By K E Stone (Keystone)
After the US third wave subsided in February, much of the
country thought the pandemic was beat and there was nothing but blue skies and
rainbows ahead. Americans started planning trips and events as businesses
reopened. We all joined in singing the ole popular Negro spiritual, “Chariot’sA Comin’ Good News.”
But, paraphrasing boxer Mike Tyson, everyone has a great
plan until you get punched in the face. The US fourth wave begins in mid-March
about 6 weeks ago creating serious angst. The global variants begin spreading inside
America and Michigan remains the epicenter for the UK B117 strain. A race
starts between the vaccinations and the variants; a knock-down, drag-out fight
between injections and infections.
Happy to say, that the vaccinations are winning the covid
race in America. It was touch and go in the back half of March as wave four
began accelerating higher but in mid-April the wave started to roll over and
weaken which is a Christmas present in May. This month determines if the happy
pandemic outcome becomes a more permanent reality in the US and if normalcy,
whatever that is anymore, returns. For now, everyone joins in singing the REMsong, “Happy Shiny People” as the United States reopens schools and businessesand relaxes travel restrictions.
But, the developing joy in the US is tempered knowing that
India is suffering mightily. The doctors, scientists and television talking
heads repeat the mantra, “No one is safe from coronavirus, until everyone is
safe.” Vaccinations make a difference. The shots helped turn the USA case count
lower. Israel serves as a poster child for the positive outcome achieved from a
wide-scale and high-participation-rate vaccination program.
Italy’s vaccination program helped the country weather the
latest outbreak wave better than its neighbors. France is making great headway
with vaccinations and has finally managed to curl its active cases chart lower
after 4 months of non-stop upside. The Western world demonstrates how vaccines
make a difference and efforts must be doubled to help the developing nations
get their pandemics under control. Only 1% of India’s population was vaccinated
as the second wave took hold in March.
The worry is that the longer the China Flu circulates around
the world, the more mutants develop, and that could create a whole new round of
world-wide horror. The UK B117, South Africa B1351, Brazil P1 and India B1617
are difficult to eradicate but thankfully, the current list of vaccines shows
worthwhile efficacy against the variants. This is likely due to the variants
mostly impacting the spike protein. The fear is that the longer the coronavirus
lingers, the higher chance that a mutant strain will develop that is resistant
to the vaccines. In one India state, a new triple-mutant variant appears dubbed
B1618. So why worry about a double-mutant when you can worry about a
triple-mutant?
It is difficult to be happy in America considering the
tragedy in India and elsewhere around the planet. Families and individuals in melting-pot
America have many connections to all countries around the world so the focus will
be redirected to help other nations recover.
All countries will heal over time and then band together to
pay dirtbag Dictator Xi and the CCP a visit. The CCP’s bioterrorism aspirations
have inflicted an epic-scale humanitarian crisis upon the world. Communist China
will need to provide restitution. Cash or real estate would be fine. If not,
war.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above with wave four
exiting stage right. The chart is a welcome sight. Wave 3 was the killer that
ramped higher through the presidential election last November and into December
and January. Wave 4 is beaten down by the successful US vaccination program.
USA reports 39.9K daily new cases for yesterday, Monday, 5/3/21. The lower case
numbers are great, but further progress is needed. The 3-day MA trend line
continues printing lower lows and lower highs which maintains the downward
trend in daily new cases.
The 7-day MA for the US daily new cases is at 50.7K and
continues trending lower. The happy trend lower will continue as long as the
daily cases remain below 50.7K. America is now testing the low case counts from
last August and September after the second wave. We need to break down through
this support and drop to the low 20K’s daily case numbers to get back to the
lows from May/June 2020 after the first wave.
The US daily cases may never drop to zero as has occurred in
nations that handled the pandemic better. The CDC says 1 in 3 patients become
long-hauler’s. These are patients that exhibit symptoms such as shortness of
breath, fatigue and brain fog for many months after they recover from covid.
The medical folks are starting to move the public in the direction of viewing
coronavirus like the flu in the coming years where a yearly vaccination may be
required and the disease sticks around on a seasonal and regional basis for a
few years forward.
The US active cases chart is shown above. This is the
‘flattening the curve’ chart; the bell curve chart. As US case numbers fell in
February, so did the active cases but the downward trend stopped and the chart
instead started basing sideways. Typically, the bell-shape would have been
expected to drop lower. America blew it again. However, luckily, the doctors,
caregivers and scientists pumped vaccines into arms and now the active cases
curve is starting to roll over lower again.
But the virus has lingered in the US for 15 months and the
damage has been done. Over 33 million Americans are infected with COVID-19 and
almost 26 million call themselves recovered. That leaves the 7 million active
cases representing US citizens with ongoing coronavirus complications that
impact their daily lives. When you deal with health problems in life, you
realize how lucky and great life was when you did not have health problems, but
you never appreciated it back then.
Considering that 1 in 3 Americans may have lingering health
problems after the brunt of the covid illness subsides, the active cases, and
daily new cases charts, may never reach zero. This is a sad reality smacking Americans
in the face. Former President Trump mishandled the pandemic; it was a lack of
leadership, management and organization skills.
Getting backdown to zero case counts was possible after the
first two waves but after wave three, the US was screwed. The US charts will
likely base at some level above zero but only time will tell since the
lingering effects of the China Flu remain a broad unknown.
The US active cases chart above shows how America failed to
create the bell-shaped curve to defeat the virus but was saved by the
vaccinations. The variants remain at play especially as the virus lingers
around the globe. Herd immunity is the goal going forward but as explained
below, the concept has become another twisted chaotic communication mess.
The goal is to achieve herd immunity, or at least be at a
very low number of cases, on Labor Day, 9/6/21, going into the Fall and colder
weather. This is because vaccines will be provided for the new flu and covid
winter season and it will not be good if Americans go indoors with case counts
at already elevated levels.
COVID19 will likely become a manageable disease like the flu
and remain part of our lives for years to come. It is not the news people want
to hear but it is reality. As David Byrne and St Vincent sing, it is a “Wild,Wild Life; it’s scientific.”
The US daily deaths chart is shown above and the trend is
dead-flat, excuse the pun, sideways. 445 Americans die yesterday and it is
encouraging that the numbers are low in recent days, however, the 7-day MA
trend line is flatlining at 716 deaths. We need it to go down.
The 3-day MA trend line is in a potential expansion pattern.
On 4/29/21, the 3-day made a higher high, however, yesterday, it prints a lower
low. The trend had a chance to begin moving higher (bad) but it did not
although it is not wanting to move lower either; the deaths are moving
sideways. The expansion pattern hints that another higher high will come for the
3-day which would be above 920 deaths. The US must keep daily deaths below 716
to roll the 7-day MA over to the downside.
An early selling point of vaccines was that they would
prevent deaths but the doctors and pundits do not mention this much anymore. The
deaths are in a sideways pattern not moving lower. Deaths are lagging so in the
days ahead, or week or two, as the daily cases and active cases continue lower,
the deaths should follow along lower.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecastsbetween 594K and 618K deaths by 8/1/21. 600K is obviously in America’s future
with the death count at 591K and counting (IHME is estimating 574K deaths
currently with the data lagging the Worldometer data by a few days).
Wow. Hospitalizations and new admissions. “Celebrate!Celebrate Dance to the Music,” as 3 Dog Night sings. The CDC COVID Data Trackershows hospitalizations and new hospital admissions dropping off sharply to thedownside. It is a great sight. Too bad our friends in India cannot enjoy such
success but they will in the coming weeks.
The 7-day MA trend line for hospitalizations is at 34K anddropping. The prior lows in September were at 23K-24K so if the numbers drop
below these levels, you can throw confetti and drink an adult beverage. The
data lags by 2 to 3 days so the happier news is that hospitalizations may be
there already. New admissions are dropping down into the 3K handle range which
will get things back to the September lows. It is looking good.
Now the happy talk turns to sad talk. India’s daily new
cases chart is shown above. India is in turmoil with much-needed critical
supplies from the USA, France, UK and many other nations, already there and
more on the way. The oxygen shortage continues claiming lives daily. The people
are tragically, and inhumanely, dying from asphyxiation. To see the video and
film reels out of India is heartbreaking and devastating. The suffering and
death are numbing. You are not human if you are not crying.
India’s daily new cases are down for 3 consecutive days from
the top on 4/30/21 at over 402K daily cases; over 400K infections per day!
India just crosses the 20 million total cases grim milestone. If that downtrend
in daily cases can continue a couple more days, the 7-day MA trend line will
peak, crest and begin falling indicating that India’s second wave has crested.
Yesterday’s daily new cases are at 356K so the numbers must be below here and
lower every day ahead.
India must keep fighting the good fight, do what you are
doing, and keep trying to improve. More supplies will help and provide hope
which is a key element for any recovery. India’s active cases curve remains
parabolic heading straight vertical into the stratosphere but that will peak
out and reverse, to start to form the coveted bell shape, if the daily new
cases keep dropping as explained. India still has a long battle ahead for the
next month but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
India Prime Minister Modi receives criticism over the
pandemic as he should since he pulled a Trump, campaigning and telling everyone
all is fine when the COVID-19 cases were exploding higher all around him. Modi
lost an election in a key state last week but it is too soon to tell if Modi
will suffer the same fate as King Donnie Trump. India deaths remain elevated,
which is expected since deaths lag the daily cases by 2 or 3 weeks, with nearly
3.7K riding the vimana to heaven on Saturday, 5/1/21, a May Day tragedy, the
deadliest day of the pandemic.
India’s neighbor Bangladesh has rolled over its active cases
curve creating the bell shape so they are well on their way to recovery.
Pakistan’s active cases chart peaks a couple days ago so it makes sense that it
is India’s turn now for its case counts to begin subsiding. Bangladesh has a
similar population density make-up to India but imposed a lockdown which
dramatically and quickly decreased their outbreak while India continues
suffering. Modi told the states they can decide for themselves if they want to
lockdown another mistake from the Trump playbook in America.
Nepal is India’s neighbor to the north the land of the
monks. Sadly, the virus has taken hold and is bringing Nepal to its knees.
Nepal’s daily new cases chart is shown above with a new record high at 7.4K
cases reported yesterday. No nation escapes the wrath of the China Flu, even
the honorable monks.
Dit… dit …. dit… dit…news wires report Chinese military
aircraft violates Taiwan’s airspace. Stock futures tank this Tuesday morning,
5/11/21. This is a big deal. The dirtbag communists are flexing their muscles
testing the world to see if they truly care about Taiwan. We do. The Taiwanese
are great people and you know that if you ever worked with anyone or have
friends. The Chinese people are cool as well and only want to be left alone
like everyone else on earth but they have to unfortunately live under the CCP’s
commie rule. When murderer Dictator Xi says jump, you jump. Never trust a
dirtbag communist; they will slit your throat in the middle of the night.
Taiwan’s daily new cases are elevated in recent days which
begins a wave four. Taiwan’s active cases chart is shown above a great example
on handling the pandemic until the last month. As mentioned in previous
articles, especially with the close location of Philippines, the filthy CCP may
be playing games trying to get the island of Taiwan infected with virus since
that will provide an excuse for a soft military takeover just like the dirtbag
communists did to Hong Kong. The world is an ugly place, folks. If you knew
everything going on, you would become physically sick. Be happy. Ignorance is
truly bliss.
Let’s talk herd immunity a subject that is now officially
butchered beyond recognition. Constant misinformation and mixed messaging is
standard fare for the pandemic. Reporting scientific and difficult to
understand information is not a simple task and does not fit in nice little
10-second soundbites. Cable news outlets describe herd immunity incorrectly
every day.
Let’s clear up the confusion. Herd immunity is reached when
enough of the population is either vaccinated, or has built up natural
antibodies because of contracting the illness, that the virus can no longer
transmit easily. Therein lies the rub. News outlets and pundits keep
referencing herd immunity only to vaccinations which is incorrect. Herd
immunity is reached with a combination of vaccinations and natural antibodies.
What is the target zone for herd immunity? If you remember
early on in the pandemic, Dr Fauci was referencing different percentages and he
received a lot of heat over the differing numbers. Fauci quotes the 70% to 85%
range and has been consistent over the last few months. Thus, if you have 100
people partying in a room and no one is vaccinated, the virus spread will be
large.
However, if 70 to 85 people out of that 100 have antibody
protection, either from already being sick with covid, or from the vaccinations,
the party may rage on into the early morning hours and result in none or only a
couple infections which will be easier to trace. This is herd immunity where
the spread of the virus is stifled since it already infected most people or
others are vaccinated.
The problem currently is that the talking heads keep
referencing herd immunity to the vaccinations only. Typically, the infections
would be a far smaller portion of the population so the number can be ignored
when forecasting when herd immunity will occur. Herd immunity is a range and
something that develops over time rather than an on/off light switch. We are
not going to wake up one morning and say wow, we are at herd immunity. It
simply happens over time and is reflected in the data and charts.
Thus, the corrective measure is for anyone involved in
disseminating information to the public to state unequivocally that herd
immunity is achieved by both vaccinations and natural antibodies. Some of the
pundits may think by focusing only on vaccinations this will push the hesitant
people towards getting a shot but lying or jawboning the information will only
get you into trouble.
All that said, and as previous articles have laid out with
simple math, there are 240 million Americans that need vaccinated to reach the
coveted herd immunity goal. This takes into account people not showing up for
the second shot at a 10% rate (we are doing better than expected at 8%) and
other factors such as the number of people infected which have natural
antibodies which is estimated at 15% (50 million of the 330 million population)
to arrive at the 240 million number.
One of the most important soundbites from the CDC and other
medical folks last week is that 100 million people may already have been sick
with coronavirus and have some level of antibodies; three times the official tally!
This is one of the tricky moving targets with herd immunity since it remains an
unknown as to how long the antibodies will provide protection, as well as the
antibodies from the vaccinations. Both appear to provide protection for at
least 6 months and time and further testing will tell how much more.
Since the number of infected people may be/is far more than
realized, over 50 million more in reference to the ongoing herd immunity
example (CDC says 100 million may have been infected with coronavirus which is
30% of America), then only 190 million people require vaccinating to reach the
goal (240-50).
Let’s take a look at the vaccination story and factor thosenumbers into the ongoing calculation. The CDC COVID Data Tracker reports the USdaily vaccination rate down to 2.37 million doses per day (7-day MA). The US
vaccination rate peaked at 3.4 million doses per day 3 weeks ago. America is
now performing 1 million less shots in arms per day than 3 weeks ago. That is
the Gloomy Gus way of looking at things but if you put on rose-colored glasses,
the vaccination rate remains at a robust 2.4 million doses per day which is
great.
247 million doses have been administered in the US. Most are
the 2-shot Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines with about 10 million the
J&J vaccine. Denmark pooh-pooh’s the Johnny John vaccine saying that the
benefits do not outweigh the risks the opposite findings of the USA and other
countries. Denmark has already banned the AstraZeneca vaccine for the same
blood clot reasons so the decision to not use the J&J vaccine was expected.
You have to respect everyone’s thoughts and decisions.
106 million Americans are fully vaccinated (32% of America;
106/330); 1 in every 3 people. That is something to puff your chest out about
even if you do not plan to be vaccinated. 148 million people have had at least
one dose but this includes the 106 that are fully vaccinated so 42 million have
1-shot and are waiting on the second. If we assume all the vaccines are the
2-shot regimen, we can half the 42 million to 21 million and say this will be
the number of people to add to the fully vaccinated list.
Thus, 240 million people need vaccinated to arrive at herd
immunity and this number is corroborated by other scientists and doctors. The
240 is 73% of America (240/330) but do not view this number as directly correlating
to the Fauci proclamation of 70% to 85% for herd immunity. Remember, it is a
combination of vaccinated people and those that are/were sick and have natural
antibodies that make up the pool for herd immunity.
The vaccination information on The New York Times site is
misleading since it references the 70% plus vaccination goal for achieving herd
immunity, and how America is 32% of the way there, but there is no allowance
for natural antibodies. This is why the announcement this week that 100 million
Americans may have had covid, which is three times what is known, is very
important.
The 240 million number is based on 50 million already sick
so that is now reduced to 190 million needing vaccination because more
Americans have had covid than realized. 106 million are fully vaccinated and
another estimated 21 million are basically there or will be in a couple weeks,
so that is 127 million people that are vaccinated. Taking 127 away from 190
leaves 63 million more people that need vaccinated to reach herd immunity. We
are close and yet “So Far Away” as classy Carole King sings.
Let’s put the J&J single-shots to one side and say all
the vaccines are 2-shot, so we need 126 million more shots in arms (63x2) to
take care of the remaining 63 million Americans and achieve herd immunity, as
long as 63 million more Americans are willing. At 126 million more shots, and a
2.4 million dose per day rate, the US will achieve herd immunity in 52 days
(126/2.4); 6/25/21. June! Next month! Prepare the confetti and beverages and schedule
the band.
The Kaiser Foundation (KFF) shows 62% have received or planto get the vaccination which is 205 million people. 17%, or 56 million people,
are on the fence with a wait and see attitude. 7%, or 23 million, say they will
only be vaccinated if mandated to or if it is a condition of employment. 13%,
or 43 million, definitely will not get the vaccine. That poll of 261 million
people (205+56) is a big chunk of America and should be enough to get Uncle Sam
across the vaccination finish line.
Humorously, only 8% of democrats are not willing to be
vaccinated. It is almost universal that if you are a democrat, you will
immediately kneel and roll up your sleeve for your shot. The reason it is
humorous is because San Francisco is rated as one of the top vaccination cities
and boast that only 8% do not want to be vaccinated which happens to be the
same percentage as the democrat party. It is no surprise since the entire city
of San Francisco is mostly democrat. California in general is a liberal state and
boasts that only 11% are vaccine hesitant. All humans are different. Some like
to kneel and obey but some like to be rebels and raise Hell.
Medical folks will have to ditch the large-scale vaccination
sites and instead morph into the mobile units and pop-up vaccination sites that
can go directly into the cities and rural poor areas. Logistics will be the key
word in finishing out the vaccination program.
By going through the simple math, it is easy to understand
why the US cases are dropping off lower. The combination of vaccinations and
natural immunities are starting to significantly tamp down the pandemic in
America. Officials will now have to juggle this optimism carefully since being
too euphoric about the path ahead may stop people from wanting to be vaccinated
while painting a gloomy picture will further damage trust since the public is
looking around and thinking that things look pretty good.
Pfizer trials are showing strong efficacy for children
between 12 and 15 years young and approval by the medical board is expected in
the week ahead. This will add a few more million bodies to the herd immunity
goal and perhaps justification, in some minds, for pushing the child trials
through quickly?
Hitting the vaccine wall, or the tipping point, where the
lack of demand is overshadowing supply, remains a major focus of discussion but
as the math suggests, the US would be best off to focus their efforts on the
wait and see people and ignore the anti-vaccine folks. Nothing can be said to
convince the anti-vaxxer’s and hesitant and skeptical folks, and this is from
the author’s perspective, so why waste your energy on a hopeless task?
Focus on the logistics and Pfizer and Moderna providing
doses in smaller packages. Crank up the fleet of mobile units. FedEx and Unite
Parcel Service are making money hand over fist in this pandemic due to all the
deliveries so let them toss a few dozen trucks into the mix; the vehicles can
be quickly outfitted to handle vaccinations in the inner cities or in
Appalachia. The pandemic is not over. People must continue thinking out of the
box. Focus on the wait and see folks by taking the vaccine to them where they
live and the virus will be at a manageable flatline level in a month or so.
Humorously, the word on the street is that some folks are
waiting for President Sleepy Joe, the man with the dough, to shell out some
money for shots. Keystone has his ears to the street and comically, some folks
are joking that they and others are waiting for the government to offer $200 cash
for a shot and that is when they will show up. That is funny. Two hundo will
buy you a bottle of liquor, a haircut, a new polyester shirt, some cigarettes,
and plenty of cash to treat the ladies at the bars all weekend long.
From the not-so-funny department, in fact the mad
department, CVS and Walgreens have been reported to have wasted 100K vaccine
doses. This is a serious news story that will have legs. With all the suffering
ongoing around the world, wasting vaccine is a sin. The facts will have to be
verified and the reasons uncovered for the problems so they do not occur again
or in future pandemics. Meanwhile, CVS reports big earnings due to the expanded
covid business and the stock pops +2%. Billy the janitor takes the unused doses
out to the dumpster at the far end of the parking lot. Isn’t crony capitalism
great?
Minutes after Keystone explains herd immunity and how it is
a combination of both antibodies from the vaccines and natural antibodies, here
comes Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber to confuse the public. Dr Ezekiel Emanuel, instrumental
in developing and pimping Obamacare, and often sounding like a snake oil
salesman, appears on Bloomberg television proclaiming that 70% of America must
be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Wrong. It is the combination of the
vaccinations and people with natural antibodies. If anyone should know this it
is him and he does know.
Only about an hour later, President Biden steps up to the
podium proclaiming that 70% of US adults will receive at least one dose of
coronavirus vaccine by Independence Day, July 4th, 7/4/21. Say what? Talk about
confusing messaging. Do you really think the average American understands that
goal? No, they don’t. That is why most folks do not pay attention and are
starting to go on about their lives especially if vaccinated.
Sleepy Joey decrees that 160 million American adults will be
vaccinated by 7/4/21. May 4 to July 4 is two month’s of time or 9 weeks; 61
days. July 4th is a Sunday. From the CDC COVID Data Tracker, and the
information above, 106 million Americans are fully vaccinated and 148 million
have at least one shot. Biden’s new goal is the cryptic 70% of US adults. What
does that mean? 70% of the 330 million population or the adults are separated
out first, via census data, and then the 70% applied? If based on US
population, that is 231 million people.
If 148 million people have 1-shot now, take that away from 231
and the difference is 83 million more people to be vaccinated. If it is desired
to vaccinate another 83 million folks in 61 days with 1-shot to meet the
Independence Day goal, that is a rate of 1.4 million doses per day (83/61) and
we are at a rate of 2.4 million doses per day. You have to laugh out loud at
Joe Biden, master of the under-promising and over-delivering game.
If the 2.4 million doses per day rate held steady, the 83
million additional folks will be vaccinated in only 35 days; 6/6/21. Joey makes
the goal sound heroic but he is scratching his butt as he shuffles to the easily
doable finish line.
For the new goal of 160 million adults fully vaccinated by
7/4/21, this compares to the 106 million that are currently fully vaccinated.
Thus, 54 million more (160-106) need vaccinated. This calculation has a littletwist to it as Chubby Checker, the great entertainer, would sing. Currently,
another 42 million people already have 1-dose pumped into their arms. They only
need one more dose to be fully vaccinated. So 42 million doses will get you
another 42 million people fully vaccinated. Joey is a sly one, or his handlers
are sly ones is perhaps the more correct statement. In say, 3 weeks time, these
vaccinations will be complete so taking 42 from 53 is only 11 million more that
will need to be fully vaccinated.
If the 11 million receive the 2-shot regimen, that is 22
million doses. These inoculations can occur at the same time as the other shots
are occurring. 22 million doses at the current 2.4 million dose per day rate is
only 9 days time. This is another easy goal. The folks that currently have one
shot will receive their second and then Biden needs to drum up a few million
more and he is there. Now get up and do the twist celebrating the magicianpolitician.
It is not a coincidence that Biden calls out the 70%
vaccination number the same as Emanuel. It was mentioned flippantly above that
there may be a few talking heads saying that vaccines are the only way to herd
immunity as a means of pushing people to get vaccinated (ignoring the fact that
natural immunity plays a role), but these two announcements tell you that it is
actually a coordinated effort. It is sad, and sickening, to see a country
managed this way. Rigged crony capitalism is just another dirtbag corrupt ism
like all the rest.
Biden et al would be better off to be honest with the
American people and tell them we are close to herd immunity as Keystone
explains above. Use that as a tool to encourage the last grouping of people to
become vaccinated rather than lying and painting a picture that the only way
herd immunity can be achieved is if 70% of the American people are vaccinated.
It is not true. To his credit, Biden says thousands of US pharmacies will begin offering walk-in vaccinations.
It is correct to say that 70% of the American people must be
vaccinated or have natural antibodies due to exposure to COVID-19 to reach herd
immunity and 100 million Americans may have natural antibodies according to the
government’s own scientists (3 times the official numbers). But officials do not want to speak the truth. There is always a game going on. What can you do?
Everything is half-truths and lies anymore. That is why people do not believe
what they read or hear. Keystone, however, will always give you the straight
skinny. He keeps it real like Dave Chappelle.
One-third of the country is vaccinated and increasing daily.
One-third of the country has likely been exposed to COVID-19 and have natural
antibodies. Thus, two-thirds of America, 66%, is protected although there is some overlap of these two groups. This is why a solid
move lower is occurring in the US daily new cases. Why not tell the American
people the truth instead of lying and saying the only way to herd immunity is
with 70% of America vaccinated? Most people find it easier to lie than tell the
truth nowadays. In today’s world, officials tell lies to the American public
for the sole reason of supporting their sick political and tribal narratives.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 33.2 million. India jumps to 20.3 million cases a dramatic
increase over the last couple weeks. Brazil is third at 14.8 million cases. France
has 5.7 million cases. Turkey reports 4.9 million cases, Russia (4.8), UK (4.4),
Italy (4.1), Spain (3.5), Germany (3.4), Argentina (3.0), Colombia (2.9), Poland
(2.8), Iran (2.6), Mexico (2.3), Ukraine (2.1), Peru (1.8), Indonesia (1.7), Czechia
(1.6), South Africa (1.6), Netherlands (1.5), Canada (1.2), Chile (1.2), Iraq
(1.1), Philippines (1.1), Romania (1.1), Belgium (997K), Sweden (989K), Israel
(839K), Pakistan (838K), Portugal (834K), Hungary (784K), Bangladesh (766K), Jordan
(714K), Serbia (694K), Switzerland (666K), Austria (625K), Japan (603K),
Lebanon (528K), UAE (527K) and Morocco (512K).
Many of the numbers above are stabilizing. The numbers above
would typically tick higher to some extent, but this time, about one-half of
the nations above have held fairly steady. This is good news. Perhaps COVID-19
will follow the path of past viruses and simply peter out after about 18 months
of wreaking havoc. Belgium, Sweden and Pakistan jump higher on the list (bad).
Iraq worsens. 41 nations are over 500K total infections. This number is bumping
higher by 2 countries every 10 days.
The active cases list has the USA leading there as well
followed by India, Brazil, France, Iran, Italy, Ukraine, Turkey, Germany and
Russia to round out the top 10. These are the nations that have had the hardest
road to hoe.
Coronavirus has infected 154 million people worldwide. 3.2
million have died. Fortunately, 132 million global citizens have recovered from
the China Flu. 86% (132/154) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame a 2 percentage-point improvement over 10 days
ago. More young people around the world are getting sick over the last couple
months and perhaps they bounce back better than older folks.
Worldwide, 2.1% (3.2/154) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number has sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many weeks. 1 in every 48
people that are infected with COVID-19 around the world, will die, and this
number is relatively steady. Generally speaking, for the world, the mortality
rate from covid is at an impasse and cannot be driven lower.
2.0% (154/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 50 people on earth. This
number was flat at 1.6% for many weeks but ticked higher to 1.7% about 6 weeks
ago and then to 1.8% about 4 weeks ago and then to 1.9% a couple weeks ago and
now 2.0%. It is going in the wrong direction!
Global citizens are getting sick with covid at a faster rate
now than a month ago. Sadly, the variants are the reason for the uptick in the
global infection rate. India is greatly adding to the somber statistics. The
picture would be far more disastrous without the vaccines.
In the United States, 33.2 million people are infected with
covid. 591,600 Americans are dead. 25.9 million Americans have recovered from
covid. This equates to 78% (25.9/33.2) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19. The number is flat over the last couple weeks. 3 out of
every 4 Americans that contract the Wuhan Flu recover.
Rounding up to 80%, 4 out of every 5 Americans that become
sick with covid will recover without lingering effects. The US recovery
percentage is worse than the global recovery percentage because we are fat
bastards that eat cake, ice cream, doughnuts, hotdogs and potato chips living
an obese lifestyle. Gluten is embraced like a cozy warm blanket.
In the US, 1.8% (591/33234) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky week after week but the vaccines are supposed
to reduce deaths. It is amazing how this number will not budge month after
month. It will be a big deal when it does.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus dying. Interestingly, the 1.8% death rate is
stone-cold steady for months in America where the vaccine program is hitting
its stride. The death rate climbs to 2.0% globally over the last 2 weeks where
the vaccine programs are lagging and lacking.
10.1% (33.2/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. This percentage keeps moving higher
albeit at small increments. 1 in every 10 Americans have been stricken with
coronavirus. The minority communities are impacted disproportionately since
they tend to live in densely-populated areas. As highlighted above, the number
of infected Americans may be three times the current level so actually 1 in 3 or
1 in 4 Americans may have been stricken with the China Virus.
The United States has 22% (33.2/154) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 5 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US vaccination program is making a difference.
The US accounts for 18.3% (591/3229) of the China Flu deaths
in the world down by more than 1 percentage-point over the last month. 1 in 5
people that die from COVID-19 around the world are Americans. China knows how
to kill us off efficiently. The numbers are going in the right direction for
the US but that means more people are dying elsewhere, like India.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. This represents the maximum
stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare workers. Once the bell
curve forms the virus will be defeated.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the
countryside. Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the
peaks in the new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases
chart.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last couple months, no doubt as a result of the
medical community becoming better at fighting coronavirus over the last year,
this 28-day period has been reduced by a few days or more. In the lists below
for countries and US states, any of the projections that target 28 days may
occur a tad bit sooner say 2 or 3 days even a week or so sooner. The Keystone
Model will not change since it should remain consistent for the pandemic data
throughout the entire event. The peak in the active cases bell curve may occur
a few days before the target date listed.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, actually 11 days this time, and more data and information
become available to push the China Flu story forward.
This is Article 41 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This forty-first article
is published on Tuesday, 5/4/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward. Much of it
is not pretty because it is real.
All 41 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog.
The articles will be published as a complete set in the future via Amazon
called the Coronavirus Chronology. The articles form a pandemic bible. That is,
if the virus ever ends. The COVID-19 pandemic information and daily zeitgeist is
recorded in real-time which is priceless for those studying the pandemic in
future months, years and decades. The last couple articles are linked below if
you want to review or come up to speed with the COVID-19 saga over the last few
weeks.
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. TheCDC COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other nicely with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins and CDC data by a few days.
The worst countries with rising or flat daily cases or
active cases charts are highlighted below. The peaks in daily new cases are
shown and the projected peaks for active cases are based on the Keystone Model.
The peak and flattening of the active cases curve represents the maximum stress
on healthcare workers. The pandemic is not under control until the active cases
curve flattens and rolls over forming the bell shape.
The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the
list the hardest since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily new cases
occurring in real-time. Their active cases charts will take the most time to
roll over.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. Japan and South Korea have
excellent testing programs but are struggling to regain control of the
pandemic. Ditto Singapore which is now showing an increase in cases, albeit
small, like Taiwan.
The following nations are listed from bad to worse with
ongoing coronavirus outbreak waves in progress;
Denmark (Fifth Wave) (data is choppy
and erratic which hampers analysis)
3/10/21 New Case Peak Date (cases
rising)
3/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher trying to flatten)
3/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
4/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (may be peaking and flattening now)
4/2/21 New Case Peak Date
4/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher trying to top out)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/15/21 New Case Peak Date
4/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart spikes higher)
4/15/21 New Case Peak Date
4/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart may have peaked 4/26/21 give it a few days)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart is trying to curl back down after basing)
4/19/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever are 1/3/21, 4/3/21, 4/5/21, 4/12/21 and 4/19/21)
5/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days) (chart may have peaked 4/20/21 which makes for
questionable data)
4/22/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
5/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart continues higher)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/30/21 give it a few days)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date (record
cases)
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked give it a few days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever, huge spike higher)
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked 4/30/21 give it a few days)
4/28/21 New Case Peak Date
5/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (may have peaked give it a few days)
4/28/21 New Case Peak Date
5/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to peak and flatten)
4/29/21 New Case Peak Date (highest cases for fourth wave)
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Honduras (Continuous Wave)
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
5/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of fourth wave)
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/1/21
New Case Peak Date
5/12/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
5/1/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever over last week)
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever over last week)
5/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever during last 3 weeks)
5/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever over last few days)
5/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart is parabolic and frightening)
5/3/21 New Case Peak Date (huge
fifth wave; highest cases 4/29/21 and 5/3/21)
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
5/3/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fifth wave over the last week)
5/14/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
5/3/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Seychelles (Fifth Wave)
5/3/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
Egypt (Third Wave)
5/3/21 New Case Peak Date
5/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 28 days)
What a difference 11 days make. The global situation has improved although there are several hot spots remaining in play. Belgium, Greece and France are taken off the bad list since their active cases curves are rolling over to form the bell shape and signal better times ahead.
Germany’s past waves show that the 11-day period of an
authoritarian-style government be applied for the Keystone Model which targets
4/26/21 as the top in the active cases chart which occurs. Give Germany a few
days to make sure the active cases chart drops from here and forms the bell
shape. The Netherlands is having difficulty in eradicating the current wave.
Those pretty Dutch girls are just too huggable.
Egypt is reporting record daily new cases through today so
perhaps a nasty variant is hanging around the Giza Plateau. In Africa, Somalia
had a tough couple months but may be finally peaking on its active cases chart. Unfortunately, off of the East Coast of Africa is the Seychelles which is smacked hard by coronavirus that is spreading like wildfire. Interestingly, 60% of the Seychelles population is vaccinated with the mRNA shots but the virus spreads. Japan struggles to get the latest wave under control. Mexico is not on the list
but it looks shaky.
India remains the major global hot zone and that swath of
Southeast Asia misery extends from the stan’s down through India and Nepal,
Bhutan, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and onto Malaysia. Indonesia must keep its
guard up. Vietnam increases its border restrictions and checks and becoming seriously worried about a major outbreak.
In general, the active cases peak dates are occurring a few
days sooner than expected for the 28-day targets. The world knows a lot more
about handling coronavirus now than one year ago. Most nations, across the
board, now see their active cases curves peak, flatten and roll over within 1
to 3 weeks (7 to 21 days) of the peak in the daily new cases. This is positive
news.
There are difficult days ahead even after the active cases
curve peaks and rolls over, representing the maximum demand in healthcare personnel
and equipment, but at least folks know they are on the downside of the bell
curve and better times are ahead.
Next focusing on the US, the troubled states are highlighted
in the list below with their projections on when the active cases curve will
peak-out (max strain on healthcare system) as per the Keystone Model. The US states
below have flat or rising active cases curves. The worst states are at the
bottom since their daily new cases are higher in recent days.
South Carolina (Third Wave) (data
is suspect; probably an underreporting of daily cases)
1/16/21 New Case Peak Date (daily
cases starting to creep higher)
2/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher so daily case numbers are wrong)
3/18/21 New Case Peak Date (recent
cases becoming elevated)
4/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher so the data is problematic)
3/27/21 New Case Peak Date
4/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is trying to flatten)
4/1/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the third wave)
4/29/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (may have peaked 4/27/21, curve is trying to
flatten)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues floating higher instead of dropping if the daily cases
were correct)
4/13/21 New Case Peak Date
5/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (active cases curve oddly going down so this would be expected to curl
higher; the case numbers are likely underreported or there is some other
problem with the data)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is trying to flatten)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is trying to roll over)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever 11/20/20, 4/13/21 and 4/16/21)
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is trying to flatten)
4/19/21 New Case Peak Date
5/17/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for the fourth wave)
5/21/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/24/21 New Case Peak Date
5/22/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve trying to flatten)
4/29/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the fourth wave)
5/27/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
4/29/21 New Case Peak Date
5/27/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Missouri (Fourth Wave Begins)
5/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for the fourth wave)
5/30/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
5/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for the fourth wave)
5/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
5/3/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases for the fourth wave)
5/31/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Oregon and Washington on the US West Coast require close watching. New Mexico remains a concern even though it is one of the top states for administering vaccine. The top left quadrant of the state, where it borders Arizona, is vaccine hesitant; Navajo Nation. The native Americans must be skeptical of the vaccine so the government will have to go out to the reservations, and casinos, and kiss their dupa’s.
Florida republican Governor DeSantis, who will be running
for president in 2024, stands on a soapbox proclaiming, “The fact is, we are no
longer in a state of emergency.” Everything in Florida is reopened. It is party
time! Other states such as New Jersey, Connecticut and New York are reopening
as the vaccinated people are clamoring for things to get back to normal.
On Wall Street, retail stocks are bid through the roof on
the news that New York City will reopen. The CDC is slowly and timidly
reversing mask guidelines, mainly because they do not want to backtrack, but
the American public has moved on. Vaccinated and unvaccinated people are
starting to go about their affairs like pre-pandemic without paying attention
to the CDC anymore. The messages are too confusing anyway.
It has been 15 months of information bombardment from all
angles. Everyone is in charge but no one is in charge. The messaging is
confusing and chaotic. A lot of Americans have had enough and are tuning out
any further guidance from medical people. The CDC says masks are not needed if
people are vaccinated but the president still walks around all day with a mask
on. Go figure.
Oklahoma republican Governor Kevin Stitt proclaims, “Covid
is no longer an emergency.” The country is moving on regardless of what
officials profess anymore. People are ready to resume life and enjoy the spring
and summer.
These US states may begin a new wave higher and require
close study; Arizona, Texas, Iowa and Nebraska. Colorado was mentioned here
last time and now it is on the bad list above. Tennessee was also on this list
last time but its active cases curve is rolling over lower (good).
The following states are handling the pandemic well currently;
Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Montana, Nevada and Utah. Last
time, Missouri was placed on a warning and sure enough the daily new cases
spike to a 3-month high and now it is on the bad list. What happened Missouri?
Mississippi also reports a big spike in daily new cases on 5/3/21 so a wave
four begins. What happened Mississippi? Ditto Wyoming that sees a spike in
daily new cases beginning wave four and potential trouble ahead. Several states
on this list are looking shaky which is surprising since generally, the US is
looking the best it has in many months.
Medical folks will be surprised to see Mississippi, Wyoming
and Missouri now on the bad list let alone at the bottom of the bad list. It
would be wise to focus genomic testing in these three states to find out what’s
up. Oregon, Washington, New Mexico, Hawaii, Colorado, Louisiana, the Carolina’s,
Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Maine require close monitoring. Maine has a
great vaccination program but its active cases curve heads higher.
The US is doing a good job at fending off the virus and
several states improved and were dropped from the list above but too many
remain on the list and the trio at the bottom is concerning. For now, however,
the wet blanket will be shunned, and the expectation is that perhaps some of
these daily new cases are blips due to the way they are reported. Time will
tell.
The WHO is telling the world that they need to pony-up
billions of dollars for vaccines for the planet through next year. The corrupt
WHO, that lays on red satin sheets with the CCP each evening, should tell the
filthy communists to pay that bill. What do you think, planet Earth? The world
says yes, make dirtbag Dictator Xi pay for it all. The communist is playing
with bioweapons and released the bioterrorism upon the world.
The coronavirus pandemic continues. The world picture will
brighten once India’s active cases curve peaks and rolls over and the rest of
Southeast Asia improves. The variants are held at bay for now but the pandemic
is not over by a long shot. The northern hemisphere looks forward to summer
skies and low case counts, however, the southern hemisphere worries about the
chill in the air and the need to stay indoors over the coming months.
Note Added 10:00 PM EST: Pfizer is going to be testing the vaccine on babies. The Detroit Health Department begins canvassing door to door encouraging people to become vaccinated if they have already not done so. The door knockers are explaining where to go to get vaccinated and answering any questions. Many people, once they receive the in-person nudge and coddling, go ahead and take the shot. Perhaps Detroit's example can be implemented in other US cities. Detroit is also offering $50 to anyone that can drive someone to the vaccination and back home. The vaccination hesitancy issue is becoming hotter by the minute. The folks that are vaccinated are beginning to apply big pressure against those that are not. That usually leads to bad things happening. Dr Hotez, a knowledgeable doctor on vaccines at Texas Children's Hospital, and proponent of vaccines, an author of books and papers on the subject, is concerned that too many Americans will refuse to take the vaccine. As the KFF data shows, less than half of the republicans, 46%, want the vaccine while 79% of the democrats are agreeable to the shot. The concern is that the virus will continue in the non-vaccinated republican states. Several polls are asking the unvaccinated folks what incentives would work to get them to roll up their sleeves. A UCLA survey says 1 in 3 people would take the shot if $100 was offered. The KFF data says about the same, 1 in 5 people, would take the shot if offered $50 or $200. It looks like money is an incentive. Maryland offers $100 if you take the shot and West Virginia offers the $100 savings bond. Money talks and bull sh*t walks. Keystone's money talks and it is always saying, "Spend me, spend me." Dr Hotez is well respected and passionate on the subject of vaccines and opines, "When people are clamoring for vaccines in India and in Brazil, it (waiting to receive incentives to be vaccinated) just makes us look like a nation of sulky adolescents." Hotez further states, "If it is absolutely necessary (offering money to get the shot), sure, although it's tough to swallow."
Note Added 10:20 PM EST: America is a different place than years ago. The middle class was wiped out over the last 5 decades by the greedy elite class that sent the jobs overseas. The elite became more filthy rich from the rising stock prices since the overseas slave labor greatly reduced corporate expenses. Fellow Americans sold each other out because they liked the cheap crap offered at the local Walmart stores, in exchange for the lost middle class jobs, but after many years realize they got the short end of the stick. There will be payback. The middle class was the glue that held the country together; it does not exist anymore so the social unrest will only increase and likely morph into a class war. 30 million Americans, the elite privileged class and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, screwed the 300 million huddled masses. This leads to the growing societal problems, race issues, violence, social media bullying, mistrust and screw-the-government attitude by many people. We passed all the exits and are firmly on this road south now whether anyone wants to be or not. It is out destiny.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/5/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 42K daily new cases yesterday another nice low number. Keep them coming and keep them moving lower. Unfortunately, 853 Americans die yesterday. India's daily new cases are 383K which is not good. This will extend the topping behavior in the active cases curve. India cannot catch a break. Oh-no. India reports 3,786 deaths yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. At the G-7 meeting in the UK (a meeting of foreign ministers to discuss world events), the Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and his group are self-isolating after two members test positive for coronavirus. It sends a chill through the G-7 event. India is not a G-7 member but was invited to the event and now they are holed-up to see if anyone else becomes sick.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/5/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Pennsylvania democrat Governor Wolf plans to lift the coronavirus guidelines on 5/31/21 across the board. The caveat is that mask use will continue until 70% of the population is vaccinated. Here we go again with this 70% vaccination garbage. There is obviously a concerted effort by the democrat party to push the narrative that the US will not be normal until 70% of the population is vaccinated. For whatever reason, the people in power want everyone to have that mRNA vaccine in their bodies. It is starting to sound like there are ulterior motives for such deceit in the messaging. As stated several times above, herd immunity is achieved when 70% to 85% of the population has antibody protection either through a covid infection or with a vaccine. Biden and the democrat leaders are conveniently ignoring any mention about natural immunity. They are dishonest telling Americans that 70% of people must be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. The CDC's data says as many as 100 million Americans may have been infected with covid, far more than anyone thinks. This is one-third of the country. It is a terrible misstep by politico's to push this '70% must be vaccinated' narrative. It is sick. It will backfire. About 30% has natural immunity and another 40% is vaccinated which is already at 70% (although there is some overlap of these two groups). This is why the daily cases are dropping in the States; the herd immunity aspect is increasing. A 70% vaccination level may happen in Pennsylvania but it will take many months. Wolf wants Pennsylvanians to keep wearing masks through the remainder of the year; this will go over like a lead balloon. Here comes New Jersey democrat Governor Phil Murphy touting, what else, the '70% must be vaccinated' narrative the democrat talking point du jour. Isn't the crony capitalism system sickening folks? Hey Murphy, did you factor in the number of people already sick with covid that have natural antibodies? Oh, you didn't. Of course you didn't.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/5/21, at 6:00 AM EST: United Parcel Service and FedEx are providing support and aid for India. It is great to see the world's two shipping giants step up to the plate. Good on them. People are donning masks that stick out more from the face and look like a dog muzzle. The mask stuff is getting old.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 5/5/21: The medical talking heads are disassociating the herd immunity term from the '100% of Americans have to be vaccinated' narrative. For the last year, we are told that 70% to 85% of the population either needs to have natural immunity or be vaccinated to reach herd immunity or, more generally, to stop the virus from spreading. The last few days the message changed to needing 70% of Americans vaccinated for herd immunity (ignoring those already stricken with covid which may be as much as one-third of the US) but now it flips again and there is no connection between the 70% of Americans need vaccinated narrative and herd immunity. Is that clear as mud? The messaging on the pandemic is a disaster over the last year. Trump could not manage himself out of a paper bag and the disorganized mess continues through 2021. Once a project, or in this case a pandemic, starts down the road in a messy disorganized way, that ship can almost never be righted. It will be a mess until the project, or pandemic, ends. One of the main problems is that there has never been one person solely in charge as the figurehead speaker. Therefore, people are left to cobble together directions from many people and the comments sometimes differ depending on who is talking. After a year of that, people say screw it and simply use common sense and ignore the rhetoric from medical bigshots. After this latest messaging mess, the narrative about 70% of Americans needing vaccinated continues but the talking heads do not want this goal associated with the herd immunity term. The Whitehouse holds a taskforce meeting and Slavitt, Walensky and Fauci sing in unison that getting vaccinated is a very easy task and everyone should go for it at their earlier convenience. The red 'Easy' button image from television commercials is shown on a slide to reinforce the message that the government will do everything possible to get you the free shot if you want it. Everyone knew a year ago that at least 20% of the population would not take the vaccine if one was developed. If you recall, the polls indicated that 35% of Americans did not want a vaccine. Current polls are in the 20% to 25% range so the officials should be happy with that improvement. If your evening house guests are vegans, you do not insult them by serving hamburgers with sides of bacon. Why would the US government, knowing that 1 in 5 Americans, maybe close to 1 in 4 after the AstraZeneca and J&J missteps, do not want the vaccine, continue to insist that people take the shot? When you stop hitting your head with a hammer you discover that it feels good. It is trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. Officials are concerned that republican states may see serious outbreaks of COVID-19 since broad swaths of the population will not be vaccinated. So be it. The hospitals are nowhere near capacity and that was always the main concern in managing the pandemic. If you went to college, you heard of the 'penis envy' term in psyche class; the US medical officials have 'Israel envy' right now. Israel has vaccinated the majority of their population driving infections dramatically lower. The US officials want to repeat the same pathway for America but the two countries are very different from each other. If Americans do not want the shot, leave them alone. Some folks live out in the sticks (rural areas), and do not interact with the population daily, so they see no reason to take the shot. These unvaccinated folks know the risks to their health and they may croak if they contract covid, and, the government always knew part of the population would never take the vaccine. Let's all sing along with Doris Day as each day is appreciated, "Que Sera, Sera, whatever will be will be."
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 5/5/21: Moderna reports that booster shots are showing success in handing virus mutations. Canada considers mixing vaccines due to delays and problems with shipping and logistics. Canadians that have received one shot and waiting on the second may be instructed to take the AstraZeneca or J&J vaccine as a second shot instead of Moderna or Pfizer. What kind of Frankenstein experiment are they doing up there? This type of news only serves to chase people away from vaccinations. Remember, the vaccines are not approved for regular use; they are only permitted for broad use under emergency approval. Pfizer is seeking full FDA approval which would likely encourage many people sitting on the fence to get the shot. Moderna is also pushing forward to receive full approval for its vaccine. The US is getting into a twisted discussion about summer camps for kids. What are the rules? The CDC wants children to wear masks while playing soccer (football) or other physical games but some doctors and many parents are saying enough is enough. The CDC needs to come out with simpler and more lenient guidelines. The concern was always about overwhelming the hospitals and healthcare workers but the peaks from January are in the rearview mirror. It does not mean that a serious outbreak cannot happen again, it probably will at some point in the future, but now it is time for people to start living again.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/6/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The USA tops 593K deaths from the China Flu. Yesterday's daily cases are at 46K remaining subdued but we need them to keep moving lower. The 3-day MA trend line for daily new cases prints a lower low which is a good thing since it verifies that the downtrend in cases in the US is in tact and continuing. 743 Americans die yesterday. Michigan is over 19K total deaths from the pandemic and heading in the right direction but the rollover of the active cases curve is slow. Michiganders must like to party and comingle. Oregon is over 2,500 deaths and daily new cases are elevated at 806 yesterday. Washington state crosses the 5,600 deaths grim milestone. New Mexico is above 4K dead. California is over 62K dead. 185 Floridians die over the last 2 days which are elevated numbers. New Jersey reports a huge spike in daily new cases yesterday over 2.5K. The US appears in good shape but must remain vigilant. Stay the course. Coronavirus may simply be flittering away after about 18 months which has occurred with many prior virus outbreaks.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/6/21, at 2:30 AM EST: India exceeds the grim 230K deaths milestone. 3,982 people die yesterday, 4K, the deadliest day of the pandemic. This is said every day. It is tragedy beyond human comprehension. India reports 413K daily new cases a dire number. It is not only the highest ever but above the prior high at 402K. A higher high is not good. India's second wave will continue for a while. God Bless them. Honduras is in bad shape so medical folks need to remain vigilant in Central America. The Seychelles Islands are bad reporting a huge spike in daily cases to 500 the highest ever. Somalia is not out of the woods yet and continues to deal with a bad outbreak. Oh rats! South Africa reports 2,073 daily new cases yesterday the highest since February. Sadly, a third wave is likely starting in South Africa; you are watching its conception now. America will hopefully continue making great strides in beating the China Virus down this month so efforts can then be focused and redoubled on helping the rest of the world defeat covid. China really did a number on the world releasing the coronavirus bioweapon but their day will come.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/6/21, at 4:30 AM EST: Several global governments are seeking a temporary stop to IP (intellectual property) rules governing the pharmaceutical industry. Countries want to be able to manufacture vaccine locally to increase availability and reduce price. Pharma companies will not be anxious to give up the goose that laid the golden egg. The drugs are patented and that information is available for potential licensing. Even if other companies began manufacturing the mRNA vaccines, they would need the same raw materials such as animal proteins. These materials are in limited supplies and must be protected against contamination. Manufacturing the vaccine is more difficult than people realize. It sounds good for everyone to make batches but it is not like the church social where everyone buys the same plentiful ingredients at the store to bake cakes. The messaging likely has other intent than actually expecting vaccines to be jointly produced. First, this discussion will continue to place heat on big pharma's back to keep producing and find ways to increase production so the rest of the world can be helped as fast as possible. Second, it would be many months before an operation would be able to be up and running, everyone knows this, and by then who know what virus or mutation would be occurring. The reason behind the messaging is to encourage big pharma to start building plants in different parts of the world, such as third-world countries, especially since there will be future viruses and pandemics. President Biden is in support of waiving patents on coronavirus vaccines. Biden is a shrewd politician. He knows that patent information can be accessed through licensing. He knows that it will take too long a time for a new plant to come up and running so he provides lip service on the topic. Biden is not giving anyone anything but at the same time he sounds like a hero. The stage lost a great actor when Sleepy Joe won the election. The news about a potential temporary halt to IP protections in the pharma industry sends stocks tanking. In US trading yesterday, Moderna, MRNA, collapses -6%. Germany's BioNTech, BNTX, has plummeted -20% over the last couple days. In European trading, BioNTech crashes -17%. Curevac tumbles -10%. Pfizer, PFE, is down -3%. Johnson & Johnson, JNJ, loses -1%. Wealthy traders and investors are locking in profits after a year of easy upside gains in the big pharma and biotechnology stocks courtesy of coronavirus.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 5/6/21: Over the last couple days, Brazil President Bolsonaro says China may have developed COVID-19 in their laboratories. Bolsonaro claims that China may have released the virus as a biological weapon with the intent to gain economically. He is probably not that far off the mark. China refuses to cooperate with the international community in determining the origin of the coronavirus. China, the CCP, will have to pay for their nefarious deed but first the world must heal; then we will collectively knock on dirtbag Dictator Xi's door seeking restitution.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/7/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Vaccine shaming may be back in vogue. Medical officials are losing patience with the people that do not want vaccinated. Individuals that have been vaccinated are lecturing others to get the shot calling them unpatriotic and insinuating they are bad people if they do not comply. The vaccinated people will tout the importance of their family and how others should care about them. Get a grip. In reality, a lot of people could not care less about you or your family. That was the life path you chose for yourself so deal with it. Most of the wealthy elite class and upper middle class sycophants that service the rich, have been vaccinated. They scream from the rooftops for everyone to be vaccinated. Of course they do since they are the ones that have the most to lose. The wealthy raped the country for all its worth over the last 12 years. Perhaps the greedy souls realize that having all the money you every would want is not good if the rest of the country falls into poverty and social unrest. The huddled masses have nothing to lose; many are renters, they have a beat-up car and maybe a couple K in the bank. These different perspectives effect the direction of the pandemic including the decision to be vaccinated, or not. The gentler approach of encouraging people to become vaccinated is morphing back into the confrontational approach. Medical talking heads repeat every 2 minutes, "Get vaccinated." After a while, that simply becomes background noise. The vaccine proponents and enthusiasts have already taken the shot. Remember the long lines and the hysteria at the vaccination sites? If you look at a vaccination site now, there are tumbleweeds rolling by and you can hear crickets in the background. Actually, that piercing sound you hear in the US is the cicada that are emerging from their 17-year slumber. An Israel study on the Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine reports that the first dose provides 57% protection while the second dose provides 95% protection. We were told for the last year that the first shot provided about 80% and higher efficacy. That is a huge gap big enough to drive a Mack truck through (57% versus 80%). However, the 57% is a good number if you want to encourage people to make sure they come back for the second shot. A US poll just released shows the number of Americans not willing to be vaccinated drops to 20%. It has been hovering here but other polls have been calling out higher numbers and a year ago 35% of Americans did not want a shot. That 20% number is good news. It tells you that people on the fence are stepping-up and taking the shot now that the lines and commotion are gone. The 20% not willing to be vaccinated will likely remain that way through the pandemic. The US should be happy that 4 in 5 folks are willing to be vaccinated. This, along with the natural antibodies, should make for a happy summer in the United States. The vaccine shaming and focus on the unvaccinated people will probably subside over the next week or two as the US daily cases keep dropping.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/7/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The USA crosses above the 594K deaths grim milestone. 600K deaths from COVID-19 will become a reality in about 9 days probably next weekend. 860 Americans die yesterday. The US reports 48K daily new cases yesterday. The last couple days of cases and the 7-day MA, are bunched in the 46K-48K range so this support/resistance line in the sand carries clout. Happiness and a joyful summer is ahead if the daily new cases drop below 46K and trend lower into the 30K's (expected path), or, misery is ahead if the daily new cases begin ramping higher, above 48K, then a day above 50K, then higher. The US looks good and going in the right direction although there are several states that remain a concern. Michigan is starting to screw-up with daily new cases popping slightly. Michigan may develop into a mess again; who is running that show up there? Get your act together. The India tragedy continues with deaths topping 234K. That is about six baseball stadiums of people dead. India will bear the mental and emotional scars for many years to come. Right now, it remains all hands on deck and no one has time to grieve. India reports 414K daily new cases another new record but only squeezing out yesterday by 1K. India will not see relief on the way until the daily new cases peak out so the misery, pain, confusion and death continues. 3,920 Indians die yesterday only surpassed by the prior day's 3,982 souls. Oxygen and water are our two life-sustaining needs as humans. Take either away, and we die.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/7/21, at 8:40 AM EST: Montana and South Carolina are eliminating the additional supplemental unemployment compensation offered to individuals due to the pandemic. Business owners say the extra money above regular unemployment that the government is providing has incentivized some workers to stay on the dole instead of returning to work. Employers complain that they cannot find workers but the US Monthly Jobs Report hits minutes ago and only offers 266K jobs missing the 1 million jobs expected by a mile. Perhaps the employers cannot find workers because they are paid peanuts. Several Pittsburgh businesses are back to full employment again but they did have to bump up wages in some cases double compared to pre-pandemic. The unemployment rate climbs to 6.1%. The jobs number is disappointing and leaves egg on the faces of economists that predict rainbows and blue skies ahead. Some workers may be taking care of loved ones, or remain concerned about contracting the virus, and figure they may as well wait until unemployment runs out before returning to a job. Women, as usual, bear the brunt of the pandemic. The at-home schooling typically falls on Mom's shoulders. The year is challenging and stressful balancing work and school. Data shows that women's careers are set back. The child care aspect and looking after ill family members likely have more to do with people remaining on unemployment compensation a couple more months than the supplemental payment. President Biden is asked about the low job numbers and if people are purposely remaining on unemployment compensation instead of returning to work. He says the number of people that may not be returning to work for that reason is minimal. Isn't it rich that the wealthy elite class rapes the crooked crony capitalism system for all its worth over the last 12 years, courtesy of the Federal Reserve's money-printing, effortlessly receiving millions in profits on stocks, and then turn around and begrudge a peon for staying home a couple extra months to take care of a sick family member or deal with childcare difficulties. It is plain as day that the country is gonzo. The rich took all the money. Let the class war begin.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 5/7/21: The weaker than expected jobs report is receiving a lot of media attention today. Officials are talking up the process of Pfizer seeking approval for its vaccine that is currently used under emergency approval. The talking heads think that more people will want to be vaccinated once the vaccines are officially approved. This is correct since many employers have said that they do not feel comfortable asking, or perhaps mandating, that workers become vaccinated unless the vaccines are officially approved. About 100 colleges and universities want students to be vaccinated before Fall classes begin but several of them would like to see the vaccines receive the official approval designation. The official approval also provides the advantage that your doctor can give the shot in the office. The Vaccines.gov website is easy to use and it is simple to find the nearest place offering vaccinations. People can also text 'GetVax'. This is a text to '438829'. The GetVax letters correspond to the numbers on the telephone key pad. There is also a toll free number to call 800-232-0233 to find a vaccination site near you. The Spanish-speaking folks can text 'Vacuna' or '822862' to find the nearest vaccination site. Keystone is still waiting on a reply from Nurse Goodbody, Gunilla, about potentially receiving his first shot in the left buttock cheek and the second shot in the right cheek. She is discussing the matter with Dr Ben Dover. She did say that Keystone could wear his blue Superman tee shirt if/when he is vaccinated.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/8/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The India tragedy continues with 401K daily new cases which is 3 consecutive days above 400K cases. This is equivalent to the entire state of Maine, every single person, becoming sick with covid over a 3-day period. It is hard for the mind to comprehend. India is in covid Hell. The 401K cases are off the top over the last 2 days so hope springs eternal that the daily cases may roll over. 4,194 Indians die yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic which is said day after day. The funeral pyres burn up and down the Ganges River. Wood used to burn the bodies remains in tight supply. Nepal's crisis deepens with daily new cases above 9K the highest ever. Sri Lanka and Maldives descend into covid Hell with daily new cases spiking higher to record levels. The outbreaks are spiraling out of control. Germany crosses 85K total deaths but on a positive note, the daily new cases are subsiding and the active cases curve is rolling over forming the bell shape. Germany is on the mend. The Netherlands better bear down and get serious because things are starting to look shaky in the land of the windmills. Belgium, too. Daily cases and deaths continue rising in Saudi Arabia. Bolivia and Paraguay are in terrible shape. Oh-no. Malaysia reports 4.5K daily new cases the highest of the current wave and fifth highest ever. The Malaysia outbreak is beginning to spin out of control. Indonesia reports a spike in new cases.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/8/21, at 4:30 AM EST: The USA reports 49.5K daily new cases a higher number than desired but it remains below 50K and the Friday number is always the highest data day of the week. In this context, things continue to look good for the US. The 7-day MA is at 45K so numbers higher than 45K are not desirable, however, the weekend is here, and the Saturday and Sunday numbers should be low. Hopefully, there will be a daily cases number in the 30K's this weekend. If you bring up the 3-day MA trend line on the US daily new cases chart, you see the lower low in the trend line and now it moves higher again and will place another high over the next couple days. The key is that the 3-day MA must print a lower high to maintain the downward channel trend of the data. Huh? The prior high for the 3-day MA was on 4/30/21 at 58.7K daily new cases. The 3-day MA is currently at 48K moving higher and will peak over the next couple days. If the 3-day MA peaks and rolls back over below 58.7K, the downward trend is in tact and will continue (fantastic news). If, however, the 3-day MA prints a higher high, that is not good because it says the downtrend is broken and choppy sideways is ahead instead. It looks good that the 3-day MA downtrend should continue. Illinois has been receiving a warning the last few days and daily cases spike higher yesterday. Illinois needs to keep its guard up or a heap of trouble may occur. Illinois deaths are elevated at March levels. Michigan continues struggling at rolling over its active cases curve which is a bad reflection on leadership.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 5/8/21: The CDC says COVID-19 is an airborne transmissible virus that can infect people from more than 6 feet (2 m) away. Simply stay away from people, physical distance-wise, to the greatest extent possible. NIH Director Collins is slightly downplaying natural immunity. Over the last couple weeks, the medical officials are carrying out a concerted effort to either not mention or downplay the natural antibodies developed after having covid. But the comments only go so far. People are told the vaccine provides better protection, and that is likely the case, but there is not enough data available to draw that conclusion. The reason that natural immunity is downplayed is because they want you to get vaccinated. Some people that had covid figure they have natural protection and do not need the vaccine. It is more psychological games played on, what the elite's perceive to be, a dumb, stupid public. The WHO provides emergency approval for Chinese-backed Sinopharm's vaccine. Of course they do. The WHO and CCP comingle on red satin sheets each evening fostering their close relationship. Music performers join forces with celebrities and politicians for the Vax Live concert to reunite the world. The event encourages world citizens to get vaccinated and for the wealthier nations to send more vaccine to poor nations. J Lo (Jennifer Lopez), Selena Gomez, the Foo Fighters (Dave Grohl) and Eddie Vedder (Pearl Jam) are some of the musicians performing.
Note Added Saturday Evening, 5/8/21: The US vaccination rate drops below 2 million doses per day to 1.98 well off the peak at 3.4 million doses per day administered in the US in early April. Uncle Joe Biden may be movin' kinda slow, but he is a sharp political operative that knows how to under promise and overdeliver. Biden proclaims that 70% of adult Americans will be vaccinated by Independence Day, 7/4/21. Wow. What a goal! Is it? No. There are currently 151 million Americans inoculated with at least one shot. Applying the 70% to the 330 million US population is 231 million people. Taking the 151 from the 231 leaves 80 million Americans that need vaccinated to reach Biden's 70% goal. At the current 2 million doses per day US vaccination rate, that will take 40 days which is 6/18/21; mid-June. Looking at it from another angle, there are 55 days until the July 4th fireworks. If 80 million more people need a shot to reach the president's goal, that is a vaccination rate of 1.45 million doses per day. The vaccination rate is slumping lower but it would have to drop all the way down to 1.45 million doses per day to threaten the president's goal. Further, at the current 2 million doses per day rate and the goal 55 days away is 110 million doses to come which would total 261 million people (151+110) or 79% which is 30 million people over the goal and 9 percentage-points over the goal. In addition, note how the president says 'adult population'. That is left out there as a dangling participle. That is a Sleepy Joey ace in the hole. If for some remote reason the 70% goal is not achieved, the numbers will be adjusted based on 'adults' in the population which would lower the threshold needed and make Baby Joey a winner that way. You can never beat the house. All the demopublicans and republocrats are skilled liars and game-player's in America's corrupt crony capitalism system. Two other wild cards are at play. Emergency approval for the Pfizer vaccine will likely occur for 12 to 15 year old's this week adding several more million vaccinations. Also, the vaccines will likely be pushed through the transition from emergency approval to official approval because the military will then make the shot mandatory for million is more vaccinations. Sleepy Joe will be carried across that 70% finish line no matter what and then claim victory, and ask for some pudding, and ponder where he left his hat.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/9/21, at 2:30 AM EST: Happy Mother's Day! Thanks to all the Mom's that are handling the brunt of the pandemic for the family. The USA is over 595K deaths. 648 American souls perish yesterday from the Wuhan Virus which is fortunately back below the 7-day MA trend line at 676. The US reports 36K daily new cases. Yippee. A 3-handle. Hopefully, Sunday will be another number in the 30K's. The data is expected to be light since it is the weekend. Bring up the US daily new cases chart with the 3-day MA trend line and the moving average has placed another peak at 48K on Friday, 5/7/21. Remember, the prior high for the 3-day was 59K on 4/30/21. Since the 3-day MA trend line now prints another lower high, the downtrend in daily new cases remains in tact and should continue at least another week if not longer. As long as you see the 3-day MA printing lower lows and lower highs, you can dance an Ode to Joy while tossing confetti in the air. Next watch the 3-day MA trend line move lower and make sure it prints a lower low to guarantee more happiness ahead. Michigan shows a further drop in the active cases chart which was greatly needed. Colorado crosses the grim 6,500 deaths milestone. 42 people die in North Carolina yesterday from covid the deaths remaining at elevated levels. Hawaii may have a great vaccination rate but the daily new cases remain elevated for 2 months. Hawaii, Massachusetts and Vermont are at 70% vaccination levels meeting President Biden's goal (70% of Americans to be vaccinated by 7/4/21). San Francisco is a city that has reached the 70% threshold.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/9/21, at 3:00 AM EST: India reports 409K daily new cases yesterday that is four 400K+ days in a row. 4,133 Indians die yesterday the second day above 4.1K deaths. The Lancet criticizes India for not preparing properly after the first wave and instead continuing with cricket matches, campaign rallies and religious ceremonies. The IHME now predicts that 1.7 million Indians will be dead by 9/1/21. Dear Lord. This is a real projection which is above the official numbers reported. The IHME estimates that 734K Indians are dead from COVID-19. India's official number is 242K dead which only counts hospital deaths and not those dying at home or in the parking lot of the hospital. Thus, the IHME is applying a multiplier of 3 to the data to arrive at a more realistic number for the ongoing horror in India. Pakistan shows a couple days of elevated cases. With the end of Ramadan, there is concern that Pakistan and Bangladesh may see new outbreaks. Massive crowds gather to celebrate the Muslim Holy days. The world watches the tragedy in India unfold after the huge Hindu celebrations. Daily cases and deaths continue rising in Sri Lanka and Maldives. Oh-no. South Africa reports 2.5K daily new cases the highest number since mid-February. Sadly, South Africa is starting a wave three. Malaysia reports 4,519 daily new cases the highest of this wave so COVID-19 problems will persist. Daily cases are spiking in Indonesia. Thailand reports big case numbers.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/9/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Two people in embattled New York Governor Cuomo's inner circle resign as the investigative heat is turned up on the brewing nursing home and sex scandals. Give it up Casanova Cuomo. Several states such as North and South Carolina and Washington state are paring back on requests for vaccine shipments due to the lack of demand for the shots. Interestingly, these three states require close monitoring as case counts remain elevated. Perhaps that is why the cases remain stubbornly high; unvaccinated people keep getting sick.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 5/9/21: The incorrect narrative for herd immunity has confused the public and the media. For example, loud and clear on WABC radio out of New York, and this is occurring everywhere, the news states that 70% to 90% of the population needs vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Wrong. IT IS MISINFORMATION. HERD IMMUNITY IS REACHED BY THE COMBINATION OF NATURAL ANTIBODIES DEVEOPED FROM BEING EXPOSED TO COVID-19 AND PROTECTION PROVIDED THROUGH VACCINATION. The stupid public does not notice the change in message over the last two weeks. The medical officials are lying about herd immunity (saying it can only be achieved through vaccination) because they are trying to encourage people to become vaccinated. Do the ends (getting more people vaccinated) justify the means (spewing misinformation to the public to dishonestly push people towards being vaccinated)? You can decide for yourself. America's deceitful media manipulation and narrative messaging is on full display. THE MOST CORRECT STATEMENT IS THAT HERD IMMUNITY WIL BE ACHIEVED IN THE US WHEN 70% TO 85% OF AMERICANS DEVELOP ANTIBODIES EITHER FROM CONTRACTING CORONAVIRUS OF THROUGH VACCINATION. Tune out the other garbage. The misinformation campaign is reminiscent of the early stages of the pandemic last year when Fauci told everyone that masks will not help. The medical folks spun that narrative to buy time where the hospitals and medical facilities could grab-up any N95 and other masks available. The pandemic began with deceit. Americans saw video of medical folks in HAZMAT suits and other PPE (personal protective equipment) handling sick patients and the jig was up. Americans knew that they were lied to about masks so all information from there forward is mistrusted and questioned creating the chaotic mess. Instead, the US should have rallied the troops. The America of yesteryear would have told the people that the virus is extremely contagious and all masks and other PPE should be saved for and provided to hospitals. This is how a population, or group, such as the Marines, would build espirit de corps (a feeling of common pride, loyalty and ownership, that we must all band together and save the masks and PPE for the healthcare workers). It would have led to a far better outcome last year and less of a virus mess this year. But America is no longer the nation of yesteryear.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 5/9/21: Dr Fauci proclaims, "There is no doubt...that we have been undercounting (the US deaths from covid)." It is a surprising statement since there are many anecdotal stories where people have cancer or a heart issue, contract covid, and die, and are labeled as a coronavirus death rather than cancer or heart. An overcounting of covid deaths seems more plausible but the doctor can be taken at his word. Fauci communicates with media each day and many of his comments create controversy and confusion rather than clarification. Fauci says masks may be worn in the future during flu and virus periods of colder weather and may become a seasonal mainstay in society; nobody wants to hear that. The mouth diapers are getting old. After Fauci opines about wearing masks in the future, comedian Tyler Fisher posts a hilarious YouTube video imitating Fauci that immediately goes viral. Fisher jokes about wearing masks while in the shower.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/10/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The US reports a paltry 22.2K daily new cases for Sunday. That is fantastic. The only thing better would be zero. We hoped for a day or two of daily new cases in the 30K's and now we get a 2-handle. It is a Good Day, Sunshine, as the Beatles would sing. The United States has coronavirus on the run and is kicking it out of town. The 3-day MA for the daily new cases prints a lower low so the downward trend in the charts should continue for many more days. The US active cases chart is curling downwards and should begin dropping sharply to form the bell shape although it will have a dent in the top of the bell due to the wave four threat that has now dissipated. The US reports 241 deaths yesterday the lowest number going back to when the pandemic started over one year ago. That is great news, the best in a year, however, 241 families are without their loved one and will deal with that loss forevermore. The Sunday numbers are the lightest of the week so keep that in mind but the end of the pandemic is coming into sight for the United States. The next phase of the pandemic will likely focus on handling localized and regional outbreaks as the rest of the nation moves back to normalcy. Of course, there will be more drama as the Fall flu and covid season approaches around the Labor Day period (early September). It appears that herd immunity is ramping-up as about one-third of America has been stricken with covid (far higher than the current official numbers) and over one-third has been vaccinated. There is overlap in these two groups but the US is likely at a 60% to 70% protection level (pulling numbers out of the air) with both natural immunities and vaccinations and very near that 70% to 85% level desired (and cited by Dr Fauci) so it makes sense that cases are dropping at a noticeable rate. It will take a while for the public to shed the hermit mentality over the last year.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/10/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India reports 366K daily new cases finally a substantive move off the peak in daily cases above 400K. 3.7K Indians die yesterday. Indonesia is trying to stop the new outbreak by placing travel bans as the total deaths cross the 47K grim milestone. Two B1617 variant cases are identified in Indonesia. Malaysia also limits travel (they should have done this 2 or 3 weeks ago). The chronology has described the entire Southeast Asia virus spread from its conception in India. The virus spread east along the coast through troubled Burma (Myanmar) onto Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia and now on to Indonesia. Southeast Asia (India) is the epicenter of the global pandemic currently and this epicenter may migrate east. China is likely worried about COVID-19 threatening its southern and western borders. Pakistan and the other stan's remain in bad shape with virus running rampant. South America remains in trouble with nations such as Bolivia and Paraguay struggling at containing the virus.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/10/21, at 7:30 AM EST: The US test positivity rate drops to 9.7% which is more good news. It must drop below 5% to celebrate and preferably below 1% so the tracing and tracking program can work effectively and we can control coronavirus going forward. The positivity rate was about 18% from November through January. Thus, over the last 4 months, the US has dropped from a test rate of 1 in every 5 tests positive for China Flu down to 1 in 10 Americans testing positive. Let's keep it going. Recent polls are remaining consistent reporting that about 20% of Americans do not plan on getting vaccinated. Of this group, 80% say they will never take the shot. BioNTech announces plans to build a factory in Singapore to produce vaccine but this will take a couple-three years to set-up. The saber-rattling and bombastic rhetoric last week directed at big pharma performed its purpose, which was not to actually expect a pop-up plant to start producing vaccine in a third-world country overnight, but to simply keep applying pressure on the richer nations to make sure production of all vaccines is running at capacity while at the same time forcing pharma to commit to building plants in developing nations. BioNTech makes a move in this direction so good on them although Singapore was about as safe a selection that could be made in this context. A couple vaccine production plants in Africa and a couple in South America would greatly help the world in a future global pandemic.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 5/10/21, at 1:00 PM EST: The CDC says 9K Americans became infected with coronavirus despite being vaccinated. No vaccine is 100%. It's party time in Barcelona, Spain, land of the bullfights, art and beautiful Spanish ladies. The authorities break up a huge street party where a few thousand young folks gather celebrating the end of a coronavirus curfew. Hundreds also party in Madrid. Authorities break up the parties sending the drunken revelers, most without masks, home to sleep it off. Are the parties a superspreader event? Add 8 or 9 days and it will be seen in the daily cases data. Thus, Spain needs to watch the daily new cases very closely from 5/15/21 through 5/19/21. If the parties are creating an outbreak, it will show up in that window. If the daily cases remain steady in their current pattern, than the parties will be proven to have no impact and people should feel more comfortable with that behavior. In April in the States, in Texas, the Rangers played two baseball games over two consecutive evenings, with the stadium filled with nearly 40K people at each game. Most followed mask-wearing rules and social distancing if they could. There was worry that it would create a big outbreak but about 9 days later there was a little blip in daily cases for that area of Texas but in a couple days the data rolled over again. These experiments show that many of the draconian rules for the pandemic can be relaxed if the country is at adequate vaccination and natural immunity levels.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 5/10/21, at 5:00 PM EST: Big news. The FDA authorizes the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for use in 12 to 15 year old adolescents. The approval was expected over the last week. Parents now must decide if they want to have their child vaccinated. The approval will add several more million vaccinated souls toward the herd immunity goal. Americans that do not plan on getting vaccinated will likely not have their children vaccinated. 3.8 million children have been afflicted with COVID-19 about 14% of all the cases. There is growing friction between the vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Businesses are concerned that unvaccinated folks are throwing a wrench into the restart of the economy. Most unvaccinated people want left alone but the vaccine shaming will likely continue. The holy and noble vaccinated must educate the unclean, unwashed, unvaccinated heretics. The patriotic and holier-than-thou vaccinated view the unvaccinated as lepers; biblical days play out in modern times.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/11/21, at 2:30 AM EST: India sadly crosses above 250K total deaths from the China Flu. 3.9K Indians die yesterday. India reports 330K daily new cases which is a terrible number but at least it is not above the 400K peak and the cases are moving lower for the second day. The WHO awakes from slumber labeling India's B1617 virus strain as a 'variant of concern'. Thanks, WHO, you are now up to speed with what everyone else has been watching for a few months, now go back to sleep. India is the largest producer of vaccine in the world so the pandemic is hurting the globe in multiple ways. Developing nations are way behind in their vaccination programs due to a lack of supply. America needs to send vaccine overseas since it is starting to hit the vaccine wall (vaccine demand falls off sharply). Biden plans to send vaccine to countries in need but the process is slow-walked. Knowing how corrupt all politicians are, there may be ulterior motives for maintaining US vaccine stockpiles. Biden wants the young folks to become vaccinated, and the FDA authorizes the Pfizer shot for 12 to 15 year old children yesterday. This will add a few million more to the herd immunity basket. The wild card is the military since about one-half do not want the vaccine. The US military will not mandate the shot for soldiers since it is only approved for emergency use, but, as they push through the official approval, a mandated shot for military personnel will likely follow. From a nefarious angle, Biden may also be maintaining a vaccine stockpile because he may mandate the vaccine for all Americans in the weeks ahead. That would be a sad day and likely kick off civil war. The obsession with getting people vaccinated is at a sick level and the vaccine shaming is increasing daily. Let it go, jackasses. If people do not want the shot, so be it. Let them alone. If they get sick they will be treated. The medical folks and other talking heads need to quit with the control freak stuff. The country is falling apart already it does not need more fuel to send it south. The US is likely reaching herd immunity now with the combination of natural immunity and the vaccinations as evidenced by the ongoing drop in daily new cases, deaths and other statistics.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/11/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Malaysia reaches the 1,700 total deaths grim milestone. Bolivia, Paraguay and other South American nations continue suffering. Paraguay crosses the 7,200 deaths grim milestone. In the Seychelles, over 63% of the population is vaccinated, two-thirds of the people, but daily cases increase and infections rise. Medical officials are extremely worried since the virus may be overcoming the vaccinations. Japan remains a mess. Daily new cases are elevated with Sunday's cases at 7.8K matching the highest number ever. Maybe the Olympics will give honorable mention medals for those athletes that contract covid while they compete. The Olympics begin in July. Ontario, Canada, continues with draconian lockdown measures to tamp down the current outbreak. Canadian officials have become sicko's enforcing the lockdown measures on common folks. The doctors are controlling everyone's lives and dictate the path forward to the point that the Canucks say Ontario is under a 'doctatorship'. The tragic part of the Ontario situation is the government encouraging citizens to turn each other in if someone is violating the virus rules. That is a shame. It is communism.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/11/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 30K daily new cases for Monday. The news is good each day. 370 Americans die yesterday. Michigan is finally getting a handle on things with the active cases chart moving downward creating the bell shape verifying that the virus is on its way out. Michigan daily new cases are dropping so there is light at the end of the tunnel. Illinois was looking shaky the last few days but it has improved through the weekend. The US is in the best shape in a year. Washington state reports a spike in daily cases so keep a hairy eyeball on that Oregon and Washington area. Other states that are on the radar as potential problems are showing drops in daily cases so things look very good for America which is in huge contrast to the rest of the world.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/11/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The vaccine makers are punched in the face in early trading. NVAX, Novavax, stock collapses -12% adding to yesterday's -8.8% loss for a -21% crash in only 2 days. Novavax says its vaccine may not be ready until Q3 (July, August, September). MRNA, Moderna, plummets -4%. Curevac loses -3%. Even PFE, Pfizer, is not spared down -1% after the good news on the vaccine approval for children last evening. BNTX, BioNTech, drops -1.4% but after a big pop higher in price yesterday on happy earnings. The US stock market sold off yesterday and appears shaky this morning.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 5/11/21: Health officials provide testimony about the ongoing pandemic on Capitol Hill stirring-up a couple of controversies. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, a republican, typically criticizes Dr Fauci at these hearings and today is no different. Paul wants more information on the US involvement in funding virus research at foreign labs. Paul wants to know what Fauci's involvement was with the Wuhan Laboratory and he mentions the nonprofit organization EcoHealth Alliance. US funding was provided to EcoHelath that in turn provided funding to the Wuhan Lab. Paul uses the phrase 'gain of function research' which is a fancy way of describing the process of making a virus worse in the laboratory for research purposes. The senator wants to label Fauci as a proponent of gain of function research. Fauci denies that he supports that type of research. Fauci is defensive and bats down the questioning saying that the United States funds research in the majority of the labs around the world and there is nothing to see there. Information on this controversy has been available over the last year. The latest cobbling-together of stories is that the US provided $3.7 million in funding to the Wuhan Lab for virus testing when Fauci headed the NIH a few years ago. An investigation is needed but time will tell if it ever happens. Humanity does not need careless scientists (the Wuhan Lab was cited many times for safety and protocol violations) fooling around with deadly viruses. We see what happens and is happening in real-time with the deadly China Virus. Another controversy develops over the CDC's mask rules for people outside. Based on a grouping of 19 studies, the CDC has said that less than 10% of the transmissions of COVID-19 occur outside. Detractors ask is it closer to zero or closer to 10%? Studies are now showing that the rate of transmission outside is 0.1% a large order of magnitude lower. In fact, scientists are finding it difficult to identify cases that initiated outdoors. This is important since summer is here and kids want to play outside, and the wealthier families want to send their kids to camp, and adults want to attend concerts. Recent events in America such as baseball games and concerts are showing that the transmission of virus outside is not a big a problem as it is indoors. CDC Director Walensky, who is becoming a piñata for all grievances surrounding the pandemic, along with Fauci, that the media and virus naysayers slap at each day, repeats the less than 10% statistic for outside transmission but does not offer a change to the rules. The CDC, however, does plan to provide further clarifications. The CDC must revise its guidelines concerning behavior outdoors, otherwise it risks losing credibility. Maine republican Senator Susan Collins says the CDC is imposing unrealistic recommendations on the public and it is undermining their credibility. Data from the Cleveland Clinic shows negligible virus transmission among vaccinated people. Very simply, a mask is likely not needed outdoors but try to stay socially distant if possible. If you are talking face to face to someone (not knowing if they are vaccinated), or step inside, it would be wise to have a mask in your pocket for those situations, but if vaccinated people are around others that are vaccinated, there should be no reason anyone needs to wear a mask. It is a difficult subject to try and communicate the complexities of the virus and pandemic to the huddled masses, especially since knowledge about the virus is gained daily, but that's the job. Anyone rising to a position of power or authority quickly realizes that no matter what you do, someone will always be complaining. It is good to have rhinoceros hide for skin and maintain a calm demeanor when managing an organization or company or leading a large group of people.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 5/11/21: The Whitehouse agrees to a deal with Uber and Lyft to provide free rides to the vaccination sites. People can simply call up the app and cars will take you to the shot and return you home free of charge (and no, humorously, they can not make other stops like the grocery store or pharmacy). You have to give Biden credit for making it as easy as possible to become vaccinated. After about a month, whoever is not vaccinated, will likely never want vaccinated, and the impenetrable vaccine wall will be hit. Biden is likely pushing hard for the official approval of a vaccine instead of emergency approval so he can force the military troops, that are sitting on the fence about taking the shot, to roll up their khaki sleeves and take the prick. This would add millions of Americans towards the herd immunity goal. The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) reports 4K deaths and 100K adverse reactions from vaccines. The deaths, however, are not scientifically verified so there may be many reasons for those folks passing. As a side note, concerning the J&J vaccine, the CDC says women between 30 and 39 years old are the most at risk. 28 blood clot cases resulted from the vaccine with three deaths. So there are at least three deaths verified from the vaccines. VAERS reports that 3% of people will have lasting permanent effects from the vaccines. This is a higher number than expected or desired.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/12/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The US reports 35K daily new cases and 743 deaths. The numbers are a hair high but the downtrend continues and America has coronavirus on the run. The path forward is bright. Conversely, India reports 349K daily new cases which is down from over 400K but above 300K per day which began on 4/21/21 a long 21 days ago! One month of daily new cases above 300K per day is horrific and a human tragedy on an epic scale. China has seriously damaged the world with COVID-19. India deaths are 4.2K the deadliest day of the pandemic which is disheartening news because the daily new cases are trying to trail off lower. Deaths always lag the daily new cases and hospitalizations. Nepal reports over 9.3K daily new cases the highest ever with 225 deaths the deadliest day ever. It is sad since Nepal is a poor country. China sends a token shipment of aid to Nepal, a few ventilators and some PPE, but what else would be expected from filthy communists, especially the CCP that allegedly released coronavirus upon the world? Any amount of aid is appreciated but China's offering is miniscule. India's B1617 strain has been detected in 44 countries. WHO says there are three identifiable side strains from B1617 but not prevalent enough to receive a separate name. A doctor in one of the India regions last week says a triple mutant strain is occurring which was dubbed B1618. Deaths from covid in the UK have become negligible which is great news. The UK was in covid Hell in mid-January but four months later in fantastic shape. Daily cases are rising in Taiwan which is one of the few nations that have handled the pandemic successfully. The Taiwan Stock Exchange crashes -9% as the talk of a potential new outbreak, along with the global supply problem of computer chips and other electronics, smacks the great island nation hard.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/12/21, at 6:00 AM EST: Some Americans are complaining about brain fog about 2 to 3 weeks after taking the Moderna vaccine shot. People describe it as an absentmindedness, a fog of the brain, forgetfulness, scatter-brained, a difficulty to concentrate, and even dizziness occurs for some. The public is sharing information and if receiving the Moderna shot are asking each other, "Do you have vax fog?" The public is calling the condition 'vax fog' and 'covid fog'. The media releases a fear story about children developing serious health issues after being afflicted with COVID-19. The timing of the news is suspect since the FDA just approved the Pfizer vaccine for 12 to 15 year old children. Do you think the manipulative powers are planting the fear story to provide an extra push for parents to line their kids up for shots? You can decide for yourself.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 5/12/21, at 3:00 PM EST: US inflation data spikes the most in decades due to supply shortages and an economy slowly recovering. The US stock market mini-crashes with major indexes dropping from -2% to -4%.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 5/12/21, at 4:00 PM EST: The CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices follows the FDA advice and votes to approve the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for emergency use in 12-15 year old children. Inoculations will begin tomorrow. Web sites are already scheduling appointments expecting the approval. Pro-vaccine parents are promising their kids as a much ice cream as they can eat when they get the shot while vaccine hesitant folks are telling their kids to wait and see. CDC Director pushes back at the ongoing criticism on mask-wearing rules and repeats the mantra about "following science." In southwestern Pennsylvania, it is getting more common to see people out and about without wearing masks; they must be double-vaccinated, and feel safe, and are not concerned about the warning that they can still spread coronavirus. These mask-less folks have obviously stopped listening to the CDC guidance and this is occurring in many states especially the south. If people get vaccinated, they are expecting to be able to go mask-less, and even though they are told otherwise, some are ditching their masks anyway. Part of the vaccination hesitancy is because even after you are shot full of the witch's brew, you still have to wear a mask.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/13/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The UK's Com-COV study on combining different vaccines results in patients dealing with a higher incidence of reactions such as fatigue, chills, fevers, aches and pains and headaches. Patients are given a dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine followed by the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine or in reverse order for other participants. World citizens say thank you to the human guinea pigs. India daily new cases remain above 300K per day at 362K and deaths remain above 4K with 4.1K Indians dying yesterday.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/13/21, at 5:30 AM EST: The US reports 36K daily new cases. 841 Americans die yesterday. Florida passes a law prohibiting the use of vaccine passports.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/13/21, at 11:00 AM EST: Liberal comedian and talk show host Bill Maher tests positive for covid despite being vaccinated. Eight New York Yankees (American baseball team) players test positive for covid despite being vaccinated. Of these 8 breakthrough cases (the virus breaks through the vaccine wall), 7 are asymptomatic but one is ill. The team is tested regularly. There may be far more breakthrough infections occurring than anyone realizes but at the same time the reinfections are typically milder cases. Across the United States with well over 100 million Americans vaccinated, there are over 7K breakthrough cases; about 0.01%. About 500 of the 7,000 had to be hospitalized and about 90 died. Like all the covid death statistics, forensics will be required to determine if comorbidities and other issues play a role. These are small numbers but illustrate how the vaccines are not 100%.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 5/13/21, at 3:00 PM EST: Bombshell news from the CDC. Fully-vaccinated people no longer need to wear masks in public or private with a few caveats. Masks will still be required in planes, trains, buses, transportation terminals and prisons. The media pumps the news as a great milestone, and it is, but the CDC is probably following the public's lead rather than leading the public. The CDC says they are following the science, and they can cite a couple of recent studies that confirm little risk of transmission among vaccinated people, but the news is sudden and surprising. An intermediate step would have been expected but the relaxed mask guidelines may be used in part to encourage more Americans to become vaccinated. The CDC says the new guidelines are not trying to encourage vaccinations. Fauci says the opposite that the CDC guidelines will encourage vaccinations. The fly in the coronavirus ointment is knowing whether people are vaccinated or not. Since folks can go mask-less, how do you know what the vaccination status is of those around you? You won't. It will be honor system. Good luck wit dat, as they say in Brooklyn. Parents with young children are the most concerned since kids under 12 cannot be vaccinated and they may be circulating among mask-less adults that may or may not be vaccinated. It is good for the country to move on. You cannot spend your whole life hiding under the bed. President Biden speaks in the Rose Garden after the new CDC mask guidelines. Biden walks to the podium without a mask to dramatize the CDC decision. Everything is show business in politics. King Joey decrees, "The rule is now simple; get vaccinated or wear a mask until you do. The choice is yours." This statement is going to go over like a lead balloon to unvaccinated people. Many will say who the Hell is this king telling us to kneel and receive a shot before we are permitted to live life. Yes, here comes the backlash. Twitter and social media is immediately fired-up about the statement. If the CDC and Whitehouse want people to lock in their attitudes about not wanting the vaccine, keep making stupid edict-type statements that will be vehemently opposed. Even if people may have been leaning towards taking a shot, they may jump back into the anti-vaccination camp after being told to kneel and kiss the king's ring. This is the way a lot of people think. Meanwhile, the vaccinated are happy with the new maskless guidelines. Like the No-Bra Movement in the 1960's, when the ladies removed their female support garments retaliating against society's feminine standards, Americans are stripping masks from their ugly mugs, twirling them around an extended index finger, and letting them fling-off and fly off into the trash basket. After one year, people will feel naked without a mask. Keystone joyously removed his mask celebrating the event, but a passer-by quickly told him to put it back on for fear of scaring the children.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 5/13/21: New York Mayor de Blasio takes the jackass coronavirus behavior to a whole new level. De Blasio keeps offering incentives to get New Yorker's vaccinated and recruits the Shake Shack hamburger chain. During de Blasio's video, he eats a hamburger on camera, with mouth open, while telling people they can do this if they get vaccinated. What a disgusting display of human behavior. It's creepy and sick. Get a shot and we will give you a greasy hamburger and fries (although folks say the expensive burgers are great). People will purposely not get vaccinated after viewing such a jackass video. Politicians are caught up in themselves nowadays, the notoriety and fame, and do very little to improve the lives of the people they represent. The politico's desire camera time which feeds egos. De Blasio tells you to get a shot for a free hamburger and fries but he receives the free meal for simply being a moron.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/14/21, at 1:30 AM EST: The UK is extremely concerned about escalating cases of India's B1617 variant. Prime Minister Johnson is nervous and says all tools are on the table to stop another outbreak. The UK is speeding-up the second shots for those over 50 years old and for the entire population. Just when it seems like you are out of the woods, COVID-19 pulls you back into the darkness. The UK worries about a potential B1617 spread may derail the planned opening of the UK economy. India is above 262K total deaths and reports 4K deaths yesterday. India exceeds 24 million total cases and 343K daily new cases yesterday. Good news. India's active cases curve finally tops out and flattens. It will be fantastic to see the curve drop to form the bell shape and begin the long road to recovery. The worst may be over for India but there are still many tragic days ahead. Oh-no. The fears about a new outbreak in South Africa increase daily. South Africa reports 3.2K daily new cases yesterday the highest since early February. It does not look good. The nation crosses the 55K total deaths grim milestone. Bear down and try to nip the trouble in the bud, South Africa, because there is serious trouble afoot. Singapore, a bright spot in handling the pandemic, is imposing new restrictions due to an increase in cases (but small numbers).
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/14/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The USA is at 598,540 deaths approaching the 600K level. The Johns-Hopkins data is lagging behind as if they want to avoid having to cross the deadly milestone. 40K daily new cases occur in America yesterday and the 4-handle is not a welcome sight. The data tends to be most robust Wednesday to Friday so there is no reason to panic. Today's data is key since Friday is typically the highest numbers of the week and will be known early tomorrow morning. If the US can weather this tiny lift in cases the last couple days, the weekend data should drop significantly and maintain the downward trajectory desired. The 7-day MA trend line continues sloping down and moving lower which is a great sight. Ditto the 3-day MA that will be coming up for another peak over the next couple-three days so watch it to make sure it prints a lower high. 762 Americans die yesterday so COVID-19 remains a daily slap in the face.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/14/21, at 11:00 AM EST: The confusion over the new CDC mask guidelines continues. Most everyone is a drama queen and prima donna these days so the new mask rules were guaranteed to bring on theatrics and political showmanship. Some businesses plan to continue the mask rules while others, and some states, throw caution to the wind and shun the masks. Fully-vaccinated people do not have to wear a mask outdoors or inside but unvaccinated people should wear a mask indoors. The vaccine shaming and vaccine passport topics are front and center. The vaccinated people are unhappy with the folks that do not plan to take the shot. Walmart, Target, Home Depot and many other stores continue requiring masks in the stores. Soon there will be checkpoints with a military man asking for 'your papers, please'. Walmart reverses that decision and says vaccinated shoppers and workers do not have to wear a mask. Everyone is making it up as they go along including the CDC, NIH, WHO, FDA. Whitehouse and US government. Other stores that are relaxing their mask rules include Sam's Club (which is the sister company of Walmart; they are essentially one in the same), Trader Joe's and Costco. The mask drama will play out through the weekend. Since daily cases trend lower, and the mask guidelines are relaxed, the adult babies, which is the majority of American society, should calm down and remain happy about the direction forward. The unvaccinated people have bullseyes on their backs but most will not care. The obsession with having everyone vaccinated is getting out of hand. Be careful with pushing, hounding and cajoling people all day long about getting vaccinated since some will begin pushing, and punching, back. Accept the fact that about 20% of the population will not get vaccinated. Sleepy Joey, Walensky and Fauci should stop beating their trio of heads against the vaccine wall because they will discover that when they stop, their headache goes away.
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