AAPL Apple Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended Above MA's

The Apple chart is set up with negative divergence as price makes matching or higher record highs. It is rarely wise to short stocks with momo but AAPL is setting up for a much-needed pull back. In this daily basis, AAPL can likely be shorted at this level and higher. The upper band at 141.28 may receive another touch and as long as the negative divergence (red lines) remain in play, price should roll over to the downside in this daily basis and lose a few percent. Price needs to back kiss the middle standard deviation band which is also the 20-day MA at 135 and rising.

The Apple weekly chart remains long and strong with the MACD line and the RSI open for another high, so on a weekly basis, AAPL will likely come back up for more matching or higher highs say 2 to 5 weeks out. The monthly chart is sick with universal negative divergence hinting that a multi-year top is on the table and likely to print say in April or May. Interestingly, for decades, Warren Buffett said he would never buy tech stocks since he does not understand them but he has doubled his position in AAPL this year and is a huge stockholder in the tech giant. Many  traders worship at Buffett's altar and have followed him into his long-term bullish trade but they may be following him to the gallows.

Price gapped-up after the last earnings release and is now on an island above 127. When price retreats, it may fall back down through the gap from 127 to 122 and lower printing an island reversal pattern. Otherwise, price may simply retreat slowly in the weeks and months ahead and simply fill that gap at 122-127 that is big enough to drive a truck through.

Thus, price should receive a spankdown in the daily time frame after a top this week; say, down for a few days or week or two. Then price will likely recover and print more matching or higher highs, say, as this month ends and April begins with a multi-year top printing, say, in April or May. Come summer and Fall, folks may be knocking on Warren's door asking what to do as price rolls over and may not be back up to the record highs for several years.

So, if adventurous, you can short AAPL for a quickie down trade, but then do not stick around since the weekly chart wants price to come back up again. Watch the weekly chart for the RSI and MACD line to go neggie d and that will be likely be THE top, say in April. Keystone can keep an eye on it and will post the charts as the top develops. Keystone does not have any position in AAPL currently. Do not buy Apple as a long term hold. If you have it as a LTBH and are bragging to your friends about all the money you made, it is likely prudent to begin taking profits scaling out in stages over the next month and stay out for a few months to see what happens. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UAA Under Armour Weekly Chart; Oversold; Positive Divergence Developing; Lower Band Violation; Price Extended to the Downside

You cannot go out anywhere in public without seeing someone sporting at-leisure sportswear with the "UA" logo. The at-leisure trend over the last several years, where people go out in public wearing sporting clothes, yoga pants and sports team shirts is fading. NKE, LULU and UAA dominate the sales in the at-leisure segment. Denim is once again gaining in popularity so people must be getting sick of walking around in the sportswear-type garb especially when they are 50 pounds overweight sporting pot-belly's. There should be a law against certain people wearing spandex. 

There have been many bullish traders trying to catch the Under Armour falling knife; their hands are bloody and they have lost fingers trying to play the long side. The crash five weeks ago annihilated investors; many were carried off the exchange floor head-first on stretchers.

The weekly and daily charts are setting up with possie d (green lines) sans the MACD line. The RSI, stochastics and money flow are oversold. Price has violated the lower standard deviation band so a move back to the middle band at 28.50 and falling is in play. UAA is extended below its moving averages requiring a mean reversion higher. All these parameters are bullish except for the MACD line.

Price moves steadily through the downward-sloping blue channel for the last two years and then collapsed below the bottom rail five weeks ago. The expectation would be for UAA to bounce but the weak and bleak MACD line wants one more matching or lower price low to print on the weekly basis, thus a jog move may be in play with one week up, then one week down, then up and away (if the MACD line positively diverges to join the other green lines).

The UAA monthly chart is ugly. It is likely that on a monthly basis, lower lows will occur with price thus, any long-side recovery on the weekly basis will probably peter away after it plays out allowing more negativity to begin. The 200-week MA that was in a nice long-term uptrend is flattening and potentially rolling over which points to a sick stock for many months ahead.

The expectation would be for a bounce now in UAA but after a few days or week or so it will likely drop again down to the current lows one more time, play around there for a week, then, if the MACD line is possie d, it will be all systems go for an up move on the weekly basis for a few weeks or month or so. A reasonable expectation would be for UAA to print at 24-27 in April or May but then weaken again according to the monthly chart. Keystone has no position in Under Armour but will likely buy this week. If there is a sharp move higher, that trade may be exited, and then wait for price to come back down for the MACD line to set up properly, then go in long again and ride that move up that may last into later this month and into April.

UAA is not a long-term buy and hold it is only a trading stock and this trade is a dangerous and speculative trade. In general, Keystone will likely buy a little this week, then a little more next week, then a little more the week after that then completely exit the stock in April. It will not be surprising to see UAA pop +10% or more over the next few weeks, perhaps a lot more if a short-covering rally kicks into gear. The knife-catchers may give up which further indicates a good time to buy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

February Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics 2017-02 is Available from Amazon; Stocks are Melting Up; All-Time Highs; SPX 2372; INDU 20851; COMPQ 5862; NDX 5348; RUT 1408; NYA 11558; Trump Promises Lower Taxes; Huge Infrastructure Spending and Reduced Regulations; Fed Touting Rate Hike for 3/15/17; Trump-Russia Connection?; France Presidential Election Drama; Bitcoin 1200

The February Publication of the Daily Chronology of Global Markets andWorld Economics 2017-02 is available through Amazon. The epic market action continues with more new all-time stock market highs. The one-half of the United States that own stocks are joyous day after day while the other half of the United States struggles through eight years of high unemployment and debt. The gap between rich and poor is the widest in five decades.

February’s Cover Highlights;

STOCKS ARE MELTING UP

ALL-TIME HIGHS; SPX 2372, INDU 20851, COMPQ 5862, NDX 5348, RUT 1408, NYA 11558

TRUMP PROMISES LOWER TAXES, HUGE INFASTRUCTURE SPENDING AND REDUCED REGULATIONS

FED TOUTING RATE HIKE FOR 3/15/17

TRUMP-RUSSIA CONNECTION?

FRANCE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DRAMA

BICOIN 1200

The chronology describes the epic market, political and economic events as they occur in real-time. The stock market continues melting up on promises from President Trump for lower taxes, huge infrastructures spending and reduced regulations.

President Trump is embroiled in a controversy that he and his staff had contact with Russians before the election but there is no proof this occurred.

The global populism movement continues with elections approaching in the Netherlands and France. Le Pen and Macron are the front runners in the France presidential election race. Bitcoin approaches 1200 and rises above. In early March, bitcoin price surpasses the gold price.

The chronology explains the reaction in stocks, bonds and currencies to key events and economic data releases. If you are trying to make sense of the markets this is the resource for you. No other publication exists where the stock, bond and currency moves are detailed and explained as world events take place in real-time. You can re-live the real-time price moves and excitement in markets for any past event including Brexit, the US election, economic data releases, Fed meetings, etc...

The chronology records economic history preventing revisionist tampering in future years. Analyst and strategist quotes and words are recorded in the chronology so credit or disdain can be handed out in the future. If a multi-year top is printing, the chronology serves as the most accurate accounting of the stock market topping process ever recorded in economic and market history. The chronology is the most reliable and easy to understand source for explaining global markets. The chronology is cheap and very easy to read and avoids using fancy ten-dollar college words.

As always, all monthly publications of the Daily Chronology of GlobalMarkets and World Economics are available from the links in the margins of the K E Stone blog sites or simply searching on Amazon or Google. The monthly publication contains updated information not posted on the Keystone the Scribe web site as well as clarifications, edits and refinements to the ongoing daily blog text.

We are living through historic stock market and economic times. The daily chronology is the most accurate accounting on how the stock market tops and bottoms occur in real-time. The monthly publications are compatible with any electronic device and include an extensive Business Acronym List and Ticker Symbol List. The Acronym List is the most comprehensive business-related acronym list available on the internet. The chronology is not available in hard copy and only distributed around the world electronically.

The KE Stone Series of blogs are viewed by 100's of thousands of people around the globe each month including money managers, strategists, analysts, traders, investors, teachers, students, market historians, economists, current event enthusiasts, hedge fund managers, political junkies, futurists and folks that truly want to understand how the world's economic systems and markets function.

All readers should support the KE Stone family of blogs so more information, articles, stories, market and economic insight, charts and technical analysis can be provided. The blogs aid charities and will only continue if broadly supported by the thousands of daily users.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant, flips into the bear camp at SPX 2379. GTX is under the bull-bear line in the sand at 2367 currently at 2361 favoring bears. VIX is below the bull-bear line in the sand at 12.84 currently at 11.31 favoring bulls. Stocks should stagger sideways, like a drunk in Times Square, until either commodities turn bullish or volatility bearish. Bears need VIX above 12.84. Bulls need GTX above 2367. As always, stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side. More information is found at Keybot's site;

Keybot theQuant

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Let's drill down into a shorter time frame to see what price is doing. Stocks receive an upside bump after President Trump's Tuesday night speech. Market participants are developing more confidence in the president as he assumes a more responsible, stoic and leadership posture ditching his bloviating braggadocio carnival clown personality. Traders remain excited about the president's promises for huge infrastructure spending, lower taxes and less regulation.

The price spike high is above the upper standard deviation bands so the middle band at 2373 and rising is in play. As price made the new high (thin blue line), the RSI is cooked with neggie d. Ditto the histogram, stoch's and ROC. The MACD line is also negatively diverged over the last couple weeks but there is the tiniest sliver of upside juice available (tiny green line). So the SPX may want to come up one more time to a matching high at 2400 then roll over. The other outcome would be the SPX simply continuing to drop from here in the 2-hour time frame.

The daily chart is open for one more high perhaps tomorrow and also on the verge of rolling over (see previous chart). Thus, stocks will likely either roll over from here or receive another boost tomorrow to 2400-ish, then roll over. Bears need VIX above 12.86 to create serious selling but the central bankers maintain their jack boots on the neck of volatility for the last 8 years. Price is on an island above SPX 2380 so an island reversal pattern may be in play once price begins to retreat. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

The S&P 500 has gone parabolic in recent days. President Trump keeps touting a huge $1 trillion infrastructure package coming as well as drastically lower taxes and reduced regulations. At the same time, the Fed is trying to instill confidence in markets by touting a rate hike in 13 days due to an expanding and robust economy.

Charts can only price in everything known up to the minute; they cannot predict sudden news events and 'The Donald' hit a homerun on Tuesday night with his speech and the charts are pricing in the new found joy. Trump finally looked very presidential and this is creating comfort in the orange-headed showman's leadership. The last look at the daily chart right before the Tuesday night speech predicted down. The only thing that could stop the technicals was happy news from the Fed or the president and both barrels are fired at the bears. So charts needed a little time to absorb the latest euphoric headlines.

Look at how price spiked up, gapping up, to tag the upper standard deviation band. The middle band at 2339, and rising is firmly on the table and also the lower band at 2270 and rising. The 20-day MA is 2339, the same as the middle deviation band, and will need back kissed. The sneaky bulls pushed the RSI to another high when price printed the high, ditto the MACD line, so there may be one more jog move in play, down, up, down, on this daily basis, before she rolls over. The histogram, stochastics and money flow are in negative divergence wanting price to drop now which creates today's sogginess in the stock market.

Price is extended above the moving averages and needs a mean reversion. The expectation remains for lower prices ahead only now from a higher high after the orgy rally yesterday. Today may stay down to satisfy the histo, stoch's and money flow, but then price should come up again to the highs, say 2400-ish, tomorrow. When the matching price high occurs, the RSI and MACD line should be flat to negatively diverged which will lock in the top and begin the rollover to the downside.

The market action is historic. The price action is epic and very atypical. If you are watching markets for the first time, understand that this type of action is not the norm. Markets remain in uncharted territory after 8 years of obscene central banker Keynesian spending. No one knows how the game ends since no one that was trading in the 1930's is still living.

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. GTX (commodiites) are key at 2367 and VIX (volatility) at 12.86. GTX is at 2365 now in the bear camp creating weakness in stocks today. VIX is at 11.96 remaining in the bull camp. Market bears got nothing until VIX moves above 12.86; you will notice dramatic selling in stocks when this occurs. If the SPX drops under 2380, now at 2385, Keybot will likely flip short. If GTX moves back above 2367, the bulls will begin running stocks higher to new all-time highs again. The drama in the markets continues; it is difficult to keep up with all the theatrics. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UST2Y US 2-Year Treasury Note Yield Chart at 2009 Levels

The UST2Y 2-year yield chart shows yield now at levels not seen since 2009. This morning the 2-year yield is up to 1.32%. The 2-year rises as the expectations for a Fed rate hike on 3/15/17 increase. The Fed heads have been out in force touting a rate hike in 13 days. The Fed Funds futures went from only a 30% chance of a hike as of last Friday to a 86% chance of a hike now. Chair Yellen wanted the 3/15/17 to be a live meeting so she receives this in spades. Yellen had better provide the rate hike that her henchmen are touting or the Fed, and Yellen, will lose credibility. Yellen may not have wanted the chances for a hike to spike near 90%, which means it is a done deal, but she had her surrogates tout hawkishness and now the bond traders are shoving it down her throat. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite Index Daily Chart; New All-Time Record Highs; Price Tags the Flash Spike High from December

Yesterday, 3/1/17, the NYA prints a new all-time record high at 11687.07 and new all-time closing high at 11661.22. If you recall, the NYSE Composite flash spiked over +5% on 12/27/16 to 11688.45. This number was expunged from the record and swept under the rug but Keystone recorded it since he knew the Wall Street thieves would bring the NYA up to this price again, and they did 38 days later (a Fibonacci number). The market is crooked. The machines run the show. The "Flash Crashes, Fat Fingers and Computer Glitches, Oh My!" ebook, available from Amazon and highlighted in the right margin, describes the 12/27/17 flash spike. The only people aware of such nefarious activity are those that follow this blog. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

INDU Dow Jones Industrials 2-Minute Chart; Dow Prints Above 21K First Time in History

The Dow prints above 21K for the first time in history. The screen printers are busy printing Dow 22K and Dow 23K hats; they may need them next week! Yesterday, on 3/1/17, the Dow prints 21169.11 the highest all-time level ever and 21115.55 the all-time closing high. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Minute Chart; SPX Prints Above 2400 First Time in History

Yesterday, on 3/1/17, the first day of March, the S&P 500 prints above 2400 to 2400.98 the all-time highest level in history. The closing high occurs at 2395.96. President Trump delivers a well-received speech on Tuesday night with plenty of goodies promised such as huge $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, drastically lower taxes and reduced regulations. At the same time, the Fed heads have set markets up to receive a rate hike in 13 days on 3/15/17. Investors believe that the Fed is showing confidence that the economy is recovering and strong since rate hikes are on the come which feeds into more enthusiasm and upside in stocks. The bears are running for their lives and the short-covering creates more upside fuel. The central bankers, and now the president, are the market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.