SPX Weekly Chart New All-Time Highs

SPX explodes higher only a hair shy of 2100 last week as the stock market experiences ongoing buoyancy from the Fed's ZIRP Forever policy. The SPX is at all-time record highs. The central bankers are the market. The SPX is far above the 2007 market top. The rising wedge pattern is very ominous pushing back against the Federal Reserve's obscene six-year Keynesian spending program. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

DAX Germany Weekly Chart Record Highs

DAX explodes above 11K last week as ECB Presdient Draghi fires the QE money bazooka letting euro's rain down on the continent to send the euro (XEU) lower and pump stocks higher. The DAX is at record highs wanting to breakout further as traders are drinking ECB wine daily and buying stocks. The central bankers are the market. The DAX is far above the 2007 market top. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NIKK Nikkei Index Weekly Chart Above 18K First Time Since 2007

NIKK explodes higher as BOJ Governor Kuroda prints yen non-stop sending the yen (XJY) lower, dollar/yen currency pair higher and Japanese and US stocks higher. The NIKK is at eight-year highs wanting to breakout further as traders sniff more central bank stimulus on the way. The central bankers are the market. The Nikkei Index is back to the 2007 market top. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Australia ASX 200 Weekly Chart Record Highs

Australia's ASX 200 launches higher after last week's rate cut by the RBA. The ASX 200 is at seven-year highs wanting to breakout further as traders sniff more central bank stimulus on the way. The central bankers are the market. The ASX 200 is not yet back to the 2007 highs. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX 2-Hour Chart All-Time Record High Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Developing Upper Band Violation

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 2094.74 and the day is far from over. Price breaks up and out of the brown sideways channel. The tight standard deviation bands squeeze out the rally move higher (pink arrows). Price is moving up inside a rising wedge pattern which is bearish. The indicators are overbot which is bearish sans the MACD line. The MACD wants one more high in price in this 2-hour candlestick time frame after a slight pull back. So the SPX should top out in one to three candlesticks which is 2 to 6 hours; that would place equities at topping out anytime now through early Tuesday morning. Markets are closed on Monday in Observance of President's Day holiday. Considering it is 11:40 AM EST as this is typed, the bears may be able to start the downside before today's closing bell. Simply watch to see when the MACD rolls over. Typically, stocks trade bullishly in front of a three-day holiday weekend.

The upper pink band is violated so a move back to the middle band, now at 2068 and rising, is in play. The bears were crushed by the Ukraine ceasefire agreement and Greece happy talk. So charts have to reset from the good news thrust higher which they are. Greece is expected to receive a new bailout package on Monday and this is getting priced into stocks already. The projection is for the SPX to soften for an hour or two, then come up for another new all-time high today, then the MACD will print negative divergence and the top will be in either, say, in the last hour of trading today or early Tuesday morning, and stocks should roll over to the downside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:25 PM: A new candlestick begins and with price at equal highs the MACD line is only a single hair from turning over. The near-term top may be approaching quickly and occur this afternoon. The SPX 1-hour chart is universally negatively diverged with its indicators including the MACD.

Note Added 3:17 PM:  The SPX moves down for a couple hours, then comes back up to satisfy the MACD positivity described above and prints at the high, a hair away, and the SPX 1-hour chart is clearly negatively diverged across all indicators. Ditto the 2-hour chart above, however, that pesky MACD may be pointing a tiny smidge higher still yet. Thus, the near-term top is anytime now through two more candlesticks, so now through early Tuesday morning. These current high prints with equities have a good chance of being the highs for the near-term top and stocks will roll over to the downside. If not, stocks will roll over anytime within the next four trading hours. There is about 40 minute of trading remaining today. SPX is at 2094 and just did print a new all-time high at 2094.93. The 1-hour chart wants the SPX to simply head lower from here forward.

Note Added 6:35 PM: The bulls keep markets elevated into the closing bell with the SPX printing a new all-time intraday high at 2097.03 and new all-time closing high at 2096.99. The SPX 1-hour and 30-minute charts are set up with universal negative divergence so they want a top to be in now and for price to head lower.  Ditto the SPX 2-hour chart above except the pesky MACD line. The MACD continues to slope positively, by a hair, but this says price needs to come back up for one more high after a pull back. So two candlesticks are likely needed, a down up pattern, so the guess would be a top at 2097-2102 on Tuesday morning then stocks sell off and move lower. Of course, a positive or negative news event will impact markets. The Greece bailout coming on Monday should be priced in to stocks for the most part. The BPSPX prints above 70 giving the bulls a double whammy buy signal a big feather for their cap. UTIL drops to 593 under the closing print from 15 weeks ago which now places utilities in a weekly downtrend which is a bad omen for the stock market going forward. Volatility collapses creating bull fuel and VIX drops to 14.69 at the critical 200-day MA at 14.62 which is a bull versus bear market signal. Therefore, the VIX pivot off the 200-day MA on Tuesday morning will dictate the market story. If VIX moves higher at the opening bell, stocks will sell off. If the VIX drops at the opening bell on Tuesday morning, stocks will rally and SPX is headed above 2100.

SPX 60-Minute Chart 200 EMA Cross

The SPX is above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 2037 signalling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. The positive cross occurs as February begins and remains in play. The market bears are trying to push price lower to create a negative cross. Bears got nothing unless the SPX falls under the 200 EMA. The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart (see previous chart) signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. So one of these two is wrong. Either the chart above turns bearish confirming market downside ahead, or, the 8/34 MA cross on the 30-minute will turn positive which will signal the all-clear for bulls again. Watch today to see which one flinches.

The red lines show the neggie d spank down and the green lines show the possie d launch. The indicators remain weak and bleak (short red lines) so lower lows in price would be expected setting up a potential challenge of the critical 200 EMA at 2037 for a critical bounce or die decision that will choose the market direction forward. The stochastics are bottomed in oversold territory so this will create an initial bounce in price, then after a couple candlesticks (an hour or two), price should come back down for a lower low. Price will not recover to the upside until the indicators positively diverge (unless a wild news event occurs such as  a resolution to the Greece bailout renegotiation which would probably send stocks strongly higher; or even a truce for the Ukraine civil war).

The falling neon blue wedge pattern targets the critical 200 EMA support where a critical decision would occur. If the news about Greece is bad, then the SPX will likely collapse down through the 200 EMA giving the bears the nod. Keep an eye on the two indicators described in the first paragraph since they will tell you the market answer ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

The CPCE moves higher to 0.75. If the stock market sells off on Tuesday, that action will create more fear and panic that will send the CPCE higher and work towards placing a tradeable near term bottom. It will depend a lot on the action after the opening bell. If stocks rally then the CPCE will likely drop and keep playing around in that center range.

The stock market tops are shown by the red circles (complacency) and stock market bottoms by the green circles (fear). What do you think will happen? So the 0.78-ish level and higher is a great indication for a market bottom in place and time to buy longs for a quickie ride higher. Under 0.50 marks a significant market top. Note that the top during the final days of December occurred with the low sub 0.50 that Keystone pointed out at the time. The three tops since then are cheesy with the CPCE only coming down to the 0.55-ish area.

The chart tells you that if the stock market sells off, it would be prudent to nibble long but only for nimble traders or day traders since the recovery move may be fast, a few days and then you likely want to get out again. A market bottom should occur in the green circle on the right and that will likely be either tomorrow or Wednesday. Other charts or indicators require review to see if they agree with this conclusion. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 30-minute provides insight for Monday as the sideways circus drama continues for this year. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead, however, the 8 MA is falling like a stone ready to stab down through the 34 MA to create a negative cross after the opening bell. Therefore, a big showdown is on tap at the opening bell. To prevent the 8/34 negative cross from occurring the bulls must show up ready to play and thrust price higher at the opening bell to cause the 8 MA to change its mind and start moving higher again. If there is not a strong move higher in the SPX at the opening bell, then the negative 8/34 cross is going to occur to pave the way for the bears.

The indicators are mixed but the MACD, histogram and stochastics are weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in price. The oversold stoch's, however, will help create a bounce for a candlestick or two before the next couple candlesticks after that are lower lows. That 2044-2046 area keeps poking its head up with the charts (blue lines). The 2046 is strong horizontal price support and the 50-day MA is 2044 a critical bounce or die level. The opening bell is very important for Monday. If a big up occurs at the bell the fix is in and the bulls will continue an upside rally to 2061, 2067 and 2075-2076 resistance levels. Watch to see if the S&P futures are up big. If the opening is flat or lackluster with the S&P futures flat or negative, then the bears will likely wear the pants on Monday especially after the negative 8/34 MA cross occurs shortly after the opening bell. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:57 PM on Monday evening, 2/9/15: The market bears kept the S&P futures negative from Sunday evening into this morning's bell and punched the bulls in the face, however, the bears did not have a lot of strength. Semiconductor weakness pushes stocks lower but the financials did not crumble and the NYA remains above the 40-week MA at 10814. The 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA on the chart above placing the bears in charge for the hours ahead. The 8 MA is at 2049.64 sloping lower which continues the bearishness as long as the SPX stays under here and keeps pulling the 8 MA lower. The 1-hour and 2-hour chart indicators are weak and bleak so from 2 to 5 candlesticks are likely needed before the SPX can bottom with positive divergence, about 2 to 10 hours of trading time. This can be narrowed down as time proceeds but this places trading in Tuesday and possibly Wednesday into lunch time for a bottom to occur. This jives with the CPCE put/call chart looking for a bottom perhaps tomorrow or Wednesday. Interestingly, the President's Day holiday is Monday and markets are closed so stocks tend to be bullish the two days preceding a three-day holiday weeekend (Thursday and Friday). Thus, mixing all this together and sprinkling magic dust on it allows a projection that market weakness may continue for tomorrow, and even into Wednesday morning but a near-term bottom should occur with stocks recovering on Thursday and floating higher into the holiday weekend. Of course news events such as both the Greece and Ukraine events hitting the fan on Wednesday will push markets one way or the other.

On trades, Keystone took profits on XONE exiting the long trade but then reentered opening a new long trade in XONE. That +6% or +7% pop was too good to pass up so the gain was locked in.  ExOne chart is positively diverged so more upside is expected. The rocket fuel started to send it higher but it remains a speculative trade. XONE should either continue a strong move higher, or, can still potentially blow up on the launch pad. Keystone entered WB, opening a new long position, a Chinese internet stock; most of those Chinese stocks are corrupt one way or the other. The WB daily and weekly charts are very attractive with possie d so a launch move may occur with this one. The MACD line on the weekly chart is trying to flatten that would be the only fly in the ointment. The expectation is for a big bounce for WB but it is a very dangerous trade. Keystone took profits on SDP exiting this long trade which was the inverse play against utilities. Utilities may keep falling and the trade will likely be reentered at some point forward. Keystone also bot SSNI on the long side, another dangerous play. SSNI is a smart grid play that would benefit if the country's electrical systems experience a problem in the future. This one has crumbled over the last year and is beaten down. The daily and weekly charts are set up with positive divergence so it is another knife-catch looking for a strong recovery from its over one-year drubbing.

SPX Daily Chart Sideways Channel

The cat and mouse sideways drama game continues. The SPX pops above 2072 on Friday only to fall on its sword ending at 2055. That higher price high comes with the chart indicators moving sideways and continuing to exhibit sideways behavior. The blue lines squeeze in slowly forming a long drawn out triangle pattern. Price drops on Friday to back test the upper blue rail so it will bounce or die tomorrow from 2055. The thinner blue upper trend line combines with the 50-day MA at 2044 that will need back kissed at some point forward so price may come back to explore the 2044-2046 support level.

The strongest S/R is 2094, 2091, 2088, 2082, 2079, 2075-2076, 2067, 2061, 2046, 2040, 2038, 2032, 2030, 2023, 2019, 2011, 2002-2003, 1997-1998, 1993, 1988, 1985-1986 and 1982. The pink channel in place this year is 1988-2061 and can even be extended as a three-month sideways channel. Bulls win big above the 2061-2067 level. Bulls win very big above 2075-2076 since a test of new all-time highs will be next. Bears win big under 2050 since this was Friday's low print. Bears win very big if the 50-day MA at 2044 fails.

Stocks are wandering aimlessly through the year thus far waiting for perhaps a catalyst to occur to push it in a specific direction. The ECB QE is expected to keep the party alive and the rally over the last few days is due to the Draghi money bazooka. There is also a potential H&S pattern in play with the right shoulders forming at the 2061-2067 area so watch to see if the head and shoulders pattern develops; a rupture of the 1975 neckline for the H&S with head at 2094 will target 1856 a retest of the October lows. The choppy erratic price action continues in the daily time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Weekly Chart

The two tops were highlighted as they occurred. The negative divergence creates the two smack down moves off the top. The SPX stumbles sideways this year and will not tip its hand up or down as yet. Last week, the candlestick prints a key reversal, a lower low than the prior week, then a higher high and closing higher, a nod to the bulls. However, the ever so slightly higher high comes with all indicators remaining weak and volume is lackluster. Last week was a robust price move but it was not particularly enthusiastic from a chart perspective. The MACD cross remains negative helping the bears.

Watch the RSI and stochastics to see if they slip into bear territory under the 50% level since this will usher in negativity. Bulls will gain traction higher if the RSI and stochastics stay above 50 and move higher. Price remains very extended above the 20 MA above the 50 MA above the 200 MA so a mean reversion is needed; perhaps another touch of the 50-week at a minimum. The chart technicals have no expectation for price to come up to print a higher all-time high. Can it print another record high? Sure it can. The multi-year rally for the SPX, however, is looking tired. The projections for the weekly chart is sideways to sideways lower going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.