NYA NYSE Composite Index Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Week MA at 15065 Dictates Cyclical Bull Versus Cyclical Bear Market

The NYA 40-week MA cross is a key metric for assessing cyclical stock market direction. It was first to indicate that the multi-month bear market was ending in November. The NYA moves above the 40-wk MA in the Fall signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. The SPX 12-month MA cross, however, the most important cyclical indicator, remained in a cyclical bear. Ditto the slope of the SPX 150-day MA a third metric. Thus, the US stock market has been in a choppy sloppy sideways malaise trying to pick a direction forward.

As March started, the NYA failed into a cyclical bear market pattern ahead so markets remain non-committal. This week, the NYA moves back above the 40-wk MA at 15065 a really big deal. Watch this closely since it tells you a lot about the direction of the US stock market going forward.

The SPX is above 4K having broken-out above the 12-mth MA at 3960 indicating a cyclical bull market ahead. The slope of the SPX 150-day MA is down so this metric signals a cyclical bear market ahead. The mixed bag continues. When the NYA 40-wk MA cross, SPX 12-mth MA cross and slope of the SPX 150-day MA all agree on the same cyclical direction, that will be the answer forward. At this minute, the NYA and SPX 12-mth are indicating cyclical bull but the SPX 150-day MA slope is saying cyclical bear.

NYA 15065 is an extremely important number. You can spend the day only watching this number and you will know more about what is happening in the stock market than someone studying a dozen other metrics. Bulls win big above NYA 15065. Bears win big below 15065. Every day that the NYA remains above the 40-wk MA is another day that says the bullish trend higher will continue for stocks. Bulls will be in trouble if NYA 15065 fails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:46 AM EST: The orgy was so much fun yesterday that all the bulls show up again today for another wild upside orgy in stocks. NYA jumps to 15241. Bulls are cheering walking around with their chests puffed-out. SPX is up to 4054.

Note Added 10:14 AM EST: NYA 15197. Bulls throw confetti as bears try to find 132 points to the downside so they can bring negativity again. The drama continues.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/31/23, at 5:30 AM EST: NYA 15201. Bulls rejoice.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/4/23, at 7:55 AM EST: Bulls are drunk on Fed wine buying anything with a heartbeat. NYA 15488. New money flows into the market for Q2.