Price has an upward bias in choppy trading over the last few weeks with the 200-week resistance keeping the dollar in check. The RSI, histogram, stochastics and ROC are negatively diverged wanting to see a pullback in this weekly time frame. The stoch's are also overbot agreeable to a pullback. However, the MACD line remains sloping higher, long and strong, and will want another higher high in price after any near-term pullback.
It is a tricky call going forward, all you can do is watch how the chart develops over the next week or two. The RSI is neggie d over the last few weeks but is receiving some strength over the last couple weeks. Most importantly, the RSI did not reach overbot levels so the door is still open to this possibility. The MACD is long and strong so when price comes back up for higher highs, pay attention to the RSI. If the RSI overtakes the high from a few weeks ago, there will be several more weeks of dollar upside as the RSI seeks overbot territory.
The dollar will either top out say in a week or three (once the MACD rolls over and the RSI remains neggie d), or in about 4 to 6 weeks probably from the 96-97 range (if the RSI moves higher). The jury is out so there is no trade here. You have to wait a couple weeks to let the chart show its hand.
The ADX verifies that the downtrend in the dollar was very strong in late 2014 and the first half of 2015 but that petered out as price staggered choppy sideways into the start of 2016. Back then, in late December 2015 and early 2016, the Wall Street Einstein's proclaimed that the dollar will rise to 105 and higher but all were wrong. Keystone highlighted the neggie d back then and called the top in the dollar as 2016 began, which occurred.
Humorously, a year later, the same story played out. At the end of 2016 and early 2017, the Einstein's proclaimed that the dollar was guaranteed to hit 105 and higher with the majority of analysts calling for 110 and even a few predicting 120 in the near future; all were wrong again. All they had to do is look at the negative divergence on the chart; it was an easy call. Keystone called the top in the dollar again, which occurred.
USD plummeted in 2017 dropping into the falling green wedge (a bullish pattern) and price chopped sideways printing matching lows for several weeks. The green lines show the positive divergence that occurred so you knew the dollar would rally. Again, at the start of this year, the Einstein analysts proclaimed that the dollar would continue to fall and deteriorate; they were wrong again. Keystone called the bottom in the dollar due to the possie d this year, which occurred.
The ADX shows that the downtrend was very strong in the back half of 2017 and start of 2018 but that strong downtrend petered out in April-May of this year. The dollar chops along through 93-95 for the last few weeks.
News bites are sending stocks, currencies and bonds to and fro each day and week. The charts are continual pricing in the ongoing drama with trade wars and such. As the chart sits, a pullback would be expected in the dollar for a week or two but then price will come back up to honor the long and strong MACD line, and that will likely be the top in the dollar. However, as stated above, when price comes back up say about 2 weeks out after a lull, it is key what the RSI does. If the RSI squeezes out a higher high than a few weeks ago, then the dollar will continue rallying to 96-97 and likely top out say in mid to late September. Watch those two blue circles.
Focus on that key overhead resistance at 95.31-95.39 as stated above, that will tell you a lot going forward. The dollar has tagged the upper standard deviation band and needs to show respect to the middle band, at a minimum, at 92.73, and rising, sometime over the next few weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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