APH Amphenol Weekly Chart; Double-Top; Overbot; Negative Divergence; If Long Amphenol, You May Need Alcohol

APH  is another hot darling in the stock market these days. She's passed around like a bowl of macadamia nuts. Lots of folks are dancing with pretty Amphenol. After she stumbles adn falls, investors are going to need alcohol.

APH is a double-top, or M-top right now. Price prints matching highs so the indicators can be assessed and the neggie d is glaring. APH is topped-out and should begin falling for several weeks. Amphenol provides power applications so it must be another utility and chip cooling play. The buyers believe in it bigtime with solid buying for the last month. It is an ugly chart.

Maybe those heavy buyers know something special about the stock? Let's take a look at the daily chart. The daily chart is not impressive staggering sideways like a drunk through Times Square last night. APH has been chopping sideways since October trying to make an up or down decision.

Keystone has never played APH long or short and likely will not. It is probably best to take the money and run, like the Steve Miller Band, if long. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 1/19/26: It was wall to wall attention on Amphenol last week. APH thrusts higher with an orgy move due to the happy talk now at 154. Nothing has changed but give it a week or so to absorb the thrust move higher last week. S&P futures are down big because of Donnie the drama queen so that may provide the catalyst to begin a big slide lower. Keystone is not in it long or short but short is the play going forward in the near and short term. Give it a few days or week or so to breathe.

Note Added Sunday, 1/25/26: APH sits at 150 after dropping to 147.

Note Added 2/3/26: APH 147.

FIX Comfort Systems Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Comfort Is About to Become Uncomfortable

Keystone does not know FIX from Shinola. The fix is in. Comfort Systems provides mechanical and electrical systems engineering and construction. Traders must believe that the AI chips and data centers will need a lot of cooling so everyone jumped on the FIX bandwagon. But it looks like the game is fixed.

What a stock from 150 to over 1K in a couple years, a +600% gain! A lot of people made a lot of money. The neggie d spankdown in early December led to the rout to the downside with traders locking in profits (huge selling volume candlestick). But price recovers over the last month, probably on AI hype, those of you in this ticker probably know the reasons, and another matching price high is printed.

The red lines show ongoing neggie d; nothing has changed so another smackdown should begin that starts a multi-week slide lower. The top band was violated so a trip to the middle band at 890 and rising is on the table and the lower band at 690 and rising sharply.

If you made money in FIX, take the dough and exit stage right. Didn't Emperor Jensen say late last week that the new Rubin chip does not overheat like prior chips? Sounds like the cooling demands are lessened.

Keystone does not own FIX long or short and never played it, and likely will not. Whoever needed a furnace got one for this winter so Comfort may be sitting around, waiting for April and May when everyone wants their air conditioning unit serviced, before they feel comfortable. If you are long FIX, you will feel uncomfortable going forward, like wearing jeans that are too tight. Tight jeans are like the current status of the Whitehouse construction. No ball room. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 1/19/26: FIX benefits like nearly all stocks last week on a happy start to the year with plenty of happy talk. Give the move a few days or week or so to settle but the same set-up will appear in the charts. S&P futures are down big because of Donnie the drama queen so that may provide the catalyst to begin a big slide lower. Keystone is not in it long or short but short is the play going forward in the near and short term.

Note Added Sunday, 1/25/26: FIX ends the week at 1121.

Note Added 2/3/26: FIX squeezing out a bit more life at 1210.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

The SPX recovers from another downdraft after Emperor Jensen proclaims that AI is the best thing since sliced bread. The last candlestick shows the all-time high at 6978 and the all-time closing high at 6966. Price did not have to come up for another higher high. The SPX was already neggie d in the 2-hour timeframe. Huh? What is this language he speaks?

The maroon lines show the top on Wednesday receiving the neggie d spankdown but as mentioned, the AI hype talk stick-saves stocks. Once the technical breakdown occurs, the index or ticker is toast but if news hits the tape, that must be priced-in to the chart. Charts only price-in everything known about a stock, including all the trading by insiders, up to the minute. When news hits the wires, that is something new that the chart must handle and digest.

The 2-hour handled the happy talk on Friday and the last candlestick was already becoming soggy. The red lines show price making the higher highs, so the chart indicators can be reviewed to see if negative divergence exists so you can call the top. It is. Just like Wednesday so the expectation is for stocks to move lower out of the gate tomorrow and in the week ahead but, as mentioned, if happy news hits the tape, that may extend the joy another couple days. Conversely, if negative news hits the tape, the stock market turd will be immediately flushed.

King Donnie will probably stand in front of the cameras between 3 PM EST and 6 PM EST today before the S&P futures begin trading to try and grease the skids for the bulls in the week ahead.

Everyone is bullish on stocks. The rampant complacency is proven by the low put/calls. The 2-hour is topped-out. Let the festivities begin. Bob Weir kicked the bucket. LSD sales will never be the same. He wrote some great songs; an excellent musician, guitarist, singer, and songwriter. Let's have some Sugar Magnolia on a Sunday morning. Come on gang, jump in the van, let's head down to the concert and jam all day. Pass the bowl; gimme a light. Tie-dye tee shirt sales will never be the same. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added on 1/20/26 at 2:32 PM EST: SPX drops to 6796 a 67-handle. Whoopsies, daisies.

SPX S&P 500 and CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand Due to Rampant Complacency, Fearlessness, and Bullish Euphoria

The US stock market remains at a historic top but refuses to relent. The holiday cheer, ongoing AI hype and rate-cut talk start 2026 with the SPX printing a new all-time record high at 6978.36, call it 6978, and an all-time closing high at 6966.28, call it 6966, both on Friday 1/9/26. Can't Believe We're Here. The New Year's party continues. However, it is the same story in recent weeks and months.

The bullish euphoria and rampant complacency and fearlessness is verified by the low put/calls; the CPC now down to 0.75. No one believes that stocks can ever go down again. The top is at hand in the days ahead. The Uber driver, shoeshine boy, doorman, and programmer that just got laid off that is still wearing a fleece vest with the company logo, all went triple-leveraged long (3x) placing their entire paychecks into the stock market because it always goes up.

The SPX is in the 5th month of the 6500-7000 range. That is about 7% so that has been the big fight through choppy slop for almost 5 months. Doesn't it feel like stocks are up a lot further? It is up, down, up, down, up......... and next, down. Plan accordingly. Everyone is too bullish and overconfident; the boat is loaded to one side.

The green circles show the bottoms in stocks and the red circles show the tops. For many years, the 1.20 signals the bottoms and about 0.80 signaled the tops. The lower range moves lower in recent years so it is more like 0.75, where price is right now, ringing the bell. Note that the last legitimate bottom in stocks over the last year is the April bottom. People panicked running from the burning stock market so that is when you took their shares off their hands in an accumulation phase. Now you are in a distribution phase.

The CPC tagged 1.12 at the end of 2025 helping the bulls keep stocks joyous into the new year but there was never any panic or fear created. The complacency has been signaling an important and likely major top since the Fall but Emperor Jensen runs to a camera and says, "buy chips," and the crowd goes wild. This top and the economic times currently are a special breed.

The stick of dynamite that is about to blow gets a bit longer; maybe that means when she blows it will be a bigger blast? Everyone in the stock market is bullish. Further, as human nature dictates, they also believe that there will be time to get out if stocks should happen to sell off, but they do not think this will happen anyway. Can you imagine the level of panic and fear that can develop when stocks start moving south? Talk about momentum. Everyone would run for the exit at once. It will be fun.

There has not been a true 'Black" day yet. October was a very good candidate but the AI hype and rate-cut excitement carried the month. There have been a few mini-black days but no biggie yet and that would most definitely remain on the table more so now with the put/calls collapsing again. It is the second full week of trading on tap so everyone is back on the trading floor now ready for the festivities to begin.

Watch your wallet. If you are new to trading, get out and sit in cash for a couple months and simply watch the market and see what happens, otherwise, you are jumping into a buzzsaw and will receive your head on a platter.

Utilities failed last week but the bulls saved the day. As per the Keybot the Quant algorithm, if UTIL, or DJU, lose 1063, the stock market is in serious trouble. If the VIX then spikes above 16.89 it is lights out; the Wall Street blood and carnage will begin. Bulls simply need to keep both metrics in their camp. The Supreme Court tariff decision, bank earnings, inflation data, Fed Speak, and of course ongoing AI hype will move markets this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added on 1/20/26 at 2:32 PM EST: SPX drops to 6796 a 67-handle. Whoopsies, daisies.

Keybot the Quant Whipsaws Back to the Long Side

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 6940 after the opening bell this morning. The bulls goosed the utilities out of the gate and the stock market rout was on. The UTIL 1063 line in the sand remains in play with price ending the week at 1069 so stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side on Monday or sometime next week. The year is starting off with choppy pig slop like last year that can chew-up bulls and bears alike.

The SPX prints a new all-time high today, 1/9/26, at 6978 only 22 points from 7000. Keystone has his SPX 7K hat ready to go. Maybe he can wear it next week? The all-time closing high for the SPX is also today, 1/9/26, at 6966. The stock market bottom years ago was 666 and now we are at 6966.

The circus continues on Monday. The first week of January is up, so the month should be up according to the January barometer, and that should portend well for the year for stocks. Do not hang your hat on this stuff. Chips controlled the stock market this week (Emperor Jensen provided the boost pumping chips and storage stocks) and utes controlled the price action today.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side today after the opening bell at SPX 6916. The quant is fixated on utilities and volatility. Bulls need UTIL, or DJU, above 1063 or they are going to be in big trouble. Bears need to push VIX above 16.89 to prove that they got further game and can take stocks way lower. If UTIL remains below 1063, and VIX below 16.89, stocks will muddle along sideways with a slight downward bias. Eventually, one of them will flinch and reveal the path ahead. The jobs report and Supreme Court decision on the legality of tariffs will create drama tomorrow.

Keybot the Quant

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Fail at 50-Week MA at 1063 Forecasting Major Trouble Ahead

The SPX, S&P 500 Index, the United States stock market, prints a new all-time record high today, 1/7/26, at 6965.69, call it 6966. Older folks remember the Summer of 69 and Bryan Adams the Canadian. 'Those were the best days of my life'. Toss me that 6-string. The all-time closing high is 6944.82, call it 6945, on 1/6/26, yesterday.

The euphoria from the holidays continues along with more AI hype, chip hype, Jensen hype, rate-cuts galore, QE as far as the eye can see, and more fiscal and monetary stimulus to fatten greedy wallets. Keystone opened his wallet the other day and moths flew out. He is the one with alligator arms when the waitress brings the bill. No one cares that the Santa Claus rally was a bust this year; it is bad news so no one wanted to report it.

Anyhoo, the chart above is the utilities. The markets remain Psycho with many cross currents but a major negative metric fell today; the UTIL, or DJU, 50-wk MA at 1063. 

The trap-door opens and utes fall through with UTIL dropping to 1048. The SPX falls from its record high at 6966 to 6920 a 46-point pullback. The utility trap-door tells you big trouble is on the way either coincidentally (right now) or within days or a few weeks (month or so) at most. Considering that the stock market has been playing games for 4 months with the topping action, it is about time for the turd to be flushed.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm is tracking utes as the top priority. Bulls need UTIL back above 1063 as fast as possible and they will have no worries with stocks rallying higher. Each day that the utilities remain below 1063, however, is another huge nail pounded into the bull coffin. If UTIL remains below 1063, and the SPX drops only a couple points to below 6919, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Pay attention tomorrow. No sleepin' on the job. It may be an exciting day.

There is a lot on the line tomorrow. It is fascinating to ponder that the all-time high today in the SPX may not be seen again for months or years. Sticking to the present, be very afraid going forward if you are long, and it may be time for you to begin clenching your buttocks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Evening at 5:44 PM EST: UTIL is goosed higher this morning to 1083 the bulls celebrating the launch sending the stock market higher to new all-time highs. UTIL faded as the session played out, dropping to 1069 so the same drama is on tap for Monday.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

The SPX monthly chart is super important going forward since it is helpful in calling THE top. Keystone has posted it several times over the last few months describing the topping process. We are now on the fourth month that price has made a matching or higher high. Therefore, the chart indicators can be assessed for potential neggie d and top call.

All the chart indicators are negatively diverged (red lines) except for the MACD line. Remember last month was the same set-up, that did fail, but the happy year-end talk, rate-cuts on tap, more QE on tap, and ongoing AI hype, collude to keep stocks elevated into January. The MACD line is the only snake in the woodpile and it is at nosebleed levels with nowhere to go but down. It would be different if the MACD was at one or two-hundo heading higher (indicating that it may still have plenty of legs to go higher) instead of now where it is peaking now, in real-time, or will in a month or so if the MACD line still points higher on January 30th.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot open to a pullback on the monthly basis. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since the collapses out of rising wedges can be quite dramatic and this is a monthly chart. Are you ready to flush this turd?

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-mth MA, at 6109, and rising, is on the table going forward on the monthly basis as well as the lower band at 5147 and rising. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (10 MA above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200) requiring a mean reversion lower.

The ADX verifies strong trends, up or down, in the market and the pink box shows the last strong trend, that was up, was in 2018. That is funny. ALL the price action since 2019 is considered to not be a strong trend even though new record highs are printed. Keystone mentions now and then that the last legitimate top in the stock market was 2015.

The price action from 2015 to now is Fantasyland on easy money. No one really knows what anything is worth anymore since the obscene money-printing and monetary and fiscal stimulus for many years has destroyed all price discovery. What is your house actually worth? What are your stocks worth? What is the car you bought actually worth? We will find out over the next couple years. Hint; none of this material garbage is worth what you think it is.

The all-time record high in the SPX, the S&P 500 Index, the United States stock market, is 6945.77 on 12/26/25 and the all-time closing high is 6932.05 on 12/24/25, bookending Christmas.

The Aroon green line shows that nearly every single bull believes that stocks will continue higher on the monthly basis. The red line shows that every single bear believes that stocks will go up forever. That is funny. The bears are unanimous that stocks will continue higher and more bullish than the bulls. It is funny.

The January candlestick just started so there is a lot of month yet to play out. The SPX daily and weekly charts continue to want to see a spankdown begin and last for several weeks. This scenario fits perfectly with the neggie d on the monthly chart above. If stocks start puking their guts out this month, the MACD line can easily go neggie d and that would lock-in THE top right now. Put that in your bong and smoke it.

If not, and the MACD can make it to Jan 30th with that slight upside, it tells you that THE top will be delayed by a month or so (say 2 to 6 weeks). So she is at the doorstep and there is a great likelihood that the pullback is now and THE major top for the US stock market is now.

When she dies, remember, this is a monthly chart, so you are talking long-term pain. Maybe a few months, or couple-three years, or longer. The stock market may languish for a decade or two ahead. The United States is a country of old people now so the demographics are not in our favor going forward and especially with young men that do not know which end of a shovel to hold.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? That is easy. Sell, Mortimer, sell!!!  If you are new to trading and trying to get your sea legs, any long positions you own will likely lose money for several months forward. If you have enjoyed the easy stock market profits over the last 3 years, it would likely be prudent to exit stage left. February of last year Keystone told you it was like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. Honey, I'm home. Here we go again.

If you remain long with any individual stock, index or ETF, you are hoping for +5% or +10% of upside in the months ahead by taking on risk that you may lose from -10% to -80% on the downside. That is the definition of picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. But every stock trader and investor decries Keystone calling him a charlatan and doomster. It is blasphemy to talk down the US stock market! 

Some of you, are holding VOO, and that is the same chart and technical analysis as the SPX in lock-step. Thus, if you are in VOO, do not fall under a voodoo spell and siren call to stay long. Watch that MACD line in the above chart like a hawk; it is going to tell you when the major top is in place and it should be anytime forward.

Everyone talks about the new bill creating lots of economic activity, and big tax refunds coming, and other happy talk. I would like to sell you this AI pie in the sky. And some H200 chips out of the trunk of my car. Plan accordingly, folks. It is going to be a lot of fun. Even if you stay long, at least take on a couple inverse ETF's to cover yourself with a loin cloth.

King Donnie is making trouble down in Venezuela Nam. He said he will 'run' Venezuela so he better get busy since the grocery store shelves are empty especially due to recent hoarding as tensions rose. People are hungry. Trumpski cannot lower US grocery store prices but now he is in the grocery store business in Venezuela stocking shelves. It is ridiculous.

It will be interesting to see how the S&P and oil futures trade this afternoon. At 6 PM EST, in 9 hours time (it is 9 AM EST here on the East Coast), futures will trade and provide the first grade of the orange head's aggression against Venezuela. No doubt, King Donnie will spew some news, that will be positive as he can make it, between 3 PM and 6 PM EST today, to try and goose the futures in a positive direction. Let the festivities begin.

Watch the utilities closely since a breach of UTIL 1062 (or DJU 1062) will send stocks to Hell. The 10-mth MA at 6457 is an early warning system that the market is in bigtime trouble. That is still a ways away. The 12-mth MA at 6344, and rising sharply, dictates whether stocks are in a cyclical bull or bear market. Are we in Venezuela Nam? Oh Lord, we're stuck in Lodi again. Time to pull out the old Vietnam protest songs. It brings back a lot of memories. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 1/5/26: The bulls rally stocks but oddly, utilities fail with UTIL dropping below 1063. That is odd so tomorrow will be interesting. UTIL recovers one point back above 1063 so watch it closely since it would create negativity. VIX is higher with stocks higher that only happens less than 10% of the time; more oddities. The SPX ran up to 6920 to tap into the gap left behind 4 days prior. Price is at 6902 and may still want to come up for a better fill but showing that respect to the top gap today is good enough and buttons-up the topside gaps. New money comes into the stock market to begin the year that is why the Santa Claus rally typically occurs from Christmas Eve through the first two trading days of the new year, today, and it falls short by about 8 SPX points so the Santa rally is Santy folly down marginally for those few days. Nothing has changed. The charts remain a piece of excrement. Maybe blow on the SPX and it should fall over. You can smell it coming. Friday morning. The US Monthly Jobs Report. 8:30 AM EST. Be there or be square. It is always a circus but now it will be a carnival spectacular, the Superbowl for analysts, strategists, traders, investors, and other boring eggheads. If you listen closely, you can hear the circus calliope.

Note Added on 1/20/26 at 2:32 PM EST: SPX drops to 6796 a 67-handle. Whoopsies, daisies.

SPX S&P 500 60 Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Bulls and Bears Battle for Short-Term Control of the Stock Market

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is a key short-term bull/bear market indicator. Keystone posted this chart as it failed mid-month but the rate-cut happy talk, QE light, ongoing AI hype, holiday joy, the Santa rally on tap, and euphoric optimism and complacency reverse the failure and maintain the short-term bull market.

Price gaps higher on 12/22/25 and price comes down to fill the gap. There is a big gap left behind on top at 6910-6930. The bears may be smart to fill that now, tap on 6920, and then begin the descent, however, there is no time line on filling gaps. Maybe that gap up top does not get filled for a few years?

King Donnie is striking Venezuela and kidnapped Dictator Maduro and his wife under the guise of fighting a drug war. The crowd cheers for "Sunday Bloody Sunday." Red Rocks is a beautiful venue. Hopefully, Venezuela does not turn out like Libya when Gaddafi was ousted from power. Or another Vietnam quagmire. Venezuela Nam. There is a power vacuum created so time will tell to see how it is filled.

Trumpski says he will run Venezuela so let the quagmire begin. When asked who would run the country, Trump pointed to the people behind them. Marco Rubio had a look on his face like, "What's this we sh*t, white man?" There is no plan. King Donnie says his cabinet can run Venezuela remotely? What could possibly go wrong? He also throws the Nobel Peace Prize lady under the bus. She may have not adored, bowed and kneeled enough when in the presence of the bloviating orange head.

The new New York Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, that sounds like a magician's stage name (it is pronounced by thinking about dear ole Mom and King Donnie Trump; say Mom-Donnie, Mom-Donnie, and the name is easy to pronounce and you will not forget how to say it), is sworn into office on the Quran. That is funny since the US Constitution is in direct conflict with that book but at the same time he swore allegiance to the Constitution.

You have to laugh since no one has the guts to call a spade a spade, therefore, everyone deserves what they will receive. He is lying about one or the other; either he believes in the Quran or he believes in the US Constitution. What's it gonna be, buddy? Take your pick. Sounds like Paradise by the Dashboard Light. What's it gonna be, boy, yes or no? The book is happy talk in the beginning but then the pages turn into 'kill the infidel', 'kill the infidel', 'kill the infidel'. Good luck New York. 

In addition, it is perfectly acceptable to lie and deceive if the end result is promoting Islam. Taking the oath of office likely meant nothing to Mamdani. In the coming months, it will be known if he is governing as per the US Constitution, or, the Quaran. One thing is for certain; Mamdani would win a 'sh*t-eatin' grin' contest hands-down. He has that phony smirk, or sh*t-eating grin, locked in, while placing a hand on his heart, pretending he cares. The politicians are but bit actors. The futures will react to the weekend drama in Venezuela, New York, and elsewhere on Sunday night at 6 PM EST.

The SPX came down to tap on the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute at 6834, and bounced. The support held on the bear's first try. There will be more stabs at the 200 by the bears to see if they can weaken it enough to fall through.

SPX 6834 is the magic number. Write it on a post-it note with a Sharpie and stick it on your forehead. The LOD (low of day) is 6824.31 so write that on a sticky note and place it on your forehead. Stocks will likely be in a lot of trouble if 6824 fails. If so, the gap down at 6740-6760 will be on tap next.

Keystone was given a 'SPX 6.9K' hat that appropriately describes current conditions (see below). The screen-printer is hard at work on the 'SPX 7K' and 'SPX 7000' hats with over 10,000 already in stock in cardboard boxes ready to send to Wall and Broad. What could possibly go wrong?

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so the breach of 6800 opens the door to 7200. The SPX monthly chart will tell if this will occur, or not (the SPX may not hit 7200 for a few years; time is not a factor). All Wall Street analysts are forecasting SPX 7100-8100 for this year with no one predicting a down year (they do not because they are trying to attract money into their funds from Joe Sixpack and talking positively attracts more money than talking negatively; do you want to be with the group that is laughing and having fun talking positively (even naively) or the group that is listening to Gloomy Gus and Negative Nancy?). Keystone is predicting SPX 5220 for the end of the year and the stock market will likely drop far lower than that before recovering.

Taking it step by step, watch SPX 6834 since it tells you if the US stock market slips into a short-term bear market (that could develop into an intermediate and long-term bear). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 1/5/26: The bulls rally stocks but oddly, utilities fail with UTIL dropping below 1063. That is odd so tomorrow will be interesting. UTIL recovers one point back above 1063 so watch it closely since it would create negativity. VIX is higher with stocks higher that only happens less than 10% of the time; more oddities. The SPX ran up to 6920 to tap into the gap left behind 4 days prior. Price is at 6902 and may still want to come up for a better fill but showing that respect to the top gap today is good enough and buttons-up the topside gaps. New money comes into the stock market to begin the year that is why the Santa Claus rally typically occurs from Christmas Eve through the first two trading days of the new year, today, and it falls short by about 8 SPX points so the Santa rally is Santy folly down marginally for those few days. Nothing has changed. The charts remain a piece of excrement. Maybe blow on the SPX and it should fall over. You can smell it coming. Friday morning. The US Monthly Jobs Report. 8:30 AM EST. Be there or be square. It is always a circus but now it will be a carnival spectacular, the Superbowl for analysts, strategists, traders, investors, and other boring eggheads. If you listen closely, you can hear the circus calliope.

Keybot the Quant Logs Another Banner Year Up +35% Outperforming the Benchmark SPX by Over 2x; SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Shows the Stock Market Turns in 2025

The SPX chart shows the Keybot the Quant stock market turns in 2025. Equities took the pipe at the start of the year collapsing to the April low. The AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people still spending money enjoying the wealth effect, and other happy talk, sends stocks higher with an above-average finish to the year for the SPX up +16.4%.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% and controls the actual trading that generated +35% outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by more than 2x.

The funny thing about 2025 is how many common folks, with money in the stock market, brag and boast about the +16% return this year but when asked what they thought when they had lost -20% to -30% of their money in April, most are clueless. Some do not even know, or remember, that stocks had crashed in the springtime and others immediately proclaim that the stock market always goes up, as it proved in 2025. Wall Street trained the peons well.

For many decades, the US demographics were in our favor. Families kept expanding and so did technology and job opportunities. Productivity drives stock market gains. America is now an old folk's home. The senior Americans are the ones with all the dough in the stock market and that money will be needed for medical bills as the body gives out.

Further, many parents are helping their children get by in life and that will pull money from the market as the years roll forward. A barista at Starbucks, that they should call Tenbucks because that is what you usually spend when you walk in, is not socking away a couple grand per month into the US stock market going forward, as the wealthy folks pull money out.

Think twice about the standard mantra that stocks always go up going forward. Wouldn't it be interesting if the current highs in the SPX at 6900+, or 6900-7250, serve as a top for the next couple decades or more?

Bulls are in charge to begin 2026 but watch UTIL 1062 (utilities) and XRT 84.97 (retail stocks) since stocks will fall apart if either one is breached; big trouble if both give way.

Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's so hopefully the emotionless robot will lead the way to another successful year ahead regardless of stock market direction. It does not matter which way the stock market goes, up or down; all that matters is that you are on the right side of the trade. Happy New Year and Good Luck in 2026. All is quiet on New Year's Day.... under a blood-red sky..... New Year's Day by U2.