death cross and at the least a dead-cat bounce is needed, as the chart above shows. The rally kept on going, however, and did not roll back over to the downside which typically happens (Donnie and Jerome saved the day). Conversely, it took over 3 months of upside to create the golden cross so a pullback should occur now to give price a break.

The ADX is telling a bearish story. The pink box shows the last strong trend in March into April that was the downside selling. This ended and the 3-month rally rules the roost but note that the ADX does not call it a strong trend. All-time highs are printing but the stock market is not considered to be in a strong trend higher. Something is seriously wrong with that picture. Sell Mortimer sell!.

The Aroon is hilarious and tells you the top is at hand. Nearly 100% of the bulls remain bullish for the last couple months and 100% of the bears remain bullish. That is funny stuff. There are zero bears in the stock market. It is bulls selling to other bulls that immediately regret they sold that then buy the shares back but the bull that sold regrets it and so on and so forth as the markets look for the biggest fool. Is it you?

The SPX violated the upper band so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 6097 is on the table and lower band at 5897. The red rising wedge pattern is bearish. The volume candlestick is pitiful for last Thursday when the stock market printed the new all-time record highs. It should have been a big volume day not tiny, even with the holiday. The light blue circles are distribution days, 7 of them over the last month. That is the smart money selling shares to the dumb money. Are you one of the sucka's that bot stock over the last month? You are going to get raped.

The Wall Street thieves are on television all day long pumping and dumping, telling the sucka's to buy, buy, buy, while they are sneaking out the back door. If you are long the market, look in the mirror. Smile, you are a bag-holding sucka. Goldman Sachs jacks up its SPX target by +11%. BAC hikes its SPX target. Blackrock proclaims that there is risk of being too defensive. Pause for laughter. Some idiots are calling for SPX 7K and probably already have an embroidered hat ready to display. A Manulife John Hancock chick says the rally will continue. The list goes on and on. Everybody and his bro are bullish the stock market expecting equities to go up forever as the chart verifies. Everyone is euphorically bullish and complacent so it is time to deliver heads on platters.

If you are a novice trader, get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. You are picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. Keybot the Quant remains bullish but as always, that can change at anytime. Watch the RSI on the daily chart. If price makes the matching or higher high, and the RSI slopes lower, neggie d, you can call the top in the daily time frame and this should also open the door for extended weakness on the weekly and monthly charts. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/10/25, at 7:27 PM EST: Ding, ding, ding. The bell rings at the top. Who said it didn't? Time to ring Anita's bell. Ring My Bell. Yesterday, stocks rallied and the SPX moved higher but did not match the previous high. Today was another story. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6290.22, but then falls backwards, but still prints an all-time closing high at 6280.46. Therefore, the chart metrics can be assessed for neggie d. The bulls are oiled-up participating in an orgy on the trading floor each day so obscene it would make Caligula blush. Every day is one big party day. The CPC put/call ratio collapses again verifying one month of pure euphoric bullishness, optimism and absolute complacency. If you followed your homework instructions, you see that the SPX prints the higher high, and now the RSI is sloping lower, negatively diverging, joining ALL the other chart indicators. You can call the top on the daily basis. In addition, if you bring up the SPX 2-hour, you can see that it is in universal neggie d as well so for the VST and ST, down is the path forward, and the neggie d spankdown would be expected to begin tomorrow. The only thing that can stop it is happy talk from King Donnie or Pope Powell overnight but that would then only delay the top by a few more days. The timing is interesting. Do you think a Black Friday may be on tap? How about a Black Sabbath and Paranoid.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/11/25, at 5:36 AM EST: JPM CEO Jamie Dimon proclaims that the stock market is complacent. He must be reading Keystone. King Donnie throws a hissy fit last evening and slams tariffs down on Canada and others. The orange head wants to divert attention away from the Epstein scandal where he is likely muzzling the information on the dead pedophile because he is using it to blackmail influential people. S&P futures slip -36 points so good news did not occur overnight. In fact, the news is negative so it acts as a catalyst and double-whammy to kick-in the negative divergence spankdown in the short-term that should begin now. Today will be interesting but next week is more important to see how the SPX weekly chart develops. Burn to Shine.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 7/13/25, at 8:01 PM EST: S&P futures are soggy as King Donnie spews more tariff rhetoric. The neggie d spankdown should continue this week unless there is happy news that creates a couple days of buoyancy. The 20-day MA support is at 6134 and rising so this would be the first stop and doable during the coming spankdown. The SPX weekly chart is key this week. The weekly chart remains negatively diverged over the last 6 months and over the last year, but there is thrust in the short-term due to the euphoric bullishness and bigtime top occurring. The MACD and money flow on the weekly chart should top out for the short-term which will help the bears. The SPX monthly chart is nasty with universal negative divergence. The stock market is a piece of sh*t folks. The SPX will drop from 200 to 800 points, or more, over the next month. Within days, there will likely be a big nasty down day say 100 to 150 negative SPX points. Are you planning for the trouble especially the long-term sickness with stocks or are you listening to everyone on television telling you to buy, buy, buy? Stocks are going to have a downward bias and leak lower for many months forward, through the end of the year, and likely first half of next year. Can't You See. Maybe some rock flute will help you think.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/15/25, at 5:33 AM EST: The big inflation data day is here. The case can be made that traders have been waiting for these numbers for the last month. Everyone expects an uptick in inflation it is only a matter of how much. If the numbers come in as expected or on the tame side, King Donnie will turn the Powell-badgering up to 11 demanding rate cuts. Spinal Tap. The impact of Trump's Trade and Tariff War should start appearing in the inflation data. Trumpski brags about the money coming in from tariffs but that is your money. Prices remain high especially food and one-third to one-half the cost of the tariffs will be paid by Americans. Services and goods inflation are the key components of the numbers. Services inflation has slumped in recent months, or call it steady, with a slight downward bias. Since services are not doing much, goods inflation, or deflation, will impact the overall inflation numbers going forward. Keystone discussed the Trumpflation a few posts back. After the orange head was elected in November, inflation and prices ran higher into this year as goods inflation ran higher. Then goods inflation dropped and Donnie has been claiming credit for bringing prices down. However, goods have been rising for the last month again so the expectation is for the inflation data to rise going forward and the big impacts with higher inflation occurring as the weeks and months play out ahead. For the gut reaction to the data, if it is at expectations or tame inflation, rate cuts are coming faster and stocks would rally. If the inflation is higher than expected, rate cuts remain on the back burner, and stocks would be soggy disappointed that the free money will not flow. However, technically, the stock market wants to pullback so it is a crap shoot as far as gauging a reaction. Julian Emanuel at Evercore is now using the "complacent" word. Keystone has started a new trend. Car Wheels On A Gravel Road.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 7/16/25, at 5:52 AM EST: The inflation data comes in a bit hotter than expected as most analysts expected. Buoyancy is in play for inflation going forward. King Donnie lies like Sleepy Joe saying inflation is falling and the orange head continues calling for rate cuts. Trump is doing a good job at screwing up the US and global economies. The initial reaction by stocks was up but as would be expected, stocks ended the day soggy since rate cuts will likely be delayed as inflation rises. The analysts remain super bullish with euphoric optimism. Chris Verrone at Strategas is not worried about any potential pullback since stocks will continue higher and higher. The buy the dip philosophy remains in full swing. These folks need punished for their misplaced optimism. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6302.04 yesterday but the all-time closing high remains at 6280.46 from 7/10/25. Where's the SPX 6.3K hats? Keybot the Quant remains long through the sleepy summer action and is tracking financials currently. Watch XLF 51.07, the bull/bear line in the sand identified by the quant. If that fails, the stock market trouble will materialize in a meaningful way. XLF is at 51.70 in the pre-market..