SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; 1-Year Cyclical Bear Market Is Tested at 12-Month MA at 3960

Happy St Patrick's Day a day when everyone is Irish. It is time to let that famous Irishman out of the backyard shed; Patt-i-o Furniture. Rim shot. Young folks will gulp down green beer to celebrate the day and vomit this evening. Tomorrow, a child will ask Mommy why the sidewalk is green.

Keystone's top stock market metric is the SPX 12-mth MA cross. If you had to go to a deserted island and could only take one indicator along to know what was going on, it would be the SPX 12-mth MA cross. The 1-year cyclical bear market is being tested.

As the previous SPX monthly chart explained, price attacked the key 10-mth MA in November. The cyclical bear continued growling in December but the bulls try another run at greatness in January. In February, the bulls are rejected and spanked down from the 12-month MA again.

In March, the SPX moves above the key 12-mth MA at 3959.92, call it 3960. Price is at 3960. This action may be telling you what the stock market will do for the rest of the year. Bulls win big above 3960 and a new cyclical bull market will begin.

Bears win big below 3960 and if the 10-mth MA at 3925 fails, it is all over but the crying since blood will once again flow on Wall Street. SPX 3960 tells you stock market direction going forward.

A back kiss of the 10-mth MA at 3925 is expected since it is such a critical number (many algorithms use these metrics) and that is when the important bounce or die decision will be made. SPX 3925 is where price is staring into the great abyss. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:01 AM EST: Banks remain weak and the SPX falls from 3960 and then tests the 3925, and fails. Price is at 3913 and should back kiss the 3925 from the underside to decide if it truly wants to fail.

Note Added 12:22 PM EST: It is munch time on the East Coast. The SPX comes up to back test 3925 at 11:16 AM and fails (a successful back test of resistance for the bears). A few minutes ago, price comes up again but stalls at 3922. The drama will probably continue into the weekend. The bears are flexing their muscles walking around with chins held high and chests puffed-out.

Note Added 12:28 PM EST: Whoa. The SPX pops to 3921. Now 3922. This may be the grand daddy test of 3925 for today; bounce or die.

Note Added 12:30 PM EST: The SPX is at 3923. The bulls are attacking the 10-mth MA at 3925. There's 3924...... Keystone needs a heart pill...... ba-boom!!! What the heck happened? Price explodes to 3931, now 3929....... these are strange days in the rigged casino stock market. The bulls know they must maintain 3925 as support or they will die.

Note Added 1:40 PM EST: The SPX is at 3925.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 3/21/23, at 5:45 AM EST: The SPX comes back up for the back kiss. Of course it does. The 12-month MA is at 3959.25 and the regular session begins with the SPX at 3952. S&P futures are up +18 so the bulls plan to take out the 12-mth today. Stocks are up 80% of the time the day or so leading into the Fed rate decision which is tomorrow. Interesting, the new moon peaks today and stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon. Traders and investors will be waiting for Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High on Wednesday and tell everyone how to trade. Such is the crooked corrupt crony capitalism system on its last legs. The week will have to play out for the story to be told. Powell will control the direction of markets tomorrow. Wow. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios have fallen into the cellar. Any day forward, the stock market will begin dropping and the pullback will be substantive from 100 to 300 SPX points and probably a lot more. Obviously, moving forward, despite the bullish vibe, you want to exit longs and bring on shorts. Sometimes the tops can be stubborn on their timing but it will start any time over the next 10 trading days and likely within the next few days probably this week. Powel is of course a major potential pivot point that may be the catalyst to begin the blood and carnage. If he is not, and stocks rally on Wednesday, that will be a beautiful set-up to short into. It's gonna be a doozy when it hits boys, clear the decks, protect the women and children, bring in the airships. Some day this stock market is going to end.