Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 3/6/13; ADP; Factory Orders; Oil Inventories; Beige Book

A large one-foot (30 cm.) snowfall occurs here in Pennsylvania overnight.  The trees were wet so the whole scene looks like a Norman Rockwell painting, but, it will require clean-up. Chavez (Venezuela) dies and the oil markets take a quickie pop but settle back down without much effect. Venezuela now becomes a geopolitical drama moving forward.

The bulls are running, the Dow makes a new all-time record high. The S&P futures are up about five right now. The markets remain a mess of crossed signals. The ECB rate decision is tomorrow morning at this same time, only 24 hours away, so Europe may become a more intense focus. The BOJ and BOE will release guidance as well tomorrow. The low volatility paves the way for market bulls. Watch VIX 15.55. The bulls will rule and the bears will suffer as long as the VIX is under 15.55. The banks appear to be rolling over on the weekly charts so this is an interesting back drop moving forward. Stress test results are due this week and with the way everything moves in the bull's favor, the news may be joyous and perhaps the financial sector will receive a reprieve, otherwise, weak financials will not be good for the broader market.

Mortgage Applications are down for three weeks in a row, see if the data due out in a few minutes maintains the downtrend, or shows improvement.  Much of the housing data is rear-view mirror where the mortgage apps provide a better near-term read. The ADP Jobs Report will be out shortly providing insight for the Monthly Jobs report on Friday morning.  Factory Orders may create a market pivot at 10 AM.  Oil Inventories at 10:30 AM are very important since WTIC crude is trying to maintain the 90 support. The Beige Book at 2 PM will create a pivot point. The euro remains at 1.30-ish. The 10-year yield is up a couple ticks to 1.92% favoring the equity bulls by a smidge (higher yields). Copper is negative.

In light of yesterday's action with the Dow, watch the new all-time and 2013 closing high at 14253.77 and all-time intraday and 2013 high at 14286.37. In all the excitement, the SPX printed a new closing high for 2013 at 1539.79 and new intraday high for 2013 at 1543.47. For the SPX today, starting at 1540 S/R, the bulls need to touch 1544 and the upside will accelerate to test the strong 1548 resistance in quick order. The bears need to retrace yesterday's move of fifteen points, a formidable task, but not impossible, to 1525 to regain downside momo.  A move through 1526-1539 is sideways action today. VIX 15.55 and SPX 1544 are important at the bell.

Note Added 3/6/13 at 7:15 AM:  Mortgage applications jumped higher last week reversing a three-week downtrend. The lower rates are credited for the jump. The bulls are happy with the S&P's remaining up five a couple hours before the opening bell.

Note Added 3/6/13 at 8:25 AM:  ADP Jobs Report is up a strong +198.  The rumor mill is thinking the Friday jobs number will be strong and the ADP reinforces that theme. Financials are receiving a lift pre-market, copper turns positive, S&P's up +7.5. PBR is receiving some love pre-market so at least that may be a ray of sunshine as the inverse ETF's keep dropping.