SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Diamond Pattern Will Resolve with Debt Crisis Deadline; Kicking the Can the Most Likely Outcome; Sideways Channels

The US debt ceiling drama orchestrated and fueled by the dirtbag republocrats and demopublicans continues. An early June deadline is set by Treasury Secretary Yellen that used to be in Fed Chairman Powell's job. Yellen is currently using extraordinary measures to pay the US bills but says a default will occur in 2-1/2 weeks if the Congress (republican House, democrat Senate, democrat president like 2011) does not act to raise the debt ceiling.

This is the US credit card that needs an increase in its limit so the scum and filth can spend and waste more taxpayer money on nonsense. The incumbent party (democrats control the presidency and Senate) always cries and moans that the commitment for the current expenditures is based on decisions by Congress in the previous years so the debt ceiling should be automatically increased. The party that is only in partial power (republicans) or not in power will wax fear and worry that the US debt is unsustainable and spending limits must be maintained to keep the budget (of which there is no US budget due to the demopublican and republocrat incompetence) from blowing-up and destroying the full faith and confidence in the United States (it is already damaged and the US is a laughing stock due to stumbling, bumbling, mumbling and confused Alzheimer Joe steering the ship into the reef).

The crony capitalism system is on its last legs and it is fascinating to watch the final throes. All of you are going to get exactly what you deserve over the coming months and years; it will be shoved right down your throat until you gag on it. The 30 million upper middle class and elite privileged class screwed the other 300 million Americans over the last 5 decades and the game is over. It is payback time for the 300 million to screw the 30 million and during the coming years we will find out if the country survives. None of this is a surprise. Read world history. Crony capitalism is just another dirtbag ism like all the others that have been thrown into the dustbin of history. Human greed is the most powerful force and that will never change.

The SPX daily chart is forming a diamond pattern. Some say it is a diamond continuation pattern (price will continue in the direction that it comes into the diamond (in this case, up)) but other technicians will say it is a diamond reversal pattern. The truth is it is like a triple-top pattern where you can flip a coin as to the direction out of the diamond. The interesting aspect of the diamond pattern is that it comes to a crescendo, or denouement, exactly when the debt ceiling deadline hits in about 16 days (a couple weeks of so).

The purple multi-month sideways channel at 3800-4150 continues chewing-up bulls and bears and spitting them out. Keystone likes purple crayons because they taste the best. The blue sideways channel is also in play at 4050-4160. A decision needs to be made since price is at the top trend lines of both channels. It is time to either bounce or die.

The red lines show the neggie d spankdown previously mentioned. Price tops out with all the indicators sloping lower (negative divergence; the indicators are negatively diverging away from price that continues higher which verifies that price is wrong and is about to receive a neggie d spankdown, and it does). The SPX is directionless now floating along sideways waiting for Powell and Yellen to bring the tablets down from On High and tell traders how to trade the debt ceiling dilemma.

So that is the back drop; more sick sideways choppy slop. The best thing for the country is to let the pile of sh*t go into default. Perhaps it is the only way to wake up Americans to the nasty economic and life times ahead. Crony capitalism is taking its final breaths so why not sit on its chest and end the mess right now so we can see if something new can be formed, or, if the complete failure of the US occurs during the next decade or two. World history is fun.

The likely outcome for the debt crisis, since time is short, is for the scumbag republocrats and demopublicans to kick the can down the road extending the deadline ceiling to a new date perhaps this November-December period.

The next most likely outcome is a default. The republicans have slightly more leverage than the democrats and their only hope at controlling Sleepy Joe Biden's insane wasteful spending is to force their bill to resolve the debt ceiling, which includes spending cuts, through the Senate but crying Chucky Schumer will not bring the bill up on the floor (isn't it sickening?).

President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are meeting this afternoon to discuss the debt crisis but it will only result in more bickering. Everything has become entertainment like ancient Rome; it is America's bread and circus days. Americans are fed-up with the corrupt politicians.

Do you understand that the two filthy political tribes place their agendas and narratives ahead of what is good for America or are you a stupid idiot? The democrats and republicans are two sides of the same filthy corrupt Washington, DC, coin.

The least likely outcome is an agreement on the debt ceiling right now, in real-time, since days will be required to write the text of the legislation. Choose your poison from the three outcomes. Once you understand that the US corrupt crony capitalism system is in its final throes, dramas like the debt ceiling will become more common place as will civil and social unrest and even attacks (hopefully not) on the privileged class's physical bodies and property (houses, businesses) will increase. This is Our Destiny created by human greed the most powerful force in humanity. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side after munchtime on Friday at SPX 4104 humorously where it went long a week earlier. The chop suey continues. Utilities, semiconductors and the NYA index, specifically 15162, are running the stock market show right now. Nothing Else Matters.

Keybot the Quant

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle for Cyclical Market Control at 40-Week MA at 15162

The NYA is back. The previous charts highlight this extremely important metric; the NYA 40-wk MA cross, now at 15164, call it 15160-15164 (since the moving average will nudge lower if/when price drops lower), since it dictates the fate of the stock market going forward.

Yesterday, price drops to 15176, so close to 15162 it could taste it, so price will likely want to make a touch so a critical bounce or die decision can be made.

The NYA begins at 15263 forecasting a cyclical bull market ahead but this transition zone has been in play since the end of last year. It is time to sh*t or get off the pot. Bulls and bears must make a decision on who will be in control going forward.

Bulls win big going through the remainder of the year if the NYA tests 15162 and bounces. Bears win big if the NYA falls through 15162 since carnage will quickly follow. Stocks have been in a holding pattern as the debt ceiling crisis plays out.

You can go cut the grass and trim the hedges. Simply check NYA price and you will know what the US stock market will do in the near-term as well as going forward through 2023. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 5/13/23: NYA comes down for another look at the critical 15162 (15160-15164) with a LOD on Friday at 15167. That is super close only a few bucks away. Bulls would have been better off with a touch of the 40-wk MA before recovering into the closing bell. Now the touch remains on the table so price likely still has a date with 15162 in the days ahead to make the critical bounce or die decision and dictate the stock market's future. NYA begins a new week of drama on Monday at 15246.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side at SPX 4104. Utes, volatility and chips are running the show. The choppy slop continues.

Keybot the Quant

INDU Dow Jones Industrials, NYA NYSE Composite and SML Small Caps Daily Charts All Turn Negative on the Year

The Dow Jones Industrials (INDU or DJI), the NYA NYSE Composite, and the SML Small Caps daily charts all turn negative for the year. The SPX, which is the S&P 500 the United States stock market, and the tech-heavy indexes COMPQ and NDX, remain positive on the year.

The NYA also loses the 40-week MA at 15160 a critically-important metric that determines a cyclical bull versus cyclical bear market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Wk MA at 15160 for Cyclical Stock Market Control

The stage is set which will tell you the path forward for the US stock market into the summer and beyond. Three key metrics identify and confirm a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear; the NYA 40-week MA cross, the SPX 12-month MA cross and the slope of the SPX 150-day MA. All three are in a choppy sloppy pattern this year. 2022 was a cyclical bear market while the last few months are sideways chop. The wink has to be given to the cyclical bear market continuing until proven otherwise.

For the NYA, price remains well off the all-time top above 17K, dropping to a 13K handle and now at 15K-ish with a critical bounce or die decision at the 40-wk MA at 15160 on tap. It is not just a run of the mill test of a moving average. This one has huge ramifications for the stock market going forward.

If NYA fails at 15160 over the coming days and trends lower, there will be Hell to pay. The stock market will go south in a hurry with carnage since the cyclical bear market pattern will be confirmed for nearly 1-1/2 years. If NYA fails, watch the SPX 12-mth MA at 3965-3972 because if this level fails, a stock market Armageddon will begin.

If NYA bounces from here or tests the 15160 support and bounces, that is good news for bulls and means that stocks will likely remain buoyant for a few more weeks. If this occurs, look for the slope of the SPX 150-day MA to create a sustainable and steady uptrend which will confirm that a cyclical bull market is in play.

The utilities are in failure mode which creates a crash profile ahead for the US stock market beginning at anytime forward within the next few weeks. Bulls must push UTIL above 960.60 as fast as possible, otherwise, the situation will become ugly. If utes trend lower and lower, it tells you to get completely out of long positions in the stock market because the crash is coming. Of course, the failure at NYA 15160 will provide a warning signal. Are you ready for fun? The NYA chart will tell you what is coming. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:20 AM EST: Also watch volatility that has been sleeping. It is waking-up. Bears need VIX above 19.85 which will signal stock market selling ahead. VIX is trading now in real-time at 19.20. Okay, everyone now has their homework and knows what to watch.

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/5/23, at 4:47 AM EST: Happy Cinco de Mayo a great time for the cockroach song La Cucaracha and joyous Mariachi band activities. NYA sh*t the bed yesterday losing 15160 now at 15118 which places the US stock market firmly in the cyclical bear camp a major failure. Bulls must push NYA back above 15160 pronto or they face pain and misery ahead.

Note Added Saturday, 5/6/23: The NYA recovers back above 15160. The bounce or die decision is a bounce, at least for now. Friday's full moon helps send stocks higher.

KRE Regional Banks ETF Weekly Chart; H&S; Positive Divergence Setting-Up

The regional banks sh*t the bed yesterday the KRE ETF takes the pipe collapsing -9%. Overpaid bigshot Jamie Dimon at JPM must have been spinning yarns when he said the coast was clear after the Fed handed First Republic's goodies over to him on a silver platter. He is singing for his dinner. Too big to fail (TBTF) banks become bigger. Crony capitalism coughs and wheezes.

The prior KRE charts said to wait for the 38 or lower print and it finally arrives yesterday. The weekly chart indicators were weak and bleak so a 5th grader knew that price would continue falling on a weekly basis and anyone that wanted to play a quick relief bounce would have to be very nimble. Price comes down to a low at 38.11. A little California Hustle and Flow.

Price makes the new low so the indicators can be assessed for possie d. The histogram, stochastics and money flow are positively diverged ready for KRE to recover on the weekly basis (green lines). The oversold RSI and stochastics are also agreeable to upside going forward. Conversely, the RSI makes a new low ditto the MACD line. Their weak and bleak posture want another lower low for price going forward on the weekly basis.

A jog move is likely needed where price will bounce next week and then roll over again for another low say a couple weeks out and at that time the RSI and MACD will likely turn possie d and that will be the bottom on the weekly basis. Thus, if you want to play the regionals long, wait for 1 to 3 weeks for the bottom to form on the weekly and then, even in choppiness, price will float higher for several weeks.

There is more pain for a week or three due to the weak MACD. The H&S (head and shoulders) remains in play with neckline at 56.30 and head at 76.30. The difference is 20 so the downside target for the H&S is 36.30 if the 56.30 fails and it did. The low is 38.11 in the neighborhood so price may want to explore the 36 handle as it bottoms over the next couple weeks. The indicators will ALL form possie d which will tell you that the firm bottom on the weekly basis is in.

Keystone does not hold any positions in the banks right now but will probably look at a long in KRE once it sets up in a couple weeks. The utilities have failed which is a bad omen for the US stock market so of course if the whole ship starts going down the tubes everything will drown. For now, the analysts with calmer heads, such as Larry Summers, are likely correct in saying that the regional banking crisis is manageable and that should be proven when KRE price bottoms in 1 to 3 weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/5/23, at 4:58 AM EST: Happy Cinco de Mayo. KRE sh*t the bed yesterday printing not only the 36-handle but a 35-handle and yes, an intraday 34-handle with the low at 34.52. The regional bank worries escalate. They are looking like dead men walking as the corrupt crony capitalism system pushes money into the handful of major banks which will also make it easier for the Federal Reserve to move into digital money. It is sickening stuff but this is what happens as a multi-decade stretch of greed and crony capitalism implodes. If you bring up the KRE weekly chart, the low comes with the weaker RSI and MACD so the analysis above remains in play with a bottom likely 1 to 3 weeks away. You have to wait until all the indicators are possie d to know that a multi-week rally is on the come. On the KRE daily chart, there is universal positive divergence across all indicators so she will want to bounce and recover in the daily time frame. New news may hit the wires creating more negativity but the panic and fear is likely at its crescendo right now for the regionals. Selling volume hits a record high yesterday for the year so traders and investors are panicking and selling first and asking questions later. There is downside momo on the daily chart so there still may be a day or two of sogginess but she wants to rally in the daily time frame. The KRE 2-hour chart is setting up with possie d but the MACD line wants to see another low in price in the hourly time frame before it will team-up with the daily chart to create a brief, several-day relief rally. KRE will rally and then the daily chart will set up with neggie d to spank it back down and fulfill the desire of the weekly chart that wants to see a lower low in price a week or two out due to the weak and bleak RSI and MACD line. This 34.52-38.00 range is likely a good candidate for a bottom but it will take a couple weeks for it to be set in stone on the weekly basis. The possie d on the weekly chart will tell you when she is ready to rally on the weekly basis (you need to see the RSI and MACD line join the other indicators in positive divergence sloping higher against the falling KRE price).

Note Added Friday Morning, 5/5/23, at 7:00 AM EST: There are many idiots wanting to see the short-sellers prohibited from trading in the banks. It is laughable. Many of these morons will tout capitalism and their request is the opposite of capitalism (they are too stupid to understand what they are saying?). Further, short-selling was prohibited in banks in 2008. Do you remember that or are you stupid? It did not work then and only led to more headaches. There are plenty of ways for professional traders to short banks via derivatives. It is fascinating to watch. The reason the country is collapsing is because of the demise of the crony capitalism system and all the dishonest idiots, to the very end, will want the government and Federal Reserve to always guarantee protection for their money and life, which is the opposite of capitalism. The rot is so deep it is unfixable. More banks should have failed in 2008/2009 but instead the wealthy class was protected by the crony capitalism that is now in its final throes.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 5/6/23, at 8:00 AM EST: The regionals rally big on Friday so the possie d on the daily chart kicks-in. 

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the short side yesterday at SPX 4152 that was no big surprise as explained yesterday. Bulls need higher utes and chips to save the day while bears need weaker retail stocks and NYA index to kick-in carnage.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4172 but stay alert for more whipsaw slop since the algo already wants to revert back to the short side again. Utilities, banks, chips and retail stocks are all that matter right now especially the first two.

Bulls win big if UTIL moves above 960.85, XLF above 33.13 and SOX above 3027.

Bears win big with UTIL below 960.60 and RTH below 162.60. Whichever parameters flip tell you the direction of the US stock market going forward.

Keybot the Quant

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Market Complacency Not Yet Resolved

The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios remain skewed to the complacent and fearless side (so a stock market pullback is expected going forward). Traders believe the corrupt Federal Reserve and banksters will always save the elite stockholders with taxpayer money so everyone is anxious to buy any dip. Weak shorts also are quick to jump ship adding short-covering fuel for quick upside spurts.

The three green circles show the last three legitimate bottoms for the stock market as traders threw out the baby and the bathwater and swore they would never own a stock again. What does this (contrarian) signal tell you? Yes, you do not want to buy the broad market long until panic and fear shows up above CPC 1.20.

The bottom a couple days ago was cheesy with the CPC rolling over again. Traders and investors are fearless and trained that the stock market will always be saved so buy, buy, buy. The blind long players need taught a lesson and that occurs when the CPC spikes wildly higher as stocks drop. Perhaps the Wednesday Fed announcement will be the catalyst when Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High and tells global traders how to trade.

Watch utilities closely. UTIL 960-962 is a critical line in the sand for the US stock market. A rally will occur if UTIL pops above 962 and trends higher. However, if UTIL remains below 960 and trends lower, there will be Hell to pay going forward which is in sync with the CPC chart above. Check UTIL or DJU at the opening bell.

New money comes into the stock market for a new month which may buoy stocks. The stock market also typically rallies the 2 days preceding the Fed meeting (Tuesday and Wednesday). The First Republic bank failure and sweet deal for corrupt JPM is in play today. Crony capitalism run amuck. The fun continues. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.