SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart

The red lines show negative divergence developing for the S&P 500 weekly chart. Neggie d cannot occur until price takes out the late-January record highs but nonetheless the lagging indicators as compared to January is striking. There is near-term momentum with the RSI, MACD line and money flow trying to maintain an upward move in stocks.

Price tapped the upper standard deviation line very briefly three weeks ago and remains near the upper band. The SPX will likely venture towards the middle band, the 20-week MA, at 2735, and rising, in the weeks ahead.

The blue boxes show the earnings reporting seasons where the bulls clearly create upside in the stock market on the orchestrated beats. The brown circles show several weeks of distribution this year where the smart money is dumping off shares to the dumb money. When stocks pop one week, the next week Joe Sixpack runs into the stock market all hyped-up on news reports and the smart money hands the sucka some shares.

For the big rally the last few weeks, note that none of the volume candlesticks are stronger than the volume in early June at 2775-ish. Price may want to revisit this area. The last few weeks of volume has also not overcome the two strong selling week's volume in late June. This hints that the retail investor is likely caught up in the market hype and buying stocks afraid that he is missing the train leaving the station.

The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback going forward. The ADX was in a strong uptrend (purple box) late last year into early this year and the record top on 1/26/18, but that strong uptrend is no longer verified and has petered out with the ADX dropping to 22.3. Despite the big six-week advance in stocks, the trend is not strong.

The SPX is near its record high at 2873, only about 20 points away, so the euphoria and daily hype may take her there, much like AAPL last week where the $1 trillion valuation goal fed on itself and price migrated there. Overall, the expectation would be for stocks to stall in the weekly time frame and roll over going forward.

The new moon peaks on Saturday (as well as the Perseid meteor showers so get outside in the evening to watch the shooting stars), and stocks are typically bearish through the new moon each month. OpEx is next week so stocks may rally from Tuesday, 8/14, into a Wednesday, 8/15, high. Keystone's eclipse indicator points to a potential major top occurring in the stock market between 8/13 and 9/10. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The SPX floats higher to 2848 teasing the upper standard deviation band at 2850. Price may tag the 2850-281 level which opens the door to a retracement to the middle band, the 20-day MA, at 2814, and rising. The SPX matches the high from late July and you can see the universal negative divergence across all indicators (red lines) so the S&P 500 should run out of gas in this daily time frame. Price is extended above the moving averages and needs a mean reversion lower. Stochastics are overbot.

The ADX line is in the cellar at 11.82. This is very interesting because it says the uptrend is not a strong uptrend despite the big rally from late June and actually from the April bottom.

The chart hints at a double-top, or M top, in play with price likely wanting to target the 2814-2828 level. Stocks are very emotional and news-driven lately. Today, oil is goosed higher which creates the run higher in equities. Volatility is slapped lower to levels not seen since the late January early February time period. VIX is down to 11.28.

The SPX tags 2849 as this is typed continuing to tap on the upper band. Check that, now surging above 2850. Check that again. Price now tags the 2851 level with a HOD at 2851.13 officially tagging the upper standard deviation band. As long as the RSI and MACD line do not overtake the prior high, the expectation would be for stocks to top out in this daily time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart

The SPX 2-hour chart created a W pattern as July ended and August began. The base is 2800 and breakout level is 2822 so the upside target to satisfy the W pattern is 2844 (2822+22) which is now satisfied. Price is hugging the upper standard deviation pattern so it will need to return to the middle band, at a minimum, at 2822. The lower band at 2798 is also on the table.

The stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The RSI is not yet overbot so that door remains open and must be respected for the next couple-few hours. The red lines show negative divergence in play as price comes up to print the matching high from a couple weeks ago. The RSI and MACD line show a sliver of long and strong juice for today but over the last couple weeks or more are neggie d. The expectation would be for the S&P 500 to top out and roll over in the hours ahead and target the 2822-2828 level as an initial downside target. The SPX prints 2845 as this message is typed just before munchtime in the States.

Watch the Russell 2000 which will either punch up through the 20-day R or fail through the 50-day S. The SPX will move in sync with the RUT. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Daily Chart; Battle at the 20 and 50-Day MA's

Traders push the Russell 2000 small caps to and fro to begin the new week of trading. The bulls win if price pokes up through the 20-day MA overhead resistance at 1683. HOD is 1682. The bears win if price collapses below the 50-day MA support at 1674. LOD is 1672. The middle is noise. The broad stock market will likely follow the break-out, or break-down, direction of RUT. Price is at 1680. 

The bears sent price lower but could not create the failure through support. The bulls test the resistance but could not amass the oomph to push higher. The battle continues. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added at 12:21 AM EST: The RUT is teasing the break-out printing at 1683. The price action here is very important. Bulls must prove that they can take the stock market higher by punching up through the 20.

SSEC Shanghai Index (China) Weekly Chart; Bear Market

The Shanghai slips into a bear market. Price topped out in late January with other global markets at 3570-ish. A -20% drop off the top is 714 points or the 2856 level so China is in a bear market. The PBOC (China's central bank) has supported the 3K level the last few years so they will step in again and boost the index.The central bankers are the market.

Price fell out of the blue upward-sloping channel and then came up for the back kiss in March which then resulted in collapse and failure with the China bears cheering. Price then fell below the 200-week MA at 3165-ish in April, then back kissed this important moving average in May resulting in another successful bear test and collapse in price into a -10% correction and more.

The green lines show positive divergence across all indicators sans the MACD line. The RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to a bounce. Thus, the SSEC will likely bounce for a week or two to honor the possie d, but then price will retreat again to honor the weak and bleak outlook of the MACD line. At that time, say 2 or 3 weeks out, the MACD should turn possie d and then a more firm bounce will occur for a few weeks.

The ADX purple box shows that the downtrend is very strong. The monthly chart is trying to stabilize but exhibits a weak and bleak RSI so the SSEC will likely explore additional lows in the 2480-2700 range in the September-October time period. Of course the PBOC will be in the stock and currency markets trying to manipulate price like all the other filthy central bankers around the world. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

July Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-07 is Available from Amazon

The July publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-07 is available from Amazon.

The Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2018-08 for August is tentatively set for publication by Amazon on Saturday, 9/1/18.

USD US Dollar Index Weekly Chart; Battling at the 100 and 200-Week MA Resistance

The dollar keeps stumbling along and will be impacted by the US monthly jobs report this morning. Current price 95.06. Note the overhead resistance at the 100 and 200-week MA's at 95.31-95.39. If the dollar moves above here, and stays above, it will be on its way towards 97.

Price has an upward bias in choppy trading over the last few weeks with the 200-week resistance keeping the dollar in check. The RSI, histogram, stochastics and ROC are negatively diverged wanting to see a pullback in this weekly time frame. The stoch's are also overbot agreeable to a pullback. However, the MACD line remains sloping higher, long and strong, and will want another higher high in price after any near-term pullback.

It is a tricky call going forward, all you can do is watch how the chart develops over the next week or two. The RSI is neggie d over the last few weeks but is receiving some strength over the last couple weeks. Most importantly, the RSI did not reach overbot levels so the door is still open to this possibility. The MACD is long and strong so when price comes back up for higher highs, pay attention to the RSI. If the RSI overtakes the high from a few weeks ago, there will be several more weeks of dollar upside as the RSI seeks overbot territory.

The dollar will either top out say in a week or three (once the MACD rolls over and the RSI remains neggie d), or in about 4 to 6 weeks probably from the 96-97 range (if the RSI moves higher). The jury is out so there is no trade here. You have to wait a couple weeks to let the chart show its hand.

The ADX verifies that the downtrend in the dollar was very strong in late 2014 and the first half of 2015 but that petered out as price staggered choppy sideways into the start of 2016. Back then, in late December 2015 and early 2016, the Wall Street Einstein's proclaimed that the dollar will rise to 105 and higher but all were wrong. Keystone highlighted the neggie d back then and called the top in the dollar as 2016 began, which occurred.

Humorously, a year later, the same story played out. At the end of 2016 and early 2017, the Einstein's proclaimed that the dollar was guaranteed to hit 105 and higher with the majority of analysts calling for 110 and even a few predicting 120 in the near future; all were wrong again. All they had to do is look at the negative divergence on the chart; it was an easy call. Keystone called the top in the dollar again, which occurred.

USD plummeted in 2017 dropping into the falling green wedge (a bullish pattern) and price chopped sideways printing matching lows for several weeks. The green lines show the positive divergence that occurred so you knew the dollar would rally. Again, at the start of this year, the Einstein analysts proclaimed that the dollar would continue to fall and deteriorate; they were wrong again. Keystone called the bottom in the dollar due to the possie d this year, which occurred.

The ADX shows that the downtrend was very strong in the back half of 2017 and start of 2018 but that strong downtrend petered out in April-May of this year. The dollar chops along through 93-95 for the last few weeks.

News bites are sending stocks, currencies and bonds to and fro each day and week. The charts are continual pricing in the ongoing drama with trade wars and such. As the chart sits, a pullback would be expected in the dollar for a week or two but then price will come back up to honor the long and strong MACD line, and that will likely be the top in the dollar. However, as stated above, when price comes back up say about 2 weeks out after a lull, it is key what the RSI does. If the RSI squeezes out a higher high than a few weeks ago, then the dollar will continue rallying to 96-97 and likely top out say in mid to late September. Watch those two blue circles.

Focus on that key overhead resistance at 95.31-95.39 as stated above, that will tell you a lot going forward. The dollar has tagged the upper standard deviation band and needs to show respect to the middle band, at a minimum, at 92.73, and rising, sometime over the next few weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NDX Nasdaq 100 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

The COMPQ and NDX charts, Nazzy Composite and Nazzy 100, respectively, are set up the same as the NDX monthly chart above. The stock market is in its final throes on the monthly basis printing a historic top as this year plays out.

Price prints new all-time highs and the red lines show negative divergence across all indicators except for the MACD line. The price pattern exhibits an ominous rising wedge, the RSI, stochastics and money flow are overbot, and price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion, all bearish indications. 

The MACD line is long and strong, however, wanting another all-time high after a pull back occurs in the monthly time frame. The ADX is in a strong uptrend so this will have to roll over to signal that the epic top is at hand. Keystone has been explaining the long-term topping process this year and we are getting very close.

The upper band violation demands that price show respect to the middle band, at a minimum, which is also the 20-month MA at 6268, and the lower band at 4958 is also on the table. It would not be a surprise in the least that the NDX would be at 6000-6300 in January-May.

The upside trend was strong in 2014 into the stock market top in 2015, but the filthy and corrupt central bankers stepped in to save the day creating that Tweezer Bottom in early 2016. The central bankers are the market. If you do not understand this simple fact, you are a fool and will serve as one of the bagholder's in the future.

The end game is coming for the stock market, all you can do is keep monitoring the charts. Focus on that MACD line. It is over for the stock market when the MACD line goes neggie d.

The negative divergence for the indicators will spank price lower over the next month or two but price will likely recover back to the current highs due to the long and strong MACD line. It is extremely likely that when price comes back up, say a couple months out in the September-November time frame, after a selloff, the MACD line will go neggie d and that will be THE top for the stock market. The long near-10-year rally will die and these prices will likely not be seen for many years to come.

Since the NDX has been pumped higher by the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet (Google)), the chart tells you that the epic tops are also forming in these stocks during the weeks and couple-few months ahead. Plan accordingly. It will not be surprising at all to see the NDX in the 4000 to 5500 range in 2019-2021. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Double -Top; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation

The SPX monthly chart is nasty laying out the story for an epic long-term stock market top ahead. Price is coming up for a double-top, or M top. The high currently is 2830. The all-time record high is 2873. The red lines for the indicators are universally negatively sloping but technically are not in negative divergence unless price prints the matching high which is another 43 handles.

Keystone has been explaining the long-term topping process for the last few months waiting for the charts to provide the official signal. It is very near. The COMPQ, NDX and RUT display long and strong MACD lines which will need to play out for a couple-three months to create the epic multi-month and multi-year tops. It is very likely that the stock market is in its final throes and will top out over the next one to four months, say now into January. It may come sooner rather than later.

The upper band violation demands that price show respect to the middle band, at a minimum, which is also the 20-month MA at 2574, and the lower band at 2268 is also on the table. It would not be a surprise in the least that the SPX would be at 2500-2600 in January-May. The blue circles show that about two years occurred before price showed respect to the middle band and we are currently playing out a similar pattern.

The SPX is overbot and price is above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion going forward. The ADX purple boxes show that the late 2008-2009 crash was a strong downtrend. The stock market was saved by former Fed Chairman Bernanke that performed the bidding of the wealthy. The stock market had to be saved to protect the wealthy Americans so he stepped in to stop the slide in March 2009 with QE1. The strong downtrend was stopped and the rich danced with glee as their losses recovered and the stock market rallies for years hence rewarding those with huge stock portfolios. America is a corrupt crony capitalism system there is nothing that can be done about that.

The upside trend was strong in 2014 into early 2015, but in May 2015 Keystone called the long-term top, which occurred, and the ADX retreated verifying the loss of the strong upward trend. But alas, the filthy central bankers stepped in again to save the day creating that Tweezer Bottom in early 2016. The central bankers are the market. If you do not understand this simple fact, you simply are not paying attention.

The strong upside trend reappears late last year after the ADX rallies higher and the strong upside trend remains. This will likely roll over as the next few months play out. The end game is coming, all you can do is keep monitoring the charts. Focus on that MACD line. If the S&P 500 prints a new all-time high above 2873, and the MACD line remains negatively diverged as compared to the January high, it is over for the stock market and these current highs will likely not be seen for years to come. In 2020 and 2021, or sooner, it is very realistic that the SPX will be in the 1800-2200 range. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

AAPL Apple 3-Minute Chart; Apple is First US Company to Cross the $1 Trillion Market Cap Valuation

At 11:48 AM EST, minutes after the European close, foreign traders rush into US markets pumping Apple higher. Bingo. AAPL is up +2.7% to 207.05 the first US company to cross the $1 trillion market cap threshold at $1.004 trillion. Apple beat Amazon in the race to $1 trillion. PetroChina had hit the $1 trillion market cap number in the past and then hastily retreated.

At 4 PM EST, Apple finishes the day up +2.9% to 207.39 closing above the $1 trillion market cap so it overtook the level intraday and remained above through the bell. Analyst Gene Munster continues touting more upside for AAPL going forward.

Note the blue ascending triangle pattern. The vertical side is 1.6 dollars. When price breaks out above 207 the target for the ascending triangle is 208.60 (207+1.6). AAPL prints the HOD at 208.38 close enough for government work. AAPL may have a tinge more juice to exactly honor the triangle. Traders are buying with both fists so the bulls won the earnings decision on Tuesday afternoon. The charts are pricing in the euphoria. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.