Coronavirus (COVID-19) New Cases Chart; United States Reports Highest Daily New Virus Cases Ever on 10/23/20

It is a sad day. The United States reports the highest daily new virus cases ever on 10/23/20 at 81,210 new cases according to the Worldometer data that is typically ahead of the Johns-Hopkins data by a few days. This dreadful daily tally exceeds the prior 7/23/20 new cases high at 79,012. It's an 8-handle now. It may run to a 9-handle and then a heinous 100K new cases per day. All you can do is pray at this point. President Trump says, "We're rounding the corner." Yes, we are, around the corner driving head-on into a Mack truck. With new cases and active cases at record highs in America, the outlook for the economy is dire. Europe is in bad shape as well which hints at a long cold winter ahead.

President Trump berates folks wearing masks, and in fairness, the jury remains out as to how helpful masks actually are at preventing the virus, as well as the societal and mental impacts of wearing mouth-coverings which are dehumanizing, however, the coronavirus pandemic is an all-hands-on-deck situation where everyone has to do what they can to stop the spread of the virus and must be encouraged by public officials representing this behavior and providing sound, organized advice.

Instead, America remains in chaos and confusion with citizens not knowing if you are supposed to wear a mask, or not, like the president, and when, and how far to socially distance. The US forgot how to take control of a situation. The pandemic leadership and direction remains a complete mess and, now that the daily new cases are at record highs and climbing, the virus is spinning out of control.

It is an interesting backdrop into the 11/3/20 presidential election, that pits republican President Donald Trump, that wants reelected, against democrat former Vice President Joe Biden; two corrupt silver-haired white guys. Is the coronavirus pandemic President Trump's Waterloo? We will know in 10 days.

Note Added Sunday, 10/25/20: Article 23 in the ongoing Coronavirus (COVID-19) series is published.

SQ Square Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Square has catapulted higher since the March bottom a huge move from 32 to 193+, or +500%; a six-bagger. The payment space is very active the last few months. CEO Jack Dorsey sleeps on bags of money wearing headphones that are playing ka-ching songs. However, all good things come to an end and SQ is singing its swan song on the weekly chart above. The rising wedge is ominous since the collapses from these patterns can be quite dramatic. The RSI, stochastics and money flow are at or coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback.

The red lines clearly show universal negative divergence across all chart indicators. There is no more fuel in the tank to take price higher. The MACD rolls over, however, price barely makes a matching high as compared to the prior two weeks, thus, price may try to come up again in the days ahead but that would only reinforce the MACD neggie d and lock in the top. A short the rallies mentality is prudent going forward. At the same time, watch out for a momentum stock like this, they can be difficult to short sometimes. You have to get a good entry by watching the hourly charts.

Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower. SQ has violated the upper standard deviation band so a trip back to the middle band at 140, and rising, and 86, and rising, is on the table. The Aroon is at maximum bullishness the green line pegged in overbot territory and the red line completely in the cellar at zero. Traders cannot get more bulled-up on Square.

So the top is in on the weekly but interestingly, if you pull up the SQ monthly chart, you see a long and strong MACD line and the other indicators are sloping up in the near term (although neggie d over the last 2 to 3 years). Thus, after the multi-week decline, price should come up again for another matching high in the monthly time frame. So mixing the analyses together and sprinkling on some magic technical voodoo dust, SQ is topping out now on the weekly basis and will head lower for a few weeks. The drop will likely take it to the 130-160 congestion zone. Then, after, say a month or so of sogginess plays out, we will be in mid-November going into Thanksgiving, SQ will likely rally again and come back up to the current 175-195 area, say, in December. That will likely be THE top for Square and then multiple months of downside will follow. Of course the monthly chart will have to be monitored at month-end and then for the end of November to verify this path, or adjust it slightly.

Keystone does not hold a position in SQ currently but will entertain the notion to short it going forward. Taking a look at the SQ 2-hour chart, it is actually setting up to rally in the near-term. SQ will bottom in a few hours, probably today, and then rally back up probably to 184-ish. Daily remains weak and bleak. Thus, a nice short entry may appear on Monday and Tuesday after price bounces for a few hours say today into Monday. The daily chart wants more downside in its time frame and the weekly is cooked as discussed above. Thus, if she begins falling in earnest, the rising wedge negativity may kick in and the bottom could fall out for SQ at anytime. If you enjoyed big profits in SQ, scale yourself out over the next couple months such as selling one-quarter of the position today, and then another at the end of this month, then another in early November and then the last before Thanksgiving. A lot depends on how bad this selling will be on the weekly basis. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Double-Top (M-Top)

It's cooked. Stick a fork in it. Crispy-fried. The SPX weekly chart is in full on bear mode now, however, as usual, happy talk will try and save the day. The ongoing nauseating fiscal stimulus saga drags on with Trump, Pelosi, Mnuchin and McConnell mud-wrestling each other. No one actually cares about common Americans; they care about their political futures and are progressing the stimulus bill based on each individual's interest.

Humorously, analyst such as Mike Wilson at MS, say any oncoming slog in stocks, over the next three weeks, is a buying opportunity for the next rally since a stimulus bill will be coming. That's just it. Everybody and his brother knows a stimulus bill is coming after the election mess ends 11/3/20 if it does end on Election Day. The fiscal stimulus may be priced-in to equities already; everybody knows and expects stimulus. What happens when folks are waiting for the so-called buying opportunity but are cut off at the knees each time they attempt to enter the stock market long? The stock market is a short the rallies scenario not buy the dips.

The SPX monthly chart is also topped out with neggie d. The MACD line is trying to poke higher and there are 7 trading days to play out in October. If the SPX weekly creates its spankdown as the neggie d suggests, the MACD on the monthly chart can easily be neggie d at the end of the month which means the stock market has topped-out not only on the weekly basis but the long-term monthly basis and likely couple-year or more basis. If the MACD remains that hair higher on the monthly chart, the stock market will top out on a long-term basis in the November-December time frame instead of now. This is a far different analysis than Wall Street is telling you, isn't it? Well, do you feel lucky punk? Will you get blown into the water by holding long positions through the pending downfall, or, will you be able to walk away unscathed?

The weekly chart above clearly shows universal negative divergence for the double-top or M-Top in play (red lines). There is no more gas in the tank to take stocks higher. The maroon lines show the last top Keystone called due to the neggie d but, if you remember, the long and strong MACD line (green) was still in play wanting price to come back up again for one more matching or higher high. That is what the SPX did last week. Now, the red lines show the MACD went neggie d so the top is in on the weekly basis.

Price did not tag the upper band but it was close. The center band, the 20-week MA, is at 3297 and rising and serves as a downside target, call it 3300. The CCI is overbot agreeable to a pullback. The Aroon lines are overbot, the green line above 70 and red line near zero, so watch for a negative cross as the selling gains steam.

Mnuchin and Pelosi are doing the two-step dance playing their crony capitalism baby games. If a stimulus bill is announced, price may spike to that upper standard deviation band at 3584 but the expectation would be that the chart simply sets up with neggie d again in a week or two (the top is just delayed a week or two). 

It is remarkable how ignorant folks are about the ongoing escalation in the coronavirus pandemic. It is very possible that the United States will fall into a funk like February/March/April with the virus. Obviously, the hit to the economy would sink stocks. The Fed is at the end of the line. This is evidenced by the Fed members asking for fiscal stimulus help from Congress. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

XLY Consumer Discretionary Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Consumer discretionary stocks have seen their day in the sun. The XLY ETF is a moon shot off the March low and obviously that is due to Scamazon (online shopping) its largest holding. AMZN, HD, MCD, NKE, LOW, SBUX, TGT, BKNG, TJX and DG are the top holdings in XLY. Home Depot and Lowe's have been hot as people stuck at home make repairs and finally paint those yellow, cigarette-stained walls. If the XLY is topping-out on the weekly basis, that means the top holdings are as well, or at least most of them.

The XLY has overbot RSI and stochastics agreeable to a pullback. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since the collapses from that apex can be quite quick and dramatic. The red liens show universal neggie d across all indicators sans the MACD which is trying to sneak higher by a hair. The other indicators want a smackdown now on the weekly basis but the MACD is trying to hold the door open to price coming back up after only a week or two stutter-step and then placing the top a couple weeks out. At any rate, XLY should begin trailing lower for multiple weeks. If you enjoyed the party on the long side, call a cab and get out of there before the fights begin and the cops arrive.

The Aroon is at maximum uber euphoric bullishness; it is impossible to get more bullish. The green bull line is pegged at 1 hundo and the red bear line is in the cellar at zero. Both will move to the center eventually creating a negative cross. Price has violate the upper band so the middle band at 139 and lower band at 121, both rising, are on the table.

On the XLY monthly chart, it is cooked except for the MACD line still sloping higher. Thus, the negative divergence on the monthly and the neggie d on the weekly will spank price lower for several weeks but XLY should come up again a month or two out. Perhaps there is a big stock market pullback but then the dip-buyer's rush into AMZN and other high-flyer's again driving price up for one last time in the monthly time frame. So the jury is out on the monthly. Let the several weeks of downside play out and see where the charts are at. Like the stock market as a whole, there is a major top occurring now that will last months if not years. XLY will top out last since it has the high-flyers but most indexes and sectors should be cooked between now and January and after that sadness for bulls follows for a long time.

Keystone does not hold XLY long or short. Let's look at the daily and see what is going on. It tops out with negative divergence clear as a bell. It appears the downside has started and is in progress. That little hair of a high in the MACD on the weekly chart above may not matter and on the first print this morning it may be neggie d and cooked (so the top in XLY on the daily and weekly basis is now). The daily is likely targeting the 147-149 area as support then 140-142. Shorting the rallies in XLY going forward is a prudent idea.

Interestingly, it goes against what 99% of Wall Street which is telling you to buy, buy, buy! Strategas Analyst Chris Verrone appears on Bloomberg minutes ago telling clients to buy consumer discretionary stocks with both hands. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

GOLD Daily Chart; Downward-Sloping Channel; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

Gold enjoys a summer orgy running from 1800 to nearly 2100 in only three weeks. However, the US dollar stabilizes and rumors of Uncle Buck's demise are greatly exaggerated. The dollar charts remain agreeable to higher prices which would send gold and the stock market lower. The dollar rocket launched in March sending equities, gold and silver into Hades. Perhaps that fractal repeats? Traders remain uber complacent and fearless which occurs at stock market tops.

Gold gives up the gains in the summer dropping to 1850 in September now at 19 hundo. The chart indicators do not say anything. They stagger sideways like Uncle Charlie at his birthday party last week. The red downward-sloping channel is in play with lots of touches on the top and bottom rails adding to its credibility. Price is testing the upper red trend line now and deciding if it should drop back down to the lower rail again at 1800-1825.

The light blue sideways symmetrical triangle is in play. The vertical side of the small triangle is a hundo points. Gold is at the apex of the triangle and has to make a decision up or down, thus, gold bulls want to see 2000-ish while gold bears are looking for 1800-ish. For a larger triangle, it would have been better to see price come down for a touch of the lower light blue trend line in August. But nonetheless, simply looking at some numbers, the vertical side of the triangle in early August is almost 3 hundo points. Keep that in mind. Once price starts rolling in a certain direction, up or down, the move may not be 100 points but rather 200 or 300.

The purple arrows show the tight standard deviation bands that squeeze-out huge price moves. Tight bands forecast a big move on the come but do not predict direction. Think of it as a tube of toothpaste that you smash down on with your fist. A huge stream of toothpaste flies out but you have no idea what direction the mess is headed. In July, the squeeze was up creating that huge rally. In September, the squeeze was down. The bands are squeezing in tight again so a big move is coming, likely the 100+ move discussed above.

The direction likely depends on the US dollar and as mentioned in the first paragraph, the dollar is expected to move higher, and perhaps rapidly, tanking gold and stocks. The dark blue lines show support at the 1800-1825 congestion zone which is a logical landing area for price should it break lower out of the triangle. The green lines show the upside breakout from the triangle targeting the 1980-2020 range at strong price resistance levels.

The expectation is for gold and stocks to move lower as the dollar moves higher. If you bring up the gold weekly chart, you see a weak and bleak MACD line and money flow wanting to see another lower low after price bounced the last three weeks. This would be sub 1850. The critical 20-week MA support is at 1879. Pay attention to this. If it fails, turn out the lights the party's over as Willie would opine. 

On the gold monthly, the MACD line remains elevated with a slight slope higher. This hints that after a few more weeks of sogginess, gold will want to try to come back up again. There is likely lots of sideways stuff ahead for gold through 1750-2000 for the next few months. Keystone is not holding any gold positions currently long or short. Gold is trading at 1911. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

PTON Peloton Weekly Chart; Parabolic Price Move; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

Peloton is cycling higher. Go Peloton's! Where's Peloton Girl? Keystone has posted the PTON chart a couple times this year. A short trade worked a couple months ago and then the idea was to wait for the MACD to negatively diverge on the weekly chart to know the multi-week top is in. Until then, it is a no-touch. Over the last month, price goes parabolic. That's why you always have to wait for all the chart indicators to go neggie d before you know the top is in. The bulls are enjoying big gains.

The further strength in the stock sends the RSI and histogram higher so the party rages on. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's seek 2's so the breach of the 70-80 level was key and hinted that 120-130 was likely. Once PTON started higher, shorts panic and cover creating a further bid and more shorts panicking. Also, the earnings are better than expected and there were more people signing up but that may have had something to do with other family members becoming interested.

Keystone opined last year if Peloton would become a cult stock like TSLA. It looks like the jury has returned the verdict which is yes. A lot of investors believe in the stock. There are only three distribution weeks this year and look at all that insane buying the last couple months; its under accumulation. Why would anyone buy a $4K stationary bicycle and pay $60 a month that turns into a clothes hanger in three months when they can go to Walmart and buy a $100 stationary bike and use that as a clothes hanger in the master bedroom?

It's comical. At least with Tesla, it is a useful automobile and you can see how it would have sales well into the future. The sales may not be what investors expect but that is another story. With Peloton, that has to be a finite consumer audience. First, folks that actually want to get in shape would be interested, not the stereotypical potato chip-eating, beer-swigging, belly-scratching American. Then you have to have the big bucks for all this fancy whiz-bang gadgetry; a computer screen that will probably malfunction at some point. Aside from the high-cost and desire for men to look chiseled like Chuck Norris (he hawks a different exercise product) and ladies to have the body of Peloton Girl from last year's television ad, you have to have a big house to position fancy exercise equipment. Uncle Frank and his friend Louise could not fit a Peloton into their double-wide. Emma, that wants to get into shape, does not want to lug the bicycle up five flights of stairs to her small apartment in the Bronx and then carry it around each time she moves.

The investment houses believe they know more and expect everyone and his bro to own a Peloton. Ned Williams, that lives in a cottage in a senior living community with a central clubhouse, is thinking of buying a Peloton so the kids and grandchildren visit more. Ned thinks if he places stuff in boxes and piles those higher, he may be able to squeeze the Peloton between the furnace door and litter box. Ned has to put off his purchase though since he neither has the up front capital cost or the money to pay a monthly fee. The Peloton cost seems out of reach for many people and you wonder how long until the novelty wears off of having some overweight teacher yelling at you to peddle faster.

The RSI will be cooked over the next week. Watch the histo and MACD to see when they roll over when price makes another high, perhaps two weeks out. When all the indicators go neggie d which will likely be between now and early November, a multi-week down move will begin for Peloton. The 70-90 range would be a downside target say for Nov-Jan but give it a week or so to see if that MACD goes neggie d. Wait until you see the white of its eyes. It is getting very close. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/20/20: CNBC business television commentator Jim Cramer says PTON, NFLX, ZM, ROKU, PYPL, TSLA and SQ will all move higher until the coronavirus pandemic is brought under control. That is a gutsy call saying these stocks will continue moving higher for the next few months.

SMH Semiconductor ETF Weekly Chart; Oversold; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; PriceExtended

The SMH is the semiconductor ETF. The SOX chart was posted the other day and the SMH, SOX and XSD charts and technical analysis is basically all the same. Chips ahoy! The semi's launch higher this year riding the covid virus wave and with more waves of pandemic misery on the way, surf's up! When the country was in lockdown, companies flocked to ZM and other platforms to conduct business via video conferencing. People spend stimulus money on worthless Scamazon products sending AMZN to the moon. There is an immediate greater need for technology in business, teaching, learning, meeting, talking and shopping applications and more.. Folks are sequestered at home.

Einstein traders then surmise that all that technology needs chips; and that is correct. In March, investors begin tripping over each other to buy the chips. SMH catapults from 95 to 190 a huge +100% gain; a double. Birds are singing. Harps are playing. Dogs and cats are living together in harmony. However, if business is slow and employees are sh*t-canned, those workers are no longer on Zoom, they are not shopping as much on Scamazon, they are ignoring app and other offerings from Sapple, you get the idea.

People forget about recessions as the years move forward and instead base their future plans on what is happening in the present. That is the mistake individuals and businesses make all the time. Garbage in, garbage out. You have to picture an economy with a lot of people out of work and the people still employed being told to sit in their cubicle and work or they are next out the door. When folks are unemployed, are they going to buy new 5G iPhones for over a grand from Apple that only performs like your existing smartphone since the 5G infrastructure is not in place? Sapple thinks you plan to since they are cranking-out 80 million or more of those puppies right now ready for your Christmas stocking that has holes in it. Products and services fall off in a recession as budgets tighten. Next month, folks will say the chips are down, figuratively and literally.

SMH is overbot with neggie d across all the indicators; she's topping-out right now on the weekly. If you pull up the XSD you can see the MACD a hair higher so the bulls are trying to extend the top but that would only be a week or so. The chips are in prime shape to top here and begin a multi-week down move.

Price has tagged the upper band so the middle band at 165 and lower band at 142, both rising, are on the table. Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean revision lower. The Aroon lines are maximum possible euphoric bullishness; it is impossible for SMH to become anymore bullish (sentiment-wise). There's nowhere to go but down. The ADX shows that the move up is a strong trend (pink box) so that is the one metric the bears will have to roll over to the downside but it usually lags slightly. Everything else on the chart is bearish.

Semi's received the latest thrust higher on some deal-making. XLNX exploded higher two weeks ago. With the pandemic increasing again, there may be a further run into chips but many investors have already placed hefty long positions willing to hold a long time. Semi's fall super sharp and fast when they give up the ghost and the rising wedge says that fall off the cliff is coming anytime. Keystone has been scaling into semiconductor shorts. If you enjoy big profits on the chips, even little ones, scale-out going forward. The drop in March was from 155 to 95, a -40% flush in only 5 weeks. The jury is out on the monthly charts that may be open to price coming back up again after the multi-week selloff. There will be time to study that later. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NFLX Netflix Monthly and Weekly Charts; Channels; Rising Wedge; Triple-Top; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violations; Netflix Topping-Out on Long-Term Basis

Netflix is one of the big winners this year off the covid pandemic. One person's misery is another person's joy. When the US went into lockdown in March/April, NFLX bottomed at 290-ish and rocket-launched to 570+ in only about 14 weeks (3-1/2 months); a humungous +97% gain, a double (green circles on weekly chart). The September 2019 bottom is at 260 and produced a +120% gain in only about 38 weeks (9 months).

Sticking with the weekly, the red line for price shows a triple-top in play. There's an old Wall Street adage that there is no such thing as a triple-top. The insinuation is that triple tops always resolve with price moving higher from the third bump which then eliminates the triple top. However, Keystone does not subscribe to this philosophy since over the years after watching thousands of charts, it is more of a 50/50 proposition that the triple-top holds.

The red lines clearly show universal negative divergence so price does not have anymore strength to move higher in the weekly time frame. With the coronavirus pandemic on the rise again and trouble ahead for the US, folks will turn to Netflix again, but haven't they already seen all that boring programming once already? NFLX tagged the upper band so the middle band at 487 and lower band at 417, and rising, are on the table. Price moves through the blue channel all summer long into Fall and a drop out of that range will tell you that the rout is on. The brown channel may be the likely destination over the next year or so.

The monthly chart was mentioned a couple posts back. The NDXA150R, Keystone's bet-the-farm on the short side indicator (for Nasdaq and tech stocks), topped-out at an elevated 94% basically guaranteeing pain and misery ahead. In the monthly time frame, NFLX is topping-out first and will be followed by FB, AAPL and AMZN and then GOOGL and MSFT. All these big shots are singing their swan song and topping-out on a long-term basis between now and January. This will surprise a lot of people, or, actually will surprise everyone, since market participants remain universally euphorically bullish worshipping the Fed's unlimited and enduring power. The central bankers are the market, until they aren't.

The red lines on the monthly chart show the ominous red rising wedge pattern. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The red lines for the indicators show universal neggie d agreeable to a spankdown occurring and a long-term (months and years) top being placed for the stock. The MACD and money flow are trying to gather up some juice to try and extend the top but they should not amount to much. Their attempt at moving higher in the near term (last couple months) is due to investors believing in the coronavirus stay-at-home bullishness. Traders do not want to give up on the stock especially with the COVID-19 third wave now lapping at American shores.

The upper band is violated on the monthly so the middle band at 384 and lower band at 227 are on the table. Don't laugh. In a couple years, NFLX may be in the 120 to 320 range; it will not be surprising at all. If you remain long, you will not be laughing then. As a serious recession takes hold and more people are sh*t-canned from their jobs, household budgets are slashed. The significant others will sit at the kitchen table with wobbly legs, both their own and the table's, and trim the monthly expenses. Guess what gets cut first to save money that is needed to buy food, pay rent and utilities and try to keep up on insurances? Yes, the monthly fees for apps, cable television, radio, etc... 

As the weeks and months play out and the US slips deeper into a covid recession, many families will ditch or reduce services with NFLX, AAPL, GOOGL, CMCSA, and the list goes on, HULU, DIS, there are so many platforms now each with their hand in people's pocket but many of these services will be ditched because people will need the money to buy some hot pockets to eat.

Keystone wrote an article last year to help millennials and other young folks prepare for a recession. It is never too late to prepare and at least open your eyes to what is coming down the pike. The 1980-1982 Great Recession, the worst economic pullback since the Great Depression, changed Keystone's life forever. The coming weeks and months will change many of you young folk's lives forever. The article received widespread international acclaim; "Clueless Millennials Must Prepare Financially, Mentally and Emotionally for the Coming Recession; A PSA (Public Service Announcement) for Millennials Explaining the Ugly Realities of Economic Recession." Bruce Springsteen's The River was the theme song for the early 80's hard times; you young folks will develop your own theme song/s over the coming year or two.

These are historic and life-changing times. The US stock market is placing a major top as the year plays out. Plan accordingly. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 10/20/20: CNBC business television commentator Jim Cramer says NFLX, PTON, ZM, ROKU, PYPL, TSLA and SQ will all move higher until the coronavirus pandemic is brought under control. That is a gutsy call saying these stocks will continue moving higher for the next few months.

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The BPSPX is on a double-whammy buy signal after it crossed above the 70% level. The Keystone Speculator's BPSPX Indicator focuses on the 70% level and the six percentage-point reversals. The BPSPX sits at 71.20. The high print is at 72.00.

The bulls remain on easy street as long as the BPSPX remains above 70. A move above 72 would signal party time for bulls. The stock market will be soggy and rolling over lower if the 70 level fails. The bears, however, will not achieve downside momentum and sustainable selling in the stock market until the price falls below 66 (72-6). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

AMZN Amazon Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended; High-Flying Tech Stocks Such as NDX, AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOGL, MSFT and NFLX are Placing Long-Term Market Tops

Amazon is the unmatched juggernaut over the last decade. King Bezos sits on a golden throne and sleeps on bags of money. Lazy humans want everything delivered nowadays since they view their time important. The malls are ghost towns as shopping online is now fully embraced in society. Social internet using the Facebook, Twitter and Google (Alphabet) platforms is accepted among the population. The stocks delivering technology lead the way. It's a Brave New World.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic hits at the start of this year creating economic destruction in its wake. Restaurants are going bankrupt. Small businesses, forced to close, are now belly-up. Large chain stores, like WMT, where the wealthy elite own stock, are protected and the population is told to use these stores more. Isn't crony capitalism great? Ma and Pa go under. Amazon is a big winner due to the covid pandemic. The AMZN price move is parabolic this year.

The purple arrows show the tight standard deviation bands that forecast a big move pending but do not predict direction. Both tight band squeezes, the one in 2015 and the other in 2019, shot price higher. What's not to like, right? Wrongo. Amazon, like so many other charts, is placing its long-term top (months and years). Every talking head on Wall Street says Bezos is king and let the Amazon cash register ring; go long. The long-term tops in the US stock market are all that more guaranteed since no one sees them coming. And rock 'n roll, not Bezos, is king.

The AMZN monthly chart above is the same chart and technical analysis for NDX, FB and AAPL. 

The red lines show the negative divergence across all indicators except the MACD line (green). Price is out of gas to the upside except for some MACD fumes in the fuel tank. The red candlestick for last month, September, appeared because price prints a matching high and the indicators were all negatively diverged. AMZN receives the neggie d spankdown, however, it does not have much juice lower due to the long and strong MACD that wants price to come up one more time on the monthly basis.

The uber high MACD readings are consistent for all the tech high-flyers. These MACD levels are unheard of; nosebleed heights. The MACD has nowhere to go but down. However, for that MACD line to come down, AMZN may need a jog move in price (one month down and then one month back up). This would then create neggie d for the MACD and the long-term top would be cast in concrete. Thus, AMZN begins falling anytime and moves sideways to sideways lower for months and perhaps a couple years or more forward, or, price chops sideways this month, and in November and tops out on the long-term basis late November or December. At any rate, the swan song for Amazon, and NDX, AAPL and FB, is playing in the background. Every market enthusiast leaps from their computer chair, the squeaky chair with arm pads held together with masking tape, shouting, "Blasphemy!" Well, don't kill the messenger.

Why would Scamazon sell off? Maybe it is simply priced to perfection with current and future goodness worked into the numbers. Maybe the increased business due to covid is already priced in. Maybe no one has thought about the extra costs that come with more business. More employees, more problems. How about Congress? The politicians have declared open season on Silicon Valley nerds in fleece vests. Companies like AMZN, FB, GOOGL, TWTR and others have red bullseyes on their backs and will serve as Congressional whipping-boy's in the future. Also, price is obviously over extended a long time and requires a mean reversion lower.

The Aroon displays the ole Wall Street adage that 'markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent'. The green bull line is overbot but this has continued for a decade; ditto the red bear line that is oversold for a decade. If shorting AMZN, you would have lost your shirt long ago. However, those lines will cross in the future which portends bad things ahead for Bezos's billions.

Price has violated the upper standard deviation line so the middle band at 2243, and rising is on the table; ditto the lower band at 1066. Don't laugh. Price will eventually return to below the 200-month MA. The pink box shows the ADX verifying that Amazon is in a strong trend higher from 2016 through 2019. The road is more difficult now and despite the parabolic move higher in price this year, the ADX is not impressed and still trying to decide if it wants to call it a strong trend, or not. The brown circles show the distribution months and they have been relatively consistent over the years. Investors do not want to give this stock up; which means that when it begins falling, it may fall hard.

If you enjoyed big profits in any of the tech stocks, most with the same chart set-up as above, scale yourself out. It would be best to simply sell and walk away but if you remain bullish, sell one-third of these tech positions now, one-third as November begins and the last third at Thanksgiving. Keystone is not shorting any of the tech stocks mentioned above although is scaling into short positions in semiconductors.

Also of interest is the tickers not mentioned above; GOOGL, MSFT and NFLX. The GOOGL and MSFT monthly charts are the same as AMZN above, however, their MACD lines are not up in the stratosphere but instead still ramping higher. This hints that Google (Alphabet) and Mr Softy will top out a little bit after Amazon, the NDX, Facebook and Apple. For NFLX, it is cooked on the monthly chart right now. Ditto the weekly chart. You can short NFLX stock here forward.

You are watching a  historic long-term top play out in the stock market between now and EOY and perhaps a bit into January or so. How cool is that? We have traveled to the mountaintop, as Martin Luther would opine, enjoy the view because it will not last long. NFLX leads down now on the monthly basis followed by NDX, AMZN, AAPL and FB, and then followed by GOOGL and MSFT all likely topping out by the end of the year and then trailing lower for months and perhaps several years forward.

The NDX weekly chart right now is a beautiful double-top pattern with universal negative divergence; the Nazzy 100 should trail lower on the weekly basis going forward and then you can see if the chart has topped-out on the monthly in November, if not, it will be December. No one sees what is coming down the road. Investors are concerned about different presidential election strategies and how markets will move. That is all a waste of time. It does not matter which corrupt silver-haired white guy wins the presidency in 18 days, the stock market is going to go down regardless. Good luck to all. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.