CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand

The CPCE is at 0.35 at multi-year record lows signaling rampant complacency. The bombardier releases the uber low CPCE put/call weapon that will hammer the US stock market. It falls through the air right now and ground zero of this event will hit any minute, any hour, any day ahead. Do not be surprised if a flash crash occurs; the conditions are ideal.  Paging Major Kong! Paging Major Kong! 

The uber low put/call ratios signals a significant stock market top at hand. This is historic and exciting stuff that is occurring in markets in real-time but few realize it. The bullishness is at euphoric levels. Complacency and fearlessness rules market behavior. Investors believe that stocks will never go down again. Prepare yourself for the festivities. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 1-Minute Chart; Pfizer Hiccup

At 3:30 PM EST on 12/3/20, Pfizer says the December vaccine distribution goals will not be met due to supply-chain concerns; the Pfizer hiccup. The SPX drops from 3682 to 3658 in 10 minutes; a 24-point dump. PFE drops -2%. After the event, Pfizer waves its arms wildly proclaiming that this is old information that was released a month ago. Of course they do. Pfizer says the distribution plan is on track for next year. Of course they do. Big pharma takes a hit when they need to be building public trust. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; SPX Prints New All-Time Record High at 3683; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

The previous SPX 2-hour chart remains neggie d and you can clearly see the 60-minute chart above also in negative divergence. A spankdown is on tap. The bulls maintain elevated stock prices, and the SPX prints a new all-time high today at 3681.45, due to the continued vaccine happy hype and promises by Pelosi and McConnell that they will deliver fiscal stimulus sugar plums. Stocks are buoyant today since investors are hesitant to give up the ghost when a fiscal stimulus announcement may occur at any time. It does not make a difference what they think; the stock market is a floating turd currently, there is no other way to describe it. Sorry if you are eating lunch. Considering the low put/calls, elevated NYHL, other signals, and the neggie d on the SPX charts, stick a fork in it. It's cooked. 

Stocks also remain elevated due to the euro rocketing higher crushing the US dollar index lower sub 91 today deciding to live or die. Or, if you prefer, the weaker dollar sends the euro higher. It is likely more the former despite the analysts touting the latter. The weaker dollar creates buoyancy in the SPX. The ECB meets next Thursday which decides the fate of the euro ahead, and the dollar, and the stock market. President Lagarde scheduled a hair appointment for the day before.

The dollar slips to 90.63 with a LOD at 90.50. The buck is losing it, however, the dollar is not down as much as would be expected. It keeps holding on because Madame Lagarde will be the decider of everyone's fate in the days ahead. Germany, France and Italy are screaming from the rooftops; they cannot sustain a euro jumping above 1.20, then 1.21, then higher. The European exporters, multinationals and manufacturers are getting hammered. Lagarde is having difficulty sleeping. 

The Keystone Speculator's SPX 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross Indicator is a key market metric that tells you if stocks are in a short-term bull or bear. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute is at 3551. Price is above so the stock market is in a ST bull. As the selling takes hold, watch the 200 EMA. If 3551 is lost, it is lights out for the stock market. Equities will be falling in earnest.

Blow on this piece of garbage and it should roll over. The top is in for stocks unless Pelosi waves a fiscal stimulus banner. The US Monthly Jobs Report is on tap before tomorrow's opening bell so traders may be waiting for the BLS to bring the tablets down from on high and bestow that knowledge to Wall Street. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:05 PM EST: The SPX is up 9 points, +0.2%, to 3678. HOD is the new all-time high at 3681.45. The closing price needs to be above 3669 for a new record. VIX 20.93. Volatility is trending higher for three days as the stock market moves higher. One of them is wrong since they should move inversely. Do you expect the VIX to collapse lower verifying more party time for stocks, or, do you think the VIX will jump higher at anytime sinking the US stock market? You can see what the chart above is telling you with the neggie d in the hourly time frame. US dollar 90.63. Euro 1.2144. Gold 1838. 10-year yield 0.92%.

Note Added 12:27 PM EST: The VIX stretches its legs and arms up to 21.07. SPX 3673. Fed Chairman Powell jumps onto Uncle Vix's back and wrestles him to the ground. The Fed is trying to keep volatility's face in the dirt so equities can thrive and reward America's wealthy class. LOD is 3668 so watch this level; if it fails, prices will likely then drop like rocks. Watch the transition to the last two 65-minute trading segments today the first is at 12:45 PM and then 1:50 PM then 2:55 PM EST. Watch these trading times give or take 5 minutes on each side to see if any large block sell programs begin triggering. The first transition is in about 15 minutes.

Note Added 1:58 PM EST: The VIX spikes higher to 21.51 so the SPX drops to the LOD at 3665. The SPX turned negative on the day at 1:49 PM but recovers.

Note Added 2:20 PM EST: VIX 21.20. SPX 3671. Euro 1.2141. Ho, whoa, ho. US dollar index is at 90.71 with the LOD at 90.51 holding. The euro is trying to move up but the dollar is not agreeable to moving lower. 99% of Wall Street analysts are short the dollar and are dabbing beads of sweat off their bald foreheads with a grey handkerchief. Stocks up=VIX down=euro up=dollar down and stocks down=VIX up=euro down=dollar up.

Note Added 6:50 PM EST: VIX 21.28. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3682.73 but then drops to 3658, then finishes the day at 3666, on news at 3:31 PM EST that Pfizer will not meet its vaccine distribution goals this month. Euro 1.2146. US dollar index 90.70. Gold 1844. 10-year yield 0.91%.

GOLD Weekly Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence Developing

Gold. Shiny gold. Back in 1979, John Stewart rhythmically sings about turning music into gold. Keystone called the top in the shiny metal during the summer and down she goes. Note the MACD line, however, always remaining long and strong through those price highs. The neggie d with the other indicators demanded a pullback but the MACD says there are fumes remaining in the gas tank to help price recover at some point in the weeks ahead. Well, several weeks have passed and gold keeps printing lower lows.

But gold bugs, bulls, finally have a glimmer of hope. The stochastics are oversold agreeable to a recovery bounce. Ditto the possie d with the stoch's. The histogram is also positively diverged wanting gold price to recover. Ditto the ROC that feels gold has been beaten enough. The RSI is interesting since it is now possie d over the last 2 weeks although it just dropped into bear territory below 50%; mixed signals.

On the gold bear side, the MACD line is sloping lower forecasting at least a couple-few more weeks of sogginess for gold prices before they can stabilize and bottom.  Ditto the money flow that remains weak and bleak.

Gold price receives a bounce due to the possie d and oversold stochastics and may want to come up to back kiss that important 1850-ish support/resistance level, however, gold would be expected to roll over again for a matching or lower low in price as the indicators all try to set up with possie d.

Everybody and his bro expects the dollar to weaken but the previous chart shows how it will likely rally and then when the short-covering kicks in the upside may get out of control. Gold will suffer as the dollar pops. This behavior would be in sync with gold finishing up this little mini one week or less rally and then rolling back over as the dollar catches a bid. Perhaps the Forex traders will sniff out euro weakness after the ECB meeting next Thursday, 12/10.20. That would push the US dollar higher and perhaps start the dixie shorts to panic.  The big jump higher in the dollar in March resulted in the stock market crash as well as gold falling in retreat.

March redux is likely the path ahead although gold will likely not fall as much as in March since it has already been slapped around. When trouble hit in the spring gold was in a big rally higher. Thus, gold is enjoying some buoyancy as explained above but price should roll back over lower on this weekly basis. Let's talk jog moves. The MACD and money flow may go possie d at the same time which would require a down week so conceivably gold may bottom in a week or two. If money flow turns possie d first, then the MACD, that will require a down week, then back up for a week, then down for a week again for the MACD to go possie d and identify the bottom in gold on the weekly basis. So you can watch the chart to time it out. Gold will bottom say in 1 to 4 weeks and this window can be brought in tighter and tighter each day forward. A lot depends on the dollar that is sitting on a launch pad right now loaded up with possie d fuel. Gold will probably move through 1700-1980 for the next year or three. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

USD DXY US Dollar Weekly Chart; Oversold; Falling Wedge; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation

The US dollar is going to be fun to watch. The weekly chart is set up with oversold conditions, a falling wedge and positive divergence which all say a rocket launch higher is on tap. How can that be?! Blasphemy! Blasphemy I say! Recant! Recant such dribble! 99% of Wall Street is short the dollar so by decree it will not go up and can only go down. Imagine the surprising look that will appear on the dollar shorts faces when the dollar begins ramping higher. The short covering fuel will send the dollar skyward tanking the US stock market a March redux.

The lower standard deviation band is violated so the middle band, the 20-week MA, at 93.08, is on the table and the upper band at 94.71. Once the dollar begins rocking and rolling higher, the flat-moving moving averages will likely become targets. No one is ready for it.

President Lagarde will be conducting the ECB meeting on Thursday, 12/10/20, so the temperature in the room is heating up. Currency traders will be making moves in the days ahead. Will the dollar shorts panic? Europe cannot sustain an ever-increasing euro. Germany is Europe's economic engine; exports are its life's blood. A lower currency helps that countries manufacturing and export industries.

Keystone is not playing the dollar now but has been in on the long side for a couple bounces. The dollar should only be played long. Go against the crowd. Sure, Madame Lagarde may shun stimulus and the euro may float higher further slapping the dollar but the possie d forces in the chart will simply set up again or remain in play. Once the dollar catches a bid, it may never look back. The rally should last a few weeks. The US dollar is at 91.39 slipping away from that key 92 level on this hump day morning. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:00 AM EST: US dollar 91.33. LOD 91.11. Euro 1.20+. S&P futures -11. VIX 21.11. SPX 3662 (all-time record closing high on 12/1/20). 

Note Added 4:23 PM EST: US dollar is at 91.07 at the LOD at 91.07. The dollar is in the fight of its life holding on by a fingernail while all of Wall Street is trying to pull the buck lower. The euro leaps to 1.21 and spurts above but retreats back below to 1.2080. Higher euro means lower dollar. Germany winces each time the euro pops higher. There is drama in currency land. The softness in the dollar provides lift to stocks with the SPX up 7 points, +0.2%, to a new all-time record closing high at 3669.01 on 12/2/20 but not a new all-time high. HOD 3670.96.. ECB President Lagarde drops her blue blazer off at the dry cleaners in preparation for next Thursday's press conference and rate decision. They have to remove a grape jelly stain on the lapel that occurred during the free buffet before the last meeting. Currencies will be key in the days ahead. US dollar is down to 91.05. Is this the Night They Drove Old Dixie Down? . 

Note Added 4:50 PM EST: US dollar loses the 91 level to 90.99. The euro is at 1.2115 printing high at 1.2118.

Note Added Thursday Morning 12/3/20, at 4:17 AM EST: US dollar is at 90.99 after dropping to a low at 90.84. Price is back-kissing the 91 S/R for the last six hours. The buck is deciding to bounce or die from 91. What say you greenback? Euro 1.2109.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 12/3/20, at 6:53 PM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3682.73 but then drops to 3658, then finishes the day at 3666, on news at 3:31 PM EST that Pfizer will not meet its vaccine distribution goals this month. Euro 1.2146. US dollar index 90.70. Gold 1844. 10-year yield 0.91%.

CPCE Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand; SPX Prints All-Time Record High at 3678; Get Outta Dodge

The CPCE put/call ratio prints the unprecedented uber low numbers (highest call-buying in history) for several months signaling rampant complacency and a substantial stock market top at hand. Get out of the stock market on the long side and don't look back. Toss that dough into cash and let it sit there for a few months. The stock market is going to take an ugly turn for the worse and the current highs in stocks will likely not be seen for many months, or years, forward. If you are new to investing and stock trading, get out or you are going to get hurt. Do not be surprised if a flash crash event occurs.

The multi-month uber lows in the put/calls are stunning to look at in the chart above; mind-boggling. This behavior simply does not happen. The stock market is bloated beyond recognition. The SPX prints an all-time record high at 3678.45 and new all-time record closing high at 3662.45 on Tuesday, 12/1/20. The S&P 500's pant's seams and shirt buttons are about to pop due to the 11-1/2 years of obscene feasting on central banker easy money cookies and pie. The stock market is now gorging itself on the last of the fiscal stimulus cake leftover from this year.

Walk away, no, run!, and don't look back. As Sheriff Matt Dillon said on Gunsmoke decades ago "You get outta Dodge." The stock market is best played from the short side going forward. The Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long so it will be key when the quant flips short. Economic and market history is unfolding before your eyes in real-time. You have a front row seat. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 12/3/20, at 4:35 AM EST: Stocks remain elevated not knowing which way to turn. Over the last two days, the SPX prints an all-time high at 3678 and an all-time closing high at 3669. The happy hype around vaccines and fiscal stimulus continue. The bulls keep promising wine and roses ahead. GS analyst David Kostin promises investors the world going forward forecasting the SPX to tag 3700 by year end (19 trading days remaining in 2020), 4300 by the end of next year and 4600 by the end of 2022 (within the next 25 months). On average, Kostin believes the S&P 500 will gain a 1,000 points in 25 months or 40 points per month for the next two years straight. That qualifies as uber bullish. Bob Shiller, the Nobel Laureate, a typical two-handed economist (on one hand...then on the other hand....), says, "Stock prices may not be as absurd as people think." Shiller's CAPE ratio is at levels where other stock market tops occurred but he obviously goes against his own data. That is funny. The party is in full swing. Here, have a swig of Fed wine, it's good stuff; it gives you liquid courage to buy stocks. Are you having fun at Party Town? Everyone wants to rock 'n roll all night, and party every day. Hey, whazzzat? Did you hear that? It sounds like someone is locking the exit doors. Hey, where did that Keystone guy go? He was standing here a minute ago.

Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 12/3/20, at 6:35 PM EST: Stocks roll over on news that the Pfizer vaccine will not meet distribution goals this month. The SPX prints an all-time high at 3682.73, call it 3683, and ends the day at 3666. The happy hype around vaccines (sans Pfizer/BioNTech) and fiscal stimulus continue. The bulls keep promising wine and roses ahead. The AAII bearish sentiment reading is 22.7% the least bearish, since January, when the stock market was topping-out. At the same time the bullish sentiment is over 49% when 38% is the typical average. The AAII is a contrarian indicator. In other words, the crowd is typically wrong and right now the bulls are partying like its 1999, as Prince would sing, and the bears doubt anything bad will happen either, the bears have capitulated and joined the bull party. It never ends well when everyone is partying on one side of the boat; the Sloop John B can't hold all the bulls.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; SPX Prints All-Time Record High at 3678

Wheeee! Whooopie! Whheeee!. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3676.22. Lame-duck Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell are testifying before the Senate today promising more easy money for as far as the eye can see. Stocks go wild. A bipartisan task force in Congress pushes forward a stimulus bill for $900 billion for consideration so bullish traders are tripping over each other buying stocks at the ask. What a glorious and most joyous par-tay. The Fed wine is flowing like water.

There is only one problem. The joy comes with negative divergence, overbot conditions and a rising wedge pattern that say a spankdown is on tap in this 2-hour time frame. The chart just started the current candlestick at 12 PM EST, noon, sammich time. The next candlestick begins at 2 PM and then one will print at the close.

It would be fantastical if the stock market topped out here. Why? The S&P 500 placed its low March 2009 at the infamous 666 and closing low at 676. Fast forward 11-1/2 years, and after all the insane Keynesian money-printing that has made the wealthy class filthy rich, the HOD today is 3676 and perhaps a closing price at 3666.

The expectation is for a top right now and pullback to begin from here. We shall see if the neggie d on the daily and weekly charts kick in although that MACD on the weekly is creeping higher. The bears are ready to make a run for it; here they come. Do they have any juice? Mnuchin and Powell are starting to talk faster and are waving their arms wildly proclaiming that they will provide any amount of money necessary to keep the stock market turd floating. The politicians have sold their souls and all become caricatures of themselves. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:24 PM EST: Powell burps from a slice of peperoni and it sounds like he said stimulus so the SPX is up 47 points, +1.3%, to 3669. All Praise, Honor and Glory to Pope Powell and all Central Bankers; Modern-Day Money God's They Are. So let it be written, so let it be done.

Note Added 12:33 PM EST: .SPX 3671. Stocks continue higher. Mnuchin must be throwing dollar bills in the air proclaiming that fiscal stimulus will fall from the heavens forever, well, at least until 1/20/21 when he loses his job but fear not, Yellen, Queen of the Doves takes over next and she will try to provide mountains of fiscal stimulus (only if the two Georgia Senate elections go the democrats way on 1/5/21). VIX 20.33. VIX LOD is 20.00 so watch to see if a 19-handle prints. 

Note Added 12:40 PM EST: SPX 3666. VIX 20.42. Come on boys, flush the b*stard. It's the afternoon and Daylight's Fading. They're jammin' AMZN higher to keep the indexes elevated but its like trying to pass around a Sumo wrestler in a mosh pit.

Note Added 1:40 PM EST: Wheee! Whooopie! President-Elect Biden introduces his economic team and nominates Janet Yellen, Queen of the Doves, as the next Treasury Secretary. Yellen begins speaking and the crowd goes wild. Easy money begins falling from the rafters The SPX rocket launches from 3666 to 3675 almost at the all-time record high. The bulls are buying stocks hand over fist to prove their loyalty to Yellen and the Keynesian way of life. The VIX is a bit soggy but remains steady and begins higher again now at 20.35 and climbing. That's funny. The stock market keeps moving euphorically higher but the VIX is not moving any lower intraday. One of them is wrong. The SPX 2-hour chart above remains negatively diverged but the bulls are trying to squeeze the RSI a bit higher over the last couple hours to try and keep the turd floating into the closing bell.

Note Added 1:49 PM EST: Oh my. This is hilarious. Wharton economics Professor Jeremy Siegel is on Bloomberg and he is always Mr Bull so the crowd goes wild again. Siegel promises big earnings beats next year which means perpetual stock market joy. Wheeee! Whoopie! SPX 3674. VIX 20.38.

Note Added 1:54 PM EST: SPX 3672. VIX 20.40.

Note Added 2:04 PM EST: SPX 3674. A new 2-hour candlestick begins and the neggie d remains. Blow on it and it should fall over. Price is teasing that all-time high at 3676.22. VIX 20.35. We are now in the month of December. The November Rain never came, instead we see rainbows and candy canes;  now, perhaps A Long December begins.

Note Added 2:12 PM EST: SPX 3675. VIX 20.43. The last 65-minute trading segment begins at 2:55 PM EST so watch to see if a boatload of sell orders hit in that 2:50 to 3:00 PM window, or not.

Note Added 2:16 PM EST: SPX 3678. VIX 20.42. The SPX rocket launches higher. Yellen cleared her throat and it sounded like she said stimulus so the bulls are buying with reckless abandon and the SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3678.45 at 2:16 PM EST. Floor traders break out in song praising the Glory, Majesty and Power of Heir Yellen. The VIX is not as excited and holds steady at 20.44 instead of dropping.

Note Added 9:16 PM EST: Sell programs came into the market late-day but the joy and hype for vaccines and fiscal stimulus rules the day. The SPX ends the day up 41 points, +1.1%, to 3662.45 a new all-time record closing high and 3678.45 is an all-time high. Sound the Seven Trumpets!.

TSLA Tesla Weekly Chart; Ovebot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

TSLA is Tesla, the glorified golf cart maker, that is topping out on the weekly basis. The best fade on Wall Street are the guys that pick the stocks that enter and exit the major indexes. They are always incorrect. If a stock is booted from an index, it is sure to rally to the moon over the following year. If a stock is taken into an index, it folds like a cheap suit, and instead of the index receiving the phony bump higher or at least receiving support to remain elevated, the new stock creates a negative weight on the index.

The big news is Tesla driving into the S&P 500, the US stock market, the SPX, come 12/21/20 (12/21 is a palindrome). TSLA tags 599 this morning on the news that the addition will occur all at once rather than in two tranches. Sounds like a date CEO Elon Musk would prefer and perhaps he will make a statement the night before at 4:20 (420). By the looks of the chart, humorously, that is where TSLA is likely headed, down to 420, as the S&P 500 bulls will watch in horror during the coming weeks and months.

TSLA has exploded +40% higher since the 11/16/20 announcement that Tesla would be included in the S&P 500. Flags are waved, banners raised, dogs and cats are living together. TSLA enjoys a +580% rally this year making Musk a wealthy man. TSLA is the biggest company ever added to the SPX and will be the seventh largest company in the index. Market liquidity and TSLA liquidity is a concern when the 12/21/20 inclusion date rolls around. 

The bulls cite China sales, along with US sales, as strong drivers of bullish stock prices going forward. On the bear side, do you think all the folks that wanted a Tesla already ran out and bought one? Maybe. Why would you buy an electric car when there is a gas station on every corner? That's stupid. And do not say for environmental reasons since fossil fuels produce the electricity that is its fuel and a boatload of chemicals, resins, plastics, paints and metals go into producing the car.

In China, Musk is in the wine and roses phase right now just before the filthy communist's b*tch slap him as they have all other US companies. The only reason the commies lay out the red carpet for Musk is the technology. China is handing all of Tesla's factory know-how to the Chinese rivals; that is why they wanted the plant built there. Duh. In a few weeks or months, once the dirtbag Chinese IP thieves feel they have raped all knowledge from the Tesla plant possible, they will send in the regulators to start nitpicking the plant. Tesla will experience shutdowns of a few days at a time. The hassles against Tesla will increase as the other Chinese electric carmakers gain share and takeover.

A couple years from now, Tesla will be an empty shell tossed upon the Chinese shore. Musk is not that dumb, so he must either plan to skate away from Tesla asap so he is not around for what he knows will happen as well, or, perhaps he is that stupid, like Cook at AAPL, laying in bed with China thinking that the playing field is fair and everyone can benefit. Never lay in bed with a filthy communist; they will slit your throat in the middle of the night.

The red rising wedge is ominous since the collapses from these patterns can be quite dramatic. The stochastics, money flow and RSI are overbot or coming off overbot levels. The red lines show negative divergence across all chart indicators, sans the MACD, as price makes the matching and higher highs. A neggie d smackdown is on the come but the long and strong MACD line adds a little drama. Considering the MACD, TSLA should pullback on the weekly basis but perhaps only for a week or two, then back up for another matching or higher price high and, at that time, the MACD should be neggie d, so a longer multi-week down move will begin. The other outcome is that TSLA simply begins falling now and the MACD will follow it down.

The TSLA inclusion will cause disruption with money managers selling other positions to buy TSLA since many are obligated to own the major stocks in the indexes. It is dicey how it will work out over the next 3 weeks but regardless, the charts are not pretty for the future.

Price tagged the upper standard deviation band right now at 568 so the middle band, the 20-week MA, at 413, and rising, is on the table, as well as the lower band at 257. Price is extended above its moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed.

The Aroon green line is at maximum overbot levels and the red line is at maximum oversold levels both indicating that the party is in full swing with maximum euphoric bullishness occurring with Tesla. Analysts tout the stock as a glorious buy that will grow to the sky but when you ask them if they own a Tesla car they say, "who, me?" The Aroon lines will converge creating a negative cross (red circle in margin) which will verify the ongoing selloff on a weekly basis.

The ADX is at 54 indicating that the rally this year is verified as a strong trend higher. When TSLA rolls over going forward, the ADX will likely roll over as well and likely negate that strong trend when the ADX drops below 30. The ADX is only flat as price rockets higher which indicates that the strong trend is waning.

TSLA should top out and roll over on the weekly basis starting anytime. Perhaps the shorter-duration charts can pinpoint when. Looking at the TSLA daily chart, it is displaying neggie d and agreeable to a pullback on the daily basis going forward. Price is above the standard deviation lines for 9 days running; that's wild. It represents off-the-charts euphoric bullishness. The 2-hour chart topped out yesterday on negative divergence and should remain weak in the hourly time frame. 

TSLA can be shorted right now and going forward butt it is likely best to scale-in because of the MACD line. If prices continue floating higher, simply add to the shorts. Of course use physical or mental stops depending on your risk tolerance but this puppy is about to become soggy and begin a multi-week down move. S&P futures are up +36 before the Tuesday open so the bulls want to do more partying today.

On the TSLA monthly chart, the MACD remains long and strong so after the multi-week pullback, Tesla may launch another rally to bring price back up to current highs one or two months out. At that time, the long-term multi-month and multi-year top is in for the much-hyped Tesla. In other words, Tesla is topping out now over the next couple weeks, on the weekly basis, so a multi-week down move will occur, but the door remains open for price to come back up on the monthly chart, say in late December or early January, and that should be THE top, if THE top is not occurring right now for months, and perhaps years to come, on a long-term basis. Keystone is not long or short TSLA and will probably not play it since it is a psycho stock. If you dabble, only do so on the short side. It may be a wild ride all over the place into the 12/21/20 inclusion.

The S&P 500 is booting a stock from the index since TSLA is coming in and will announce that stock on 12/11/20. That is the stock you want to go long. Those folks are the best fades. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:36 AM EST: Wheee! Whoopie! Powell and lame-duck Mnuchin are testifying to the Senate promising that more easy money is on the way. TSLA is up +1.5% to 576.34. HOD 597.85 not as high as the pre-market.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 12/3/20, at 4:30 AM EST: Musk is telling employees to find ways to cut costs so the company can become more profitable going forward and meet Wall Street expectations. GS says TSLA will jump +30% next year from 455 prior target to 780. Of course they do; they probably own a boatload. They want everyone else to remain excited so they can distribute the shares as price moves higher on hype, if it does. TSLA sits at 568 down -3% this week thus far with a low at 541.TSLA bounces +3% on the GS news to 584.

NKE Nike Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

NKE is Nike that is topping out on the weekly basis. The red rising wedge is ominous since the collapses from these patterns can be quite dramatic. The stochastics, money flow and RSI are overbot or coming off overbot levels. The red lines show negative divergence across all chart indicators as price makes the matching or higher highs 3 of the last 4 weeks. A neggie d smackdown is on the come.

Price tagged the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, the 20-week MA, at 119.47, is on the table, as well as the lower band at 96. Both bands are moving sharply vertical to meet price as it comes down. Price is extended above its moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. All the above parameters are bearish. In addition, it helps that everybody and his bro are bullish Nike. A talking suit on television the other day told everyone they are stupid unless they go all-in with NKE with maximum margin. Of course he did because he is selling his shares (actually his buddy is doing the selling so they can keep the prying eyes of the SEC away). Pump and dump.

The Aroon green line is at maximum overbot levels and the red line is at maximum oversold levels both indicating that the party is in full swing with maximum euphoric bullishness occurring. Logo and brand worshipping enthusiasts are walking around with their chests puffed out displaying a Nike check mark on their tee shirt and hat. They walk confidently in their red and orange Nike tennis shoes only advertising the fact that they gave the shoemaker lots of money as they seek their 15 minutes of Andy Warhol fame. Humans are funny animals. The Aroon lines will converge creating a negative cross (red circle in margin) which will verify the ongoing selloff on a weekly basis.

The ADX is at 41 indicating that the rally from August to present is verified as a strong trend higher. Humorously, it is the only bullish, or positive, thing on the whole chart. When NKE rolls over going forward, the ADX will likely roll over as well and likely negate that strong trend when the ADX drops below 30.

NKE, like the XLY ETF, of which Nike is a component, should roll over on the weekly basis starting anytime. Perhaps the shorter-duration charts can pinpoint when. Looking at the NKE daily chart, it is displaying neggie d and agreeable to a pullback on the daily basis going forward. Ditto the 2-hour chart that topped out last Friday morning. 

NKE, and XLY, can be shorted right now and going forward. If prices continue floating higher, simply add to the shorts. Of course use physical or mental stops depending on your risk tolerance but these puppies are about to begin a multi-week down move. S&P futures are up +36 before the Tuesday open so the bulls want to do more partying today.

On the NKE monthly chart, the MACD remains long and strong so after the multi-week pullback, Nike may launch another rally to bring price back up to current highs one or two months out. At that time, the long-term multi-month and multi-year top is in for mighty Nike. In other words, Nike is topping out now over the next couple months, on a long-term basis. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:40 AM EST: NKE gains +0.4% to 135.25. The rest of the market is outperforming. Nike is trying to run higher but it must have a small stone stuck in its orange tennis shoe.

XLY Consumer Discretionary Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Price Extended

The XLY is the consumer discretionary ETF that is topping out on the weekly basis. The red rising wedge is ominous since the collapses from these patterns can be quite dramatic. The stochastics and RSI are overbot or coming off overbot levels. The red lines show negative divergence across all chart indicators as price makes the matching or higher highs 3 of the last 4 weeks. A neggie d smackdown is on the come.

Price tagged the upper standard deviation band, and came back for a middle band touch, but then rallied again to the current highs a whisker away from the top band again. This has to be respected for the days ahead so 160.55 may occur, but if it does that would be even a better level to put on shorts. Price is extended above its moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. All the above parameters are bearish.

The Aroon green line is at maximum overbot levels and the red line is at maximum oversold levels both indicating that the party is in full swing with maximum euphoric bullishness occurring. The Aroon lines will converge creating a negative cross (red circle in margin) which will verify the ongoing selloff on a weekly basis.

During the February-March crash early this year, the ADX was on the verge of showing that the downside was a strong trend (above 30) but it did not. Instead, the Fed ran to the rescue as usual, printing money like madmen to protect the wealthy class that own the US stock market. The crony capitalism takes on additional life with Congress approving fiscal stimulus (which is currently ending) and the double-whammy of easy money sends equities to historic new highs. The ADX number does not move above 30 during this long upside orgy in the consumer discretionary stocks as well as the broad stock market from March. This tells you that the epic record-setting rally off the March low is phony-baloney from a fundamental standpoint. The economy and stock market is only goosed by the easy money these last few months. The stock market patient is kept alive on the Fed's heroin.

XLY should roll over on the weekly basis starting anytime. Perhaps the shorter-duration charts can pinpoint when. Looking at the XLY daily chart, it is displaying neggie d and agreeable to a pullback on the daily basis going forward. The XLY 2-hour chart shows the nice top that was an easy call with neggie d last Friday morning. Futures are up this morning, and price was recovering so watch the 2-hour to see if the 160+ number prints. Anything above 158.50 is bueno to short from. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's so a sustainable breach above 158 will likely lead to 162. A short can be scaled into with one-third of the position now, then in a few days another third, then in a few days after that the final third.

Since XLY is setting up for a multi-week pullback that means the components must be as well, right? Well, let's take a quick look at the weekly charts. AMZN has been staggering sideways since July. The standard deviation bands are coming in tighter so Amazon may in for a very sharp move. The MACD line remains weak and bleak. HD is same as Scamazon with bands coming in tight and indicators sloping lower. Same-o for LOW. Ditto MCD. SBUX is similar but the MACD line is long and strong so it will remain elevated another couple weeks. 

NKE is topping out like the XLY chart above. You can short NKE now. If you made a bunch on Nike over the last few months or years, git while the gittin' is good. She's topping out on the weekly and NKE will likely fall from the current 135 to the 110-130 area over the next couple weeks or month. TGT is setting up for a short but not yet. Target shows a long and strong MACD line on the weekly so it will not top out for a couple more weeks so put it on your short list for then.

XLY and NKE can be shorted right now and going forward. If prices continue floating higher, simply add to the shorts. Of course use physical or mental stops depending on your risk tolerance but these puppies are about to begin a multi-week down move. Lump the AMZN, HD, LOW and MCD in the same camp where they are expected to roll over lower with the broad market as the selling begins. Put SBUX and TGT on your short list for 2 weeks from now. The plays from the above are XLY and NKE on the short side now and cash out of them if you made a lot of dough on the long side. In 2 weeks, look to short SBUX and TGT depending on how the charts set up. Keystone does not own XLY or NKE short right now but will look for entries today and going forward on the short side as well as trading in and out as usual.

On the XLY monthly chart, the MACD remains long and strong so after the multi-week pullback, XLY may launch another rally to bring price back up to current highs one or two months out. At that time, the long-term multi-month and multi-year top is in for XLY. In other words, XLY is topping out now over the next couple months, on a long-term basis. As the selling on the weekly basis begins, volatility will spike higher which will lead to huge up and down days, and intraday, in stocks and indexes. One potential path is for XLY to nosedive to 135 in quick order (over the next few weeks), then a spike recovery higher to 155-ish, say in late December or early January, then it completely dies. The charts will light the way. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:45 AM EST: XLY moves +0.2% higher to 157.64. HOD 158.58. The rest of the market is outperforming in a big way. The smart money is exiting stage right. How many gold rings, diamond bracelets and fur coats does girlie need? How many electronic gadgets, tools and vacations does sonny need? AMZN is down -0.2% which explains the sogginess in XLY.