SPX S&P 500 Monthly and Daily Charts; Battle for Cyclical Market Control Continues at the Critical 12-Mth MA at 3960

The drama continues with the critical SPX 12-month MA at 3960 which decides if the US stock market will remain in the 1-year cyclical bear market pattern, or, if a new cyclical bull market will begin above 3960.

Price is at 3949 so the bears are cheering and S&P futures have slumped-over to the downside now off -12 points. You know the drill by now. The 12-mth MA at 3960 is for all the marbles.

If price falls, watch the critical 10-mth MA at 3921-3924 that identifies the cliff-edge where traders take One Last Breath before collapsing into the abyss.

Bulls win big above 3960 that indicates buoyant stocks ahead. Bears win below 3960 and will create blood and carnage on Wall Street below 3921-3924. It's fun.

Use the important moving averages as support/resistance going forward to gauge the strength, or weakness, of the path ahead.

50-day MA 4014
200 EMA on the 60-minute 3980
20-wk MA 3976
50-wk MA 3966
100-day MA 3961
12-mth MA 3960 decides cyclical market direction
20-day MA 3955
Price is at 3949
200-day 3933
150-day MA 3924
10-mth MA 3922

The SPX daily chart is shown above with the moving averages lining out sideways along with price exhibiting the sideways symmetrical triangle development.  Yesterday's candlestick shadows clearly show the bulls and bears each exploring their limits. Bulls win big above 4014 since it is all clear skies above. Bears win below 3924 since there is nothing but darkness in the abyss. Between 3924 and 4014 is choppy sloppy noise.

Note the slope of the 150-day MA an important cyclical market signal. The 1-year cyclical bear market is on full display with the 150-day MA falling but in January, as stocks rallied, the 150 came to life heading higher indicating that a cyclical bull may be starting but alas, the pink 150-day MA line slumps-over and drops again, sloping lower, signaling that the 1-year cyclical bear market remains in place.

By definition, the SPX needs to be under the 150-day MA at 3924 to keep pulling the moving average lower guaranteeing bearish pain ahead.

Looking at the moving average S/R, you can see a cluster above at 3955-3966 so this is the gauntlet of overhead resistance the bulls must overcome. The cluster at 3922-3924 is the last gauntlet of support with Hades below. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:37 AM EST: Stocks are off and stumbling for an hour. The SPX falls at the opening bell testing 3933 support, and falls through so the test of 3922-3924 was next and it gives way. Dip-buyers cannot be deterred, however, so price quickly recovers and battles at the critical 3922-3924 S/R. Price is at 3936 so the the support below is holding. Copper remains buoyant so the bulls wear this feather proudly in their caps.

Note Added 11:24 AM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. Price falls through 3922-3924 support again now stumbling around at 3919. Blink your eyes and the SPX pops above 3924. The stock market battleground is obviously at 3922-3924 today.

Note Added 11:28 AM EST: SPX 3923.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/25/23, at 8:39 AM EST: The battle continued on Friday with the SPX busting up through 3960 at about 2:30 PM EST in the afternoon. Then a dip back below at 3 PM, but then back above 3960 for the closing bell. It is a broken record but the choppy slop continues this year. The bears could not gain downside traction because copper remains buoyant. Bulls could not run away to the upside because volatility remains bearish. Bulls win big if the SPX remains above 3960 and if the VIX drops below 21.08. Bears win big if the VIX remains above 21.08 and the SPX falls below 3960.