By K E Stone (Keystone)
Wheee! Whoopie! It is party time! It is a par-tay weekend!
The CDC relaxes mask guidelines so Americans immediately rip the mouth diapers from their
ugly mugs. The masks are tossed into the air like graduation caps or Mary TylerMoore’s beret. Whoopie! As Dr Martin Luther King Jr said, “Free at last, freeat last, thank God Almighty we are free at last.” But wait a minute. In the
middle of the festivities, people begin wondering who is vaccinated and who is
not.
The new CDC guidance says vaccinated people can go maskless
indoors and outdoors while the unvaccinated should continue to wear masks. CDC
Director Walensky proclaims, “We have all longed for this moment. If you are
fully vaccinated (2 shots of the mRNA vaccine and it is 2 weeks after the last
shot or the 1-shot J&J vaccine after 2 weeks), you can start doing the
things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic.”
The new maskless guidelines rely on the honor system, or
honor code. Pause for laughter. The honor system went bye-bye with the penny
loafer. Some people do not care and will walk around maskless even if
unvaccinated. It is simply the way much of society is nowadays surviving in the
crony capitalism system.
The new CDC guidelines are a surprise which creates the
initial angst. A week ago, the fancy, colored mask guidance chart was released
that only a PhD would understand. Only days later, folks are told to shun the
masks and party on, Garth. On CNN media, Dr Leana Wen says, “It (the new mask
guidelines) feels like we went from zero to 100 overnight.” Surgeon General Jerome Adams, that held court under republican President Trump, says the reversal by the CDC gave him "whiplash."
The entire news cycle since 3 PM EST Thursday afternoon is
dominated by the bombshell CDC news about relaxing mask guidelines and its
impact on businesses and vaccinations.
Studies show that vaccinated people are not acting as
carriers. However, unvaccinated people may be maskless and around younger
children in grocery stores or malls placing both at risk. In comes the honor
system where unvaccinated people are supposed to continue to wear masks. Most
will but some will not.
The unvaccinated now become the lepers of modern society,
donning the mouth diaper of shame for all to see and ridicule. America splits
further into a two-tiered society, the have’s and have not’s, the rich and the
poor, the clean nobility and the great unwashed, the vaccinated and
unvaccinated.
There are concerns about how schools and universities will
function under the new mask rules. After the CDC announcement, states and
businesses took the bull by the horns. Trader Joe’s, Wynn Resorts and Walmart
are shunning mask requirements. Walmart initially announced plans to maintain
masks but then flip-flopped and is now ditching masks.
Target is maintaining its mask policy. Also, Home Depot,
CVS, Kroger, Macy’s and Starbucks. These establishments are taking a wait and
see approach. They should call Starbucks Tenbucks because every time you walk
in there you spend at least $10 bucks.
Some states such as North Carolina, New York, New Jersey,
Virginia and Massachusetts are taking a wait and see approach maintaining mask
requirements indoors. Other republican and democrat states are throwing caution
to the wind bringing on the summertime bar parties including Minnesota, Nevada,
Oregon, Connecticut, Kentucky and Illinois. Pennsylvania is also following
along in a week or so.
Obviously, there is concern that the virus will spread due
to the new maskless protocols but many events and holidays over the last three
months did not result in substantive increases in cases. The virus is burning
itself out at the same time vaccinations are helping and many more millions of
Americans have been sick with covid than thought (now having antibodies). The
warm weather where folks spend more time outdoors and socially distant paint an
even rosier picture ahead for America.
President Biden wants all of America to become vaccinated by
hook or by crook. The timing of the CDC mask guideline changes and the
Whitehouse push to vaccinate more people is suspect but both sides say they did
not discuss the changes ahead of time. Ahem. Cough.
CDC Director Walensky says a couple of new studies, that
just fell into her lap, provide the science that necessitates the changes in
mask rules. The response provides a loin cloth, er two loin cloths, of cover for the doctor. It
would have been better for the CDC to equate the relaxed mask rules to lower
test positivity rates, or perhaps to certain levels of daily cases, so the
timing of the new mask guidelines remains suspect. Biden may have whispered,
perhaps in a creepy way, with hot breath, into Walensky’s ear, “Let’s go
maskless.”
Biden is using the carrot and stick approach. The carrot is
the incentive to overcome vaccine hesitancy or skepticism, as they call it in
Europe. The carrot is that if you become vaccinated, you can shun your mask and
return to normal life and participate in events and concerts. The stick is
negative reinforcement and it comes in the form of ultimatums and vaccine
passports. Get the shot or you will never dine out, go to a concert or ever
have fun again.
Biden makes a big mistake on Thursday night celebrating the
CDC in their coordinated, ahem, announcement that vaccinated people no longer
require masks. Paraphrasing, Sleepy Joe said there are two types of Americans, ‘those
that are vaccinated and those that will be’. If you ever want to guarantee
humans to not do something, you give them an ultimatum. People do not respond
well to this type of rhetoric.
The Whitehouse and medical officials are flummoxed that
about 20% of Americans are choosing not to be vaccinated. Comically, the
talking heads and pundits act as if there is some type of mental defect in
people’s heads and they are too stupid to realize that they need to be
vaccinated and accept the serum that is only approved for emergency use. How
can they be so stupid to not want that?!
Some people do not care while others have health or
religious reasons for not taking the shot. That 20% likely will not change. The
Whitehouse and medical people need to stop banging their heads against the
vaccine wall because once they stop, they will realize their heads do not hurt
anymore.
Dollars to doughnuts that the next push by the Biden
administration will be to obtain official approval for at least one of the
vaccines. This will take away a talking point from the anti-vaccination crowd
complaining that the shot is only approved for emergency use. Once the official
use declaration is jammed through the system, Biden will order all the military
personnel to roll up their sleeves adding many more millions to the vaccinated
ranks. This will also place Sleepy Joe closer to the 70% vaccination goal he
promised by 7/4/21.
After the military, the 2 to 11 year olds will be targeted
for shots. Today’s data shows that 3 million kids between 12 and 15 years old
have already been vaccinated after the emergency approval was granted only a
few days ago.
Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are going to want a payday for
all this pandemic angst and that comes in the form of future vaccine shots;
probably one each Fall for every year forward for all the vaccinated folks. Big
pharma wants to make use of the new fancy mRNA technology and line their
pockets at the same time. To make the maximum amount of future profit the
pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies need the maximum amount of people to
roll up their sleeves now. The push for vaccinations by the Whitehouse is
intended to help the country recover from the China Flu but at the same time,
big pharma is happy to see all the future customers running to their needles.
Each jab is future money.
The discussions about how to know someone is vaccinated or
not are increasing dramatically after the new CDC mask guidelines. Vaccine
passports create a two-tiered society. America is already at a massive divide
between rich and poor, the widest gap in 50 years, and now it grows even bigger.
Speaking generally, the wealthy and informed are the vaccinated while the poor
and less-educated are the unvaccinated.
15% of Americans are luddites (a ten-dollar college word
that means a person opposed to technology). Most Americans erroneously think
that everyone has either a smartphone or computer or both. 15% do not, 1 in 8
people, and most do not want anything to do with technology. A land line phone
and the simple life is their chosen path. 15% is 50 million people. This is
important because any vaccine passport that may be an app on a smartphone is
useless to many other people. If a physical card is provided for proof of
vaccination to gain entry to events or for travel, that can be counterfeited.
Proof of vaccination will not be easy. The vaccine passport issue will become
more heated each day.
Employees at restaurants and other service industries such
as grocery stores, are concerned that any ole unvaccinated yahoo will be
walking through the place maskless. That likely will happen. CDC Director
Walensky says people must take “personal responsibility.” This is true but many
Americans are not in a responsible mood after being screwed by the crony
capitalism system for decades.
Employees do not want to play the role of ‘vaccine police’.
Some people would become angry if asked about their vaccination or test status.
What if vaccinated people forget to bring their card? Do you still permit them
into the establishment? Some unvaccinated folks will lie and say they forgot
their card. If people are turned away, that will hurt the business. What about
people that contracted covid and have natural antibodies? They are protected
but will not have their ‘vaccination papers’. Checking vaccination status is a
logistical, organizational and enforcement nightmare. The lawyers are
salivating. Ambulance chasers will become mask discrimination experts.
People are trained well after 15 months of coronavirus and
many will choose to continue mask use even vaccinated folks. Big events,
baseball games and holiday parties this year have not led to any significant
raise in cases. Ditto the trouble at the southern border with Mexico. You would
think there would have been a big increase in cases and there is not. And with
the warmer weather here in the northern hemisphere, it is most likely that the
happy path scenario will continue for America.
Australia, in the southern hemisphere, heads into wintertime
which will be a test to see if the virus spreads during the cold weather, with
everyone indoors, or not. Australia always served as a barometer for the flu
season since what happens down under usually appears in America’s Fall and
winter season six months hence.
The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) data shows that young
people from 18 to 49 years old are the biggest group that are against taking
vaccines. This also holds true for the whites in the 50 to 64-year range. The
data makes sense since many white republican males are against vaccinations and
that covers the whites from 18 to 64 years old. It is interesting, however,
that both young Blacks and Hispanics (Latino; LatintX) are averse to receiving
the shot.
It is all in the data. If the Whitehouse wants to achieve
maximum shots in arms (vaccinations), the focus must be on white males and
young Blacks and Latinos. All the marketing efforts should focus on those
demographics.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above with wave four defeated.
Wave 3 was the killer that ramped higher through the presidential election last
November and into December and January. Wave 4 is beaten down as herd immunity
begins kicking-in due to about one-third of the country already contracting
covid and having natural antibodies and over one-third of the country
vaccinated.
The USA reports 26K daily new cases for yesterday and the
2-handles are a welcome sight. Maybe today’s data will be a 1-handle? Both the
3 and 7-day MA’s (moving averages which are smoother lines that identify trend)
are sloping lower which is great.
Let’s take the purple square and expand that view for a
closer look at what is going on with the daily new cases. That daily cases expanded
chart shows the Wave 4 channel with the increase in daily cases. Wave 3 ended
and cases drop lower but they started to slide sideways and the 3-day MA, which
is the blue squiggly line in the chart, prints a higher high (red star). This is
when the warning went out that a wave 4 is brewing.
The 3-day MA then drops lower to the blue star and lo and
behold, unfortunately, a higher low is printed. This is big trouble since the
3-day MA now prints a higher high and higher low (the trend is changing). Then the
3-day MA travels higher again printing another higher high. The rout was on and
wave 4 was underway.
Conversely, when wave 4 looked dire, and even CDC Director
Walensky made the “impending doom” comment, the vaccination and natural
antibody herd immunity begins kicking in to roll that wave 4 over to the
downside. The 3-day MA comes up to the green star and prints a lower high so
you know that a trend change may be afoot. The 3-day MA then moves lower and
places a lower low (purple star) then comes up for a lower high. Joy and
happiness is locked in since a downtrend now dominates and the pattern of lower
lows and lower highs for the 3-day MA continues through today. The sun is out
the sky is blue and dogs and cats are living together.
The US joy continues as long as the lower lows and lower
highs continue. Use this exercise going forward to gauge what happens after the
new mask guidelines are in effect. If people are concerned about a new spread,
simply watch the 3-day MA going forward and use the analysis above to tell you
if America is on the joyful path, or, if things turn ugly again and the 3-day
moving average rises. We can see Paradise by the Dashboard Light but will weget around the bases to home plate?
The US daily active cases chart is shown above. The current
blue path is in progress which will form the bell curve and say goodbye to
covid. The bell shape has a dent in top due to the wave 4 scare. If the
variants get out of hand, the red path may occur but it does not appear likely
at this juncture. The US is heading in a good direction but as explained below
in the state data, there are areas that must remain vigilant.
The Michigan active cases chart is shown above. The curve
rolls over to the downside making for happy Michiganders. The bell shape
verifies that the virus is being defeated. The Michigan charts show textbook
bell curves. Hopefully, two bells are enough for our friends up north.
India’s active cases chart is shown above. India remains the
global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic but things are improving
incrementally. India’s active cases chart has peaked, flattened, and rolled
over. It must keep coming down to create the bell shape to provide India a sigh
of relief. Let’s hope for more good news with India this week. Daily new cases
are in the 300K’s still yet so a move below 300K would be a great development
even though the number is terribly high. The key is to get that active cases
chart to continue lower so India can see light at the end of the tunnel.
Japan’s active cases chart is shown above. The projected
top, based on the Keystone Model, is this week. It would be great to see
Japan’s active cases curve flatten and roll over this week because that will
create confidence in forging ahead with the Olympics in late July. This week is
critical since the model says it is time to roll the active cases chart over.
Japan better deliver. Over the next couple weeks, the pandemic, and Japanese
attitudes, should improve for the great island nation.
For the United States, the Institute for Health Metrics andEvaluation (IHME) forecasts between 930K and 980K deaths by 9/1/21. These
numbers are an order of magnitude higher than expected. The IHME is modeling in final
expectations and the numbers are that high. Current IHME death numbers for the
US are about 580K deaths but at the same time the IHME projects that about 920K
deaths is todays actual number. Perhaps after a few months or couple years, and
the smoke clears, and the bodies are all counted, the high projections will
play out. Dividing 920 by 580 is a 1.6 ratio so the IHME chart is saying the actual
deaths due to covid are about 1.6 times higher than the current official
numbers.
The Worldometer data is just about to turn 600K American
deaths a grim milestone. The
Johns-Hopkins data is at 586K deaths which have been lagging in recent weeks.
Prior articles have highlighted the cozy interaction of groups such as the CDC
and Johns-Hopkins with the Whitehouse so perhaps the data manipulators may be
trying to hold back the inevitable 600K dead body count as long as possible.
The democrat operatives may find a way to bury the sad milestone with a happy news
event.
Former President Trump has 400K dead bodies on his hands and
President Biden, after only four months in office, has 200K dead bodies on his
hands. It does not take long for the dead to add up in a once in a century
pandemic. During the Bubonic Plague, the death carts would be pulled through
town with the cryer announcing, “Bring out your dead, bring out your dead.”
US hospitalizations are in great shape, as per the COVIDData Tacker, continuing to move lower across all charts including the new hospital
admissions.
The US daily vaccination rate, as per the 7-day MA, drops to1.8 million doses per day. One single day back in April delivered 4.3 million
doses and the 7-day MA peaked at 3.3 million doses per day in April. The US is
vaccinating at only one-half the pace of last month.
President Biden decreed a goal of 70% of Americans
vaccinated with at least one dose by Independence Day, 7/4/21. As per the COVID
Data Tracker, 122 million Americans are fully vaccinated which is 37% of the
country almost 2 out of every 5 people. 156 million Americans have been shot
with at least one dose which is 47.1%. The 70% goal is 231 million Americans
(0.7 x 330 million population) and there are 49 days until July 4th.
If 156 million are vaccinated, and 231 million are needed,
that is a difference of 75 million people to reach the president’s 70% goal. If
there are 49 days to reach that goal, a vaccination rate of 1.5 million doses
per day is needed over the next month or so. It is doable but Biden is perhaps
starting to pucker his cheeks wondering if the goal will be missed.
Looking at the simple math another way, at the current 1.8
million doses per day rate, and 49 more days, actually 50 with today, is 90
million people which would give Biden a total of 246 million vaccinated with at
least one shot and victory. The Whitehouse needs that vaccination rate chart to
start moving sideways pronto and stop falling and it must remain above 1.5
million doses per day.
Vaccination numbers were high when people flocked to the big
drive-through sites but now it is going to be a battle of onesies and twosies.
The low-hanging vaccination enthusiasts’ fruit has been plucked from the covid
tree.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 33.7 million. India is at nearly 25 million. The order of
nations has not changed over the last month or two. The third highest total
cases are Brazil at 16 million cases and then France at 5.8 million and Turkey
at 5.1 million total coronavirus cases.
Coronavirus has infected 164 million people worldwide. 3.4
million have died. Fortunately, 142 million global citizens have recovered from
the China Flu. 87% (142/164) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame a 1 percentage-point improvement over the
last couple weeks. The numbers have steadily improved in recent weeks.
Worldwide, 2.1% (3.4/164) of the people that are infected
with covid die. This number has sat at 2.1%-2.2% for many weeks. 1 in every 48
people that are infected with COVID-19 around the world, will die, and this
number is relatively steady. Generally speaking, for the world, the mortality
rate from covid is at an impasse and cannot be driven lower.
2.1% (164/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 50 people on earth.
In the United States, 33.7 million people are infected with
covid. Nearly 600K Americans are dead. 27.1 million Americans have recovered
from covid. This equates to 80% (27.1/33.7) of US citizens recovering after
becoming infected with COVID-19. The number increases by 2 percentage-points
after being flat for a few weeks.
4 out of every 5 Americans that become sick with covid will
recover without lingering effects. The US recovery percentage is worse than the
global recovery percentage because we are fat bastards that eat cake, ice
cream, doughnuts, cookies, hotdogs and potato chips living an obese lifestyle. Gluten is
embraced like a cozy warm blanket. The fat shaming can be stacked on top of the
vaccine shaming on top of the mask shaming.
In the US, 1.8% (600/33700) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. This number remains sticky week after week but the vaccines are supposed
to reduce deaths. It is amazing how this number will not budge month after
month. It will be a big deal when it does. Alas, another article and it still
does not budge.
The 1.8% equates to 1 in every 56 US citizens that are
infected with coronavirus dying. Interestingly, the 1.8% death rate is
stone-cold steady for months in America where the vaccine program is hitting
its stride. The death rate climbs to 2.0% globally over the last 2 weeks where
the vaccination programs have dramatically slowed.
10.2% (33.7/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid. This percentage keeps moving higher
albeit at small increments. 1 in every 10 Americans have been stricken with
coronavirus. The minority communities are impacted disproportionately. The CDC
says as many as 100 million Americans may have been exposed to covid. These
natural immunities are helping, along with vaccinations, to kick in the herd
immunity that stops wave 4 and paints a rosy picture ahead. The 100 million
number equates to 1 in 3 Americans being stricken with covid (most are
asymptomatic) which is helping with the herd immunity goal going forward.
The medical folks and talking heads all got the memo to not
talk about herd immunity. For a year, herd immunity was the ultimate goal and
we get there when 70% to 85% (Fauci-approved numbers) of the population is
either vaccinated or has natural immunities. A month ago, Sleepy Joe Biden
changed the rules and said herd immunity can only be reached when 70% of the
people are vaccinated. The natural immunity people were pushed to the side and
even now are told to get the shot like everyone else. The rules changed.
When the Whitehouse was confronted with the confusion, no
one wanted to talk about herd immunity anymore and it was disassociated with
Biden’s 70% comment. Are you following? Herd immunity is now mentioned as some
quant old idea that sits on a rocking chair and is no longer applicable. It is
no wonder that the American people do not pay attention to any of the rules and
edicts coming down from on high. It is a confusing pile of slop sometimes and
now the whole herd immunity concept that was very easy to understand, is
another confusing pile of crap.
The Biden administration does not want you to talk about
herd immunity since it highlights natural antibodies built up by those already
exposed. The Whitehouse wants you to be vaccinated regardless of whether you
have contracted coronavirus or not but that question and discussion should
occur between you and your doctor. If you ‘follow the science’ for over a year,
natural antibodies are important now they are cast to the trash like
yesterday’s half eaten tuna sandwich.
Everyone likes to say ‘follow the science’ when they can
wedge it into their current narrative they are pimping. It is like politicians
that all operate off alternate sets of facts to bolster their narratives. It is
fascinating to watch crony capitalism in its final throes and at the same time
a multi-year voyage forward to something new begins.
The United States has 21% (33.7/164) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 5 people that become infected with covid on planet earth are
Americans. The US vaccination program is making a difference. This percentage
was 22% two weeks ago.
The US accounts for 17.7% (600/3389) of the China Flu deaths
in the world down a half percentage point over the last two weeks and down by more
than 1.5 percentage-points over the last 6 weeks. 1 in 6 people that die from
COVID-19 around the world are Americans. Two weeks ago, it was 1 in 5. The
numbers are going in the right direction for the US but that means
proportionally more people are dying elsewhere, like India, Nepal, Cambodia,
Thailand, Vietnam, Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Argentina, etc...
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart curves will flatten-out and roll-over lower. This chart behavior
represents the maximum stress and strain on the medical system and healthcare
workers. Once the bell curve forms with cases dropping dramatically, the virus
will be defeated.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For authoritarian and
communist nations where the populations must do what they are told or they
receive a bullet in their heads, and for smaller nations, and many Asian
nations where citizens follow government rules without questioning authority, the
active cases curve will peak, on average, 11 days after the peak in new cases.
China, Singapore, Japan and South Korea are in this group.
Also New Zealand and Australia since the populations are scattered across the countryside.
Several Middle East nations are under authoritarian rule and the peaks in the
new cases are quickly followed by the peak in the active cases chart. However,
several of these nations are dealing with nasty new outbreaks and waves so no
country is ever safe from the virus until it is eradicated everywhere, or burns
itself out.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases (it takes 17 days longer, about 2
weeks longer, for a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or
authoritarian state).
During the last three months, the 11 and 28-day timeframes
compress slightly since more is known about handling coronavirus. Thus, a
couple days can be shaved off the current target dates. The Keystone Model will
not change since it needs to be consistent the whole way through the pandemic
in its approach.
The Keystone Model has a great track record over the last
year in predicting when the active cases curve flattens and the bell shape
begins to appear to ring-in the end to the pandemic. Healthcare workers cannot
catch a break until the active cases curve flattens and rolls-over forming the
bell shape. That is when the patient load substantially declines. The Michigan
chart above shows textbook bell shapes.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily identified by the
bar charts provided by Worldometer and Johns-Hopkins. You see these daily new
cases bar charts on television news channels. The bar charts typically show the
7-day moving average (MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that helps you
identify the trend of the data.
The Keystone Model considers any subsequent high number of
daily cases occurring after the peak high to be the new peak high day, if it is
within 8% of the peak high on the bar chart. Is that clear as mud? If the daily
new cases are within 8% of the peak high, that day becomes the peak new case
date from which the 11 or 28-day period begins. This is why the daily new case
peak dates in the lists below may be a few days after the peak high that you
see in the bar chart.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes, actually a dozen days this time, and more data and
information become available to push the China Flu story forward. Also,
Keystone is still shaken up from his first experience of censorship so a day of
contemplating while sitting on a lawn chair, was justified.
Google censored and deleted Coronavirus Chronology Article
41 from the blog without explanation. This drama has been occurring over the
last few days. As all of the dedicated readers of the Coronavirus Chronology around
the world know, including all the healthcare professionals and doctors, Keystone
writes with a satirical and cynical bent, sometimes the biting brutal honesty
is too much to handle for some, and the comments directed at incompetence officials
ruffles some feathers, but so be it. They will get over it.
The information in the Coronavirus Chronology articles is
vital to understanding the progress of the pandemic and knowing where the
hotspots exist. The chronology serves as a historical document that will be
referenced for decades to come by those that want to experience the entire pandemic
in real-time. The Keystone Model helps countries and states identify when their
troubles will peak, like Japan right now, and warns when new waves are
beginning, like South Africa right now. Keystone was first to warn, and
explain, how a wave 4 had started in the United States.
If Google wants to censor and delete these vital articles
that are relied upon by hundreds of thousands of people each month, including
healthcare workers and research scientists, fine, it does not stop anything.
The Coronavirus Chronology will be published in the future by Amazon and
distributed internationally. If any of the writing offends any of you, get over
it. Toughen yourself if you have tissue paper thin skin; it will improve your
life. Be like Stuart Smalley and perform a daily affirmation. Look yourself in
the mirror and tell yourself, “I refuse to be an adult baby.”
This is Article 42 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides
real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists,
market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, researchers, public officials,
news organizations, traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19
pandemic both domestically (USA) and internationally. This forty-second article
is published on Sunday, 5/16/21.
The coronavirus series of articles are the only real-time
source of information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic
during 2020 and 2021. Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time. Feel the wind in your hair as the pandemic rages forward. Much of it
is not pretty because it is real. Life, and death, are real.
All 42 articles are archived on The Keystone Speculator blog
(although the Google censorship remains a mystery going forward). The articles
will be published as a complete set in the future via Amazon called the
Coronavirus Chronology. The articles are a pandemic bible. The COVID-19
pandemic information and daily zeitgeist is recorded in real-time which is
priceless for those studying the pandemic in future months, years and decades. You
will understand the nuances of the pandemic. The last couple articles are
linked below if you want to review or come up to speed with the COVID-19 saga
over the last few weeks. If a link does not work, the Coronavirus Chronology
may be a victim of cancel culture and more censorship.
The fortieth article is the Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Chronology Article 40 Published 4/24/21; US 4th Wave Petering Out; 585K
AMERICANS DEAD; 3.1 MILLION GLOBAL DEATHS FROM CHINA FLU; J&J Vaccine
Reapproved; US Vaccination Rate Drops Below 3 Million Doses Per Day; US Hits
Vaccine Wall as Supply Exceeds Demand; US Gaining on Herd Immunity Goal;
Variants Wreaking Havoc Around the Globe; India Pandemic Out of Control; US
States that Require Close Monitoring Include Michigan, Illinois, Maine, New
Hampshire, the Carolina’s, Louisiana, Oregon, Washington and Alaska; US and
World Sending Aid to India as the Funeral Pyres Burn 24/7; Global Coronavirus
Cases Top 150 Million; Brazil Deaths Exceed 400K; 100 Million Americans Fully
Vaccinated; INDIA REPORTS OVER 400K NEW INFECITONS PER DAY!
The forty-first article is the Coronavirus (COVID-19)Chronology Article 41 Published 5/4/21; US 4th Wave in Rearview Mirror; Americais Defeating Coronavirus; US Reports Least Daily New Cases Since Last Summer;US Total China Flu Cases Exceed 33 Million with Over 591K Deaths; USVaccination Rate Drops Below 2.4 Million Doses Per Day; Worst US States IncludeMississippi, Wyoming, Missouri, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, New Mexico,Hawaii, Louisiana, the Carolina’s, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Maine; HerdImmunity Math Explained Simply; Global Total COVID-19 Cases Exceed 154 Millionwith Over 3.2 Million Deaths; World Mourns India Tragedy; India Exceeds 20Million Total Infections Only 2nd to US; Worst Global Covid Hot Zones IncludeEgypt, Japan, Netherlands, Cambodia, Laos, India, Bhutan, Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Honduras, South Korea and Pakistan; Vaccine Shaming;America’s Vaccination Rate Slips to 2 Million Doses Per Day; US Reports LeastDaily Deaths in a Year; FDA Authorizes Emergency Approval for Pfizer/BioNTechVaccine for 12-15 Year Olds; CDC Relaxes Mask Guidelines (THIS ARTICLE WASSENSORED AND DELETED OFF THE INTERNET BY GOOGLE AND THE BLOGGER PLATFORM (ANDLIKELY THE US GOVERNMENT; WHITEHOUSE))
The Worldometer web site tracks the coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Tracking Project is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other nicely with the
Worldometer data typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins and CDC data by a few days.
The worst countries with rising or flat daily cases or
active cases charts are highlighted below. The peaks in daily new cases are
shown and the projected peaks for active cases are based on the Keystone Model.
The peak and flattening of the active cases curve represents the maximum stress
on healthcare workers. The pandemic is not under control until the active cases
curve flattens and rolls over forming the bell shape.
The pandemic is smacking the nations at the bottom of the
list the hardest since they are reporting the largest spikes in daily new cases
occurring in real-time. Their active cases charts will take the most time to
roll over.
Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Singapore are
the best examples on handling the pandemic properly. Japan and South Korea have
excellent testing programs but are struggling to regain control of the
pandemic. Ditto Singapore which is now showing an increase in cases, albeit
small, like Taiwan.
The following nations are listed from bad to worse with
ongoing coronavirus outbreak waves in progress;
Peru (Fourth Wave) (data is jumpy
and scattershot)
4/15/21 New Case Peak Date
4/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart spikes higher)
Ecuador (Continuous Wave)
4/23/21 New Case Peak Date (record
cases)
5/4/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve continues higher)
South Korea (Fourth Wave)
4/28/21 New Case Peak Date
5/9/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (trying to peak and flatten)
Honduras (Continuous Wave)
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever)
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Laos (Fourth Wave)
5/2/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever over last week)
5/13/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Netherlands
(Fifth Wave) (limited data hampers analysis)
5/3/21
New Case Peak Date (highest new cases of fifth wave over the last week)
5/14/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days) (curve flattens trying to
roll over)
Cambodia (Fifth Wave)
5/4/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases ever)
5/15/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Bhutan (Fourth Wave)
5/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/18/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
India (Second Wave)
5/8/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
new cases ever over last few days)
5/19/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (chart is flattening and rolling over)
Japan (Fourth Wave)
5/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Uzbekistan (Fourth Wave)
5/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of fourth wave)
5/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Costa Rica (Fourth Wave)
5/9/21 New Case Peak Date (highest
cases of fourth wave)
5/20/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Paraguay (Fourth Wave)
5/12/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest new cases ever)
5/23/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Denmark (Fifth Wave) (data is choppy
and erratic which hampers analysis)
5/13/21 New Case Peak Date
5/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Thailand (Fourth Wave)
5/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever; huge spike higher)
5/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Nepal (Fourth Wave)
5/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases ever; huge spike higher)
5/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Malaysia (Fourth Wave)
5/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
5/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Seychelles (Fifth Wave)
5/13/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
5/24/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Egypt (Third Wave)
5/14/21 New Case Peak Date
6/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
Argentina (Third Wave)
5/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/25/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Colombia (Third Wave)
5/15/21 New Case Peak Date
5/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Bolivia (Third Wave)
5/15/21 New Case Peak Date
5/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
South Africa (Third Wave)
5/15/21 New Case Peak Date
5/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Vietnam (Fourth Wave)
5/15/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest daily cases ever; huge spike higher)
5/26/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
Brazil reports a spike in daily cases which is concerning.
Colombia and Argentina started to display active cases curves rolling over but
now the curves curl higher again. Peru is in trouble again. Paraguay is
hurting. Ditto Bolivia that reports higher daily cases and deaths. Costa Rica
is in trouble. Dominican Republic must remain vigilant because something nasty
is taking hold on those islands.
The Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay area is a global
hotspot. Also Central America. Also pockets of eastern Europe and western Asia.
Belarus and Greece are a concern. Also Georgia east of Turkey. The UAE in the
Middle East is a concern as an ongoing spread is difficult to get under
control.
Russia reports elevated daily cases month after month with
the charts moving sideways. It is not wine and roses inside Russia. The UK is
concerned about the India variant spreading but it is not yet showing to any
great extent in the data or charts. Spain remains in a tricky position with its
active cases curve wanting to roll over but it begins curling higher again.
With tourist season on the come and the bikini’s dotting the beautiful beaches
of Spain and Portugal, vigilance is required (not in watching the bikinis but
in watching the coronavirus data!).
Botswana may see elevated cases as a new wave in South
Africa begins. Much of Africa is in a sideways stasis with cases not getting
much worse but conditions not improving either. Somalia’s active cases curve is
finally rolling over. Seychelles remains in deep trouble despite being a highly
vaccinated population. A nasty variant may be loose on the islands.
Mexico remains a concern as its active cases chart moves
dead-flat sideways but it needs to roll over lower. Daily cases are ramping
higher in Panama which may be the conceptualization of a new wave.
India remains the global epicenter of COVID-19. Sri Lanka as
well although both are displaying active cases charts that are pulling back
which is great news (see chart above). However, the Thailand, Vietnam and
Cambodia peninsula remains a challenge. Ditto Malaysia directly south.
Thus, the global hotspots are Central America, central South
America, India and the Cambodia peninsula area. Singapore reports a bump higher
in daily cases so a new wave may be beginning. Ditto Taiwan. Both nations were
shining examples on how to handle the pandemic but now they may be slipping
into trouble. The store shelves in Taipei are empty as Taiwanese begin
panicking about a potential outbreak.
Japan is feeling heat from corporations and other leaders
that want to cancel the Olympics but others say forge ahead. This week is
important. Japan’s active cases curve is projected to peak and roll over this
week to start forming the bell shape and point to positivity ahead (see chart
above). Japan will know their fate by next weekend. The friendly island nation
needs to see the active cases curve roll over and die. It should.
Next focusing on the US, the troubled states are highlighted
in the list below with their projections on when the active cases curve will
peak, flatten-out and roll over (max strain on healthcare system) as per the
Keystone Model. The 15 US states below have flat or rising active cases curves.
The worst states are at the bottom since their daily new cases are higher in
recent days and it will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over to
form the bell shape.
Kentucky (Continuous Wave) (data
is problematic; daily new cases are likely underreported)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Rhode Island (Fourth Wave)
4/7/21 New Case Peak Date
5/5/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Maryland (Continuous Wave)
4/9/21 New Case Peak Date
5/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
California (Fourth Wave) (data may
be problematic; maybe underreporting of daily new cases)
4/12/21 New Case Peak Date
5/10/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (chart continues floating higher)
Virginia (Continuous Wave) (problematic
data; probably underreporting daily cases)
4/13/21 New Case Peak Date
5/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher so the data is problematic)
Idaho (Fourth Wave)
4/14/21 New Case Peak Date
5/12/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat; it needs to roll over)
Maine (Second Wave)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/16/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve continues higher)
Indiana (Fourth Wave)
4/16/21 New Case Peak Date
5/14/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (curve is flat but needs to roll over)
Colorado
(Fourth Wave)
4/29/21
New Case Peak Date (highest cases for the fourth wave)
5/27/21
Projected Active Case Peak Date
Oregon (Fourth Wave)
4/30/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases of fourth wave)
5/28/21 Projected Active Case Peak Date
Hawaii (Fourth Wave)
5/6/21 New Case Peak Date
6/3/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Wyoming (Fourth Wave Begins)
5/10/21 New Case Peak Date (5/3/21
and 5/10/21 are the highest cases for the fourth wave)
6/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Mississippi (Fourth Wave Begins)
5/10/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for the fourth wave)
6/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Louisiana (Fourth Wave)
5/10/21 New Case Peak Date
6/7/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Washington (Fourth Wave)
5/14/21 New Case Peak Date
(highest cases for the fourth wave)
6/11/21 Projected Active Case Peak
Date
Michigan is creating the bell shape for the active cases
chart so it is on its way to recovery and is removed from the bad list above
(see the chart above). Oregon and Washington on the US West Coast must remain
under close watch. Ditto Mississippi and Louisiana. Wyoming needs to stay
vigilant as cases try to sneak higher albeit the numbers are small.
Hawaii must also keep fighting the coronavirus battle since
the active cases curve has not rolled over as yet. Hawaii’s decision to
maintain mask use is an intelligent one. Things may improve greatly over the
next couple weeks. Note how the port states are typically impacted more
negatively than other states.
Alabama reports a big spike in daily cases out of nowhere so
this requires close watching. It may be a fat finger data entry. Arizona and Nebraska display flat active cases
curves and are a concern but not yet placed on the bad list above. Keep an eye
on Arkansas and Nevada as well. So there are 15 states above that still need to
roll their active cases charts over and another 5 states that require a hairy
eyeball.
All in all, the United States is in good shape and the
improvements over the last couple weeks are extremely encouraging. New Mexico
cases have improved and one of the remarkable aspects of the pandemic over the
last month is how events and holidays would be expected to create superspreader
events but do not. With the southern border crisis continuing, the expectation
would have been for big jumps in daily cases in New Mexico, Arizona and Texas,
but this does not materialize.
America’s current success is mainly due to the vaccination
program that inoculated the most active in society. The elderly, first
responders and medical folks received shots first followed by the general
public. Once the people that are on the move each day are inoculated, the daily
cases roll over lower. These people stop at the coffee and doughnut shops in
the morning, then the gas station, they are in the office with coworkers, then
out and about meeting clients, perhaps stopping at another convenience store,
back to the office, then out to lunch, grabbing a paper from the corner vendor,
sharing elevators, you get the idea. There are lots of opportunities to catch
and transmit virus.
Compare that to Keystone, in a beautiful rural setting onthe Laurel Ridge of western Pennsylvania, sitting on a lawn chair watching therat race below. Obviously, inoculating the daily jet-setters greatly tamps down
the transmission of covid. Folks living in rural areas, and the elderly that
sit home all day watching television (think Florida), are not the main
transmitters of the virus.
Interestingly, for future pandemics, there should be
consideration given to inoculating the portion of the population that is most
active and out and about each day since that will likely tamp the virus down faster.
Virus spreads fastest around ports, airline hubs and along interstate highways
as highlighted early on in the pandemic.
The US government offers supplemental employment money above
the regular unemployment compensation during the pandemic. Employers are
complaining that they cannot find workers since many prefer to stay home since
the dole pays better than working. This situation may be overstated. Kids will
be back in school in August so things will be easier on parents then.
Many folks of common means are caring for children or sick
loved ones, or elderly relatives, and are simply getting their life in order
again. Republican states such as Montana, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho,
Missouri, Mississippi, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wyoming, and others,
however, waste no time in stripping the supplemental money from the huddled
masses.
The supplemental money should have never been offered to
begin with since that is unemployment compensation insurance’s role. But once
it is in play, to take it away is unconscionable. That money is not looked at
as extra. People of common means will feel cheated and believe that the
government took money from them. The supplemental is running out over the next
2 to 3 months anyway so to screw common people, that the elite class has
already screwed royally for the last few decades, will not end well.
The employers may get workers back but be prepared for
disgruntled employees. Maybe 10 workers come back but they only do the work of
four since they were screwed out of money and time off? This is the way common
and poor folks think. The rich do not understand such simple concepts.
As a manager, the best you can do is ask the worker if you
can call them once per week to see if they are ready to come back. You will
find after a few weeks they decide to come back. And they come back willfully,
and enthusiastically, and ready to begin the daily grind again and do a good
job. They know the boss cared about them and kept their job warm for them.
Contrast this approach with the workers that are now forced
to go back to work, to clean the sh*t out of those bedpans, and turn those
soiled sheets, and flip those greasy burgers, and clean the vomit on the stairs,
and yes, they have the life. Every day is paradise for common folks.
Stripping supplemental unemployment compensation from the
worker’s hands, toying with them first, dangling the money in front of them and
then taking it away, will not have a happy ending and the impact on the job
ranks will likely not show much of an improvement. It will fuel the coming
class war and it will create a new class of disgruntled employees who will
always feel that the government shafted them during their time of need in the
pandemic. It will also create more people sleeping in cars. Thus, one f*%# you
is going to be met with a retaliatory f#@* you. Nothing good can come from it.
Walensky appears on the Sunday morning news shows and says
vaccinated people can go without masks. The new mask rules are a Rorschach Test
with everyone seeing something different and states going off in different
directions. Walensky says that the mask guidelines for unvaccinated people have
not changed. She says the new rules are not permission for everyone to go
maskless. The CDC recommends that kids in school continue wearing masks.
The CDC director says they do not understand what is
occurring with the eight New York Yankee baseball players that contracted covid
despite being vaccinated. Perhaps it would be a good idea to understand those
breakthrough cases. Chop chop. Maybe it was the batch of vaccine that was not
up to par? Walensky says the shots did their job because the ballplayers did
not become ill except for one player with mild symptoms. The CDC should
understand more about this case or they do and are not saying.
OH-NO. THERE IT IS, SADLY. AT 4:15 PM EST ON
SUNDAY EVENING, 5/16/21, AS PER THE WORLDOMETER DATA, THE UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA CROSSES THE GRIM 600K DEATHS MILESTONE. 600,097 Americans are dead from
the China Flu. As explained above, the IHME believes that number to be over
900K once all the deaths are counted in the future. During the Spanish Flu in
1918, about 1 in 4 Americans were infected similar to now (official numbers are
1 in 10 but the CDC says it can be as much as 1 in 3), and 675K Americans died
100 years ago. The deaths in America from the China Flu now don a 6-handle just
like the Spanish Flu. The chart above was added as this dire news just crossed
the wires as Article 42 is set to go to print. Trump has 400K dead American
bodies on his watch and Biden, in only four months, has 200K American bodies
dead on his watch. The responsibility goes with the job.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/17/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The USA receives a 1-handle for daily new cases which is fantastic news. The best news in over a year. The US reports 17.8K daily new cases for yesterday. Granted, it is the Sunday number which would be expected to be the lowest number of the week, but it is joyful nonetheless. Let's see a lot more 1-handles and then go sub 10K cases per day. 289 Americans die yesterday. The total US deaths from COVID-19 over the last 15 months is 600,147 above the tragic 600K milestone. IHME is projecting the US deaths at 918K. The Johns-Hopkins data has been sitting at 586K deaths for the last couple days and always lags the Worldometer data. Maintain a hairy eyeball on several states mentioned above such as Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Mississippi and Hawaii. The beautiful islands of Hawaii report a spike higher in daily new cases yesterday to 124 cases so it is wise that mask guidelines and social distancing remain in place. Texas provides great news reporting zero deaths yesterday from covid. In early April, when fans packed the Texas Rangers baseball stadium and the mask guidelines were relaxed, the expectation was for a new wave of daily cases to occur. It did not. Further, the border crisis is also not adding to the daily cases in any significant amount which is surprising. The combination of vaccines and natural immunity is sending COVID-19 packing. The republican-leaning media, such as Fox News and Newsmax, has a field day with the Texas news because President Biden said the move to open businesses and relax mask use was "Neanderthal thinking." As it turns out, Texas was correct on this one and Biden was wrong. 1.7 million Americans pass through airports last Thursday which is pre-pandemic levels. People are traveling again. We will not have to wait long to see if there is a spike in daily cases due to the new mask guidelines and increased traveling and human interaction. A New York Yankee staffer tests positive for covid so that is nine contracting the virus despite being vaccinated. The CDC should already have a handle on this. What is going on there with those breakthrough cases? All nine received the J&J single-shot vaccine so Johnny John is going to receive more bad publicity. GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi report positive study results for a new vaccine under joint development. The pharma giants are pushing for approval by the end of the year. Starbucks sheds its maskless hesitancy and allows stores to go without face coverings unless local rules dictate otherwise. Starbucks flip-flops into the maskless boat, like Walmart a day ago, and joins Trader Joe's and Costco. Americans are venturing out of their coronavirus cocoons.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/17/21, at 5:00 AM EST: Good news for India reporting 282K daily new cases; a 2-handle! The cases remain horrifically high but are now back below 300K which is a big positive and sends the pandemic in the right direction. Remember, only a few days ago, daily cases were running above 400K per day. You have to take the positive news where you can get it during a once in a century pandemic. 4.1K Indians die yesterday so the bad news is that deaths remain above 4,000 per day. Deaths lag the daily case numbers so the data should improve for India this week. Unfortunately, the west coast of India is now pummeled by Cyclone Tauktae and six people die. Over 150K people are evacuated and sadly that may spread virus. Vaccinations are also delayed in the western regions due to the storm.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/17/21, at 6:00 AM EST: It would be extremely helpful if the CDC or other medical officials would release more information on natural immunity. The people that have contracted COVID-19 have built up a level of antibodies that protect them from the virus and enable a region to reach herd immunity. After 15 months, there has to be detailed information available. The Whitehouse is on its vaccination push campaign so talking about natural antibodies is not helpful for that goal. The CDC and others are telling people to get the vaccine regardless of whether you had covid or not. Well, do you have natural antibody protection or don't you? How long does it last? Is it different for different age groups or ethnicities? How does the natural immunity fit into the overall goal of herd immunity? As explained in the chronology several times, 70% to 85% of Americans either need vaccinated or have natural antibodies to reach herd immunity. This statement is blessed for many months by Dr Fauci, that many people are now calling, humorously and cynically, 'Lord Fauci'. However, the message was muddied about 3 weeks ago by President Biden who set the goal to have 70% of Americans vaccinated by 7/4/21. The Whitehouse now says the current 70% vaccination goal has nothing to do with herd immunity. It is another message mainly bungled by Sleepy Joe who must be sleepy. The rolling over of wave 4 occurs because of a combination of the vaccinations and natural immunity that is why it would be great to hear the CDC comment and provide numbers and data on the people that have contracted the virus and recovered and those that remain sick. Natural immunity plays a role in America's recent success and it would be nice to quantify the natural immunity in more detail. 34 million Americans have been infected with China Flu which is 10.3% of the population (34/330). The CDC said about a month ago that there may be 100 million Americans that have been infected three times the official number. If 100 million Americans have natural antibodies it makes great sense that this has made a significant contribution to the US ongoing success at tamping-out the virus. As long as the Biden administration is focused on getting as many people vaccinated as possible, the CDC will likely keep the information about natural immunity on the sly.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/17/21, at 10:00 AM EST: Target department stores, that are in competition with Walmart, throw in the towel, er mask, and jump on the maskless bandwagon, like Walmart, ditching the requirements unless local rules say otherwise. The virus is on the run and the US will likely look a lot different, to the good, a month from now.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 5/17/21, at 1:35 PM EST: President Biden speaks from the Whitehouse proclaiming that all 50 states report a drop in coronavirus cases over the last day. That is truly great news. It may be a stretch for a few states but the data typically has to fit the narrative during the pandemic rather than the other way around. COVID-19 is on the run in the United States but it would likely be smart to not become cocky. Texas reporting zero deaths receives lots of attention. Biden keeps pushing vaccinations and he says the officials keep looking for ways to encourage more shots. He should be spending more time accepting the fact that about 20% of the country does not plan to be vaccinated. Biden says vaccine availability will be extended into more rural areas. He calls the states to task that have low vaccination rates (mainly southern republican states) and warns the citizens that the virus cases may rise in their area (using psychology to coax the people to get vaccinated). Biden says vaccine doses have been shared with Canada and Mexico. 60 million AstraZeneca doses are committed to send overseas pending official approval of the vaccine in the States. Biden adds 20 million doses on top of that which will include the Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and J&J vaccines. He lays out a plan for sending vaccine overseas to help other nations and says 13% of the US vaccine production will be shipped overseas by the end of June. The 80 million doses will be exported overseas during the next 6 weeks. President Biden proclaims that as of tomorrow, 60% of Americans will have at least one shot. This number does not sound right. The math is explained above. Maybe he is going off different data than the CDC? Maybe Sleepy Joe Biden misspoke? He repeats the 60% of Americans have at least one shot a second time. If 60% of Americans have received at least one shot, that is 198 million people call it 2 hundo. Pulling the number straight off the CDC website is 158 million Americans with one shot which is 48%. Biden is in error but a closer look at the data likely reveals his thinking. For the US population over 18 years old, 60% have at least one shot. Bingo. See how fast and loose pundits, and presidents, operate with the facts? This was explained when Biden first made the proclamation to vaccinate 70% of the population by 7/4/21. Slyly, they slipped in the word "adult" in here and there, loosely, and it was explained that if the goal looked like it was slipping away, Biden would likely base the 70% goal on the 'adult population' in America. Do you understand the political baby games? Biden moves the goal posts so often he added wheels to the base of the uprights. The US population is 330 million and 258 million are over 18 years old. Thus, 60% of 258 million is 155 million which is the CDC statistic for the number of Americans over 18 years old with one shot. So the math is straight now. Biden plans on playing games and using the adult population number rather than the overall population. 48% (158/330) of America's 330 million people are vaccinated with at least one shot which is 158 million people. 60% (155/258) of America's population of 18 years old or older, 258 million people, are vaccinated with at least one shot which is 155 million people. Biden's goal is to have 70% of the population vaccinated by 7/4/21 and if the overall population goal is met, that will be pumped as a great victory, but if not, the adult count will be used to get over the finish line and that will be pumped as the greatest success story of all time. Biden provided a white lie to America yesterday. He needed to add the qualifying words "adult population" to his proclamation of 60% to be honest but what politician was ever honest? He is eliminating 72 million young people from the calculation (330-258), many that would not be vaccinated in time, which lowers the overall pool and makes reaching the 70% goal far easier. The US vaccination rate drops to 1.6 million doses per day. Biden's cheeks are puckering at the falling vaccination rate so it looks like he and his handlers are already massaging the 70% goal towards using the 'adult population' number rather than the 'overall population' number. Real-time numbers indicate that parents are becoming hesitant at having their kids vaccinated especially seeing the virus subside across the US. The Whitehouse is likely seeing this behavior developing in the polls and calling the audible to base the 70% goal on the 'adult population' (children may not be vaccinated over the next month to the big degree initially expected). The president wants to play golf from the women's tees.
Note Added Monday Evening, 5/17/21: Seychelles is handling an outbreak despite a high vaccination rate. A new vaccination effort is underway using Russia's Sputnik vaccine. The UK reports 2,323 new cases which are the India B1617 variant. All of England's great success in beating down covid is in jeopardy. London Mayor Khan says 400 cases of B1617 are occurring in the city.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/18/21, at 2:00 AM EST: The US reports 25K daily new cases. The Sunday number bumps higher to 21K cases. The numbers keep moving lower so the news is great. The 3-day MA for the US daily new cases prints a lower low so the downtrend in cases remains in tact and would be expected to continue. 369 Americans die yesterday. The US death count, as per Worldometer, is 600,533 souls. The Johns-Hopkins data is stuck with the total deaths sitting at 586K for days. Something is not right there. Remember, the chronology previously explained the collusion between the CDC, J-H and the Whitehouse so cynical minds wonder if the J-H death numbers are held down to avoid President Biden having to announce the 600K+ dead Americans. Biden was okay with commemorating the 400K milestone when he took office since that was all attributed to Trump. Biden has accumulated over 200K deaths on his watch after only 4 months. Use the Worldometer data for analysis especially for forecasting. The J-H US death count is now about 15K off the mark. The IHME says America's death count is actually over 900K. The US must roll the active cases curves over for the states listed above in the article; only then can we all breathe easier.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/18/21, at 3:00 AM EST: India reports 263K daily new cases yesterday headed lower in the right direction. However, 4,340 Indians ride the vimana to heaven yesterday; the deadliest day of the pandemic. With daily cases trailing lower, the death numbers should peak and start dropping in the days ahead.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/18/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The mass, mask confusion over the new CDC guidelines continue. Much of the complaining and hand wringing is by prima donnas that unfortunately make up a large part of the population nowadays. Many people are drama queens sensationalizing news items and events so people will look at them especially on social media. Politics, after all, is Hollywood for ugly people. CDC Director Walensky is used as a piñata getting poked and slapped with every mask complaint in America. Give it a couple days and the mask controversy will likely quickly recede. People like to moan and complain nowadays and will move on to a new target. The guidelines are straightforward. If vaccinated, you do not have to wear a mask, however, unvaccinated folks, and children, need to keep using masks indoors and in some outdoor situations. When the US daily new cases drop below 10K, that will be reason to celebrate. We are almost there now in the 20K to 30K daily case range. Also, all the states need to display active cases charts that are moving lower. The dozen or so states listed above in the article need to get with the program. America is getting very close to removing covid as a threat and June is setting up to be the happiest month for US citizens in the last 15 months. Start exercising those coronavirus pounds away now so the swimming trunks and bikinis fit properly for the beach this summer. A Harris poll, in cooperation with the American Psychological Association (APA), reports that Americans, on average, gain 29 pounds (13 kg) during the pandemic. That's not good. One-half of the people in the study reported a weight gain of over 15 pounds (7 kg) and 1 in 10 of the respondents said they gained more than 50 pounds (23 kg). Overall, about 61% of Americans, 3 in every 5 people, have gained weight during the pandemic.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 5/18/21: Child coronavirus cases in the US drop to the lowest since October; 7 months ago. 49K cases are reported for last week. The happy talk is tempered because about 24% of the cases in America now are young folks and children. The elderly were hit hard a year ago as the pandemic worsened into the horrible climax in late January of this year. It makes sense that proportionally the young folks account for a higher percentage of infections these days. Last year, young folks and children averaged about 10% to 15% of the cases. This information will likely steer some parents towards having kids vaccinated. Millions of young people are vaccinated now although the majority of the shots are for those that are involved in sports or other activities that likely will, or are, demanding vaccinations as a prerequisite for participating as well as schools or colleges that require mandatory shots. Once again, lower middle class and poor kids stand by, watching others live life.
Note Added Tuesday Evening, 5/18/21: 15 US states report zero deaths yesterday. The CDC says 60% of the adults over 18 years old have had at least one shot which confirms the data on the CDC COVID Tracking site and the explanation above about President Biden's 70% vaccination goal by 7/4/21. That goal is based on the 'adult' population not the overall population and this is fine, hopefully, the goal will be met and provide positivity for society as the flags are waved and the fireworks go boom on Independence Day. Embattled New York Governor Cuomo continues to hang on to his job since the region is mostly democrats, but the heat rises over the nursing home scandal. News reports say Casanova Cuomo received $5.1 million for his book that was written and took priority over handling the pandemic. It is alleged, and bearing out in data, that Cuomo sent thousands of elderly covid patients back to nursing homes which infected thousands of people resulting in thousands of deaths. Cuomo and his handlers allegedly downplayed the data, fudging numbers, because he was more concerned about his book deal. That is an obscene amount of money for a book. Cuomo fancied himself as a top candidate for president after the popular daily news conferences concerning the pandemic last year but now he is battling shame, and perhaps criminality, from the scandal as well as sexual harassment charges. Cuomo only sold about 50K books. His relatives may have purchased a few books and a couple people may have purchased a book to level a wobbly kitchen table. The math with the millions does not add up and likely has more to do with political favors and games rather than selling books. Cuomo says he gave $500K of the money to covid charities but even all that dough is unable to raise people from the dead.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/19/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The India continues making progress with its active cases curve rolling over and forming the bell shape. Daily new cases are at 267K yesterday. The news would be better if the deaths will roll over which they are not. Tragically, 4,525 Indians lost their lives yesterday to China Flu the deadliest day ever. To the north where the COVID-19 outbreak started, ground zero in Wuhan, China, over one year ago, they enjoy an economy and life getting back to normal. China owes the world massive reparations but this will be settled after the pandemic is defeated in the world. The death numbers always lag the daily cases and hospitalizations so the data should decrease in the coming days. The sad part is that the actual death count is from 2 to 5 times these numbers. Malaysia hits 4.9K daily new cases another high for the current wave. Malaysia, you have to start taking the outbreak more seriously. Malaysia deaths are just shy of 50 yesterday the deadliest day of the pandemic. Oh-No. Thailand reports a huge spike in daily new cases above 9.6K cases and 35 deaths the deadliest day ever. Central America and central South America continue struggling at containing ongoing outbreaks. The joy and hope in the United States is tempered by the sadness and despair remaining in several global hotspots. Japan has reason for optimism for the firs time in a couple months. Japan's active cases curve takes a dip lower which is fantastic news, however, one day is not a trend. Simply keep an eye on it but there is an expectation that Japan's wave is topping out now; The Olympics depends on improving data this week and this is a great first step. The Keystone Model targeted tomorrow for the peak in the active cases chart so things are looking good. Yesterday, was a first step. Keep it going, Japan. Cafes and bistros are reopening in Paris and other parts of France so the French are again enjoying their wine, baguette and cigarettes. President Macron visits a cafe and promotes vaccinations.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 5/19/21, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports 27.5 daily new cases yesterday and 733 deaths. The trends remain favorable. The daily cases are key since Americans are out and about more, skipping and frolicking in the springtime sunshine, tossing masks into the air like confetti. Daily cases must be watched closely into Memorial Day weekend, 10 to 12 days away, for the story to be told with the new mask guidelines and the economy reopening. Colorado is improving slightly. Oregon and Washington remains tricky but hint that an improvement may be finally on the come this week. Perhaps all the backed-up container ships and dock activity (the shipping backlog will take another month or two to work through the ports) in these two states keeps the case counts high. Hawaii must stay vigilant a few more days. Louisiana crosses the 10.5K death grim milestone. Louisiana is still reporting elevated cases so you folks need to bear down for the next couple weeks. 22 republican states are stopping the supplemental unemployment compensation benefits. They say the money provides an incentive for people to stay home which is creating the labor shortage. These states boast that the economies will be roaring back over the next month or two. Do not hold your breath. What they are likely creating is hundreds of thousands of disgruntled workers many that will want to screw the companies that screwed them. The supplemental payments are running out over the next couple months anyway so forcing the issue is probably an unwise move. Comically, Connecticut is offering a $1,000 bonus for people returning to work. Where does all the money come from? Everyone (a politician) likes to play the role of Santa Claus as long as they are spending other people's (taxpayer's) money.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 5/19/21: Amazon drops its mask-wearing policy unless local rules indicate otherwise. The shipping behemoth, that provides daily supplies to the nation, is having their employees enter vaccination information into a data base. A green check mark will be added to their employee badges if they are vaccinated. King Bezos asks his workers each morning for their 'papers please' and the green check mark on their body will make this task easier. Bow down before your master and take on the green check mark to prove you are clean, and noble, and righteous. Those without the green mark are the great unwashed, the ignorant, the dregs of society. America is doing a great job of further dividing everyone and breeding hate and distrust. Bezos's actions promote vaccine shaming. Ohio is implementing a "Vax-a-Million" lottery program to increase participation in the vaccination program. Cash prizes and scholarships are provided to lucky people that have been vaccinated. If you are not vaccinated, or do not plan to get the shot since the virus appears to be ebbing, or perhaps you have already contracted covid and have natural antibody protection, you are not entered in the lottery. Of course not. You would be the great unwashed and non-righteous people in society. Ohio is offering cash and prizes to those that roll up their sleeves but all that New York Mayor de Blasio offers his constituents is a cold hamburger. There are over 200 US universities and colleges planning to implement mandatory vaccinations. Students are starting to protest the new rules and many do not intend to comply. Social unrest is brewing at a college campus near you.
Note Added Wednesday Evening, 5/19/21: The republicans on the House Intelligence Committee are frustrated with President Biden's slow actions in determining the origin of COVID-19. The panel releases a report with a bombshell heading, "Significant circumstantial evidence raises serious concerns that the COVID-19 outbreak may have been a leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology." Of course it was. The panel says, "International efforts to discover the true source of the virus, however, have been stymied by a lack of cooperation from the People's Republic of China." The report says the laboratory has many safety issues over the years that have resulted in infections. Lab workers became sick with COVID-19 early on in the pandemic in late 2019. The report highlights the "dangerous research" performed at the lab. (As a side note, there is a second bioweapons laboratory in Wuhan that China refuses to confirm or discuss). The Intelligence Committee wants an investigation into US government agencies and academic (university) institutions that "may have funded or collaborated in gain of function research" which is making viruses worse so they can be studied. There are a lot of unknowns about the origin of the virus and the filthy communists will never tell the truth. The WHO, that lays in bed with the CCP, and protected communist China early on in the pandemic while screwing the rest of the world, released the joke of a report this year that concluded the virus did not come from a lab but instead from animal to animal then to human transmission. The WHO report is such a pile of rubbish that the guy running the joint and maintaining dirtbag President Xi's number on speed-dial, Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the "assessment (investigation into the origin of coronavirus) was not extensive enough." Coronavirus came from the Wuhan Lab and the United States was likely funding research there. Former CDC Director Dr Redfield told America this year that the virus was inadvertently leaked from a lab in Wuhan, China. Current CDC Director Walensky is wishy-washy on the subject saying most coronaviruses come from an animal origin but the virus escaping the lab is "one possibility." Everyone knows the virus came from the Wuhan Lab so trying to sew doubt in this realization and instead push other origination ideas is a grave disservice to the CDC, the United States and the world.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/20/21, at 2:30 AM EST: India deaths yesterday are at 3.9K finally below 4K. India's going in the right direction. Oh-no. Malaysia reports 6.1K daily new cases the highest ever of the pandemic. 46 Malaysians die yesterday only surpassed by yesterday's 47 souls the two deadliest days of the pandemic. Japan's active cases curve is rolling over to form the bell shape which is great news but a huge 227 deaths are reported the deadliest day of the pandemic and twice any prior day's number. It may have been a backlog number. South Africa reports 3,522 daily new cases yesterday the highest number for the new third wave that has begun. South Africa needs to redouble its efforts and tell the population to watch out or it will be in a heap of trouble a month from now.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/20/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US total deaths will likely top 602K today as per the Worldometer data. The Johns-Hopkins data remains stumbling in the background with their death number stagnant not yet at 588K. The US is on the right path forward with the data trends continuing lower. The 3-day MA for the US daily new cases (see chart above) is moving higher again after printing another lower low (which is good). It is important that the 3-day MA prints a lower high over the next couple days to maintain the downtrend in US daily cases.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 5/20/21, at 3:00 PM EST: It is another day so Dr Fauci is out and about on the television circuit providing commentary, and controversy. Fauci proclaims that a booster shot will be needed for all those folks that took, or are taking, the vaccine. Of course there will be boosters and big pharma has a huge tickler file where every September they will notify folks that it is time to roll up their sleeves. The pharmaceutical companies plan on making big money on the back end. Pfizer and Moderna repeat prior comments saying that a booster shot will be needed and development and drug trials are underway. Both companies are expecting boosters to be available by September. Pfizer says a booster shot will be needed 8 to 12 months after the second shot. The talk about booster shots creates angst at the Whitehouse and among the healthcare professionals steering the pandemic ship. The lightbulb goes off in their heads that all the talk about booster shots may deter people from wanting to be vaccinated. Now it is not two shots that are a month apart, which requires scheduling for the second shot, but there will be a third shot, and likely a shot every subsequent September. Later, Fauci walks back the talk about boosters saying that it may be a year or more before a booster shot is needed. Are you buying what he's selling? The cat is out of the bag. Do the math. Pfizer makes the vaccine and they say you need another shot after 8 months. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was the first available and shots were going into arms in December. 20 million shots were complete when former President Trump was booted from office on 1/20/21. Hold your hands up in front of your face with fingers spread apart and count; One, January, two, February, three, March, etc... Pfizer says booster shots may need to begin in August/September (pending approval) 8 months after the second shot. June is here in 10 days so booster shots are only a couple months away. People will be receiving booster shots while others receive their first shot while others will pass on the shots. The vaccine mess is becoming messier. Fortunately, the virus is subsiding in the States. The folks vaccinated in January and February may need boosters in September and October, respectively. Fauci says the US should reach President Biden's goal of 70% of the adult population vaccinated by 7/4/21. Fauci worded it correctly with the 'adult' added to the phrase which makes it easier for the Whitehouse to attain (as compared to the overall population).
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 5/20/21, at 4:00 PM EST: Utah and Iowa, two states with lower vaccination rates, pass laws that outlaw mask mandates. The rules apply to schools and businesses. These states want folks to go maskless and get on with life. We will know in a week or two if the daily cases rise due to the public's newfound maskless fun and frolic. The WHO continues recommending against international travel to stop the spread of the variants. The US maintains a warning for citizens to not travel to 80% of the countries on earth. Europe announces vaccine certificates that would aid traveling between nations.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 5/20/21: President Biden signs a bill to fight Asian discrimination. The narrative about an increase in attacks on Asians, because of the pandemic, has been peddled by the left-leaning media for the last few months. The number of crimes are small so percentage changes are used by the news media to make the problem sound big. Broadcasting this Asian hate narrative into American minds allows the same fear-mongers to complain that the coronavirus is called the China Flu and Wuhan Virus (in their minds, denoting negativity towards Asians). It is called the China Flu because that is where it began, and the 3 syllables are quick and easy to say, and it is now in the American lexicon. Any very limited Asian attacks are centered in the four hate cities of Atlanta, New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles. It is a disservice to the rest of the nation to paint them in the same negative racist light as these sick cities. Why not improve your hate cities instead of labeling the rest of the country the way you are? The shooting at the massage parlors in Atlanta this year (many Asian women work in massage parlors as the whole country understands), is not a hate crime (it appears to be sex-related) but the authorities waving the racist hate rhetoric banners are trying to label it as such. A recent incident shows two women accosted but a man but he was Asian. Another crime was Black on Asian. Another incident was a nutcase Asian with a rifle jumping onto a bus with children but thankfully no one was hurt and he was taken away by police for mental help. There are nutcases in every ethnicity and group as everyone understands. Folks, do not be stupid. People dictating separate rules for different races, ethnicities and groups are the actual racists. Move out of those hate cities where the Asian abuse occurs. The rest of the country gets along fine. Those cities must be lousy hate-filled places to live. Anti-Jew discrimination is also on the front burner in the US due to the ongoing conflict in Israel (Palestinians and the Hamas terrorists (Arabs) shooting rockets at Israel (Jews) that then retaliates). Humans love to hate each other.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/21/21, at 3:00 AM EST: Daily new cases in the US are down -25% week on week and hospitalizations are off -12%. US daily new cases are 30.2K for yesterday a hair above 30K after stringing together several sub 30K days. The 3-day MA for daily new cases is coming up for its next peak and another lower low will be a great sight. Friday data is typically the highest of the week and that is today. The weekend data is the lowest and maybe a couple days of sub 20K cases will occur. 659 Americans die yesterday pushing the total US death count above 602K.
Note Added Friday Morning, 5/21/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India reports 259K daily new cases and 4.2K deaths. India needs the deaths to go sub 4K. Oh-no. Malaysia reports 6.8K daily new cases another spike higher and new record for the pandemic. Malaysia reports 59 deaths the deadliest day of the pandemic. The virus is out of control in Malaysia. Thailand remains challenged. Japan's active cases curve moves lower which is good news and deaths are 89 yesterday way below that prior day's spike to 227 deaths. Japan should improve with each day forward.
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 5/21/21: The Whitehouse coronavirus task force conducts a press conference led by Fauci, Walenski, Murthy and Slavitt. The officials are encouraging young people to get vaccinated using the dating apps such as Tinder, OKCupid, Bumble, Hinge, BLK, Match, Chispa, Badoo and Plenty of Fish to increase awareness. Who knew there were so many love apps? The sales pitch for young people to get vaccinated is that it will be easier to find love. Slavitt proclaims, "We have finally found the one thing that makes us all more attractive, a vaccination." Of course the announcement is somewhat tongue-and-cheek and comical, but give them credit for targeting the correct demographic. The older folks that do not want vaccinated are set in their ways and are not going to change their minds. Younger folks, however, are peer conscious and typically desire to be part of a group so if one or a few get the shot, others may follow. The KFF data shows that 24% of the 18 to 29 years old age group has a 'wait and see' approach to vaccinations the largest number of all demographic data. In general, older adults and democrats are the most enthusiastic about rolling up their sleeves. Conversely, young adults and republicans are less likely to get the shot. The young and especially young republicans should be the focus for the vaccine marketing campaign since these clay minds have a chance of changing. The dating app angle is interesting but perhaps the unvaccinated may develop the same group mentality and decide to date each other. Time will tell. The unvaccinated probably have the better parties and bands; just sayin'. Whitehouse pandemic advisor and media spokesperson Andy Slavitt says his 19-year old son is a COVID-19 long-hauler still experiencing symptoms such as fatigue, shortness of breath and loss of taste and smell for weeks after being sick. Slavitt encourages young folks to get the shot.
Note Added Friday Evening, 5/21/21: Dr Gottlieb, on CNBC media, says the combination of vaccinations, natural immunities, the warmer weather and people remaining cautious create the drop in cases and positive direction for the nation. The impact of natural immunities in lowering the case count is not being given the credit it deserves. The reason is simple. The CDC and Whitehouse are pushing to get as many folks vaccinated as possible so they avoid and downplay the people that have natural antibodies. The CDC recommends that people previously infected with coronavirus should get vaccinated. President Biden's goal is 70% of the adult population vaccinated by 7/4/21 only 43 days away. The US vaccination rate based on the 7-day MA is steady at 1.6 million doses per day. The long slide lower in the rate from the top at 3.4 million doses per day back in April has finally stabilized and is moving sideways. That will be a relief for the Whitehouse. Concerning the population over 18 years old as per the CDC, the adult population, 61% is vaccinated with at least one dose, or 157 million people. This is based on 257 million people in the 18 years old and older demographic (157/0.6). The goal is 70% to be vaccinated so that is 180 million people (257x0.7). Thus, Biden needs another 23 million people to be vaccinated to reach his goal (the final 9% needed to go from 61% to 70%). Based on 43 more days, this is a vaccination rate of 0.5 million doses per day easily doable. From a different perspective, the 1.6 million doses per day current rate times 43 days is another 69 million vaccinated people which would provide a total of 226 million adults vaccinated well above the goal. Based on the 1.6 rate, 23 million more people will be vaccinated in 14 days, or 6/5/21, a month ahead of the 7/4/21 target date. Since the goal is easily doable, the official approval of the Pfizer vaccine (versus emergency approval) may not be as pressing a matter. Only about one-half of the US military is vaccinated. If shots are made mandatory for military personnel, it will add millions to the vaccinated roles. 161 million Americans are shot with at least one dose which is 49% of the total population (161/330). If 70% of the overall (not adult) population would be the goal by 7/4/21, that is 231 million people that need vaccinated. Taking away the 161 million that have at least one dose already is 70 million more that need at least one shot to reach a 70% goal for the entire US population by Independence Day. 70 million shots in 43 days is a 1.6 million doses per day vaccination rate the exact current rate. This tells you that Biden has a chance of attaining 70% of the entire population vaccinated by 7/4/21. Obviously, he would want this but he could use the adult statistics as the fall-back option for success. At the current 1.6 vaccination rate and 43 days, 69 million more people will be vaccinated by 7/4/21 which will create a total of 230 million people (161+69). It is a squeaker as far as vaccinating 70% of the entire US population with at least one shot. If Biden pressures the FDA, CDC, Pfizer/BioNTech and other officials to provide official approval for the vaccine instead of emergency approval, vaccinating the military would deliver this goal for Biden. Humorously, Biden will waltz across the goal of '70% of adult Americans vaccinated with at least one dose by 7/4/21' on 6/5/21 but attaining '70% of Americans vaccinated with at least one dose by 7/4/21' remains a challenging task, perhaps a bridge too far. Thus, the first, and the president's main goal, is no challenge at all, while trying to vaccinate 70% of the overall population by 7/4/21 would be a real achievement. The Whitehouse says that 1 billion vaccine doses will be produced by the end of the year. Pfizer says its vaccine can remain viable for one month in the refrigerator rather than the prior 5 days. Also, the Pfizer vaccine can last in the regular freezer for 2 weeks which provides expanded access and opens the door to reaching remote locations.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/22/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The US reports 29K daily new cases for yesterday. This is great news because the Friday data is typically the highest numbers. 657 Americans die yesterday. The death numbers need to move lower instead of stagnating. The officials keep saying that vaccinations prevent death from covid but the death rate in proportion to the people that become infected in the US has remained steady all year long. About 2% of the people that contract covid will die and this number does not budge. 603,408 Americans are dead from China Flu as per Worldometer. The Johns-Hopkins data is at 589K US deaths. The summer heat is appearing across the southern US which means people will flock inside to air conditioning but this will unfortunately promote spread of the coronavirus. Southern states face a double-whammy due to low vaccination rates. Louisiana, Mississippi and other southern states must remain vigilant and find ways to encourage more vaccinations as the heat is turned higher. Honesty is the best policy so the people in the south should be told it will become unbearably hot, sticky and humid, as they know, and they will seek the indoors, as they know, and the virus will spread more, so it would be prudent for them to get the shot now and not place themselves in danger. People understand simple messages and instructions. Ohio vaccinations are creeping higher after the state offers a lottery and chance at prizes if you get the shot.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/22/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Daily new cases jump 16-fold in Taiwan over the last week. Taiwan needs vaccine with only 1% of the population inoculated but prevents the use of China vaccines. Taiwan is smart to not trust the filthy lying communists. China puts the screws to Taiwan making it hard for other nations to provide help and vaccine. Taiwan may have to impose a lockdown in the coming days or weeks. Once a shining example of how to handle the pandemic, Taiwan is now slipping down the rabbit hole. No doubt the filthy CCP is champing at the bit to occupy Taiwan, under the guise of helping with the pandemic, when the real goal is a soft takeover like dirtbag Dictator Xi did to Hong Kong this year. Japan crosses the 12K total death level grim milestone but the pandemic continues to move in the right direction with less daily cases and the active cases curve continues lower. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) Vice President John Coates is asked if the games will go on and he replies, "The answer is absolutely yes." Coates decrees, "The games will be safe for everyone participating." If things continue in the current direction, the Tokyo games starting in late July should go off successfully and safely. India is making gains with the virus but deaths remain stubbornly high with 4.1K souls dying yesterday. Malaysia, Nepal, Thailand and other Asian nations remain challenged by coronavirus. The worry, and spread, of the India B1617 variant in the UK continues but travelers decide to hit the beaches anyway. Brit's are already frolicking on Portugal's beaches and Spain, anxious to make up for lost revenue in the last year, jumps into the game allowing for easier travel with the UK. Will this overzealous reopening of the travel industry among the UK, Portugal and Spain lead to a new outbreak? Germany goes in the opposite direction naming the UK as an 'area of variant concern' and enforcing 2 weeks of quarantine for any Brit visiting the Deutschland. It will be interesting to see if the daily new cases bump higher in the UK, Portugal and Spain over the coming days as the fun parties, music and dancing continue into the wee hours of the morning. The Mediterranean beaches will be packed this summer.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/22/21, at 5:00 AM EST: The controversy and hand-wringing over the new CDC mask guidelines is subsiding as expected. People like to complain and moan about things for a few days and then they move on. Many Americans are continuing to wear masks inside grocery stores and buildings even if the businesses do not mandate masks. Humans are trained for 15 months to wear masks so it will take time to un-train. This is a good thing since it helps keep virus transmission at bay as the country returns to normalcy. The summer will likely be quiet with the exception of the southern states which may fight a summer wave due to people gathering inside to escape the heat, and then the next test is in the Fall to see if covid raises its ugly head again. The medical folks are not mentioning booster shots anymore since this will likely deter people from getting the shots. Instead of two shots and done, it is two shots now, then another shot in the Fall (booster), and then maybe a shot each September thereafter. That is a hard sell especially for people that have religiously never taken a flu shot throughout their entire lives.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 5/22/21: Oregon announces a million-dollar lottery to encourage more people to become vaccinated. Ohio's offering of a lottery, prizes and scholarships has created a +28% jump in vaccinations over the last week. You can get most any human to do anything if you shake a $5 dollar bill in front of their face. Money is the ultimate motivator.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/23/21, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 19.6K daily new cases for yesterday, a 1-handle!, although it will likely sneak to 20K as more final numbers trickle-in. It is all good. A new sense of optimism around defeating coronavirus is taking hold in America. The 3-day MA trend line for US daily new cases peaks on Friday and rolls over lower so another lower high is printed which is great news (the downtrend in daily new cases will continue). The 7-day MA trend line for the daily cases continues sloping lower now at 26.1K cases so as long as the daily new cases remain below 26.1K each day forward the downward trend in daily cases will continue. More 1-handles with daily new cases should be on the come. 468 Americans die yesterday below the 7-day MA which is at 570 deaths (the average deaths per day over the last 7-day period). Almost 604K Americans are dead from the Wuhan Virus; 400K are dead under former President Trump's watch and 204K are dead under President Biden's watch. That is a lot of people. To put it in perspective, 16 baseball stadiums of Americans have perished from coronavirus over the last year.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 5/23/21, at 4:30 AM EST: India is on the verge of exceeding 300K total deaths a grim milestone especially realizing the actual number is two to five times higher. The only deaths counted are those in hospitals and they have been turning people away for over a month. Despite this dire and sad news, conditions continue improving in India. The daily new cases keep dropping, 244K cases yesterday, albeit still way too high. 3.8K Indians die yesterday finally a number below 4K. Hopefully, the deaths will go sub 3K quickly. India is also dealing with mucormycosis, the "Black Fungus," a rare and sometimes deadly infection impacting the sinuses, eyes and lungs. The black fungus is appearing in covid patients with diabetics and the immunocompromised most impacted. Russia's daily case data does not drop and instead moves sideways with an ever so slight upward bias. Russia is having trouble handling the pandemic even though it is shipping the Sputnik V vaccine elsewhere. Dirtbag Dictator Putin controls the state-run media and likely needs the money. Oh-no. South Africa's new wave three is well underway and the least talked about hotspot on the globe. People think the virus was defeated there but it is ramping higher once again with 4.2K daily new cases the highest of the new wave three. South Africa will become very ugly over the next month; the country needs to take action immediately. Oh-no. Bolivia is getting hit super hard and is another un-talked-about global hotspot. Bolivia reports over 3K daily new cases yesterday the highest ever. The country is in big trouble. Bolivia deaths due to covid are averaging about 60 per day. Oh-no. Paraguay, Bolivia's neighbor, reports over 3.2K daily new cases yesterday the highest ever with 120 deaths the deadliest day of the pandemic. Argentina and Chile are part of this hotspot as well. Folks need help in South Africa and central South America as the pandemic rages out of control.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/24/21, at 3:30 AM EST: The US exceeds 604K deaths from coronavirus a horrific milestone but the direction forward remains positive and optimistic. America reports only 13.5K daily new cases yesterday the lowest day going all the way back to the start of the pandemic. The 3-day MA trend line continues lower and prints another lower low so the downtrend will continue. 228 Americans die yesterday, again, the lowest numbers since the start of this China Virus nightmare. The virus is burning itself out in the US, however, Hawaii remains challenged and reports a spike of 141 daily new cases the highest since January. This is odd since Hawaii one of the most vaccinated states. Hawaii likely needs more genomic testing to see if the India B1617 variant is raising its ugly head in paradise. Alabama is looking tricky right now and may be starting to fall into trouble. The southern states have the lowest vaccination rate while at the same time a pre-summer heatwave smacks the region chasing people inside into the air conditioning where they are coughing and breathing on each other.
Note Added Monday Morning, 5/24/21, at 4:00 AM EST: India total deaths are near 304K. India daily new cases continue dropping. Yesterday is 223K cases so a 1-handle is on the way. India's active cases chart forms a perfect bell curve pattern verifying that the covid bastard is on the run. 4.5K Indians die yesterday so there remains no relief for many families although these numbers should begin subsiding. Perhaps as people die in India, and beds open up at the hospitals, the sickest of the sick enter, and they die, keeping the death count elevated. The India death number only counts deaths in hospitals not the deaths in the parking lot or streets or at home. This is why journalists on the ground say the India numbers are grossly underestimated. Brazil has not been in the news lately but they continue fighting the virus and daily new cases remains elevated all year long. Oh-no. Malaysia reports 7K daily new cases yesterday the highest of the pandemic. The chronology kept warning Malaysia that the fourth wave had started but the government took too long to impose restrictions and warn the public. Malaysia is now running around like a chicken with its head cut off. Good luck. Japan keeps receiving heat about moving forward with the Olympics but it appears a good decision at this juncture. Japan's daily cases peaked on 5/9/21 which is 15 days ago. Japan's active cases curve peaked on 5/17/21 a week ago and now rolls over to form the coveted bell shape. If the current trend remains in play, which it should, everyone in Japan will feel better about the path forward in a week or two.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 5/24/21: The Wall Street Journal posts an article bolstering the theory that coronavirus was released, either intentionally or accidentally, from the Wuhan Institute of Virology's laboratory. Three Chinese workers at the Wuhan lab contracted sickness in November 2019 earlier than the lying CCP has previously disclosed. The first coronavirus case is on 12/8/19 in Wuhan, China. The filthy communists have lied about the virus from the start using the WHO as an accomplice. It is sad to see left-leaning media in the States act as if the laboratory origin of the virus theory is fantasy or an unlikely idea; it is in fact the main viable hypothesis. There are actually two laboratories in Wuhan but the filthy communists will never verify the second lab since it is involved in bioweapons research. To believe otherwise exposes yourself as a fool and ignorant dolt. It is not science fiction to weaponize a virus. A rogue nation can develop a virus, along with the vaccine simultaneously, then inoculate the entire population, and then release the bioweapon upon the world. China is concerned that the world is concluding, as they should, that the virus originated at one of the Wuhan labs. Countries such as the UK, Australia and the US, and European nations, are defeating the virus, and the rest of the word will overcome covid during the next year. At that point, the countries of the world, sans China, will unite and pay a visit to the dirtbag murderer Dictator Xi. The world will accept cash, stocks, bonds or real estate from the filthy CCP and if China rejects offering reparations for damaging the planet, the virus especially crushing third-world countries, this inaction by China and refusal to make good on its mistake may initiate World War III. We live in interesting times just as the ancient Chinese curse 'may he live in interesting times' opines. Both Fauci and Walensky say it is possible the virus originated from the Wuhan lab. Fauci calls for an investigation but he could have been more vocal about this over the last year. There are US skeletons in the Wuhan closet. America provided funding for the Wuhan labs but Fauci says the money was not used for gain of function research (where viruses are made worse in the laboratory for the purposes of study). When Senator Paul grilled Fauci on Capitol Hill the other day (the two have an ongoing tit for tat verbal war), he asked Fauci how he knows the money was not used to fund nefarious experiments even bioweapons research. Fauci could not make that guarantee so the obvious conclusion is that some American money may have funded the sick Chinese experiments manipulating viruses. It is a twisted web and the truth will likely never be known. China complains that they are the target of a hit campaign and the laboratory origin talk is a conspiracy theory. What else do you expect the filthy lying communists to say? The China Flu originated in the Wuhan laboratories and the CCP continues to cover it up. Saying otherwise is speaking naively and stupidly. In fact, any broadcaster playing down the Wuhan lab origination theory, should be viewed skeptically in whatever they say forever forward. Lawmakers in Washington, DC, mainly republicans, want to see the United States build a coalition with other nations and more effectively investigate the origin of COVID-19. Other countries already express interest in joining the US effort. China must be taken to task for their nefarious deed; there is no other option. The word will hold communist China responsible for allowing the virus to escape their laboratories. Dit.... dit.... dit... this is coming across the news wires. Senator Paul receives a death threat via an envelope containing a white powder substance (probably talcum powder, detergent or salt simulating fake Anthrax). A picture of Paul is shown with him wearing a neck brace and donning a cast and disturbingly, with a gun to his head. The FBI (since the mail piece crossed state lines) will track the nutcase down and toss him in jail. The United States is studying heart ailments appearing in some teenagers after receiving vaccinations. This issue has been previously noted in Israel and the US. The CDC says myocarditis, heart muscle inflammation, occurs more in boys than girls and usually appears within 4 days of the second dose. Some parents are deciding to delay the second dose for their teenage kids by only a few days when the US is expected to release findings on its investigation. A Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, woman has had two heart attacks after receiving the vaccination but it is unknown if there is a direct link. New York City Mayor de Blasio says all schools will be in service for in person learning in September.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/25/21, at 3:00 AM EST: The world is at 168 million total coronavirus cases with 3.5 million dead. It is a killer virus that escaped the Wuhan lab despite the lying communists claiming otherwise. 149 million people have recovered. 34 million Americans have been inflicted with China Flu, 1 in 10, with 604,416 dead and 28 million recovered. The Johns-Hopkins death data continues to lag and is losing relevancy. The US reports 19.9K daily new cases for Monday which is great news; a 1-handle on a week day. Eureka! California's active cases curve, that has been flatter than a newlywed's soufflé since January, finally takes a slight tick lower from 1.695 million cases to 1.694 million cases. Hallelujah as Leonard Cohen sings. The California data is a major influence on the US data. As the California active cases chart finally rolls over lower, that will help bring the US active cases chart (shown above) down sharply. COVID-19 is being defeated in the US. Is it man's efforts with vaccines or is the virus burning itself out after 18 months like many prior viruses?
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 5/25/21, at 4:00 AM EST: Bahrain continues struggling with handling the pandemic despite a very high vaccination rate. Thus, China's Sinopharm and Russia's Sputnik vaccines are under more scrutiny as to their effectiveness. It is great to vaccinate a lot of people but if the juice is not that good at preventing the virus, what good is it? Hawaii in the US is also vaccinated well but cases remain stubbornly high. In these highly vaccinated areas where cases continue rising, either the vaccines are not as effective as expected, or the variants are taking hold outpacing the shots, or the vaccines are not as effective at handling the variants. India remains on the mend with 196K daily new cases the first time cases are sub 200K since 4/14/21 nearly 6 weeks ago! And more good news is the 7-day MA for deaths has curled over so the deaths are peaking out as well. India still has a long battle on its hands but the data and charts say the peak worst times are over. Japan is also on the mend. The US issues a Level 4 warning (highest) cautioning citizens to not travel to Japan as the Olympics approach in late July. Level 4 considers the country to not be a safe destination even if vaccinated. Talk about Johnny-come-lately. That announcement was needed 4 or 5 weeks ago and it can actually be relaxed now as Japan's active cases curve rolls over to form the bell shape. Osaka hospitals remain heavily worked but should improve significantly in the coming days. The US decision is a disservice to Japan and screws them as the Olympic games approach. Only 2% of the Japanese population is vaccinated which concerns the US. As conditions continue improving in Japan over the coming days and weeks, perhaps the US will reverse the Level 4 warning but no doubt it throws a wrench (spanner) into people's travel plans. It is amazing to witness the stupidity in governments around the world in handling coronavirus. Doesn't any country have experienced chart technicians helping the medical folks analyze the data? Keystone can teach a fifth-grader to read the charts and tell the world leaders if their country is headed into trouble or not with COVID-19 and yet the actual leaders do not know which side of the chart is up when they hold it in front of their faces. It is funny, albeit tragic on an epic scale.
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