SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts

The stock market top occurs a couple weeks ago and the neggie d spankdown is in progress on the weekly basis that Keystone called as usual. What else is new? There remains a lot of chop suey in markets and the baby Trump theatrics are always front and center. It is a historic day in politics with US President Donnie Trump flipping his orange wig in public arguing with Ukraine President Zelenskyy.

King Donnie, King Crybaby, and Jester Vance, two chest-thumping loud-mouthed bullies, sucker-punched Zelenskyy in the Oval Office today causing turmoil in the markets. Zelenskyy was ambushed by the orange-head that turned into a red-faced dude that lost his temper bigtime. That is the true Trump on full display today, folks; an angry old orange-headed, er, red-faced, man. You can tell the loser by the one who is red-faced; it exposes the fact that he is not used to being in a face to face confrontation and instead a paper tiger.

Zelenskyy remained calm as a cucumber; of course he did. He has been at war for 3 years while Trump and Vance are choosing their cologne and cufflinks each morning. Trump holds a grudge against Zelenskyy for not wanting to get involved in digging-up dirt on Biden a few years ago. Trump expects you to lick his shoes and if you do not he will try to destroy you, your family, and career; retribution is his fave word. Donnie proclaimed that the hallowed, solemn, sacred Oval Office was disrespected by Zelenskyy. That makes you laugh out loud.

Slick Willie Clinton was having sex right there where Trump and Zelenskyy were sitting. Worse, Trump watched television in the Oval Office, cheering for Americans to hurt and maim one another during the Capitol Hill Riot on 1/6/21, and refusing to stop the violence when all he had to do was click his fingers. That is a sick head, and a tarnished disgraced room.

Rise Against the Violence (you know you have a hit song when you play it for the fans for the first time, and halfway through, the audience is screaming the chorus, you cannot buy that, it is magic).

That was sick behavior by Donnie on 1/6/21 but American voters did not care; in truth, they did not want to vote for a cackling communist and felt they had no choice but to hold their nose and vote for the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown.

This dude had the hutzpah to tell Zelenskyy he is the one disrespecting the Oval Office for calling Donnie out for his half-truths and misguided trust in dirtbag Dictator Putin. It is laughable. The Oval Office is just a room in a building, folks. 

Such is America in the final throes of its corrupt and failing crony capitalism system. It is fascinating to watch. Donnie runs home to Mommy at Mar-a-Lago just like Biden would run home to Delaware each weekend. The republicans and democrats are simply two sides of the same corrupt Washington, DC, coin. Get with the program.

Anyhoo, stocks recover into the closing bell but the week remains down. On the daily chart, the standard deviation lines got tight so a big move was on the come and it was down. The tight bands predict a big move but not direction. Price falls through the lower band so a rebound up to the middle band at 6039 is on the table. The SPX comes down to fill that huge gap from January.

Note that price makes the matching low on the daily chart and the indicators are positively diverged (green lines) calling for a bounce, sans the MACD line that remains weak and bleak and would like to see one more price low before there is a relief rally on the daily basis. It depends on Monday. If traders are bullish going into next week the daily chart may continue higher and not look back MACD be damned, or, Monday may be a soggy day for stocks, perhaps Tuesday, where price leaks back down for another look at the lows, and at that time, say mid-week, all indicators are possie d, so the rally on the daily basis will begin again and continue for a few days or week or so. The daily chart is set-up positive.

On the SPX weekly chart, the top call was easy like back in early December. Divergences are the most important metric in technical or fundamental trading; it is all you need to know to make a lot of money. The red lines show the top in the stock market with price making a matching or higher high, and all the chart indicators sloping down, negatively diverged, neggie d, so you knew a smack down was on the come, and voila, it begins and is now 2 weeks along.

Typically, an indicator or two on the weekly chart will chime with the daily chart to help create oomph in the relief rally but there is nothing to pin your hat on with that sick chart so the pending rally in the daily fame may not have much legs. The MACD line and money flow remain weak and bleak wanting to see more price lows occur on the weekly basis. Thus, the expected multi-week pullback remains in progress. Price has not even fallen to the prior low in January at that 5773-ish level.

The SPX violated the upper band so it came down to the middle band at 5966 but not to the lower band as yet at 5765 and rising. The LOD today is 5838 before the huge intraday relief rally.

As always, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess only time frames are the dimensions not space. The SPX should rally for the days ahead as described above; the bottom is either today or early next week. The rally will be short-lived, however, and shorting the rally is likely the prudent path forward. The SPX should roll back over to the downside to continue the multi-week slide.

The stock market will not bounce with a tradeable bottom until positive divergence forms on the weekly chart and that is likely another 2 to 4 weeks away, simply watch the chart, you do not have to guess. It can bounce before then with happy Donnie, Fed or AI talk, but Donnie is in a nasty mood tonight, the Fed is quiet, and people are tiring of the AI hype without any solid examples of efficiency ever discussed in measurable detail.

She will probably continue trailing lower with fits and starts on the weekly basis down to the 5600-5750 area. That 5700 is awesome price support. If 5773 fails, the 5700 support is next.

The 150-day MA continues sloping higher telling you that the stock market remains in a cyclical bull market pattern, based on this metric. Watch over the coming days and couple weeks to see if the 150-day MA flattens and rolls over to signal the start of a cyclical bear. By definition, this cannot occur until prices start printing sub 5817 so that would be when real market trouble begins.

The weekly chart is an interesting picture. Just think, a couple years from now, if you bring up that SPX weekly chart, it will not be applicable, since price will not be on that chart, it will be below it. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 7:40 AM EST: Stocks puke yesterday since the bulls continue to need taught a lesson for being too complacent. Don't panic! Don't panic! The SPX loses 105 points, -1.8%, to 5850. It's Beautiful! Even yesterday, as stocks collapse, face after face on business television said it is a buying opportunity. People are still not panicked or fearful at all. The big bull party continue without a care in the world despite the SPX teasing the 5700's yesterday. These are some of the same people calling for SPX 7K and higher this year. The CPC edges higher to 0.94 and CPCE is at 0.64. Burp. Belly scratch. Yawn. No one is worried at all, thus, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Teasing Critical 50-Wk MA Trap-Door at 980 that Would Bring on Serious Stock Market Pain

The stock market takes the pipe today continuing its streak of weakness for the last week. The new moon peaks today so it is not surprising to see the bearishness. Stocks are falling and some of that dough flows into notes and bonds seeking perceived safety so Treasury prices rise and yields fall. This is what you see in recessions.

The Fed was worried about inflation the last few months, as they should, but no one was looking at growth that looks like a 98-pound weakling. High inflation and a slow economy is stagflation like the 1970's. Humorously, King Trump is the new Jimmy Carter.

Anyhoo, utilities have not been able to regain the 1030+ level that continues signaling that utes are in a weekly downtrend which means the stock market should be or will be in a downtrend anytime, and it is. Check.

The second key metric for the utilities is the 50-wk MA now at 980.63. Keystone has talked about this key level many times; it is the trap-door. Since UTIL collapses down to 990.42, the bulls have a black hood on and a noose around their neck standing on the trap-door at the gallows. Time to sing, "O Death." The bulls wonder what happened to the days of wine and roses when it seemed like good times would never end?

Well, they did and a major test is about to occur for utes and the US stock market. If UTIL loses the 980 level and the trap-door opens, it is lights-out for the US stock market. The trap-door will tell you if the pull back in stocks is the run of the mill -3% to -5% drop or if it has potential to be a -10% correction, -20% bear market, or far worse. It will be the latter if the trap-door flies open.

If UTIL loses 980 and it remains below, the SPX will drop 20 to 40 points within an hour, and then everything will get far uglier going forward into the Ides of March. "Et tu, Brute?" They all stabbed Julius Caesar, even his friend, Brutus. With friends like that, who needs enemies? Far Behind.

Watch UTIL 980 like a hawk because the fate of the US stock market going forward depends on that number. If the pullback is run of the mill, stocks can recover and possibly still pull-out a half decent year. If UTIL 980 gives way, there is a high chance that the stock market will crash so it will be a lot of fun. If the -10%, -20% and worse drop occurs and we are going into summer, the stock market will probably be sick all year. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/28/25: UTIL ends the week at 1005 keeping the trap-door shut, for now. Keep watching it. The 50-wk MA is moving higher so the line of death is at the 980-985 area for next week.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES IS IN A HOUSING RECESSION FOR 26 MONTHS AND COUNTING

The US is in a housing recession for 26 months over 2 years along. The homebuilder stocks are in shambles. The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signaled the US housing recession starting 12/20/22 with no end in sight yet. Some homeowners turn into home moaners.

The housing recession does not end until the red line moves above the green line. Here is the previous housing recession chart that provides more color on the sordid path over the last few years. Here is a chart of the XHB ETF.

How could the United States not be in an overall recession when there is an ongoing housing recession, labor recession and manufacturing recession? In past decades, that trio of pain would guarantee an overall US economic recession and yet it remains missing and nowhere in sight.

The Godot Recession has not yet arrived despite the weakness in housing, manufacturing and labor. The Federal Reserve provided monetary stimulus and the Congress provided fiscal stimulus during the pandemic that created the 3-year housing recovery. The sales agreements were being signed faster than divorce papers. It was one big house party, a la Stevie Ray, come on in, no need to be knockin' when the house is rockin', there's some bad honky-tonker's really laying it down, come on baby, get out on that dance floor and shake something loose.  Wheee!  Whooopie!

The party ends on 12/20/22 as the housing recession begins. All that is left are used red Solo cups on the floor, a thick cloud of smoke that will not dissipate, a few roaches in the ashtray, empty beer cans in the kitchen sink, and two days of clean-up ahead. It was fun while it lasted but all that is left is a crumbling foundation.

Time will tell if an overall recession hits and if Godot finally arrives. King Donnie is doing his best to bring on that US recession. The destruction to jobs has a psychological impact for every worker and employee in America. None of your jobs are safe. You may be sh*t-canned tomorrow. Guess what? That causes people to not spend as much money anymore. If consumer spending continues slipping away, you will say hello to Godot that arrives with the overall recession and a couple years of pain. At that time you may as well put on some SRV. Pride and Joy.

AMZN Amazon Daily Chart; Scamazon in a Correction

Scamazon is taking the pipe as expected and explained by Keystone when he called the top for AMZN on the daily and weekly basis. Amazon receives the neggie d spankdown that is in progress.

The chart indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see more lows in price on the daily basis. The stochastics are oversold agreeable to a relief rally and the money flow is flat call it positively diverged. The bottom on the daily time frame is a few days away; the chart will tell you when all the indicators go possie d.

Price came down to fill that gap (orange circle) from early December and there are lots more gaps to fill down below. Remember, the weekly chart also topped-out with neggie d so a down move has started that will be multi-week. In charting, you are playing multi-dimensional chess with time the dimensions so marry the daily and weekly charts together and surmise that price should chop and remain sticky at the lows for a few days but then recover on the daily basis. After a few days or week or so, however, AMZN will roll over to the downside again to continue the negativity on the weekly basis.

A substantive bottom will not occur until the weekly chart goes possie d. Nothing to it. Simply watch the charts. Keystone is not in AMZN long or short currently.

Note that price is trying to find support at the 100-day MA at 212.83 so this is a logical place for a bounce, then slump over again, until all the indicators can go possie d (unless some happy talk from Donnie or the Fed or Emperor Jensen occurs).

The Amazon vans are all over the place these days when 5 years ago you were lucky to see one per month. Scamazon is eating UPS and FDX lunches. The UPS drivers have brown shorts because they are so worried about their future that they sh*t themselves. Both UPS and FDX have fallen into and are hanging around bear market territory down about -20% off the top.

For UPS, the -20% drop off the top from 141.23, on the infamous 11/25/24, is 112.98 and price is at 116. For FDX, the -20% drop off the top from 307.01 on the infamous 11/25/24, is 245.61 and price is at 253.54. FDX peaked on 7/15/24 at 310.77. Wowza, that was many moons ago.

How far down is Scamazon? Is it comparable to UPS and FDX to show that all three are in the same boat and people are simply not buying as much junk, or, is AMZN not down as much showing that they may be taking share, or, is Amazon down more showing a collapse in the consumer?

AMZN tops-out at 242.52 on 2/4/25. A -10% correction is 218.27 and a -20% bear market is 194.02. AMZN is in a correction now at 212.71 and not down as much as FDX and UPS so the consumer is hanging in there still trying to spend money on crap they do not need and Amazon continues taking share away from UPS and FDX.

Ask yourselves, folks, do you really need all that crap from Scamazon? The sweatshirts, leggings, travel mugs, shoes, whey protein powders, baby wipes, cat litter, wireless microphones, countertop ice machines, and surge protectors? When you are out of work in the weeks and months ahead, you will have time to drive down to local shops to purchase the things you need. The only thing that ever stops the great American consumer is a recession. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: AMZN 208.74. There was a LOD two days ago at 204.16 an important number.

Note Added 3/4/25: AMZN 197.

XHB Homebuilders ETF Daily Chart; Homebuilders Crumble into Bear Market

Homebuilders crumble into the dust, now in a bear market collapsing more than -20% off the top in late November.

Wall Street labels a -10% drop from record highs as a 'correction' and a -20% off the top is called a 'bear market'. These are bonehead metrics but everyone watches them so they are important. They are bonehead because an index or stock may quickly recover after falling below one of these metrics.

Nonetheless, the top in the XHB, the homebuilders ETF, was at 125.88 on 11/25/24, the same day as when the S&P 600 and Russell 2000 small cap indexes peaked. 11/25/24, around Thanksgiving, is a day of infamy.

XHB falls through correction territory and now dabs its big toe into the ice cold bear market waters. Will XHB completely collapse into those cold waters and drown? It is almost March so the spring home construction season will pick-up so perhaps stocks will stabilize. Keystone has been highlighting that the US has been in a housing recession for over 2 years.

The bell tolls for Toll Brothers with TOL taking the pipe. DHI, LEN, KBH, NVR and FERG are all sinking in the same house boat. If you want to look at horrible charts, take a look at that crap. We don't need no steenkin' McMansions. Keystone is not holding XHB or any of the homebuilder tickers long or short currently. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: XHB 100.72.

Russell 2000 and S&P 600 Small Cap Indexes Daily Charts in -10% Corrections

Small cap stocks bite the dust and are now in a correction. Wall Street labels a -10% drop from record highs as a 'correction' and a -20% off the top is called a 'bear market'. These are bonehead metrics but everyone watches them so they are important. They are bonehead because, as the chart above shows, an index or stock may fall into correction but if you blink it comes out quickly.

At the start of the year, the small caps gave up the ghost and fell into a correction. But by the time Keystone got up to get a cup of coffee, feed the animals, and return, the correction was over. So take the metrics with a grain of salt. There are other gauges that dictate bull and bear markets, in all time frames, far better.

The Russell 2000 tops out at Thanksgiving, 11/25/24, at 2466 so anything below 2219 is a -10% correction. The RUT gave it up to start the year but then gapped up on the happy Donnie talk, Fed escapades, and AI hype. Alas, the little ones could not bear the weight of the market, so their knees buckled and the Russell 2000 is now firmly in correction.

The S&P 600 Small Cap Index is the same dealio. SML topped-out on 11/25/24, the same day as the RUT, at 1560. A -10% correction is 1404 and below. The S&P small caps followed the same path as the Russell 2000 small caps.

What happened to all the jackasses on television that kept telling everyone to buy small caps with both fists? Well, they are laughing since they cashed-out, pumping and dumping their stock to Joe Sixpack, Carlos Bagholder and Melissa Sucka, that always show up to hold the bag. It's fun. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: SML falls to 1351 and RUT collapses to 2140.

XLP:XLY Consumer Staples/Consumer Discretionary Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Weekly Charts; XLP:XLY at Historic Lows

The XLP:XLY ratio is way down in the cellar so that represents a lot of consumer discretionary buying (denominator) and weak spending on consumer staples (numerator). Hey, nobody said this would involve fractions. Do not worry, the math is basic.

Consumer staples are the things you need in good times or bad and the things you hoard and make sure you have when the economy goes south and people start losing jobs left and right. A little bit like now. You buy toilet paper, and detergent, and hygiene products, and paper towels and stock all that stuff from floor to ceiling in the laundry room. Then you buy food rations and canned goods to stock the pantry to where cans fall when you open the door. In the evening, you open a can of baked beans that you heat over a Bunsen Burner and the family sits around candles talking about past recessions and depressions. You worry about getting ill because you must pay for healthcare in good times or bad. Staples are in demand.

Consumer discretionary is Party Town. Whoopie. Yee-haw! Time to buy motorcycles, Ski-Doo's, Rolex watches, snowboards, new cars, jewelry, fur coats, diamonds for honey and other adult middle-age-crisis toys. Do not worry about tomorrow, live for today! Expensive haircuts are new threads are required for the elaborate parties where money, and wine, flow like water. Real estate is bot at any price. Stocks go up forever. Life is one big party and it will never end. Spend that money on any piece of frivolous crap you see. It is the New Gilded Age. Discretionary items are in demand.

For ratios, or fractions, same-o thing, when the top number (numerator) moves higher, the ratio moves higher. When the top number moves lower, the ratio moves lower. For the bottom number (denominator), when it moves higher, the ratio moves lower. When the bottom number moves lower, the ratio moves higher. Is that clear as mud? That kid in the back looks like he is dizzy. This girl's eyes just glazed over.

The top number is XLP, staples, think PG for hygiene products and diapers (no, the diapers are not for Keystone), and CL, Colgate to scrub your rotted teeth, CLX, Clorox to clean your dirty clothes, etc..., things you need even if times are bad. When people chase these items, XLP prices rise, and the ratio chart will run higher. It means the stock market is in trouble because people are getting bigtime worried. It is time to sell stocks, like now.

When times are great, like when the year started, everyone drunk as skunks, and buying any stock with a heartbeat, no one was thinking about staples, they were thinking about fancy new clothes and shoes, and a new car, so XLP stocks drift lower and the ratio moves lower. Stocks are rallying.

The bottom number is XLY, discretionary, think auto stocks like the new Tesla piece of crap truck, or hotel stocks like MAR for travelers, maybe BBY for folks splurging on electronics since times are great and the good times will never end. When people chase items like motorcycles and other high-end items, XLY prices rise. XLY is in the denominator so when XLY moves higher, the ratio drops. These are good times with stocks rallying.

When XLY drops as all the fun items become less interesting and realization hits that the money should be spent on toilet paper, diapers and canned goods instead of adult toy crap, the ratio will move higher. This represents people becoming worried knowing that the splurging and decadence, in this New Gilded Age not golden age, has run its course and a recession is likely on the come, like now.

The purple line shows that stocks are still headed higher partying on but note that the ratio stopped going down and did not go down as far as three years ago. People know they have splurged too much and are starting to feel that something wicked this way comes and it would be prudent to begin preparing for Hard Times. The DOGE stuff by the Donnie and Elonnie Show drives fear into all workers across the United States that any job, no matter what you do, is expendable and may be gone tomorrow. Are you worried? Donnie and Elonnie were questioning an engineer today asking him what he does for the government.

The XLP:XLY ratio is at 0.38 heading higher. As it heads higher, it means selling is already underway in the stock market, like now. When price crosses above the 85-wk MA at 0.40 all hell should break loose with stocks falling like rocks. The bottom in stocks will occur after the ratio pops above the 85-wk MA and peaks, like the other fractals in the red circles display.

What are you doing? Are you buying something fancy, maybe an expensive kitchen gadget you do not need that will be out on the curb a year from now (XLY)? Or are you cleaning out your pantry shelves and closets to prepare for the stockpiling of paper towels, toilet paper, hygiene products, canned goods, water and other staples because you are getting concerned about the future (XLP)? There goes neighbor Harriet. She just sold all her stocks and now she is driving to Costco yelling out the window that she needs to stock-up on stuff. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: XLP:XLY is up to 0.39. The plot thickens. Are you still out there buying a bunch of worthless crap you do not need? Buy canned goods instead. XLP is up +5% this year while XLY is down -5% in 2025. People are buying toilet paper, detergent, and diapers and putting the new boat and diamond bracelet on hold. The New Gilded Age from 2003 to present, courtesy of the Fed's easy money making the wealthy class filthy rich beyond their wildest dreams, is starting to wilt.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Short-Term Bear Market for Stocks if SPX is Below 6047

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart, now at 6047, is one of Keystone's fave ST and VST indicators. You can see the bulls have controlled the game a long time. Bears threatened to take the ball away as February started, that was after the FOMC meeting, and stocks took off higher. There is a bunch of Donnie Trump hype upside action in that chart as well.

Price also came down mid-month to test the critical 200 EMA only to bounce again. Last Friday she came down, and the support ruptured, and it is a bigtime negative for the stock market. The bears control the direction of stocks ahead, which is down, as long as the SPX remains below the 200 EMA at 6047.

The bulls will be back in business if the S&P 500 moves back above 6047. If stocks rally, and S&P futures are up +23 Sunday evening on the East Coast, but the SPX is unable to move above the 6047, the rally is meaningless, and will reverse and fall apart.

All that said, and knowing that the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 6047 is a critical market metric, means price will want to come up for the back kiss at the 200 EMA at 6047. If price begins Monday at 6013, that is +34 points of upside the bulls need to back test the 6047. The bulls are pumping futures tonight so they are going to come ready to play tomorrow.

The SPX will likely come up to 6047 for the bounce or die decision. If price bounces above 6047, it is rainbows, blue skies, flowers, delicious meals, and stocks rallying higher. If the back test of 6047 takes place, and price dies, she will likely start going down extremely hard and fast and there will be carnage on Wall Street.

The Keybot the Quant robot is short and says bears win big if SOX drops below 5119 but bulls win big if VIX drops below the 16.61 palindrome. Dylan and Donovan sitting around playing guitar. It's all over now, baby blue? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: SPX pukes its guts out down to 5861.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 7:41 AM EST: Stocks puke yesterday since the bulls continue to need taught a lesson for being too complacent. Don't panic! Don't panic! The SPX loses 105 points, -1.8%, to 5850. It's Beautiful! Even yesterday, as stocks collapse, face after face on business television said it is a buying opportunity. People are still not panicked or fearful at all. The big bull party continue without a care in the world despite the SPX teasing the 5700's yesterday. These are some of the same people calling for SPX 7K and higher this year. The CPC edges higher to 0.94 and CPCE is at 0.64. Burp. Belly scratch. Yawn. No one is worried at all, thus, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side this afternoon at SPX 6050. Watch SOX 5119 to see if the stock market collapses into the closing bell, or not.

Keybot the Quant

JNK:LQD Bond Ratio Weekly Chart; Traders Willing to Take-On Maximum Risk

Use the JNK:LQD ratio as a gauge of risk. As the ratio moves higher, it shows a greater taste for risk. It is way up in the right top corner. Dancing girls are displaying their wares as they prancy on top of conference room tables. Drunk CEO's applaud the risky behavior and celebrate the New Gilded Age. La-la-la-la. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 and CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand

The stock market topping drama continues. It was mid-January, 3 weeks or so ago, when Keystone first pointed out the low put/call ratios signaling rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market signaling a substantial top. The SPX tops out on 1/28/25 at 6128.18 the all-time record high.

Price is spanked lower due to the rampant market euphoria but the dip-buyers waste no time to jump back into the stock market. The Donnie Trump tariff bluster without bite, AI happy talk, and Fed maintain buoyant stocks.

The CPC comes down again late January to highlight the lower top in the SPX and stocks go down again but the whole move off the record high is only about 130 points. That is nothing compared to what you expect for such rampant complacency. It is a mere pittance as the waiter says when Keystone leaves a tip.

The rampant complacency and excessive euphoric bullishness is comical. One trader is throwing darts at the stock pages and buying whatever tickers are hit. Another investor hired a monkey to point at the stock pages to pick stocks. The Uber driver, doorman, shoeshine boy, Joe Sixpack, Carmelita Sucka and Antoine Bagholder decided to form an investment group and their brain trust just went triple-leveraged long the stock market. Young folks that own homes are grabbing-up home equity lines and then buying leveraged ETF's with the money to take advantage of easy stock market gains that will go up forever. That never ends well.

As an aside, the ETF house of cards is about to come into play. Keystone has been warning about it the last few years. Everybody and his bro, even Uncle Schmo, and drunkard Joey, are long the market using ETF's. Mutual funds and all that jive is so passe, like heroin, so ETF's are the favorite flavor nowadays. The massive amount of money in the ETF's is mind-boggling and guess what? It can all disappear with a key stroke. In the old days, you would call the broker and wait a day or more before positions were sold but now it is done in a millisecond--by everyone!! When this baby starts flushing, it is going to be a sight if the ETF holders all panic. It will be a blast and fun to watch; the fear and panic in people's eyes as they lose their shirts; it is priceless.

Stocks recover again over the last couple weeks only due to the hype talk since technically the charts are spent. The SPX prints a high on Friday at 6127.47 only 71 pennies from a new record high. That was so close why didn't it just print?

This is a very atypical topping pattern. The SPX is expected to lose from 200 to 800 points going forward, maybe more. This should be in the process of playing out now but Pope Powell, King Donnie, and Emperor Jensen are conspiring to pump stock prices to the sky to help themselves and their greedy friends to as much money as possible.

She is going to fall big starting anytime. The last 3 weeks of baby games are pretty much played out. Save yourself. If you are long, you are going to get your face ripped off. US markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day. Maybe a Black Tuesday? On Tuesday Afternoon we will see what futures are past. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 2/19/25, at 4:39 AM EST: Black Tuesday was too shy to come out of the bushes. Chips were in a good mood to begin the holiday-shortened week driving the SPX to a new all-time record high at 6129.63 and new all-time closing high at 6129.58. The SPX daily chart prints a hanging man candlestick hinting that a trend change cometh. Almost....... Now! ... Sell!  It is fun to watch; lambs joyfully walking to slaughter.

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: The week ends with a mini-Black Friday. Where's Freddy Chopin. Hey Chopin! There he is. Get over there to the piano and play your tune Freddy. The SPX tops-out at the all-time record high at 6147 on 2/19/25, hump day, and then falls on its sword yesterday and today, collapsing to 6013, sitting on the 50-day MA at 6010 for the weekend to think things over. Price must bounce or die from 6010-6013 come Monday morning. The 200 MA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 6047, an excellent ST and VST direction indicator, ruptures today turning the stock market into a short-term and very short-term bear market (days or weeks). The S&P 500 has fallen -2.2% off the all-time record top so far; that isn't anything. Bears need chips to fail next to get the ball rolling to the downside. If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, you see universal neggie d across all indicators as the all-time high printed so a neggie d spankdown was on tap. Ditto the daily chart. Ditto the weekly chart that Keystone had posted. The weekly chart has turned down from the top and is starting to receive the negative divergence smack down on the weekly basis that means the selling will go on for a while Into March. Look for a back kiss of the 6047 since it is key resistance, and price should show it respect, and the SPX will make a bounce or die decision from here. If the SPX comes up and back kisses the 6047 and begins falling again (successful back test), she is going to start falling like a rock. Watch utilities since weakness in utes forecasts stocks to drop a long ways but if UTIL moves above 1031, bulls will still have game.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: The SPX and US stock market explodes as described above. Stocks sell off with traders running for their lives. Equities remain weak. SPX collapses to 5861. The neggie d spankdown on the SPX weekly basis in progress with the S&P 500 down about 3 hundo points off the top so far.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 7:42 AM EST: Stocks puke yesterday since the bulls continue to need taught a lesson for being too complacent. Don't panic! Don't panic! The SPX loses 105 points, -1.8%, to 5850. It's Beautiful! Even yesterday, as stocks collapse, face after face on business television said it is a buying opportunity. People are still not panicked or fearful at all. The big bull party continue without a care in the world despite the SPX teasing the 5700's yesterday. These are some of the same people calling for SPX 7K and higher this year. The CPC edges higher to 0.94 and CPCE is at 0.64. Burp. Belly scratch. Yawn. No one is worried at all, thus, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

XLF Financials ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Price Extended

The banks, insurers and financial companies had a good 1-1/2 year with XLF catapulting higher from 30 to 52, a humungous +73% gain. The Wall Street fat cats are smoking fine cigars dabbing the ashes on the faces of the huddled masses. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red rising wedge is bearish with price teasing a breakdown from the lower trend line.

The red lines show that has price makes matching and higher highs for 3 weeks running, all the chart indicators are out of gas. There is no more fuel to take banks higher on the weekly basis. This is when you are flying down the highway and all of a sudden the vehicle jerks a little bit, then sputter, sputter, choke, jerk, darn, its running out of gas, pull over quick, but not there, it is a cliff.

Price is teasing that upper band so the 53 may be tagged before she reverses hard on the weekly basis. The middle band at 49, and rising, and lower band at 45.23, and rising, are on the table going forward on the weekly basis. That 47-ish level may be solid support is she starts collapsing to the downside.

Price is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. The ADX pink box shows that price is still in a strong uptrend. But note that as price makes its highs over the last year, the ADX is dropping; neggie d. If the ADX falls below 28-ish, now at 34, the strong uptrend would be officially over. The ADX is a lagging and confirmation indicator.

The Aroon displays the same comical behavior as many other charts. The green line shows that all the bank bulls remains bullish believing that banks will go up forever. Humorously, the red line shows that all the bank bears believe that that the banks will go up forever. This uber bullishness on banks has been ongoing for the almost one year. The bulls and bears are partying on one side of the boat, with Keystone the only one on the other side and he is stepping into a life raft and when he does the USS-XLF will probably capsize. You will get taught a lesson if you hang out with those banksters.

Price should receive a spankdown going forward starting now. XLF may want to squeeze-out 53, if she does it will probably be over the next few days, then a multi-week move lower the rest of this month and much of March. A month from now, it would not be surprising to see XLF down at 47-ish. Keystone does not have any position in XLF long or short currently but obviously short is the path forward for the next few weeks.

Friday is Valentines Day. On their way to a date, men will stop at the local drug or convenience store, to see what they can buy real quick to make their honey happy, that they hope honey will think a lot of thought went into it. The wine and roses keep the love boat afloat, that may be adrift, and needing a rope. Oh my. Jenny is about to get wicked. Have mercy. Where are the heart pills. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/14/25, Valentine's Day, at 6:06 AM EST: XLF is at 51.70. Get yourself out before the multi-week downslide begins. It is a double-top, or M-top.

Note Added Sunday, 2/16/25: Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett continues throwing BAC shares overboard also C. He cannot get rid of the bank shares fast enough. Isn't he touted as the bigtime smart investor? Buffett is ditching banks so why would you be buying them? Maybe it is best to take advice from Jimmy Buffett and spend a day in Margaritaville. 

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: XLF 50.75.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: XLF 51.13.

Note Added 3/6/25: XLF drops to 49.56.

CRB Commodity Index Weekly Chart; Goods Inflation; Donnie Trump Tariff War Creates Inflation

The CRB clearly shows the goods inflation taking place and verified in this mornings data. The catapult higher in the CRB occurs exactly when Donnie Trump is reelected to office. He brags that he is Tariff Man wearing orange tights with a tacky gold T on his chest. The blue line on the chart clearly shows what is expected to happen to the price of goods since Donnie won. Up, up, and Away. Would you like to fly in Donnie's big beautiful tariff balloon?

The CRB is made up of aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, lean hogs, live cattle, natty gas, nickel, orange juice, RBOB gasoline, silver soybeans, sugar and wheat. About 40% of the CRB is agriculture, 40% energy, 13% base metals and 7% precious metals (PM). 

Keystone posted the CRB chart a month ago telling you it is leading the inflation parade. Everyone is coming up to speed. Inflation is made up of goods inflation and services inflation. After the pandemic, due to the outrageous monetary (Fed) stimulus and fiscal (Congress) stimulus pumped into the economy, inflation goes to the moon. Prices sky rocket. People start going on vacation after the pandemic and they want their toilets cleaned, stained bed sheets turned, new towels, their bags carried, their meals cooked, and their arses patted. Airline activity flies high. Hotels are busy. Events, concerts, resort destinations, etc..., are going like gangbusters.

This activity sends services inflation to the clouds, however, what goes up must come down. Even the wealthy run out of money to spend on discretionary fun. Over the last few months, the services inflation activity has flattened and started to roll over lower. This encourages the Fed that they are on the right path since it will help pull overall inflation down towards the 2% goal but while everyone was fixated on services inflation, no one was watching goods inflation that spent the last couple years choppy sideways.

King Donnie is handing out tariffs like Oprah hands out cars. You get a tariff! And you get a tariff! Look inside the envelope taped under your seat and that is the percentage of your tariff! You get 60%! You get 25%! You get an exemption because I will build a hotel in your country after I leave office! You get the idea. Another day in corrupt, crony America.

Traders have decided that Donnie Trump, the orange-headed Tariff Man, is creating inflation sending goods inflation, as measured by the CRB, from 277 to 313, a big +13% pop, in only 3 months. The CRB is going up almost +5% per month due to the Donnie tariffs and tariff threat chaos.

As price makes the higher high, you can see that all the indicators are in negative divergence except for the MACD line that remains long and strong. A spankdown is on tap, probably for only a week or two, then back up again to satisfy the MACD that still has gas in the tank to take price higher, that will then join the other indicators with neggie d probably in a couple weeks or so to place the top and then begin a multi-week slide lower. The goods inflation should hover for a while (1 to 3 weeks, maybe more).

Thus, if goods are flat for a few weeks, at these higher levels, and if services bumps along flat, even with the small downward bias, inflation is going to remain buoyant perhaps into the St Patty's Day, Easter, and Memorial Day holidays when the last hurrah occurs. Simply watch the chart above to see where the top comes in at on the weekly basis (between now, and, say, the end of the month or early March, then a multi-week slide lower say through back half of March and all of April when the inflation data should subside, but may not show up in the numbers until the May data.

It is plain to see what Donnie is doing with his self-proclaimed tariff war; he is pumping inflation higher when he said he would bring it down. The Biden family grifters leave town and the Trump and Musk family grifters arrive. Carole King turns 83. God Bless Her. She is one of the very few performers that could completely electrify an audience. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, Valentine's Day, at 5:50 AM EST: King Donnie is exposed as a paper tiger with tariffs. The orange head used all capital letters in social media yesterday screaming that it was the big day of reciprocal tariffs and no one would be spared. Surprise, surprise, NOT. It is another day in the Donnie presidential reality television show season two. King Donnie talks a big game but it is all bluster and his big announcement is to perform a study into tariffs with no details. But of course he says stay tuned for the next episode. Donnie wants the television cameras focused on his orange head 24/7. Stocks catapult higher because traders realize Trump's tariff talk is braggadocio with no follow-through. No one should be surprised that lame duck Donnie is an orange-headed bloviating carnival clown. CRB remains steady at the 313 palindrome and the big jump in goods inflation because of Donnie's election should level-off as the tariff lion is more like a tiny little tariff mouse. Oh my. America has to put up with 3 years and 11 months more of this garbage. Give people what they want. Shove it down their throats until they gag on it. Happy Valentine's Day. Rose Garden.

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: CRB 316.58 highest since June 2022. King Donnie inflation.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: CRB pops to 316.63 yesterday and collapses to 305.18.

AMZN Amazon Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Poor Amazon. We hardly knew ye. "Taps" is the only appropriate song for AMZN now. The melody fits perfect with repeating the words, "neggie-d" over and over. Keystone has been watching AMZN the last few weeks waiting for the negative divergence to form to call the top. The end is nigh.

With the matching price high last week, a mini-Tweezer Top, the chart indicators can be assessed for neggie d. As usual, the MACD line was the last kitten to herd and as seen above, it is finally out of gas like the other indicators (sloping down while price moves higher; negative divergence; the indicators are negatively diverging away from the rising price). You have to wait until all the indicators go neggie d to call the top and now you can call the top in Scamazon on the weekly basis.

You can see that the MACD was long and strong up through the prior week so it was wine and roses through the end of January. Traders and investors remain bulled-up this past week but the chart clearly shows that the joy in price required all the remaining juice out of the MACD so it is time for the neggie d spankdown. The indicators do not have anymore strength to take price higher.

A multi-week down move is expected going forward for AMZN. If you bot AMZN stock last week, caught up in the current hype and bullish euphoria, you will get your face ripped off over the next couple-three weeks. Every top needs a bag-holdin' sucka. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback.

The blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money sloughing off shares to the dumb money even during the low volume weeks as the new year started. Bezos is standing on the street corner selling his Scamazon shares to anyone willing to buy; he is hoping to get out before the bottom falls out.

The red rising wedge pattern is bearish and price is about to fall through the lower rail. The upper band was violated so a move back to the middle band at 211 and lower band at 177 are on the table. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon, with AMZN price above the 20 above the 50 above the 200, requiring a mean reversion lower.

The Aroon is showing the comical behavior that is appearing in other high-flying out-of-control stocks. The green line shows that 100% of the Amazon bulls believe price will go up forever. No surprise, right. They be talkin' their book. The Aroon red line shows that 100% of the Amazon bears also believe that the stock price will go up forever. That is funny. Every single person on the SS Amazon-Titanic is on one side of the ship; the side that does not have life boats. All you can do is sing "Shenandoah" and wish good luck to all those poor dumb b*stards partying on one side (long) of the Scamazon boat.

Keystone is not holding AMZN now long or short but obviously the play forward is short. A multi-week spankdown is on tap for AMZN. As Lawrence said, it is time to say good-bye to sweet Amazon, adios, au revoir, auf wiedersehen. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday, 2/12/25, at 6:55 AM EST: AMZN is 232.12 in the pre-market. Yesterday's close is 232.76. The 20-dy MA S/R is 232.81. It is time for AMZN to bounce, or die. The 50-day MA support is 226.59 and rising. Appaloosa's David Tepper, that a lot of people follow on Wall Street, like the old E F Hutton commercial, cut his exposure to META and AMZN in favor of Chinese tech stocks. Hightower's Stephanie Link, a CNBC commentator, remains bullish on Scamazon. She is putting more money into AMZN. King Bezos is tip-toeing out the back door after ditching billions in AMZN stock to end last year.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/14/25, Valentine's Day, at 6:11 AM EST: AMZN is at 230.37. The 20-day MA fails and price slips lower to test the 50-day MA at 227.51 support, and bounces back to 230-ish. The 50 is Scamazon pausing at the top of the high-dive, if it fails (227), it is the diver lunging off the platform and falling like a rock to depths unknown.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 2/18/25: AMZN 226.65. Price drops to 223.72 today but recovers. The 50-day is 228.13. Price has failed and expected to drop. The 100-day is at 211.70. The 20-wk MA is 215.43. With the gap fills, price support and moving average support levels, a drop to the 207-217 should be on the table. Weekly chart has started its descent so that will go on for a few weeks. Daily chart still weak and bleak but starting to bottom so probably will bounce this week, then after a few days (a week or so), price will roll back over to the downside to continue the weekly downtrend that is underway.

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: AMZN 216.58.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: AMZN 208.74. There was a LOD two days ago at 204.16 an important number.

XLC Communications Services ETF Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; AI Orgy Petering Out

Most sectors have already come off their tops but not XLC. Communication Services are off to the races for the last couple years riding the AI orgy to glory. Well, all good things come to an end. The neggie d (red lines) says XLC is about to have a Led Zeppelin Communication Breakdown.

XLC holds META, GOOGL, GOOG, NFLX, T, TMUS, TTWO, DIS, VZ, CHTR, etc...., it is an artificial intelligence parade. The happy AI group march forward for 2 years with people clapping and applauding, throwing money at them, but now the parade route is about to change. XLC and its merry holdings will now march through the seedy part of town, past the drug addicts, and behind the horses and elephants that are making brown deposits on the asphalt every few feet.

There are nothing but negatives on that chart. Price makes the higher high but the red lines highlight the negative divergence across all indicators; she should stall, run out of gas, and begin collapsing at any time on the weekly basis. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Let us be generous and call it a rising wedge pattern, that is bearish, although there should be more price touches to the trend lines to make the wedge more legit.

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so a trip to the middle band at 96 and rising, and the lower band at 88 and rising, are on the table. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (price above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 200) so a mean reversion lower is needed.

The Aroon green and red lines show that both XLC bulls and bears believe that price will go up forever. Of course, it will not. The Aroon signals the uber bullishness and rampant complacency. Joe Sixpack is taking an entire paycheck and buying NVDA because the guy on television said to buy it and forget about it. Comically, his buddy, Timmy Trader, told him to be diversified and invest one-half in NVDA and the other half in PLTR.

The blue circle shows a big buying volume week 2 weeks ago but it ws not as robust as the buying volumes last year. If XLC wanted to rock 'n roll higher all night long, the volume should be higher. As the analysts pimp the AI story on television and the internet, they are selling their shares to Edna Bagholder and Carmelita Sucka. The chart forecasts bad things ahead on the weekly basis; a multi-week pullback is set to begin. Do not rule out a move to 104-105 to satisfy the top band but she should peak-out in the days ahead and begin a selloff.

Let us see, taking a look at the daily chart to see where the top may be at, wow, that is in neggie d as well. The Thursday trading session is underway and XLC is at 102.36 perhaps already receiving the neggie d spankdown on the daily and weekly bases. She should be cooked here and interestingly, the upper shadows for the last two price candlesticks are a Tweezer Top, if they hold. They should have longer shadows but that is close enough for government work.

Keystone is not holding XLC long or short right now but obviously short is the play going forward. That means many, or most, maybe all, of the tickers that XLC holds, will head south as well. A crowd favorite. Headin' down south, to the land of the pine,....  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/7/25, at 6:12 PM EST: XLC finishes the week at 102.74 with universal neggie d on daily and weekly charts. Obviously, XLC is a ticker you do not want to be long. Next week will likely be the start of the multi-week communication Breakdown.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/14/25, Valentine's Day, at 6:18 AM EST: XLC receives a pop higher to 104.67 after King Donnie does not deliver the tariff punch he promised. The weekly chart will likely take a couple extra weeks to top out due to the extra hype. Simply make sure the neggie d remains in place and you will know the top is in.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 2/18/25: XLC is at 104.82 to begin the holiday-shortened week a matching high and the weekly chart shows neggie d across all all indicators. She's cooked on the weekly basis. XLC should drop for a few weeks from here. Commentator Josh Brown on CNBC is bullish on XLC but he must be looking at the wrong charts.

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: XLC 103.02.

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: XLC 100.53. A communication breakdown.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross is a very useful VST (very short-term) stock market signal. The year thus far is a bunch of choppy whipsaw slop but the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 6000 is the bull/bear line in the sand.

Bulls win big if the SPX remains above 6K; stocks will rally higher. Bears win big if the SPX slips below 6K; stocks will collapse. The SPX begins at 6038 and look at that, S&P futures are down -38. It appears the bulls and bears both know what the game is today. Two enter the cage match today but only one will exit. SPX 6000 is the judge and jury. Reba steams-up the courtroom. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 2/6/25, at 2:57 AM EST: The SPX rallies to 6061 yesterday as the VIX drops to 15.77. The dance continues.

Note Added Friday Evening, 2/7/25, at 6:17 PM EST: The SPX finishes the week at 6026 down on the week. The neggie d on the weekly chart identified the top 3 weeks ago, on the weekly basis, and price drifts lower to 5924 testing the 20-wk MA support at 5928. Price then recovered one hundo points off the bottom so the support held. Write 5924-5928 on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. It will likely be important next week. Markets are closed for President's Day on Monday, 2/17/25, and stocks are usually happy the 2 days before a 3-day weekend (Thursday and Friday) so if the bears want to raise a little Hell, like the Ozark boys, they need to be ready to play Monday through hump day. Valentine's Day is Friday so thoughts will turn to love, and the reason for living, on Friday. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is 6010 only 16 points below the closing price. The 20-day MA is 6009 and the 50-day MA is 6001. The 6009-6010 is where the wheels begin falling off the stock market, then 6000-6001 will be lost, then 5924-5928 is where blood and carnage begins. The 100-day MA at 5906 and rising would be the last hope for the bulls before they fall into the bottomless pit. VIX is at 16.54 in the bull camp with the line in the sand at 16.87 only 33 cents away. This is fun to watch. Greed always takes its pound of flesh. Plan accordingly so you can take care of your Country Girl. Black Monday?

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: SPX 6013. 

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: The SPX and US stock market explodes as described above. Stocks sell off with traders running for their lives. Equities remain weak. SPX collapses to 5861. The neggie d spankdown on the SPX weekly basis in progress.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/4/25, at 7:43 AM EST: Stocks puke yesterday since the bulls continue to need taught a lesson for being too complacent. Don't panic! Don't panic! The SPX loses 105 points, -1.8%, to 5850. It's Beautiful! Even yesterday, as stocks collapse, face after face on business television said it is a buying opportunity. People are still not panicked or fearful at all. The big bull party continue without a care in the world despite the SPX teasing the 5700's yesterday. These are some of the same people calling for SPX 7K and higher this year. The CPC edges higher to 0.94 and CPCE is at 0.64. Burp. Belly scratch. Yawn. No one is worried at all, thus, the beatings will continue until moral improves.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Long-Term Multi-Month and Multi-Year Stock Market Top At Hand

It is time for some homework. You are assigned to watch that purple circle on the chart to see if the long-term top for the US stock market is occurring now, in real-time, or, will occur a month or so from now (March). Say what? Down? Everybody, and his brother, on Wall Street says stocks are bang, going to the moon, Alice, this year with 7K and higher popular targets for the SPX. You will have to decide who is Smokin' something.

This is bigtime stuff. If you are under 40 years old and a novice trader, you should get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. Keystone called the top to begin 2022; you can scroll back to study those charts. The red lines show the negative divergence in play across all indicators so calling the top on the monthly basis was easy. At the time, the MACD line was playing games, as it typically does since it is usually the last indicator to go neggie d, and only committed to the downside by a hair. Ditto the money flow.

The expectation would be that price has no reason to come back up again on the monthly basis and the S&P 500 was a sick pup for all of 2022. However, the money was flowing like water on Wall Street and Main Street. The Federal Reserve prints money like madmen to protect America's wealthy class and lowers rates, Congress is throwing money to Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic, then the arrogant ignorance, er, artificial intelligence (AI) orgy kicks into gear, and do not forget the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election with King Donnie promising a chicken in every pot. Add it all together and you have an out of control upside stock market so obscene it would make Caligula blush.

You are witnessing the piggish end to the crony capitalism system that is now spitting-up blood. It is a shame that capitalism does not exist but the power of human greed knows no bounds.

Anyhoo, the SPX in 2025 prints a matching price high for four consecutive months. Since price is at a matching or higher high, the chart indicators can be reviewed for neggie d.

All the indicators are in negative divergence calling for a top in the stock market on a monthly basis, except for the stubborn MACD line that remains long and strong, by a hair. It takes a magnifying glass but the MACD, already in nosebleed territory, sneaks up a tiny nano-length. That is your homework; the purple circle. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste like grapes.

The entire balance of the US stock market depends on that purple circle. Even if the MACD remains long and strong, it only delays the top by a month or two for a jog move to occur (down-up) to then position the MACD with neggie d (downward-sloping). So the end is nigh. The MACD is also outrageously high and the only direction to go is down going forward.

The current task is figuring out where the exact top is at. Scroll back to the SPX weekly chart where Keystone explained that top and it is rolling over in the weekly time frame currently. Thus, she either falls down the rabbit hole now and heads lower for many months even a couple years or more, or, she wants to hang-on for a few more weeks before topping-out and then falling down the rabbit hole for many months even a couple years or more.

The purple circle tells you which one will occur. It is February, don't forget to pronounce the r when you say it, so the new monthly candlestick is only 2 days old. There is lots of trading remaining this month. If the SPX collapses from here, as the uber bullish sentiment and rampant complacency suggest, watch the MACD line because it is evolving with price. If the SPX sells off, the MACD line is going to drop on the end and it will be neggie d this month. Hence, the top is now and a multi-month and multi-year downturn is starting in real-time.

If at the end of this month, 2/28/25 is a Friday, the MACD line is still sloping a hair higher like now, stocks will drop for a month, but then regain their footing and come up for another higher high in price in March. At that price high, the MACD will likely be neggie d, joining all the other indicators, so March would be the multi-month and multi-year top instead of right now in real-time.

So now you know what to watch to call the long-term top after you pick yourself up from the carpet trying to grasp the thought that the money you see in your brokerage account today, will only be half that amount in a year or two. Plan accordingly.

Keystone calls May 2015 the last legitimate top in the US stock market. Everything above 2015 is fluff and phony-baloney garbage and trash. It is a representation of the crony capitalism bloat that is unmanageable and unfixable. We all are simply going to watch it implode going forward.

The RSI, stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Price will correct to the 200-month MA at some point forward so do not be surprised in a year or two to see the SPX down in the 2,000-3,500 range. That will get everyone's attention. That is where the SPX should have stayed for the last few years if the country was not hopelessly corrupt, addicted to easy money, and drowning in the unforgiving waters of rigged crony capitalism.

The Aroon green line shows that nearly every stock market bull believes that the stock market will go up forever. Comically, the Aroon red line indicates that every single stock market bear also thinks that the stock market will go up forever. Pause for laughter. This uber bullish behavior is occurring with bitcoin, also. Even funnier, every single bear believes stocks will go up forever but only 96% of the bulls think stocks will go up forever. That is priceless and proves how every single trader is on the bull side of the boat believing that stocks will go up forever so it is time to party like its 1999.

Price violated the upper band so a trip back to the middle band at 5226 and rising sharply, and the lower band at 4047 and rising sharply, are on the table going forward. All of you folks long the market have to make big decisions now and do it while you can. Daylight's Fading. It will be fun watching raw human emotion play out over the coming months. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Not Added Friday Evening, 2/21/25: SPX 6013. 

Note Added Thursday, 2/27/25: The SPX and US stock market explodes as described above. Stocks sell off with traders running for their lives. Equities remain weak. SPX collapses to 5861. The neggie d spankdown on the SPX weekly basis in progress.