NYA NYSE Composite Index Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Week MA at 15065 Dictates Cyclical Bull Versus Cyclical Bear Market

The NYA 40-week MA cross is a key metric for assessing cyclical stock market direction. It was first to indicate that the multi-month bear market was ending in November. The NYA moves above the 40-wk MA in the Fall signaling a cyclical bull market ahead. The SPX 12-month MA cross, however, the most important cyclical indicator, remained in a cyclical bear. Ditto the slope of the SPX 150-day MA a third metric. Thus, the US stock market has been in a choppy sloppy sideways malaise trying to pick a direction forward.

As March started, the NYA failed into a cyclical bear market pattern ahead so markets remain non-committal. This week, the NYA moves back above the 40-wk MA at 15065 a really big deal. Watch this closely since it tells you a lot about the direction of the US stock market going forward.

The SPX is above 4K having broken-out above the 12-mth MA at 3960 indicating a cyclical bull market ahead. The slope of the SPX 150-day MA is down so this metric signals a cyclical bear market ahead. The mixed bag continues. When the NYA 40-wk MA cross, SPX 12-mth MA cross and slope of the SPX 150-day MA all agree on the same cyclical direction, that will be the answer forward. At this minute, the NYA and SPX 12-mth are indicating cyclical bull but the SPX 150-day MA slope is saying cyclical bear.

NYA 15065 is an extremely important number. You can spend the day only watching this number and you will know more about what is happening in the stock market than someone studying a dozen other metrics. Bulls win big above NYA 15065. Bears win big below 15065. Every day that the NYA remains above the 40-wk MA is another day that says the bullish trend higher will continue for stocks. Bulls will be in trouble if NYA 15065 fails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:46 AM EST: The orgy was so much fun yesterday that all the bulls show up again today for another wild upside orgy in stocks. NYA jumps to 15241. Bulls are cheering walking around with their chests puffed-out. SPX is up to 4054.

Note Added 10:14 AM EST: NYA 15197. Bulls throw confetti as bears try to find 132 points to the downside so they can bring negativity again. The drama continues.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/31/23, at 5:30 AM EST: NYA 15201. Bulls rejoice.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/4/23, at 7:55 AM EST: Bulls are drunk on Fed wine buying anything with a heartbeat. NYA 15488. New money flows into the market for Q2.

USD US Dollar Monthly and Weekly Charts; H&S; 2-Leg Bull Flag; Diamond Pattern; Expansion (Megaphone) Pattern

The weekly and monthly charts of the US dollar are bowls of spaghetti. On the weekly chart, price has been meandering sideways. The greenback drops to 102 but is not quite at or below the prior lows in January. Therefore, an assessment on potential positive divergence cannot be made until price comes down a bit further.

The chart indicators for the weekly chart are all sloping higher but again, it is not possie d as yet since price needs to make a lower low. Positive divergence means the chart indicators are positively sloped, sloping higher, while price makes another low. It tells you that the selling is exhausted and over and the index is instead loaded-up with fuel to rocket higher. This is not the case for the dollar, at least not yet. As price slumps, the RSI may print a lower low which means the dollar will likely remain soggy and drifting lower for another week or few. The RSI has not reached oversold territory so it has room to move lower and take price lower.

If the dollar comes down to 101 or one hundo, and those thin green lines become thick possie d lines, the dollar will rally going forward. This is likely not the case, however, due to the weakness on the monthly chart.

Staying with the weekly, the blue lines show a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. The neckline is at 102 so it is all on the line these days. The head is at 113 so the difference is 11. Thus, if the neck fails at 102, the downside target is 91 (102-11). That brown channel below at 90-93 would be a landing zone should the H&S play out.

The weekly chart does not give up its hand yet on what direction it prefers going forward. Price needs to decide if it wants to drift lower (to assess the potential possie d and a rally developing on the weekly basis, or, an H&S failure resulting in a collapse lower for the Almighty buck). A look at the longer-term monthly chart may provide hints on what will happen on the weekly basis.

The monthly chart is spaghetti. Grade-school teachers would smack Keystone's knuckles with a ruler and paddle him for not coloring within the lines; he never learned his lesson. The blue lines show the 2-leg bull flag playing out over the last decade. The first leg takes the dollar from 80 to 100, or 102 if you prefer as 2017 started. This is a 20 and 22-point run for dixie. Next occurs the sideways consolidation zone that lasts from 2015 through 2020. The second leg up begins at 90 so adding 20 and 22 are targets at 110 and 112 to satisfy the bull flag. These targets occur so it is a textbook pattern.

The blue lines also show a diamond pattern during the consolidation phase. Many technicians assume the diamond will result in a move lower out the back end but she can go either way. The distance of the diamond in the middle is about 18 points so adding that to the breakout at 92 is 110; achieved.

The monthly chart also show the maroon expansion pattern, or megaphone, in progress. The megaphone tells you that 80 may be on tap for the downside in the dollar.

Note the orange stars that highlight the overextended price way above the moving average ribbon. A mean reversion was needed and the 2017 pullback is 102 down to 88 as 2018 began. The current mean reversion takes price from 113 down to 102 thus far. Price went down to test the 200-week MA in 2018. If this fractal repeats, price will drop to 88.

As the dollar stumbles sideways for 3 months on the monthly chart with the new April candlestick starting on Monday, the short red lines for the indicators are clearly weak and bleak. Dollar bears cheer while dollar bulls scowl. The indicators tell you that lower lows in the dollar price are expected going forward on the monthly basis. The RSI may dip into bear territory below 50% which is obviously more bearish for the dollar. Check the monthly chart on Monday as the new candlestick begins to see how the indicators look.

Combining the analyses above, and sprinkling some magic voodoo dust on top, the expectation is for the H&S pattern to play out so the dollar will likely trend sideways to sideways lower for many weeks and months ahead. The debt ceiling deadline will become more important with each passing week over the next 3 months and will greatly impact the dollar, rates and the stock market.

Does a collapse of the United States dollar occur a la Venezuela? Is that the plan to usher in the new Federal Reserve's CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency)? India is currently introducing its own central bank-controlled digital coin. Governments want to track and control all transactions and eliminate cash. Fight the mark of the beast with all your might. Over the last few days, Brazil and China are shaking hands in a smokey back room striking a trade deal that agrees to move away from the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. Communist China wants the world to trade in yuan and/or at least cause the demise of the US via the collapse of the dollar. Trillions of US dollars may be liquidated by governments and others in a very short time period if China has its way ushering in a Brave New World. Be very afraid. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/31/23, at 5:38 AM EST: The US dollar teases the 101-handle down to 101.75  yesterday now trading at 102.33. The drama at the H&S neckline at 102 continues. Price is deciding to bounce or die.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/4/23, at 7:53 AM EST: The US dollar drops to 101.79 continuing to tease the neckline and deciding to bounce or die. Price is making a matching low and the RSI remains possie d so the dollar bulls may be able to save the day if they send the dollar higher right away. The drama and potential H&S failure will be decided over the coming days. The tension mounts.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/5/23, at 5:41 AM EST: The US dollar drops to 101.70 and was down as low as 101.44. The battle at the H&S neckline at 102 continues. 

Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/13/23, at 8:31 PM EST: USD 100.952.

Note Added Friday Morning, 4/14/23, at 6:32 AM EST: USD drops to 100.88. The ominous H&S pattern is flexing its muscles. Euro 1.1065.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross is an excellent short-term market signal. However, like many other metrics, price is bouncing around unwilling to tip its hand. The crosses are typically cleaner like the 3/7/23 turn to the bear side for the ST. Over the last week, price crosses the SPX 60-minute chart 200 EMA at 3977 several times unwilling to commit to one direction or the other. It is an epic sword battle.

The low put/call ratios signal complacency and a top likely any day forward. Utilities have failed placing the US stock market in a crash profile currently which obviously means doom and gloom ahead on a substantive basis.

This morning, S&P futures are up +38 so Happy Days Are Here Again. A rally for a day or few would likely set up a nice top from where a big drop will begin. At 3971 to start today, the SPX will likely pop above 4K and even 4010. This will set-up the need for a back kiss since this 200 EMA is a very important ST metric. When price comes back down for the back test of 3977 (after this morning's pop) and the critical bounce or die decision occurs today or a couple days forward, the story will be told and price may finally commit one way or the other.

SPX 3977 and 3960 (12-mth MA) are two extremely important price levels you must watch closely to gauge the strength of stocks. The 50-day MA at 4013-4014 is the last chance for the bears to hold the bulls back. If the SPX overtakes the 50-day MA, an upside orgy will be underway.

Bears need a firm rejection at the 50-day MA resistance at 4013-4014 to prove that they still got game and plan to growl loudly. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:50 AM EST: The SPX pops to the 50-day MA at 4014 so the critical test of this resistance is underway. Watch NYA 15065 and price pops up through to 15085. This is a big deal and signals big upside ahead if it holds. Watch NYA 15065 and SPX 4014.

Note Added 9:54 AM EST: The SPX is at 4014. NYA is at 15079.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/30/23, at 6:30 AM EST: The SPX pops up through the 50-day MA resistance at 4014, that now becomes support, rallying to 4027. The NYA breaks above 15065 triggering the upside buying orgy. NYA 15065 tells you if the bulls have oomph going forward, or not. Back tests will be needed at SPX 4014, SPX 3977 and NYA 15065 where bounce or die decisions will occur.

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts

The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios continue languishing on the complacent side as the whipsaw choppy slop continues in the stock market. For the CPC, above 1.2 is where panic and fear is setting-in so that is when you want to nibble long. Below 0.8 is when the fearlessness and complacency are too high and you want to bring on shorts.

It has been a muddled bunch of chop suey lately. The low 0.94 represents continued complacency. The last real panic bottom was as the year began. Remember all the Wall Street big shots saying stocks would tank to begin the year and the opposite occurred? All the dimwits had to do is look at the CPC chart and see that the panic and fear was off the charts, confirming their worry, and that is the time to buy not sell. You run into the burning building while others are running away with their hair on fire. You gladly take their shares that they desperately want to get rid of but of course you tell them you must buy them cheap. Thanks, sucka.

Conversely, when everyone is complacent, like now (despite the idiot pundits professing fear and worry), you must lean-in on the short side because another big move lower is on the come. The drop a week ago was only one hundo SPX points and if you blinked you missed it. Dip-buyer's were foaming at the mouth to buy representing the ongoing complacency. It would be great to see the CPC drop further because then you know the top in the stock market is any day forward. It may be any day forward now and in fact the high 2 days ago may hold as a top.

The utilities are in failure mode placing the US stock market into a crash profile currently. The failure in the utes is bigtime predicting serious doom and gloom ahead so you must prepare for this coming mayhem. The bottom in the CPC last week hinted that the top may be at hand beginning some real ugliness but alas, stocks remain buoyant.

The SPX 2-hour chart stumbles sideways. It needs to set up with a little rally so negative divergence can set up and the top can be called. For now, the stock market keeps stumbling choppy sideways chewing up bulls and bears alike.

The moving averages are lining out sideways for the SPX so as a gauge of market direction and strength use the 50-day MA at 4014 to signal huge upside ahead and the 200-day MA at 3931 to signal the start of blood and carnage. The choppy slop and stock market noise continues through 3931-4014.

Remain leery of the stock market and stay nimble. It would be great to see a rally in stocks since that can set up the top and the start of the big drop that is likely coming. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary algorithm, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side yesterday at SPX 3984 but do not hold your breath since it may flip short today. The crazy year of choppy slop continues with Q1 almost in the bag.

Use VIX 21.05 as the stock market rudder. It is bullish now at 20.69 in real-time. Bears need VIX over 21.05 to start trouble. If the VIX remains below 21.05, and the SPX above 3960, the bulls will remain in control of the stock market. If the VIX moves above 21.05, and then the SPX loses 3960, there will be blood and carnage. Choose your poison.

Keybot the Quant

MJ Marijuana ETF 2-Hour Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence

Keystone likes the set-up with the pot stocks for the long side and is currently holding MJ, TLRY and ACB long. The next few days will be interesting since MJ displays positive divergence across all indicators (green lines) in the 2-hour, daily and weekly time frames. If pot stocks are going to rally after their long beating, it should begin now.

The green falling wedge pattern and the overbot stochastics are bullish. Price is extended below the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion higher. The bottom band is violated so the middle band at 3.59 and upper band at 3.70 are on the table when/if she bounces.

There are lots of marijuana stocks to smoke, er, play. The pot plays are; TLRY, MJ, CRON, SNDL, ACB, VRNOF, TCNNF, GTBIF, IIPR, SMG, GRWG, CRLBF, GRWG, VFF, OGI, CURLF, CLVR and MAPS. You would have to look at the charts to see if they are set up with possie d and if so, across what time frames so you can plan a potential trade.

Perhaps there is one more positive in this arena, actually two more. Pot stocks are already beaten down hard. They have been rode hard and put away wet. Marijuana plays have been worked-over in the alleyway behind the dumpster and are now lying on the cold cement in garbage juice and an oil spot. If the broad market falls apart, the pot stocks may be hit less since they are already in Hades.

Second, the pot industry in the US is a cash business not involving the banks to a great extent so it is almost insulated from the bank trouble. Folks are going to keep smokin', er, vaping, their pot all day long in recessions or good times. Humorously, people will probably toke more weed in the coming recession, perhaps toking with a trucker out of Philly that is heading west from the Cumberland Gap. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly and Daily Charts; Battle for Cyclical Market Control Continues at the Critical 12-Mth MA at 3960

The drama continues with the critical SPX 12-month MA at 3960 which decides if the US stock market will remain in the 1-year cyclical bear market pattern, or, if a new cyclical bull market will begin above 3960.

Price is at 3949 so the bears are cheering and S&P futures have slumped-over to the downside now off -12 points. You know the drill by now. The 12-mth MA at 3960 is for all the marbles.

If price falls, watch the critical 10-mth MA at 3921-3924 that identifies the cliff-edge where traders take One Last Breath before collapsing into the abyss.

Bulls win big above 3960 that indicates buoyant stocks ahead. Bears win below 3960 and will create blood and carnage on Wall Street below 3921-3924. It's fun.

Use the important moving averages as support/resistance going forward to gauge the strength, or weakness, of the path ahead.

50-day MA 4014
200 EMA on the 60-minute 3980
20-wk MA 3976
50-wk MA 3966
100-day MA 3961
12-mth MA 3960 decides cyclical market direction
20-day MA 3955
Price is at 3949
200-day 3933
150-day MA 3924
10-mth MA 3922

The SPX daily chart is shown above with the moving averages lining out sideways along with price exhibiting the sideways symmetrical triangle development.  Yesterday's candlestick shadows clearly show the bulls and bears each exploring their limits. Bulls win big above 4014 since it is all clear skies above. Bears win below 3924 since there is nothing but darkness in the abyss. Between 3924 and 4014 is choppy sloppy noise.

Note the slope of the 150-day MA an important cyclical market signal. The 1-year cyclical bear market is on full display with the 150-day MA falling but in January, as stocks rallied, the 150 came to life heading higher indicating that a cyclical bull may be starting but alas, the pink 150-day MA line slumps-over and drops again, sloping lower, signaling that the 1-year cyclical bear market remains in place.

By definition, the SPX needs to be under the 150-day MA at 3924 to keep pulling the moving average lower guaranteeing bearish pain ahead.

Looking at the moving average S/R, you can see a cluster above at 3955-3966 so this is the gauntlet of overhead resistance the bulls must overcome. The cluster at 3922-3924 is the last gauntlet of support with Hades below. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:37 AM EST: Stocks are off and stumbling for an hour. The SPX falls at the opening bell testing 3933 support, and falls through so the test of 3922-3924 was next and it gives way. Dip-buyers cannot be deterred, however, so price quickly recovers and battles at the critical 3922-3924 S/R. Price is at 3936 so the the support below is holding. Copper remains buoyant so the bulls wear this feather proudly in their caps.

Note Added 11:24 AM EST: Whoopsies, daisies. Price falls through 3922-3924 support again now stumbling around at 3919. Blink your eyes and the SPX pops above 3924. The stock market battleground is obviously at 3922-3924 today.

Note Added 11:28 AM EST: SPX 3923.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 3/25/23, at 8:39 AM EST: The battle continued on Friday with the SPX busting up through 3960 at about 2:30 PM EST in the afternoon. Then a dip back below at 3 PM, but then back above 3960 for the closing bell. It is a broken record but the choppy slop continues this year. The bears could not gain downside traction because copper remains buoyant. Bulls could not run away to the upside because volatility remains bearish. Bulls win big if the SPX remains above 3960 and if the VIX drops below 21.08. Bears win big if the VIX remains above 21.08 and the SPX falls below 3960.

EDIT Editas Medicine Weekly Chart; Falling Wedge; Oversold; Positive Divergence

Editas is an attractive long set-up. What's that, Sonny? Adidas? No, Editas. Is that a shoe? Nope. EDIT is set up with universal positive divergence across all indicators on the weekly, daily and 2-hour charts. It is loaded up with rocket fuel ready to launch. Will it catapult skyward or blow up on the pad? The oversold stochastics are agreeable to a rally ditto the falling green wedge pattern.

The bottom standard deviation band may be tagged at 6.87 so it can be given a little bit of rope before ditching it if it continues lower. The low in January was solid with universal possie d so it is surprising that she slumped over and put in lower lows in price; the January low would have been expected to hold. Maybe there was some negative news that hit it 7 weeks ago.

EDIT will be interesting to watch. Keystone bot it yesterday looking for the possie d launch to occur and may add going forward. It will be tough for longs to gain traction as the overall stock market remains directionless and choppy. Will EDIT be the medicine that the bullish doctor ordered or will it be Poison in the Well? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant flips back to the short side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3936 but do not blink since the algorithm may whipsaw again today or tomorrow. 2023 is a choppy whipsaw mess thus far.

The critical SPX 3960 and VIX 21.06 are all that matter. Both create negativity yesterday. The VIX is trading at 21.73 early Friday morning on US East Coast so the bears remain happy. S&P futures are up +18 so the bulls cheer since this would send the SPX cash index back above the critical 3960. This year's chop suey whipsaw action continues. Whip it good.

Keybot the Quant

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utilities Weekly Downtrend and Ongoing 50-Wk MA Failure Forecasts Major Trouble Ahead for Stock Market

The trouble with the utilities continues a harbinger of doom and gloom for the United States stock market. Utes are key as per Norm Fosback's technical work decades ago. As Keystone has explained many times, most recently with the 2/20/23 trap-door and 3/2/23 UTIL charts, the 50-wk MA and the weekly uptrend dictated by the closing price 15 weeks ago are the two key parameters. When they fail, the stock market will begin collapsing bigtime either coincidentally or within 2 months. Trouble, as Ray laments.

The 50-week MA is at 967 moving sideways lower. Price is down at the 909 palindrome a far way away from 967. The blue circle shows the closing price from 15 weeks ago and with price down at 909; the utilities are obviously in a weekly downtrend which is bad news for US stocks.

You can do the 15-week lookback comparisons on the chart to see that the weekly downtrend started 4 weeks ago. Thus, both utility parameters are negative for a month so the stock market is in prime shape to begin dropping a huge way. The utility negative signal is not for a run of the mill pullback in stocks. It is the big enchilada, the kahuna; it tells you that a really big move lower for stocks is at hand.

If you want to remain bullish and not lose your money during the weeks ahead, you desperately need UTIL to regain the two metrics above as fast as possible. The purple box shows that all the closing prices that will be used for the 15-week lookback and trend assessment are above 960. The 50-wk is 967 so take a big purple crayon and draw a thick line across the chart at 960-967. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste the best.

The chart indicators are mixed. The oversold and possie d stochastics create the rally in utes last week but the MACD and money flow remain weak and bleak preferring to see more soggy prices ahead.

The low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios verify the excessive complacency and fearlessness in the stock market. Traders, analysts, pundits and the shoeshine boy are all worried about stocks proclaiming fear but 10 minutes later they are buying stocks. This behavior jives with the utes and forecasts some serious gloom and doom ahead.

With Powell on tap, stocks may rally strongly which will create great opportunities to short into, or, Jerome may lay an egg today and begin the pending market turmoil. Bulls must focus on UTIL above 960 like a laser beam it is the only way they can save the day and prevent blood and carnage over the next few weeks.

The failure with utilities indicate that the SPX is going to fall a long ways from current levels for several weeks forward (hundreds of points lower). Keep your guard up. Be nimble my friend. Like water. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 3/23/23, a palindrome day, 32323, at 8:10 AM EST: UTIL collapses to 890. That's ugly. Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight.

Note Added Friday Morning, 3/24/23, at 4:05 AM EST: UTIL collapses to 882 with a LOD at 877 not seen since last October 5 months ago. It's All Over Now Baby Blue.