Tuesday, March 5, 2013

NFLX Netflix Weekly and Daily Charts Overbot Negative Divergence C&H H&S Potential Island Reversal


NFLX is the biggest winner this year, up from 100 to 200 in two months time, may as well just call it a 100% gain. An amount of responsibility comes with carrying this mantle and markets in general look to Netflix for leadership. The weekly chart shows the reverse C&H bottom with the base of the cup at 50, breakout line at 120, a 70-point difference, thus, 190 is the target, achieved.  The weekly chart is clearly way overbot and negatively diverged across all indicators. The daily chart shows price on an island for the last six weeks after the gap up move.  This creates the possibility for an island reversal to occur where price will collapse back down through the gap, from 150 to 100, in a heartbeat. The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence provided for easy top-calling a couple weeks ago.

A purple H&S is in play now that targets the 150 support level which is the bottom of the island.  Netflix is topping now.  A gap fill at 205 cannot be ruled out but if price comes up the negative divergence will remain so the inevitable move down will have to occur. Keystone's 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's so 180 should lead to 220, but with any tool, especially the momo tech and biotech stocks, the 220 may not be attainable (remember AAPL only made it to 705 falling short of 720). Projection is a flat move over the coming days which leads to a sharp drop downwards at any time.  Since NFLX is the top performer this year, the roll over in Netflix may create a negative impact on the broader market. Initial downside target is 150-160. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

1 comment:

  1. I like your call here. Your post inspired me to find more bearish chart formations on it. I posted his today. http://www.learningmarkets.com/netflix-on-an-island-reversal/

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