There are three things that are certain in life; death, taxes and the ladies worshiping at Oprah's altar. WTW exploded higher when Oprah bot a stake in Weight Watchers and began hawking it on television in early 2017; a parabolic move in stock price followed. Oprah creates buying power in her products, services, media offerings and even stock prices. Oprah lays the golden eggs, however, after the top last summer, that egg she laid is not gold.
WTW runs from 10 to a hundo in only 1-1/2 year; a 10-bagger. That will buy a lot of bon-bon's and chocolate doughnuts. They should call the stock WOW. Oprah was pumping Weight watchers in television ads. They would wrap her limbs in cellophane and squeeze her into a black leotard; always black or vertical stripes to hide the fat. The women loved it and WTW profits soar. It doesn't matter that the pounds lost are minimal, the name-branding of Oprah attracts hoards of buyers.
Alas, all good things come to an end and the stock peaked with the rising wedge, overbot conditions and neggie d across the indicators (red lines and arrow). Only a fool that did not look at the chart was holding that stock last spring and summer. So down she goes. Oprah made a booboo. The Einstein's changed the name of Weight Watchers to WW. Obviously, they want to branch out in other areas, products and services so they needed a more generic name. With the Weight Watchers moniker, it is a given that the only thing you do is watch people's weight. The WW name change has exacerbated the move lower in stock price. Everyone recognized the Weight Watchers brand but now when you say "WW" people say, "Who?"
Price violated the lower standard deviation band in late October and has needed to show respect to the middle band, now at 39 and dropping, for 5 months. Price tried to find support at the 200-week MA but that failed after a 3-week stutter-step. The stock is falling down through the downward-sloping channel. WTW then tumbles into the blue circle. Those are the stockholders holding on for the earnings report hoping and praying, praying and hoping for the stock price to rally. Their heads were lopped-off and served on a platter.
Interestingly, the chart was set up beautifully with positive divergence across all indicators right before the earnings. It was ready to bounce higher. The earnings, however, crashed the stock -30%. That is the two big red candlesticks taking it to the present price at 19.44. When a chart is set up that nice for a bounce, the only thing that can scuttle the pop is bad company news and this includes earnings reports. Before placing any trade, check and make sure you are aware of when the company releases earnings. For WTW, despite the nice set-up a week or so ago, the trade would not have been placed on the long side due to the imminent earnings release, especially for a company like this. They do not make widgets but instead they try to eliminate fat from client's bodies a more esoteric endeavor. Earnings releases can be a crap-shoot.
The purple line shows important price support from 2017 at the 18.2-18.3-ish level. What is so fascinating about a potential long play in WTW is that Oprah is involved. You know that she is going to be shoe-horned into black spandex and shown jogging or bicycling in television ads to save this flailing stock. Hopefully, she does not injure herself due to carrying all that weight. But once Oprah starts the hype machine, there may be a repeat of the 2017 parabolic move obviously not as dramatic but perhaps a nice +10% or +20% pop off the bottom. These are the things speculator's think about.
This weekend, Oprah may be on television commercials trying to save the brand. The chart is set up with positive divergence except for the RSI and MACD. Typically, you want to give a ticker lots of time after such a bloodbath and it would be a no-touch but since Oprah is in this stock, that is a horse of a different color. For those willing to take an elevated risk, WTW can be bot now. Oprah may begin her Weight Watchers cheerleading campaign at any time.
However, the chart likely needs a jog move to position the RSI and MACD with possie d. This would be up one week, then down the next for another matching or lower low. At that time, price may want to kiss that 18.3-ish area. So if you buy now, WTW may still retreat a buck. Chances are however, Oprah is going to be prancy-ing her plumpness across television screens touting how healthy Weight Watchers will make you, so this may be the catalyst to ignite the possie d rocket fuel. Keystone does not own WTW but is tempted to buy it now or next week or perhaps both.
The WTW daily chart shows price coming down with indicators positively-sloped. When price prints the lower low that will be possie d and it will be ready to rally. Ditto on the 2-hour chart. At sub-19, which may occur today, Keystone will buy it and see what happens. Oprah, start squeezing yourself into something that makes you look skinny and shake that money-maker to pump the WTW stock price higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added at 2:21 PM: WTW did not fall as expected at the open and did not print sub-19. Considering the weakness in the stock market, this was surprising. Then, price rocket-launched higher. Many traders likely have the same idea as above and are waiting for Oprah to bounce her pom-pom's as she sashays across the television screen hyping Weight Watchers commercials. Keystone is watching it and wants sub-19. WTW may take off higher without him. Keystone will likely buy it next week (or today if it flushes lower into the bell). WTW is at 19.58 with a HOD at 19.98, call it 20, and a LOD at 19.10.
Keystone's SPX 12-month MA cross signal determines if the stock market is in a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear. The 12-month MA is at 2743 and price is at 2750 so a cyclical bull market is ahead for the weeks and months forward. However, the LOD today is 2742 so that was a cyclical bear market signal albeit for only a few minutes. The battle at 2743 continues to and fro and determines the fate of the stock market for the intermediate term and perhaps longer-term. Bulls win above 2744. Bears win below 2742. Price took a look at 2742 today and may want to take another.
The 10-month MA at 2757 is a key level that old-timer's watch. It is also programmed into many algorithms as is the 12-mth MA. When the 2757 failed, at 9:45 AM, stocks are in trouble. The bulls can only prove that they have recovered if they move above 2757. If they fail to push above 2757, price will slump back down for another test of 2743 and another bounce or die decision. If 2743 fails, it's lights out. The negative slope with the 6-month MA is bearish for the stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 7:27 AM EST, Friday Morning, 3/8/19: The SPX ran higher intraday yesterday up to the 2757 resistance and popped to 2760 but this was short-lived, and the SPX rolled over to the downside from 1 PM forward. Price then comes down to test the key support at 2743, and fails, but this was short-lived, and the SPX bounces into the closing bell finishing at 2749. The drama continues.
Note Added 5:00 AM EST, Monday Morning, 3/11/19: The SPX remained buoyant on Friday ending the week at ..... wait for it ........ wait a little bit longer for it ......... a bit longer.........2743.07. The 12-month MA is 2742.82. It is a game of pennies. The drama continues. The stock market is in a cyclical (weeks and months ahead) bull market pattern going forward but only by 25 cents. Obviously, the battle continues.
PAAS is a buy on the 2-hour with very nice possie d in place across all indicators. The oversold conditions and falling wedge area also bullish indications. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
MUX was a fun ride higher off the positive divergence bottom a month ago. That move printed a gap (blue circle) and then a bull flag pattern took price up to the 2 level. That was sell time due to the rising wedge, overbot conditions and neggie d (red lines). A more subtle pullback was expected but instead price collapsed lower.
MUX may want to test the prior low from this week (green circle). A drop to the gap at 1.63-1.66 cannot be ruled out. Everything is likely a buy between 1.625 and 1.680. Even now is worth a buy. Keystone will reenter MUX on the long side. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
All eyes are on the euro ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision (1:45 PM Frankfurt and Central Europe; 12:45 PM London; 7:45 AM EST) and President Draghi press conference (2:30 PM Frankfurt and Central Europe; 1:30 PM London; 8:30 AM EST) in three hours. That chart above is a big bowl of spaghetti.
Just as there is a fine line between love and hate, there is a fine line between a descending triangle and a falling wedge. These two chart patterns forecast opposite directions the red descending triangle obviously hinting at failure while the falling wedge is hinting at a bullish rally higher, respectively. With the ECB decision imminent, it is a coin-flip. The ECB is going to crank-up the TLTRO (targeted longer-term refinancing operations) program again. King Draghi may proclaim dovishness across the land. That should lead to a drop in the euro and make euro bears happy and the descending triangle would be in play.
The vertical sides of the triangle pattern are about 5 or 6 points so a failure from 1.13 would set the course to 1.07-1.08 for the weeks ahead. There is a juicy gap at 108 that will need filled at some point in the future. The green falling wedge is a bullish pattern that predicts a break-out higher and several weeks of upside ahead.
The red lines show the top in the euro that Keystone called in early 2018. Price prints out a new high but the indicators are all sloping down with neggie d (negative divergence; price continues higher but the indicators are diverging down in the opposite direction; this indicates that price is out of gas). The green lines show the lower low in price in November and that was met with possie d (positive divergence; price makes a new low but the indicators are sloping higher fueled-up and ready for a rally) that created a bounce and lift in price. With all the ongoing global turmoil, Europe's economy weakening, the Brexit mess, etc.., the euro staggers sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night. The indicators are all lining out sideways as well.
Note the standard deviation bands squeezing-in tight (purple bands and arrows). There is a big move coming in the euro over the next couple weeks or so that will send price in that direction for the weeks ahead. Tight bands, however, only indicate that a large price move is about to occur but do not predict direction. Sometimes there will be a fake-out move for a week or so with a sharp hint in one direction but then pirce sharply reverses in the opposite direction. About 2 to 4 weeks from now, it should be obvious what direction the euro has chosen due to the tight bands and that direction will likely continue for several weeks. Tight bands are like squeezing a tube of toothpaste. You know that a huge mess of toothpaste is about to explode as the cap flies open but you don't know what direction it will fly.
The ADX shows that the trend higher in the euro in the back half of 2017 and first half of 2018 was strong but that petered out by springtime 2018. The ADX muddles sideways at 24 indicating that the price action does not have a strong trend currently, which jives with the ongoing sideways indecision. This would be expected over the last couple-few weeks since all are waiting on this important ECB decision and King Draghi presser today. The central bankers are the market.
The blue circles show a congestion area at 1.12. Note how the euro came down to kiss this level in November at that low. That print remains the lowest low for the euro over the last 21 months. Obviously, if the euro loses the 1.12 level, there will be H*ll to pay.
So whats all this mumbo jumbo mean? There are three scenarios; first, the red descending triangle plays out, the euro collapses from the 1.13 baseline it is at now, through 1.12 and will target 1.07-1.08 say, in late March, April or May to fill that big gap. Second, the rising wedge pattern sends price higher, the euro breaks up through 1.14 and starts ramping strongly higher. Those moving average levels above all serve as upside targets for the weeks ahead.
Third, since King Draghi is about to assemble his court of central banker jesters, the euro may weaken in the days and week or so ahead then rally after that. The euro is at 1.13 and you can see that there is room down to the 1.12 support. The lower band is at 1.126. The euro may want to suck in the bears with this initial move lower for a week or so after Draghi opines this morning, but the euro will then subsequently bounce strongly and break-out of the rising wedge to the upside. Since the euro may rally for a few weeks or month or three (after the initial drop), the US dollar index would be moving lower, say, into April-May.
The third scenario is the most likely currently but Keystone does not have any trades on with the euro right now. No trades are planned but if the euro is at say 1.12-ish next week, and the chart is set up similarly, a long trade on euro may be prudent. Global investors await Emperor Draghi to arrive at the Temple, outstretch his right arm like Julius Caesar, and provide a thumbs-up or thumbs-down for investors. Such is the modern-day joke of a financial system. The central bankers are the market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 9:37 AM EST: The US stock market opens and equities are off and stumbling. ECB President Draghi is flapping his dovish wings more than expected. The euro drops -0.6% on the session to 1.1238 tagging that lower standard deviation band and teasing the 1.12 support. The US dollar index is above 97 and climbing. US stocks are soggy with the SPX slipping a few points. Ho, whoa, ho, S&P 500 now down 12 points, -0.4%, to 2760. The Dow is puking 124 points.
Note Added 7:35 AM EST on Friday Morning, 3/8/19: The euro weakens after King Draghi's presser yesterday. The euro drops to the key 1.12 level, and prints a 1.11-handle, but recovers to 1.1213. The euro is making the bounce or die decision at the blue line.
The S&P 500 bottomed at the infamous '666', the mark of the beast, on 3/6/2009, at 3:15 PM EST, which remains the all-time record low. The SPX then popped +20% off that bottom over the next 2 weeks and is now up more than +300% off that bottom. The central bankers are the market.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke intervened in markets in March 2009 to protect the wealthy class that own huge equity portfolios; this monetary policy decision saved the stock market at 666. The Fed began printing money like madman to flood the world's financial system with liquidity. This Keynesian money-printing pumps the stock market higher for a sold decade. The money has to flow somewhere and it floats into equities and many other asset classes that are now in bubbles such as real estate, vineyards, art, antique cars, collectibles, etc..
The Fed and other global central banker's accomodative monetary policies have done nothing to help the common person in fact the middle class has disappeared in the US. Americans suffer through high debt and lack of job opportunities. The so-called job gains are low-paying jobs. The Fed's money-printing, however, has made the wealthy class filthy rich since the easy money funds buybacks that pump stock prices higher. The elite class makes millions effortlessly by tapping computer keys; they do not even break a sweat. On the other side of the tracks, one-half of America does not own a single share of stock.
Former Fed Chair Yellen, Queen of the Doves, continued the Keynesian money game. Each time the stock market printed a stutter-step, the central bankers came to the rescue with more dovish talk and this behavior continues in 2019. The global central bankers including the Fed, ECB, BOJ, PBOC, BOE, RBA, etc... act in collusion daily to keep the Keynesian game going as long as possible.
As long as global investors trust the central bankers and believe in their policies and maintain confidence, all is fine. When confidence and credibility in the Fed and other central bankers is lost, all is lost. This is why Powell's about-face with policy late last year into early this year is so perplexing; you would think confidence would be lost with such a debacle but no, instead the band plays on. Perhaps a delayed market reaction is on tap due to Powell's missteps?
The central bankers perform the bidding of the investment bankers, politicians, Wall Street bigshots and other corporate executives, all part of the elite privileged class, because they are rewarded with lucrative kickbacks once they leave public office and return to private life. The Wall Street investment banks will pay a former Fed official $250K for showing up at a luncheon and belching a token speech, however, everyone knows it is another day of nudge, nudge, wink, wink, know what I mean, know what i mean? The speaking gig is simply a kickback payment to reward the central bank official for many months or years of promoting dovish policies (which pump the stock market higher); a quid pro quo.
Chairman Powell has jumped aboard the Keynesian bandwagon with both feet and is spending his lunch hour in the basement of the Eccles Building personally running a printing press. After work, he walks along the city streets, spreading money across the sidewalks. The world is awash in liquidity.
The wealthy privileged class has raped the nation for all its worth over the last five decades and switched on the afterburners during the last 10 years. The elites are exiting the market leaving Joe and Jane Sucka to hold the future bag. The divide between rich and poor in America is the widest in five decades. Once the recession hits, a rich versus poor class war will surely follow. Payback will be a b*tch.
Always remember, the central bankers are the market. America's financial system is best described as a "faux free market crony capitalism system." Plain and simple, capitalism failed in the US because of the lack of transparency. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
This is interesting. Typically, about two-thirds of the time, stocks are weak moving through the new moon each month. The new moon peaks at 11:03 AM EST today (blue circle).
Conversely, the stock market is typically bullish through the full moon each month. The full moon peaks in two weeks on Wednesday, 3/20/19, at 9:42 PM EST. The FOMC decision and press conference is the same day in the afternoon. Perhaps Chairman Powell will be flapping his dovish wings like a madman. Stocks are bullish 80% of the time into the Fed meetings so this would be late Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, 3/18, 3/19 and 3/20, respectively.
So the stock market background current will be moving in a bullish direction the week of 3/18. Perhaps there may be sogginess from now into much of next week. Then a big rally may be on tap for the FOMC festivities. Powell may drop money from helicopters proclaiming that the easy money will continue forever or at least as long as he is king of the Fed. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, flips to the bear side before lunchtime at SPX 2776. As always, remain alert for a potential whipsaw.
Keybot the Quant
The BPSPX moves above the key 70% level a couple weeks ago providing another bullish signal for the stock market. The BPSPX had already reversed six percentage-points off the uber low to begin the year, the initial buy signal, and stocks have not looked back. The Federal Reserve and other global central bankers are in collusion keeping the markets elevated to provide time for the world's elite to lock in profits and slowly exit. Joe Sucka is always willing to hold the bag.
For now, the bulls continue to rule as per the BPSPX metric. To confirm substantive downside, the bears must push price below 70%. That will verify an ongoing selling pattern and point to lower lows ahead. A reversal of six percentage-points off that red-line top is 67.6. If the BPSPX falls below 67.6, Katy bar the door, the stock market will be in, or about to fall into, a significant drop.
The bulls simply need to keep the BPSPX above 70 and they will continue to rule the stock market going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 4:08 PM EST: The BPSPX ends the session at 72.20 with the SPX at 2771. Keep watching 70.00 and 67.60.
Note Added 7:34 AM EST on Friday Morning, 3/8/19: The BPSPX droops to...... wait for it..... keep waiting for it........ a bit longer .......... yes, 70.00. Friday is a big day and the Jobs Report is imminent.
The band plays its fifteenth encore as the stock market refuses to roll over. Weakness occurs in the SPX as per the neggie d and price comes up again due to that sliver of juice remaining in the MACD line. That MACD energy is now gone with the matching price high; the MACD finally slopes lower into negative divergence with the matching high in price. The top is in for the daily time frame although there are always caveats. The main two are obviously the happy US-China trade talk and the global central banker collusion. These two energy machines are the fuel behind the two-month record-setting rally. Never forget, the central bankers are the market.
Price has momentum closing at the highs. The money flow and RSI are trying to squeeze out a tiny bit more juice but both are in negative divergence for the several-day time frame. The blue line is 2815-ish resistance where price came up to touch last week. This matches the major tests of this resistance from October and November. The television faces keep talking about 2800 but this is simply a psychological level as are all whole numbers. This 2815-ish is far more important. Thus, price may want to pop 10 handles to kiss it again.
That upper band limit at 2824 has to be left on the table due to the Friday momo. The S&P 500 has not yet shown respect to the middle band after the upper band was already violated so the 2757 remains firmly on the table as well as the lower band at 2690.
The Keystone Speculator's 80/20 Rule also remains in play. 8's typically lead to 2's, so the move above 2780 opened the door to 2820 which is only a handful of points away from last week's high. 2818 would open the door to 2822 so keep an eye out concerning that 2818 level. Thus, price may want to spurt to 2815-2824 for a quick look-see but that would likely be short-lived even if it occurs.
Friday's action is a hanging man candlestick pattern. The long lower shadow of the candlestick is over two times longer than the head of the candlestick. You can see that it looks like a man hanging from the gallows. After an uptrend, this pattern typically indicates a reversal to the downside. The hanging man indicates that sellers are beginning to take control of much of the daily price action. Price recovers by the end of the day but the bears are flexing their muscles under the surface. Look for potential of follow-through from the hanging man pattern which would be a substantive drop in the SPX price.
The 150-day MA at 2747 continues stumbling sideways and will not tip its hand. The stock market remains in a cyclical bear market by this metric. The SPX remains above the 12-month MA at 2748 so the stock market is in a cyclical bull market by this metric. One of these two parameters are wrong and the solution will tell you the path ahead for the stock market on a short and intermediate term basis. Bulls obviously need the 150 to slope higher climbing above 2747 while the bears need to push the SPX below 2730. One of them will flinch.
The NYA is at 12701 above its key 40-week MA at 12485 which signals a cyclical bull market by this metric. The NYA 40-week and SPX 12-week dictate the overall stock market pattern and the bulls have won back control, however, bulls still need the 150-day to cooperate. If the 150 begins sloping down again, the SPX and NYA will both drop and may easily slip back into the cyclical bear.
The overbot conditions in the SPX daily chart above are agreeable to a pullback. The red rising wedge is ugly and ominous. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The SPX still needs to show respect to the 20-day MA at 2757. The ADX remains subdued at 22 so despite a two-month pump by the happy US-China trade talk and global central banker collusion, the stock market is NOT in a strong trend. Isn't that something? The last strong trend was the downside trend during Q4 (purple box). You can see Friday's buying volume was nowhere near the selling pressure on Thursday (volume candlesticks).
The Aroon remains on a positive cross reflecting the ongoing bullish joy. Looking back at a potential fractal to gauge the path ahead, the Aroon green line is at the same level as back in late September. That's interesting. The green Aroon line is at the exact same level as the top in the stock market before the Q4 bloodbath began. Six days after this point in time, the Aroon negative cross occurred so this fractal may repeat now with the SPX stutter-stepping for a day or three then rolling sharply over to the downside.
The same broken-record continues about the uber low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios (complacency and fearlessness in markets) that have yet to be rectified. Ditto the elevated NYMO. The SPX needs to retreat to remedy this euphoric party atmosphere in the stock market currently.
The expectation is that the top is in now for the daily basis. The new moon peaks on hump day this week at 11:03 AM EST. Equities are typically weak moving through the new moon each month so this provides a favorable tail wind for the bears. Covert military raids occur during the new moon periods by forces with superior night-vision technology. Earthquake and volcanic activity may increase mid to late week into next weekend since the Earth and Moon will be at a gravitational inflection point.
Stocks should trend lower in the daily basis for either a few days or perhaps a week or two. It depends on how much happy talk occurs, if any, and how this never-ending happy talk is perceived over time. The trade deal can be hyped but there comes a time where King Donny has to show some results. Ditto the central bankers. It is very surprising that there is trust in the central banks considering the about-face that occurs over the last few months. It is obvious the bozo's are clueless and just making it up as they go along. Humorously, the blind (investors and money managers) are following the blind (central bankers).
The Federal Reserve succeeded in making the wealthy filthy rich over the last decade while screwing common Americans that suffer through low wages and lack of opportunities. Only one-half of the US owns stocks and only the wealthy own the large equity portfolios. This is how the crony capitalism system works in America. There will be payback when the recession begins. A rich versus poor class war is coming to a city near you. Make sure you are prepared.
The SPX weekly chart displays long and strong strength for the MACD, histogram and money flow so the SPX has more juice on the weekly basis. Thus, after the weakness in the daily time frame plays out as explained above, say for a few days or week or two, the SPX will likely come all the way back up for more matching and new price highs say late this month and early April. This action will produce a more substantive top, on a weekly basis, say, beginning late March or early April.
So the SPX may shed, say, a 100 handles over coming days, say into mid-March, and then come back up say 100 to 180 handles off that bottom during late March into early April, and then this will be an important top on the weekly basis. A guess would be for a significant top at 2880-ish say early April which then leads to extended multi-week, perhaps multi-month, downside for the stock market. An optional scenario is for the stock market to simply head lower and establish a multi-week sickness at anytime going forward (the bullish trade talk and central banker hype is over-the-top this year thus far). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added at 9:25 AM EST on Monday, 3/4/19: Trading in the regular session is minutes away. 15 minutes before the US futures began trading last evening, more happy trade talk is announced with the US and China supposedly on the verge of a deal. S&P futures popped +14 out of the gate and remained elevated overnight. Do you think the stock market is a rigged casino? Volatility began trading at 3 AM EST and also rises. Volatility and futures are both up so one of them is wrong. S&P futures run out of gas as the morning plays out only up by a few points. The Trump administration runs to a microphone and announces more happy trade talk news so S&P futures pop +12 into the opening bell.
Note Added at 9:35 AM EST on Monday, 3/4/19: The stock market ramps higher as the new week of trading is underway. The SPX pops to 2817 and trades up 12 points at 2815. The negative divergence remains on the daily chart although the RSI is threatening to pop higher due to the happy trade talk overnight. If the RSI prints a higher high than those February highs, that behavior will likely extend the top in this daily time frame for another day or two. For now, the SPX daily chart continues to appear out of gas and should top out. Price prints a new high but the indicators are in negative divergence (although the RSI may try to create further juice). The happy trade talk creates the upside momo. The SPX 2-hour chart is neggie d across all indicators over the last week, however, the gap-up move this morning creates near-term thrust. Thus, it may take a couple of 2-hour candlesticks to place the SPX top and begin the drop. So stocks may top out in 2 to 6 hours, which would be today or first thing in the morning tomorrow. The new moon peaks Wednesday morning at 11:03 AM EST, which is Ash Wednesday, and stocks typically favor the bears through the new moon each month. The TICK machine hit +1100 after the opening bell verifying the euphoric bullish joy and stock market ecstasy.
Note Added at 9:49 AM EST on Monday, 3/4/19: The SPX is at 2815 and VIX at 13.52. Volatility slips a hair negative on the session thus, stocks were correct and the VIX was wrong. Volatility now drops consistent with stocks moving higher. Is this the trend today or is it a fake-out move?
Note Added at 9:51 AM EST on Monday, 3/4/19: Whoopsies daisies. The SPX is at 2811 and VIX at 13.63. Volatility moves a hair positive. Both stocks and volatility are higher. One of them is wrong.
